Comparison of Sensitivity, Specificity and Accuracy of APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA Scoring Systems as Predictors

Aim: To compare the APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA scoring systems as predictors of mortality in ICU patients in terms of sensitivity, specificity and accuracy. Methodology: A prospective observational study. Intensive care unit from May 13, 2018 to September 15, 2021. For 1368 patients included in study, results for APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA were calculated with the worst values recorded. At the end of ICU stay, patient outcome was labelled as survivors and non-survivors. The cut off value for APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA was taken as 50% of the highest possible score, with <50% expected to survive and with ≥50% expected to die during their ICU stay. Cross tables were made against real outcome of the patients, and sensitivity, specificity and accuracy for APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA were calculated. Results: Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were 77.53%, 94.28% and 85.45% for APACHE II scoring system; 47.29%, 87.32%, and 66.23% for SAPS II scoring system; and 73.37%, 60.28%, and 67.18% for SOFA scoring system, respectively. Conclusion: Apache Ii scoring system has highest sensitivity, specificity and accuracy in mortality prediction in ICU patients as compared to SAPS II and SOFA scoring systems, with SAPS II being least sensitive and accurate. Keywords: Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Intensive care units (ICU), Mortality.

Performance of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II for Post-Cardiac Surgery Patients in Intensive Care Unit

Background: The aim of this study is to assess the performance of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score and Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II) on outcomes of patients with cardiac surgery and identify the cutoff values to provide a reference for early intervention.Methods: All data were extracted from MIMIC-III (Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III) database. Cutoff values were calculated by the receiver-operating characteristic curve and Youden indexes. Patients were grouped, respectively, according to the cutoff values of SOFA and SAPS II. A non-adjusted model and adjusted model were established to evaluate the prediction of risk. Comparison of clinical efficacy between two scoring systems was made by decision curve analysis (DCA). The primary outcomes of this study were in-hospital mortality, 28-day mortality, 90-day mortality, and 1-year mortality after cardiac surgery. The secondary outcomes included length of hospital stay and intensive care unit (ICU) stay and the incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI) within 7 days after ICU admission.Results: A total of 6,122 patients were collected and divided into the H-SOFA group (SOFA ≥ 7) and L-SOFA group (SOFA &lt; 7) or H-SAPS II group (SAPS II ≥ 43) and L-SAPS II group (SAPS II &lt; 43). In-hospital mortality, 28-day mortality, 90-day mortality, and 1-year mortality were higher, the length of hospital and ICU stay were longer in the H-SOFA group than in the L-SOFA group (p &lt; 0.05), while the incidence of AKI was not significantly different. In-hospital mortality, 28-day mortality, 90-day mortality, 1-year mortality, and the incidence of AKI were all significantly higher in the H-SAPS II group than in the L-SAPS II group (p &lt; 0.05). Hospital stay and ICU stay were longer in the H-SAPS II group than in the L-SAPS II group (p &lt; 0.05). According to DCA, the SAPS II scoring system had more net benefits on assessing the long-term mortality compared with the SOFA scoring system.Conclusion: Exceeding the cutoff values of SOFA and SAPS II scores could lead to increased mortality and extended length of ICU and hospital stay. The SAPS II scoring system had a better discriminative performance of 90-day mortality and 1-year mortality in post-cardiac surgery patients than the SOFA scoring system. Emphasizing the critical value of the scoring system is of significance for timely treatment.

Prognostic scores and early management of septic patients in the emergency department of a secondary hospital: results of a retrospective study

Background Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and other illness prognostic scores predict adverse outcomes in critical patients. Their validation as a decision-making tool in the emergency department (ED) of secondary hospitals is not well established. The aim of this study was to compare SOFA, NEWS2, APACHE II, and SAPS II scores as predictors of adverse outcomes and decision-making tool in ED. Methods Data of 121 patients (age 73 ± 10 years, 58% males, Charlson Comorbidity Index 5.7 ± 2.1) with a confirmed sepsis were included in a retrospective study between January 2017 and February 2020. Scores were computed within the first 24 h after admission. Primary outcome was the occurrence of either in-hospital death or mechanical ventilation within 7 days. Secondary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. Results Patients older than 64 years (elderly) represent 82% of sample. Primary and secondary outcomes occurred in 40 and 44%, respectively. Median 30-day survival time of dead patients was 4 days (interquartile range 1–11). The best predictive score based on the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) was SAPS II (0.823, 95% confidence interval, CI, 0.744–0.902), followed by APACHE II (0.762, 95% CI 0.673–0.850), NEWS2 (0.708, 95% CI 0.616–0.800), and SOFA (0.650, 95% CI 0.548–0.751). SAPS II cut-off of 49 showed the lowest false-positive rate (12, 95% CI 5–20) and the highest positive predictive value (80, 95% CI 68–92), whereas NEWS2 cut-off of 7 showed the lowest false-negative rate (10, 95% CI 2–19) and the highest negative predictive value (86, 95% CI 74–97). By combining NEWS2 and SAPS II cut-offs, we accurately classified 64% of patients. In survival analysis, SAPS II cut-off showed the highest difference in 30-day mortality (Hazards Ratio, HR, 5.24, 95% CI 2.99–9.21, P < 0.001). Best independent negative predictors of 30-day mortality were body temperature, mean arterial pressure, arterial oxygen saturation, and hematocrit levels. Positive predictors were male sex, heart rate and serum sodium concentration. Conclusions SAPS II is a good prognostic tool for discriminating high-risk patient suitable for sub-intensive/intensive care units, whereas NEWS2 for discriminating low-risk patients for low-intensive units. Our results should be limited to cohorts with a high prevalence of elderly or comorbidities.

Effectiveness of LODS, OASIS, and SAPS II to predict in-hospital mortality for intensive care patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction

The relationship between three scoring systems (LODS, OASIS, and SAPS II) and in-hospital mortality of intensive care patients with ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is currently inconclusive. The baseline data, LODS score, OASIS score, SAPS II score, and in-hospital prognosis of intensive care patients with STEMI were retrieved from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database. Propensity score matching analysis was performed to reduce bias. Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) were drawn for the three scoring systems, and comparisons between the areas under the ROC curves (AUC) were conducted. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to determine the net benefits of the three scoring systems. LODS and SAPS II were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality. For the study cohort, the AUCs of LODS, OASIS, SAPS II were 0.867, 0.827, and 0.894; after PSM, the AUCs of LODS, OASIS, SAPS II were 0.877, 0.821, and 0.881. A stratified analysis of the patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention/coronary artery bypass grafting (PCI/CABG) or not was conducted. In the PCI/CABG group, the AUCs of LODS, OASIS, SAPS II were 0.853, 0.825, and 0.867, while in the non-PCI/CABG group, the AUCs of LODS, OASIS, SAPS II were 0.857, 0.804, and 0.897. The results of the Z test suggest that the predictive value of LODS and SAPS II was not statistically different, but both were higher than OASIS. According to the DCA, the net clinical benefit of LODS was the greatest. LODS and SAPS II have excellent predictive value, and in most cases, both were higher than OASIS. With a more concise composition and greater clinical benefit, LODS may be a better predictor of in-hospital mortality for intensive care patients with STEMI.

Predicting Prolonged Length of ICU Stay through Machine Learning

This study aimed to construct machine learning (ML) models for predicting prolonged length of stay (pLOS) in intensive care units (ICU) among general ICU patients. A multicenter database called eICU (Collaborative Research Database) was used for model derivation and internal validation, and the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) III database was used for external validation. We used four different ML methods (random forest, support vector machine, deep learning, and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT)) to develop prediction models. The prediction performance of the four models were compared with the customized simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) II. The area under the receiver operation characteristic curve (AUROC), area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC), estimated calibration index (ECI), and Brier score were used to measure performance. In internal validation, the GBDT model achieved the best overall performance (Brier score, 0.164), discrimination (AUROC, 0.742; AUPRC, 0.537), and calibration (ECI, 8.224). In external validation, the GBDT model also achieved the best overall performance (Brier score, 0.166), discrimination (AUROC, 0.747; AUPRC, 0.536), and calibration (ECI, 8.294). External validation showed that the calibration curve of the GBDT model was an optimal fit, and four ML models outperformed the customized SAPS II model. The GBDT-based pLOS-ICU prediction model had the best prediction performance among the five models on both internal and external datasets. Furthermore, it has the potential to assist ICU physicians to identify patients with pLOS-ICU risk and provide appropriate clinical interventions to improve patient outcomes.

Elevated Serum Tenascin-C Predicts Mortality in Critically Ill Patients With Multiple Organ Dysfunction

Background: Multiple organ dysfunction is a complex and lethal clinical feature with heterogeneous causes and is usually characterized by tissue injury of multiple organs. Tenascin-C (TNC) is a matricellular protein that is rarely expressed in most of the adult tissues, but re-induced following injury. This study aimed to evaluate serum TNC in predicting mortality in critically ill patients with multiple organ dysfunction.Methods: Adult critically ill patients with at least two organs dysfunction and an increase of Sequential Organ Failure Assess (SOFA) score ≥ 2 points within 7 days were prospectively enrolled into two independent cohorts. The emergency (derivation) cohort was a consecutive series and the patients were from Emergency Department. The inpatient (validation) cohort was a convenience series and the patients were from medical wards. Their serum samples at the first 24 h after enrollment were collected and subjected to TNC measurement using ELISA. The association between serum TNC level and 28-day all-cause mortality was investigated, and then the predictive value of serum TNC was analyzed.Results: A total of 110 patients with a median age of 64 years (53, 73) were enrolled in the emergency cohort. Compared to the survivors, serum TNC in the non-survivors was significantly higher (467.7 vs. 197.5 ng/ml, p &lt; 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the association between serum TNC and 28-day mortality was independent of sepsis or critical illness scores such as SOFA, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II), and Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II), respectively (p &lt; 0.001 for each). The area under receiver operating characteristic curve of serum TNC for predicting mortality was 0.803 (0.717–0.888) (p &lt; 0.001), similar with SOFA 0.808 (0.725–0.891), APACHE II 0.762 (0.667–0.857), and SAPS II 0.779 (0.685–0.872). The optimal cut-off value of serum TNC was 298.2 ng/ml. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that the survival of patients with serum TNC ≥ 300 ng/ml was significantly worse than that of patients with serum TNC &lt; 300 ng/ml. This result was validated in the inpatient cohort. The sensitivity and specificity of serum TNC ≥ 300 ng/ml for predicting mortality were 74.3 and 74.7% in the emergency cohort, and 63.0 and 70.1% in the inpatient cohort, respectively.Conclusion: Serum TNC was associated with mortality in critically ill patients with multiple organ dysfunction, and would be used as a prognostic tool for predicting mortality in this population.

Prognostic Scores and Azole-Resistant Aspergillus fumigatus in Invasive Aspergillosis from an Indian Respiratory Medicine ICU (ICU Patients with IA Suspicion)

Objective: To assess the effectiveness of three general prognostic models (APACHE II, SAPS II, and SOFA) with serum galactomannan antigen in a clinically suspected invasive aspergillosis (IA) subpopulation admitted to a respiratory medicine ICU and to identify azole-resistant Aspergillus fumigatus (ARAF) cases. Methodology and Results: A total of 235 clinically suspected IA patients were prospectively enrolled and observed 30-day mortality was 29.7%. The three general models showed poor discrimination assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUCs, <0.7) and good calibration (p = 0.92, 0.14, and 0.13 for APACHE II, SAPS II, and SOFA, respectively), evaluated using Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests. However, discrimination was significantly better with galactomannan values (AUC, 0.924). In-vitro antifungal testing revealed higher minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) for 12/34 isolates (35.3%) whereas azole resistance was noted in 40% of Aspergillus fumigatus isolates (6/15) with two hotspot cyp51A mutations, G54R and P216L. Conclusions: Patients diagnosed with putative and probable IA (71.4% and 34.6%, respectively), had high mortality. The general prognostic model APACHE II seemed fairly accurate for this subpopulation. However, the use of local GM cut-offs calculated for mortality, may help the intensivists in prompt initiation or change of therapy for better outcome of patients. In addition, the high MICs highlight the need of antifungal surveillance to know the local resistance rate which might aid in patient treatment.

Absence of fear of dying predicts new organ failure: Results of a multicenter prospective observational cohort study

Rationale: Intensity of anxiety at admission in intensive care unit (ICU) is associated with subsequent deterioration.Objective: The primary aim of this study was to assess predictive value of stressful fears and feelings to predict new organ failure within the first seven days after ICU admission.Methods: We conducted a prospective three-center cohort study of non-comatose patients without delirium or invasive mechanical ventilation. A twelve-item questionnaire was developed to assess stressful fears and feelings. Illness severity was assessed using SAPS-II and SOFA scores. Intensity of chronic and acute anxiety was assessed with the ‘Trait’ and ‘State’ forms of the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI). Patients were followed-up for seven days. Results: From April 2014 to December 2017, 373 patients (median age, 63y.o. [49-74]; 159 [40.7%] women; SAPS-II 28 [19-37]) were included. Feeling of vulnerability and fear of dying was reported in 209 (54.4%) and 178 (46.4%) patients, respectively. STAI was equal or above 40 in 192 (51.5%) patients. Ninety-four (25.2%) patients developed a new organ failure. Feeling of vulnerability (OR=1.96, 95%CI:1.12-3.43], p=0.01) and absence of fear of dying (OR=2.38, 95%CI:1.37-4.17], p=0.002) were associated with occurrence of a new organ failure after adjustment on STAI ≥40, SAPS-II and SOFA. Conclusion: Absence of fear of dying is associated with occurrence of new organ failure within the seven post-ICU admission days. We hypothesize that fear of dying might be protective for subsequent deterioration by mobilizing patient’s homeostatic resources. Trial registration: NCT02355626