Effectiveness of LODS, OASIS, and SAPS II to predict in-hospital mortality for intensive care patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction

The relationship between three scoring systems (LODS, OASIS, and SAPS II) and in-hospital mortality of intensive care patients with ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is currently inconclusive. The baseline data, LODS score, OASIS score, SAPS II score, and in-hospital prognosis of intensive care patients with STEMI were retrieved from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database. Propensity score matching analysis was performed to reduce bias. Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) were drawn for the three scoring systems, and comparisons between the areas under the ROC curves (AUC) were conducted. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to determine the net benefits of the three scoring systems. LODS and SAPS II were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality. For the study cohort, the AUCs of LODS, OASIS, SAPS II were 0.867, 0.827, and 0.894; after PSM, the AUCs of LODS, OASIS, SAPS II were 0.877, 0.821, and 0.881. A stratified analysis of the patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention/coronary artery bypass grafting (PCI/CABG) or not was conducted. In the PCI/CABG group, the AUCs of LODS, OASIS, SAPS II were 0.853, 0.825, and 0.867, while in the non-PCI/CABG group, the AUCs of LODS, OASIS, SAPS II were 0.857, 0.804, and 0.897. The results of the Z test suggest that the predictive value of LODS and SAPS II was not statistically different, but both were higher than OASIS. According to the DCA, the net clinical benefit of LODS was the greatest. LODS and SAPS II have excellent predictive value, and in most cases, both were higher than OASIS. With a more concise composition and greater clinical benefit, LODS may be a better predictor of in-hospital mortality for intensive care patients with STEMI.

Automated left atrial strain analysis for predicting atrial fibrillation in severe COVID-19 pneumonia: a prospective study

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most documented arrhythmia in COVID-19 pneumonia. Left atrial (LA) strain (LAS) analysis, a marker of LA contractility, have been associated with the development of AF in several clinical situations. We aimed to assess the diagnostic ability of LA strain parameters to predict AF in patients with severe hypoxemic COVID-19 pneumonia. We conducted a prospective single center study in Amiens University Hospital intensive care unit (ICU) (France). Adult patients with severe or critical COVID-19 pneumonia according to the World Health Organization definition and in sinus rhythm were included. Transthoracic echocardiography was performed within 48 h of ICU admission. LA strain analysis was performed by an automated software. The following LA strain parameters were recorded: LA strain during reservoir phase (LASr), LA strain during conduit phase (LAScd) and LA strain during contraction phase (LASct). The primary endpoint was the occurrence of AF during ICU stay. Results From March 2020 to February of 2021, 79 patients were included. Sixteen patients (20%) developed AF in ICU. Patients of the AF group were significantly older with a higher SAPS II score than those without AF. LAScd and LASr were significantly more impaired in the AF group compared to the other group (− 8.1 [− 6.3; − 10.9] vs. − 17.2 [− 5.0; − 10.2] %; P < 0.001 and 20.2 [12.3;27.3] % vs. 30.5 [23.8;36.2] %; P = 0.002, respectively), while LASct did not significantly differ between groups (p = 0.31). In a multivariate model, LAScd and SOFA cv were significantly associated with the occurrence of AF. A LAScd cutoff value of − 11% had a sensitivity of 76% and a specificity of 75% to identify patients with AF. The 30-day cumulative risk of AF was 42 ± 9% with LAScd > − 11% and 8 ± 4% with LAScd ≤ − 11% (log rank test P value < 0.0001). Conclusion For patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia, development of AF during ICU stay is common (20%). LAS parameters seem useful in predicting AF within the first 48 h of ICU admission. Trial registration: NCT04354558.

Sentiment Analysis Based on the Nursing Notes on In-Hospital 28-Day Mortality of Sepsis Patients Utilizing the MIMIC-III Database

In medical visualization, nursing notes contain rich information about a patient’s pathological condition. However, they are not widely used in the prediction of clinical outcomes. With advances in the processing of natural language, information begins to be extracted from large-scale unstructured data like nursing notes. This study extracted sentiment information in nursing notes and explored its association with in-hospital 28-day mortality in sepsis patients. The data of patients and nursing notes were extracted from the MIMIC-III database. A COX proportional hazard model was used to analyze the relationship between sentiment scores in nursing notes and in-hospital 28-day mortality. Based on the COX model, the individual prognostic index (PI) was calculated, and then, survival was analyzed. Among eligible 1851 sepsis patients, 580 cases suffered from in-hospital 28-day mortality (dead group), while 1271 survived (survived group). Significant differences were shown between two groups in sentiment polarity, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS-II) score, age, and intensive care unit (ICU) type (all P < 0.001 ). Multivariate COX analysis exhibited that sentiment polarity (HR: 0.499, 95% CI: 0.409-0.610, P < 0.001 ) and sentiment subjectivity (HR: 0.710, 95% CI: 0.559-0.902, P = 0.005 ) were inversely associated with in-hospital 28-day mortality, while the SAPS-II score (HR: 1.034, 95% CI: 1.029-1.040, P < 0.001 ) was positively correlated with in-hospital 28-day mortality. The median death time of patients with PI ≥ 0.561 was significantly earlier than that of patients with PI < 0.561 (13.5 vs. 49.8 days, P < 0.001 ). In conclusion, sentiments in nursing notes are associated with the in-hospital 28-day mortality and survival of sepsis patients.

Impact on antimicrobial consumption of procalcitonin-guided antibiotic therapy for pneumonia/pneumonitis associated with aspiration in comatose mechanically ventilated patients: a multicenter, randomized controlled study

Background In comatose patients receiving oro-tracheal intubation for mechanical ventilation (MV), the risk of aspiration is increased. Aspiration can lead to chemical pneumonitis (inflammatory reaction to the gastric contents), or aspiration pneumonia (infection caused by inhalation of microorganisms). Distinguishing between the two types is challenging. We tested the interest of using a decisional algorithm based on procalcitonin (PCT) values to guide initiation and discontinuation of antibiotic therapies in intubated patients. Methods The PROPASPI (PROcalcitonin Pneumonia/pneumonitis Associated with ASPIration) trial is a multicenter, prospective, randomized, controlled, single-blind, superiority study comparing two strategies: (1) an intervention group where threshold PCT values were used to guide initiation and discontinuation of antibiotics (PCT group); and (2) a control group, where antibiotic therapy was managed at the physician’s discretion. Patients aged 18 years or over, intubated for coma (Glasgow score ≤ 8), with MV initiated within 48 h after admission, were eligible. The primary endpoint was the duration of antibiotic treatment during the first 15 days after admission to the ICU. Results From 24/2/2015 to 28/8/2019, 1712 patients were intubated for coma in the 5 participating centers, of whom 166 were included in the study. Data from 159 were available for intention-to-treat analysis: 81 in the PCT group, and 78 in the control group. Overall, 67 patients (43%) received antibiotics in the intensive care unit (ICU); there was no significant difference between groups (37 (46%) vs 30 (40%) for PCT vs control, p = 0.432). The mean duration of antibiotic treatment during the first 15 days in the ICU was 2.7 ± 3.8 days; there was no significant difference between groups (3.0 ± 4.1 days vs 2.3 ± 3.4 days for PCT vs control, p = 0.311). The mean number of days under MV was significantly higher in the PCT group (3.7 ± 3.6 days) than in controls (2.7 ± 2.5 days, p = 0.033). The duration of ICU stay was also significantly longer in the PCT group: 6.4 ± 6.5 days vs 4.6 ± 3.5 days in the control group (p = 0.043). After adjustment for SAPS II score, the difference in length of stay and duration of mechanical ventilation between groups was no longer significant. Conclusion The use of PCT values to guide therapy, in comparison to the use of clinical, biological (apart from PCT) and radiological criteria, does not modify exposure to antibiotics in patients intubated for coma. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier NCT02862314.

Prognostic Value of Lactate / Albumin Ratio combined with APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA Score for Predicting Mortality in Critically Ill Patients with Septic Shock

Background Despite all worldwide efforts towards sepsis, more than 5.3 million patients die annually. Till now, there is no parameter or score to detect mortality in septic patients precisely. Objectives The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic performance of the lactate/albumin (L/A) ratio when combined with APACHE II score, SOFA score and SAPS II for predicting 28-day mortality in critically ill patients with septic shock. Patients and Methods After approval of the Medical Ethics Committee of Ain Shams Faculty of Medicine, an informed consent was taken from the patient or next of kin to include his/her data in this study. All patients who were admitted to the intensive care units (ICUs) with septic shock from 1st of September, 2019 to 30th of March, 2020 were assessed for enrollment in this study. Results In this prospective observational study, 100 adult patients of both sexes with septic shock were enrolled. They were categorized into two groups according to the primary endpoint (outcome) “28-days mortality”. Sixty-one patients (61%) died (non-survivors’ group) and thirtynine patients (39%) survived (survivors group). The most significant factors which affecting the mortality were LAR, SOFA score on admission, APACHE II, and SAPS II score. Prediction performance of the four variables for estimating 28 days mortality. When combined LAR + SOFA, LAR + APACHE, LAR + SAPS II, Overall score the ROC (AUROC, 0.867,0.847,0.849,,0.899 respectively) was the highest, compared to the other single models and lower cutoff (&gt;0.48, &gt;0.53, &gt;0.42, &gt;0.47 respectively)in comparison to single scores. Moreover, the overall score (including the 4 parameters together) gave the best predictive value for 28 day mortality Conclusion Lactate/Albumin ratio combined with APACHI II, SOFA and SAPS scores gave the best predictive value for 28 day mortality in septic shock patients, when compared with each separate score Recommendations combined LAR + SOFA, LAR + APACHE, LAR + SAPS II, Overall score recommended to use to predictho spital mortality, Further research on large sample sizeto study the risk stratification and implementing new scores using the lactate/albumin ratio (LAR) is needed. Simple, available and cheap markers should be used in developing new prediction scores.

Comparison of risk prediction models in infarct-related cardiogenic shock

Background Several prediction models have been developed to allow accurate risk assessment and provide better treatment guidance in patients with infarct-related cardiogenic shock (CS). However, comparative data between these models are still scarce. Objectives To externally validate different risk prediction models in infarct-related CS and compare their predictive value in the early clinical course. Methods The Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS)-II Score, the CardShock score, the IABP-SHOCK II score and the Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Intervention (SCAI) classification were each externally validated in a total of 1055 patients with infarct-related CS enrolled into the randomized CULPRIT-SHOCK trial or the corresponding registry. Discriminative power was assessed by comparing area under the curves (AUC) in case of continuous scores. Results In direct comparison of the continuous scores in a total of 161 patients, the IABP-SHOCK II score revealed best discrimination (AUC=0.74), followed by the CardShock score (AUC=0.69) and the SAPS-II score, giving only moderate discrimination (AUC=0.63). All of the three scores revealed acceptable calibration by Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The SCAI classification as a categorical predictive model displayed good prognostic assessment for the highest risk group (stage E), but showed poor discrimination between stages C and D with respect to short-term-mortality. Conclusion Based on the present findings, the IABP-SHOCK II score appears to be the most suitable of the examined models for immediate risk prediction in infarct-related CS. Prospective evaluation of the models, further modification or even development of new scores might be necessary to reach higher levels of discrimination. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – EU funding. Main funding source(s): European Union, German Centre for Cardiovascular Research Survival probabilities continuous scores Survival probabilities SCAI

Contraindications to the Initiation of Veno-Venous ECMO for Severe Acute Respiratory Failure in Adults: A Systematic Review and Practical Approach Based on the Current Literature

(1) Background: Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is increasingly used for acute respiratory failure with few absolute but many relative contraindications. The provider in charge often has a difficult time weighing indications and contraindications to anticipate if the patient will benefit from this treatment, a decision that often decides life and death for the patient. To assist in this process in coming to a good evidence-based decision, we reviewed the available literature. (2) Methods: We performed a systematic review through a literature search of the MEDLINE database of former and current absolute and relative contraindications to the initiation of ECMO treatment. (3) Results: The following relative and absolute contraindications were identified in the literature: absolute—refusal of the use of extracorporeal techniques by the patient, advanced stage of cancer, fatal intracerebral hemorrhage/cerebral herniation/intractable intracranial hypertension, irreversible destruction of the lung parenchyma without the possibility of transplantation, and contraindications to lung transplantation; relative—advanced age, immunosuppressed patients/pharmacological immunosuppression, injurious ventilator settings > 7 days, right-heart failure, hematologic malignancies, especially bone marrow transplantation and graft-versus-host disease, SAPS II score ≥ 60 points, SOFA score > 12 points, PRESERVE score ≥ 5 points, RESP score ≤ −2 points, PRESET score ≥ 6 points, and “do not attempt resuscitation” order (DN(A)R status). (4) Conclusions: We provide a simple-to-follow algorithm that incorporates absolute and relative contraindications to the initiation of ECMO treatment. This algorithm attempts to weigh pros and cons regarding the benefit for an individual patient and hopefully assists caregivers to make better, informed decisions.

Association between comorbid asthma and prognosis of critically ill patients with severe sepsis: a cohort study

Basic research suggests some contributing mechanisms underlying asthma might at the same time benefit patients with asthma against sepsis, while the potential protective effect of comorbid asthma on prognosis of sepsis has not been well studied in clinical research. The study aimed to assess the association between comorbid asthma and prognosis in a cohort of patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) with severe sepsis. Patients with severe sepsis admitted to ICUs were included from the MIMIC-III Critical Care Database, and categorized as patients without asthma, patients with stable asthma, and patients with acute exacerbation asthma. The primary study outcome was 28-day mortality since ICU admission. Difference in survival distributions among groups were evaluated by Kaplan–Meier estimator. Multivariable Cox regression was employed to examine the association between comorbid asthma and prognosis. A total of 2469 patients with severe sepsis were included, of which 2327 (94.25%) were without asthma, 125 (5.06%) with stable asthma, and 17 (0.69%) with acute exacerbation asthma. Compared with patients without asthma, patients with asthma (either stable or not) had a slightly younger age (66.73 ± 16.32 versus 64.77 ± 14.81 years), a lower proportion of male sex (56.81% versus 40.14%), and a lower median SAPS II score (46 versus 43). Patients with acute exacerbation asthma saw the highest 28-day mortality rate (35.29%), but patients with stable asthma had the lowest 28-day mortality rate (21.60%) when compared to that (34.42%) in patients without asthma. Consistent results were observed in Kaplan–Meier curves with a p-value for log-rank test of 0.016. After adjusting for potential confounding, compared to being without asthma, being with stable asthma was associated with a reduced risk of 28-day mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 0.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.44–0.97, p = 0.0335), but being with acute exacerbation asthma was toward an increased risk of 28-day mortality (HR 1.82, 95% 0.80–4.10, p = 0.1513). E-value analysis suggested robustness to unmeasured confounding. These findings suggest comorbid stable asthma is associated with a better prognosis in critically ill patients with severe sepsis, while acute exacerbation asthma is associated with worse prognosis.

Deep learning to predict long-term mortality in patients requiring 7 days of mechanical ventilation

Background Among patients with acute respiratory failure requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation, tracheostomies are typically placed after approximately 7 to 10 days. Yet half of patients admitted to the intensive care unit receiving tracheostomy will die within a year, often within three months. Existing mortality prediction models for prolonged mechanical ventilation, such as the ProVent Score, have poor sensitivity and are not applied until after 14 days of mechanical ventilation. We developed a model to predict 3-month mortality in patients requiring more than 7 days of mechanical ventilation using deep learning techniques and compared this to existing mortality models. Methods Retrospective cohort study. Setting: The Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III Database. Patients: All adults requiring ≥ 7 days of mechanical ventilation. Measurements: A neural network model for 3-month mortality was created using process-of-care variables, including demographic, physiologic and clinical data. The area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC) was compared to the ProVent model at predicting 3 and 12-month mortality. Shapley values were used to identify the variables with the greatest contributions to the model. Results There were 4,334 encounters divided into a development cohort (n = 3467) and a testing cohort (n = 867). The final deep learning model included 250 variables and had an AUROC of 0.74 for predicting 3-month mortality at day 7 of mechanical ventilation versus 0.59 for the ProVent model. Older age and elevated Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) Score on intensive care unit admission had the largest contribution to predicting mortality. Discussion We developed a deep learning prediction model for 3-month mortality among patients requiring ≥ 7 days of mechanical ventilation using a neural network approach utilizing readily available clinical variables. The model outperforms the ProVent model for predicting mortality among patients requiring ≥ 7 days of mechanical ventilation. This model requires external validation.

The PALliative MUlticenter Study in Intensive Care (PalMuSIC). Results From a Multicenter Study Addressing Frailty and Palliative Care Interventions in Intensive Care Units in Portugal

Introduction: Frailty is a clinically recognizable state of increased vulnerability common in critical medicine. When underrecognized, it may lead to invasive treatments that do not serve the patients’ best interest. Our aim was to evaluate the use of both palliative care consultation and invasive interventions in frail patients admitted to Intensive Care Units in Portugal. Methods: This was a prospective, observational study. All consecutive adult patients admitted for more than 24 h, over a 15-day period were enrolled. Twenty-three Portuguese Intensive Care Units were included. Informed consent was obtained from all patients or their surrogate. The doctor and nurse in charge calculated the Clinical Frailty Score as well as the reference family member Results: A total of 335 patients were included in the study (66% male). Mean age was 63.2 ± 16.8 and SAPS II score was 41.8 ± 17.4. Mean Clinical Frailty Score value was 3.5 ± 1.7. Frailty prevalence (mean score ≥ 5) was 20.9%. Frail patients were offered organ support therapy (64,3% invasive mechanical ventilation; 24,3% renal replacement therapy; 67,1% vasopressors) more often than non-frail patients. Nevertheless, limitation of therapeutic effort or a do not resuscitate order (p < 0.001) were more common in frail patients. Mortality rate by 6 months was higher among frail patients (50% vs. 32.3%, p < 0.001). Palliative Care was offered to only 15% of frail patients (3.9% overall). Conclusions: The authors suggest that palliative care should be universally consulted once frailty is identified in critical patients.