Comparison of forecasting accuracy for Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves (CCEW) using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and ERA-Interim precipitation forecast data for Indonesia

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and ERA-Interim forecast data analyzed using second-order autoregressive AR(2) and space-time-spectra analysis methods (respectively) revealed contrasting results for predicting Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves (CCEW) phenomena over Indonesia. This research used the same 13-year series of daily TRMM 3B42 V7 derived datasets and ERA-Interim reanalysis model datasets from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for precipitation forecasts. Three years (2016 to 2018) of the filtered 3B42 and ERA-Interim forecast data was then used to evaluate forecast accuracy by looking at correlation coefficients for forecast leads from day +1 through day +7. The results revealed that rainfall estimation data from 3B42 provides better results for the shorter forecast leads, particularly for MJO, equatorial Rossby (ER), mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG), and inertia-gravity phenomena in zonal wavenumber 1 (IG1), but gives poor correlation for Kelvin waves for all forecast leads. A consistent correlation for all waves was achieved from the filtered ERA-Interim precipitation forecast model, and although this was quite weak for the first forecast leads it did not reach a negative correlation in the later forecast leads except for IG1. Furthermore, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was also calculated to complement forecasting skills for both data sources, with the result that residual RMSE for the filtered ERA-Interim precipitation forecast was quite small during all forecast leads and for all wave types. These findings prove that the ERA-Interim precipitation forecast model remains an adequate precipitation model in the tropics for MJO and CCEW forecasting, specifically for Indonesia.

Eastward-propagating planetary waves in the polar middle atmosphere

According to Modern-Era Retrospective Research Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) temperature and wind datasets in 2019, this study presents the global variations in the eastward-propagating wavenumber 1 (E1), 2 (E2), 3 (E3) and 4 (E4) planetary waves (PWs) and their diagnostic results in the polar middle atmosphere. We clearly demonstrate the eastward wave modes exist during winter periods with westward background wind in both hemispheres. The maximum wave amplitudes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) are slightly larger and lie lower than those in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Moreover, the wave perturbations peak at lower latitudes with smaller amplitudes as the wavenumber increases. The period of the E1 mode varies between 3–5 d in both hemispheres, while the period of the E2 mode is slightly longer in the NH (∼ 48 h) than in the SH (∼ 40 h). The periods of the E3 are ∼ 30 h in both the SH and the NH, and the period of E4 is ∼ 24 h. Despite the shortening of wave periods with the increase in wavenumber, their mean phase speeds are relatively stable, ∼ 53, ∼ 58, ∼ 55 and ∼ 52 m/s at 70∘ latitudes for E1, E2, E3 and E4, respectively. The eastward PWs occur earlier with increasing zonal wavenumber, which agrees well with the seasonal variations in the critical layers generated by the background wind. Our diagnostic analysis also indicates that the mean flow instability in the upper stratosphere and upper mesosphere might contribute to the amplification of the eastward PWs.

Longitudinal Structure in the Altitude of the Sporadic E Observed by COSMIC in Low-Latitudes

The longitudinal structure in the altitude of the Sporadic E (Es) was investigated for the first time based on the S4 index provided by the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) in low latitudes. The longitudinal structure is identified as a symmetrically located wavenumber-4 (WN4) pattern within 30°S–30°N. The WN4 occurs primarily during the daytime at the June solstice and equinoxes, with the largest amplitude at the September equinox and the smallest one at the March equinox. It moves eastward with a speed of ~90°/day. The strongest WN4 appears within 10–20°N and 5–15°S in the Northern and Southern hemispheres, respectively. At the June solstice and the September equinox, the WN4 is stronger in the Northern hemisphere than in the Southern hemisphere, while the situation is reversed at the March equinox. The altitude distribution of the convergence null in the diurnal eastward non-migrating tide with zonal wavenumber-3 (DE3) for the zonal wind is similar to that of the WN4. This and other similar features, such as the seasonal variation, eastward speed, and the symmetrical locations, support the dominant role of the DE3 tide for the formation of the WN4 structure.

The boreal summer zonal wavenumber-3 trend pattern and its connection with surface enhanced warming

The Northern Hemisphere warms faster under global warming and suffers from more frequent heatwaves, causing considerable social and economic damage. The Northern Hemisphere surface warming exhibits strong regionality, with multiple “hotspots” (enhanced warming), but the relations among them remain unclear. This study finds a dominating zonal wavenumber-3 (ZW3) trend pattern in the upper-level geopotential heights during the boreal summer. The summer geopotential heights show significant increasing trends along the latitudinal circle around 60°N, with three centers located over northeastern America, western Eurasia, and eastern Siberia. The regionally enhanced surface warming trends are closely linked to the increased geopotential through the reduced cloud cover, exhibiting a consistent ZW3 pattern. The model simulations forced by sea surface temperature (SST) and Arctic sea ice (SIC) indicate that the SST forcing plays an important role in generating the ZW3 pattern, while the contribution of the SIC is minimal. A theoretical barotropic model can fairly reproduce the observed ZW3 structure forced by a heating source located over the subtropical North Atlantic, where the SSTs show prominent warming trends and a close relationship with the ZW3 pattern. Our results indicate that the “hotspots” may be interconnected and are related to a Rossby wave train with a ZW3 structure. It highlights a vital role of tropical/subtropical SSTs on the atmospheric circulation and the associated surface enhanced warming over the mid-high latitudes, which may have great implications in the coordinated heatwave events and tropical-extratropical teleconnections.

Wave trains of 10–30-day meridional wind variations over the North Pacific during summer

The present study investigates the intraseasonal oscillations over the North Pacific during summer based on the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. It is shown that the main component of intraseasonal variations in meridional wind is dominated by 10–30-day variability. Zonally-oriented wave trains are identified over the North Pacific at this band, with a zonal wavenumber 6. The wave trains exhibit an equivalent-barotropic structure, with the maximum amplitude in the upper troposphere, and are manifested as quasi-stationary Rossby waves with the energy dispersing eastward. The wave trains do not show a phase-locking feature, that is, they have no preferred geographical locations in the zonal direction. Furthermore, energy analyses suggest that the intraseasonal waves gain energy through baroclinic energy conversion, while the barotropic energy conversion plays a negligible role. The present results have implications for better understanding and forecasting weather and climate in North America, since the intraseasonal waves over the North Pacific may act as precursory signals for extreme events occurring over North America.

Cloud Masks Derived from the Mars Daily Global Maps and an Application to the Tropical Cloud Belt on Mars

An image processing technique is used to derive cloud masks from the color Mars Daily Global Maps (MDGMs) that are composed from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) Mars Color Imager (MARCI) wide-angle image swaths. The blue channel of each MDGM is used to select cloud candidates and the blue-to-red ratio map is compared with a reference ratio map to filter out false positives. Quality control is performed manually. The derived cloud masks cover 1 Mars year from the summer of Mars year (MY) 28 to the summer of MY 29. The product has a 0.1° longitude by 0.1° latitude resolution and is available each day. This makes it possible to characterize the evolution of the tropical cloud belt from several new perspectives. The tropical cloud belt steadily builds up during northern spring and early summer, peaks near the early- to mid-summer transitional period, and rapidly declines afterward. From the perspective of cloud occurrence frequency and time mean, the cloud belt appears meandrous and zonally discontinuous, with minima in the Amazonis Planitia and Arabia Terra longitudinal sectors. A pronounced cloud branch diverges from the main cloud belt and extends from the Valles Marineris towards the Noachis and Hellas region. The cloud belt exhibits noticeable oscillatory behavior whereby cloud brightening alternates between the western and eastern hemispheres near the equator with a periodicity between 20 and 30 sols. The cloud belt oscillation occurred each Mars year around Ls = 140°, except for the Mars years when intense dust storms made disruptions. The phenomenon appears to be associated with an eastward propagating equatorial Kelvin wave with zonal wavenumber 1. This wave has a much longer wave period than the diurnal and semidiurnal Kelvin waves discussed in most of the previous studies and may be an important factor for the intra-seasonal variability of the tropical cloud belt. The convolution of clouds’ local time variation with MRO’s orbit shift pattern results in a seemingly highly regular 5-day traveling wave in Hovmöller diagrams of cloud masks.

Dynamical evolution of a minor sudden stratospheric warming in the Southern Hemisphere in 2019

This study analyzes the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) dataset from 2002 to 2019 to examine the sudden stratospheric warming event that occurred in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) in 2019 (hereafter referred to as SSW2019). Strong warming at the polar cap and decelerated westerly winds were observed, but since there was no reversal of westerly winds to easterly winds at 60° S in the middle to lower stratosphere, the SSW2019 is classified as a minor warming event. The results show that quasi-stationary planetary waves of zonal wavenumber 1 developed during the SSW2019. The strong vertical component of the Eliassen–Palm flux with zonal wavenumber 1 is indicative of pronounced propagation of planetary waves to the stratosphere. The wave driving in September 2019 shows that the values are larger than those of the major SSW event in 2002 (hereafter referred to as SSW2002). Since there was no pronounced preconditioning (as in SSW2002) and the polar vortex was already strong before the SSW2019 occurred, a major disturbance of the polar vortex was unlikely to have taken place. The strong wave driving in SSW2019 occurred in high latitudes. Waveguides (i.e., positive values of the refractive index) are found at high latitudes in the upper stratosphere during the warming period, which provided favorable conditions for quasi-stationary planetary waves to propagate upward and poleward.

Extratropical Southern Hemisphere Synchronous Pressure Variability in the Early Twentieth Century

Because continuous meteorological observations across Antarctica did not start until the middle of the twentieth century, little is known about the full spatial pattern of pressure variability across the extratropical Southern Hemisphere (SH) in the early twentieth century, defined here as the period from 1905 to 1956. To fill this gap, this study analyzes pressure observations across the SH in conjunction with seasonal pressure reconstructions across Antarctica, which are based on observed station-to-station statistical relationships between pressure over Antarctica and the southern midlatitudes. Using this newly generated dataset, it is found that the early twentieth century is characterized by synchronous but opposite-signed pressure relationships between Antarctica and the SH midlatitudes, especially in austral summer and autumn. The synchronous pressure relationships are consistent with the southern annular mode, extending its well-known influence on SH extratropical pressure since 1957 into the early twentieth century. Apart from connections with the southern annular mode, regional and shorter-duration pressure trends are found to be associated with influences from tropical variability and potentially the zonal wavenumber 3 pattern. Although the reduced network of SH observations and Antarctic reconstruction captures the southern annular mode in the early twentieth century, reanalysis products show varying skill in reproducing trends and variability, especially over the oceans and high southern latitudes prior to 1957, which stresses the importance of continual efforts of historical data rescue in data-sparse regions to improve their quality.

The Role of Planetary-scale Eddies on the Recent Isentropic Slope Trend during Boreal Winter

According to baroclinic adjustment theory, the isentropic slope maintains its marginal state for baroclinic instability. However, the recent trend of Arctic warming raises the possibility that there could have been a systematic change in the extratropical isentropic slope. In this study, global reanalysis data is used to investigate this possibility. The result shows that tropospheric isentropes north of 50°N have been flattening significantly for the recent 25-yr winters. This trend pattern fluctuates at intraseasonal time scales. An examination of the temporal evolution indicates that it is the planetary-scale (zonal wavenumber 1-3) eddy heat fluxes, not the synoptic-scale eddy heat fluxes, that flatten the isentropes; synoptic-scale eddy heat fluxes instead respond to the subsequent changes in isentropic slope. This extratropical planetary scale wave growth is preceded by an enhanced zonal asymmetry of tropical heating and poleward wave activity vectors.A numerical model is used to test if the observed latent heating can generate the observed isentropic slope anomalies. The result shows that the tropical heating indeed contributes to the isentropic slope trend. The agreement between the model solution and the observation improves substantially if extratropical latent heating is also included in the forcing. The model temperature response shows a pattern resembling the warm-Arctic-cold-continent pattern. From these results, it is concluded that the recent flattening trend of isentropic slope north of 50°N is mostly caused by planetary scale eddy activities generated from latent heating, and that this change is accompanied by a warm-Arctic-cold-continent pattern that permeates the entire troposphere.

Sensitivity of western north Pacific summertime tropical synoptic- scale disturbances to extratropical forcing – A regional climate model study

The role of extratropical forcing on the summertime tropical synoptic-scale disturbances (TSDs) in the western north Pacific has been investigated, by conducting parallel integrations of the Regional Climate Model (RegCM). The suite of experiments consists of a control run (CTRL) with European Centre for Medium Range Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis data as boundary conditions, and an experimental run (EXPT) with the same setting, except that signals with zonal wavenumber > 6 were suppressed at the northern boundary (located at 42°N) of the model domain. Comparison between CTRL and EXPT showed that, without extratropical forcing, there is weaker TSD activity in the June-to-August season, with reduced precipitation over the TSD pathway. Associated with suppressed TSD, southeastward-directed wave activity is also reduced, leading to less active mixed Rossby gravity (MRG) waves in the equatorial western Pacific area. Further analysis revealed that extratropical forcing and associated circulation changes can modulate the TSD wavetrain and its coherence structure, in relation to low-level vorticity in far western north Pacific. In CTRL, west of about 140°E, TSD-related circulation tends to be stronger; in EXPT, vorticity signals and vertical motions are found to be slightly more coherent in the more eastern portion of the TSD wavetrain. The latter enhanced coherency of TSD east of 140°E, from the EXPT simulations, might be due to changes in wave activity transport channelled by modulated upper-level mid-latitude westerlies in EXPT. Energetics indicate that changes in low-level background circulation itself can also influence TSD characteristics. Our results serve to quantify how extratropical forcing and related general circulation features influence western north Pacific summertime TSD activities. Implications on understanding the initiation of TSD, as well as their variability on longer time scales, are discussed.