Evaluation du déficit du compte courant marocain par l’approche External Balance Assessment

Cet article vise à analyser empiriquement les causes du déséquilibre du compte courant marocain pour en présenter des éléments de réflexions qui devraient nous permettre de proposer des pistes de recherche pour résoudre la problématique du déficit du compte courant. A cet effet et en choisissant de baser notre étude empirique sur l’approche théorique inter temporelle du compte courant, cet article examine économétriquement les effets des variables du stock initial des avoirs extérieurs nets, des crédits privés, des importations énergétiques, du taux d’épargne, du taux d’investissement, du PIB, des dépenses de santé, de l’Output gap, du degré d’ouverture commerce international et du déficit budgétaire sur le solde du compte courant en utilisant la méthodologie VAR. Les résultats montrent que le degré d’ouverture au commerce international, le taux d’investissement élevé, le déficit budgétaire, les crédits privés, les importations énergétiques sont des facteurs importants qui expliquent le comportement à long terme du déficit du compte courant marocain.

Policy Model for Muslim State Inflation Control

Inflation is a problem which is not simple and is classified as an economic disease. Inflation is one important indicator in analyzing a country's economy, especially with regard to its broad impact on macroeconomic variables: economic growth, external balance, competitiveness, and even income distribution. Inflation is characterized by high and continuous increases in prices not only causing some adverse effects on economic activity, but also on the prosperity of individuals and society. An increase in the price of one or two items alone cannot be called inflation, unless the increase extends to an increase in the majority of other goods.

External balance sheets of emerging economies: low-yielding assets, high-yielding liabilities

The new millennium has witnessed a rapid expansion of external balance sheets and significant changes in the capital, currency and sectoral compositions of foreign assets and liabilities of emerging economies. These have created new channels of transmission of global financial shocks and amplified the susceptibility of the value of their outstanding stocks of gross foreign assets and liabilities to global financial conditions, leading to sizeable wealth transfers between emerging and advanced economies. They have also resulted in significant income transfers in view of negative yield differentials between their gross external assets and liabilities. Altogether, such transfers to advanced economies are estimated to have reached 2.3 per cent of the combined GDP of the G20 emerging economies per annum during 2000–2016.

An anatomy of the Spanish current account adjustment: the role of permanent and transitory factors

This paper investigates how much of the current account adjustment after the global financial crisis in Spain can be explained by cyclical factors. For this purpose, we extend the IMF’s external balance assessment methodology to allow for country-specific slopes and intercepts. The good fit of these cross-country regressions implies negligible residuals for most countries, and, as a result, the positive analysis of current account decompositions provides a more informative assessment of the external balance drivers. According to our findings, around 60% of the 11 pp. adjustment of the Spanish external imbalance over the years 2008–2015 can be explained by transitory factors such as the output gap, the oil balance, and the financial cycle—a share that diminished down to 50% during the more recent recovery period. The remaining adjustment of the Spanish external balance is explained by factors such as the cyclically adjusted fiscal consolidation, population ageing, lower growth expectations, or competitiveness gains, which can all be considered as more permanent phenomena.

The Revised EBA-Lite Methodology

The Methodology review identified three broad areas for improving the EBA-Lite methodology: (1) expanding the fundamentals and policy determinants in the CA and REER regressions to better capture the external balance of EBA-Lite countries; (2) identifying alternatives to regression models for external assessments of large exporters of exhaustible commodities; and (3) a revised approach for the assessment of external sustainability in highly indebted economies. Accordingly, the revised methodology consists of three modules: 1) Regression Module 2) Module for External Assessments of Exporters of Exhaustible Commodities 3) Module for the Assessment of External Sustainability