Modeling the Global Dynamic Contagion of COVID-19

The COVID-19 infections have profoundly and negatively impacted the whole world. Hence, we have modeled the dynamic spread of global COVID-19 infections with the connectedness approach based on the TVP-VAR model, using the data of confirmed COVID-19 cases during the period of March 23rd, 2020 to September 10th, 2021 in 18 countries. The results imply that, (i) the United States, the United Kingdom and Indonesia are global epidemic centers, among which the United States has the highest degree of the contagion of the COVID-19 infections, which is stable. South Korea, France and Italy are the main receiver of the contagion of the COVID-19 infections, and South Korea has been the most severely affected by the overseas epidemic; (ii) there is a negative correlation between the timeliness, effectiveness and mandatory nature of government policies and the risk of the associated countries COVID-19 epidemic affecting, as well as the magnitude of the net contagion of domestic COVID-19; (iii) the severity of domestic COVID-19 epidemics in the United States and Canada, Canada and Mexico, Indonesia and Canada is almost equivalent, especially for the United States, Canada and Mexico, whose domestic epidemics are with the same tendency; (iv) the COVID-19 epidemic has spread though not only the central divergence manner and chain mode of transmission, but also the way of feedback loop. Thus, more efforts should be made by the governments to enhance the pertinence and compulsion of their epidemic prevention policies and establish a systematic and efficient risk assessment mechanism for public health emergencies.

The Vicious Circle of Non-performing Assets: An introspection for Indian banks to ensure their profitability amidst COVID – 19 pandemic

The non performing assets (NPAs) or bad loans, as we understand generally, have always been one of the key challenges for Indian banks and financial institutions and they have been adversely affecting the sustainability of these financial service providers. While performing the basic function of extending credit in order to earn interest income, however, it is also important for these institutions to have an efficient and effective credit risk assessment mechanism in place, so that, a proper balance between profitability and sustainability is maintained. Credit scoring models are one of the most important components of credit risk assessment mechanism and banks and financial institutions of many developed countries have developed credit scoring models based on advanced technologies. On the contrary, most of the Indian banks are still dependent on the traditional way of developing credit scoring models, which might be a deterrent against ensuring safe credit policy amidst the COVID – 19 pandemic.

Risk Assessment and Management of Drug Inventory in Hospitals during COVID-19 Pandemic in Taiwan

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has caused the suspension of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) production in China, the source of the global largest medication supply chain, resulting in the potential risks of hospital insufficient drug stocks affecting clinical treatment. If all drug inventory of the hospital increased, the short-term drug shortage risk can be reduced, but the inventory costs will be increased. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to establish a risk assessment mechanism for inventory management of APIs from China, to identify the medical priorities affected by drug shortages, and to plan different countermeasures to achieve the best effect of inventory management. Methods In this study, the tables of "Incidence of Drug Shortage" and "Impact Level of Drug Shortage" related to the risk of drug inventory were developed, which were evaluated in four levels respectively, and "Drug Shortage Risk Assessment Matrix" was designed according to the probability of drug shortage and impact according to the model data of Reproductive Number (R0) value and pandemic prediction. Each drug requiring APIs from China was evaluated and ranked according to the hazard index, so as to increase the different inventory and to find alternatives. Results We have evaluated the inventory risk level of drugs requiring APIs from China through the risk assessment mechanism, and increased the different backup stock according to the levels. The total increasing purchase amount was NTD 4.85 million, which could reduce the stock cost by about 2/3 compared with NTD 14.61 million of the total inventories for three months. Conclusions The study shows that there are significant differences between scientific inventory management and general method during COVID-19 pandemic. It can provide a reliable reference for other hospitals to adjust drug stocks in the face of other emerging infectious diseases or major emergencies by using the innovative mechanism.

Research on the Application of Financial and Taxation Big Data in Enterprise Taxation Risk Management

At present, it is an important period for the comprehensive deepening of China’s economic system. Enterprises will generate a large amount of fiscal and taxation data in production. Traditional financial management methods no longer meet the needs of current social development. It is necessary to integrate big data and Internet of Things technology to make it clear and establish an effective risk assessment mechanism to ensure the stable development. The article will mainly discuss the application research of fiscal and taxation big data in enterprises taxation risk management.

Chemicals Migrating from Food Contact Materials: European Regulations, Characterization and Human Exposure (An Overview)

Food contact materials have high societal importance due to their influence on food quality and safety. In the food chain production, food matrix may interfere with many types of materials, particularly with food packaging. During the last decades, the concerns related to food packaging (especially plastics) and the migration of chemicals from food contact materials increased significantly, being affected by the nature and complexity of the food, the contact time and temperature, the type of food packaging material and the molecular size of the migrators. Some of these migrators are toxic and/or have endocrine disrupting activity. This overview reveals recent data (since 2015) about food contact materials as a source of food chemical contamination, their compliance in Europe, the analytical characterization of chemicals migrating from food contact materials as well the human exposure to such chemicals. There are mentioned the most recent scientific articles and experimental data on these topics, available from official, public reports or web sources. The major point in defining shortcomings in the current food contact risk assessment mechanism and legislation is that safety of food contact materials is currently less guaranteed due to different risk assessment, authorization processes across the Europe and their problematic enforcement.

Credit Organization Risk Assessment Technology

Credit, market, operational, interest rate, currency risk of credit organizations, liquidity risk, legal regulation of such risks have been analyzed in the study. A risk assessment mechanism has been developed, which includes the following steps: assessing the reliability of financial statements, assessing the value of own funds (capital) of credit organizations, analyzing the financial condition of an investor, and assessing the value of assets. The problems of analyzing banking risks at each stage have been identified. A practical implementation of the developed methodology for analyzing the bank’s risks has been carried out, which allowed the use of “adjustment schemes” by credit organizations. The most dangerous are the schemes for artificially "inflating" the capital base of credit organizations, overstating the quality of assets, and formally reducing the risks taken. The proposed methodology has been recommended to be used to improve the risk management system of credit organizations