Essays on the Interaction Between Risk and Market Structure in Electricity Markets

<p>This thesis proposes a new framework to jointly analyze electricity spot market and hedging decisions in an oligopolistic setup. Firstly, we find that, when exogenous, both quantity of electricity hedged by contract and vertical integration decrease the equilibrium spot price. Secondly, we use a hybrid approach and show that market structure can affect a generator’s decision to vertically integrate under uncertain demand. Thirdly, we consider uncertainty in costs and demand and show that concentration in the spot market, for a given hedge quantum, can increase forward prices and affect the slope of the forward curve. Our empirical results indicate that the model fits the New Zealand electricity market well. This evidence that market structure and hedging decisions are closely connected is further explored in a three period equilibrium model for the spot and forward markets, where hedging occurs prior to the submission of supply curves. Taking into account demand-side and supply-side uncertainties, we find that when hedging is endogenous, hedging quantities are affected by spot market parameters, but market power is itself mitigated in the conscious hedging choice of generators. We also show that forward markets can coexist with highly vertically integrated markets. The importance of our results is general. Our models can be used by policy makers to analyze investment and forward price implications of changes in the spot market structure. Our results also indicate that electricity generators, in equilibrium, face a trade-off between market power and hedging. Given that it is socially beneficial to manage risk, the equilibrium impact of their choices on welfare should not be considered in isolation by competition authorities.</p>

Essays on the Interaction Between Risk and Market Structure in Electricity Markets

<p>This thesis proposes a new framework to jointly analyze electricity spot market and hedging decisions in an oligopolistic setup. Firstly, we find that, when exogenous, both quantity of electricity hedged by contract and vertical integration decrease the equilibrium spot price. Secondly, we use a hybrid approach and show that market structure can affect a generator’s decision to vertically integrate under uncertain demand. Thirdly, we consider uncertainty in costs and demand and show that concentration in the spot market, for a given hedge quantum, can increase forward prices and affect the slope of the forward curve. Our empirical results indicate that the model fits the New Zealand electricity market well. This evidence that market structure and hedging decisions are closely connected is further explored in a three period equilibrium model for the spot and forward markets, where hedging occurs prior to the submission of supply curves. Taking into account demand-side and supply-side uncertainties, we find that when hedging is endogenous, hedging quantities are affected by spot market parameters, but market power is itself mitigated in the conscious hedging choice of generators. We also show that forward markets can coexist with highly vertically integrated markets. The importance of our results is general. Our models can be used by policy makers to analyze investment and forward price implications of changes in the spot market structure. Our results also indicate that electricity generators, in equilibrium, face a trade-off between market power and hedging. Given that it is socially beneficial to manage risk, the equilibrium impact of their choices on welfare should not be considered in isolation by competition authorities.</p>

Description of Colombian Electricity Pricing Derivatives

Electricity markets are becoming a popular field of research amongst academics because of the lack of appropriate models for describing electricity price behavior and pricing derivatives instruments. Models for price dynamics must consider seasonality and spiky behavior of jumps which seem hard to model by standard jump process. Without good models for electricity price dynamics, it is difficult to think about good models for futures, forward, swaps and option pricing. In this paper we attempt to introduce an algorithm for pricing derivatives to intuition from Colombian electricity market. The main ambition of this study is fourfold: 1) First we begin our approach through to simple stochastic models for electricity pricing. 2) Next, we derive analytical formulas for prices of electricity derivatives with different derivatives tools. 3) Then we extent short of the model for price risk in the electricity spot market 4) Finally we construct the model estimation under the physical measures for Colombian electricity market. And this paper end with conclusion.

Operation Strategy of Electricity Retailers Based on Energy Storage System to Improve Comprehensive Profitability in China’s Electricity Spot Market

Due to the development of China’s electricity spot market, the peak-shifting operation modes of energy storage devices (ESD) are not able to adapt to real-time fluctuating electricity prices. The settlement mode of the spot market aggravates the negative impact of deviation assessments on the cost of electricity retailers. This article introduces the settlement rules of China’s power spot market. According to the electricity cost settlement process and the assessment methods, this paper proposes a comprehensive electricity cost optimization algorithm that optimizes day-ahead market (DA) electricity cost, real-time market (RT) electricity cost and deviation assessment through ESD control. According to the trial electricity price data of the power trading center in Guangdong province (China), many typical load curves and different deviation assessment policies, the algorithm calculates DA electricity cost, RT electricity cost and deviation assessment cost by utilizing a comprehensive electricity cost optimization algorithm. Compared with the original electricity cost and optimization cost, this method is proven to effectively save overall electricity costs under the spot market settlement system. Based on three different initial investment prices of ESD, this paper analyzes the economics of the ESD system and proves that ESD investment can be recovered within 5 years. Considering the small amounts of operating data in China’s power spot market, the algorithm generates random data according to characteristics of these data. Then, this paper verifies that the comprehensive electricity cost optimization algorithm remains reliable under random circumstances.