Bayesian Surface Warping Approach for Rectifying Geological Boundaries Using Displacement Likelihood and Evidence from Geochemical Assays

This article presents a Bayesian framework for manipulating mesh surfaces with the aim of improving the positional integrity of the geological boundaries that they seek to represent. The assumption is that these surfaces, created initially using sparse data, capture the global trend and provide a reasonable approximation of the stratigraphic, mineralization, and other types of boundaries for mining exploration, but they are locally inaccurate at scales typically required for grade estimation. The proposed methodology makes local spatial corrections automatically to maximize the agreement between the modeled surfaces and observed samples. Where possible, vertices on a mesh surface are moved to provide a clear delineation, for instance, between ore and waste material across the boundary based on spatial and compositional analysis using assay measurements collected from densely spaced, geo-registered blast holes. The maximum a posteriori (MAP) solution ultimately considers the chemistry observation likelihood in a given domain. Furthermore, it is guided by an a priori spatial structure that embeds geological domain knowledge and determines the likelihood of a displacement estimate. The results demonstrate that increasing surface fidelity can significantly improve grade estimation performance based on large-scale model validation.

Stability Improvement Method for Embankment Dam with Respect to Conduit Cracks

In recent years, as the number of reservoir embankments constructed has increased, embankment failures due to cracks in aging conduits have also increased. In this study, a crack in a conduit was modeled based on the current conduit design model, and the risk of internal erosion was analyzed using a large-scale model test and three-dimensional deformation–seepage analysis. The results show that when cracks existed in the conduit, soil erosion and cavitation occurred near the crack area, which made the conduit extremely vulnerable to internal erosion. Herein, a model is proposed that can reduce internal erosion by applying a layer of sand and geotextiles on the upper part of the conduit located close to the downstream slope. In the proposed model, only partial erosion occurred inside the conduit, and no cavitation appeared near the crack in the conduit. The results suggest that internal erosion can be suppressed when the water pressure acting intensively on the crack in the conduit is dispersed by the drainage layer. To validate these results, the pore water pressure, seepage line, and hydraulic gradient were investigated to confirm the erosion phenomenon and reinforcement effect.

Extending a Large-Scale Model to Better Represent Water Resources without Increasing the Model’s Complexity

The increasing impact of anthropogenic interference on river basins has facilitated the development of the representation of human influences in large-scale models. The representation of groundwater and large reservoirs have realised significant developments recently. Groundwater and reservoir representation in the Global Water Availability Assessment (GWAVA) model have been improved, critically, with a minimal increase in model complexity and data input requirements, in keeping with the model’s applicability to regions with low-data availability. The increased functionality was assessed in two highly anthropogenically influenced basins. A revised groundwater routine was incorporated into GWAVA, which is fundamentally driven by three input parameters, and improved the simulation of streamflow and baseflow in the headwater catchments such that low-flow model skill increased 33–67% in the Cauvery and 66–100% in the Narmada. The existing reservoir routine was extended and improved the simulation of streamflow in catchments downstream of major reservoirs, using two calibratable parameters. The model performance was improved between 15% and 30% in the Cauvery and 7–30% in the Narmada, with the daily reservoir releases in the Cauvery improving significantly between 26% and 164%. The improvement of the groundwater and reservoir routines in GWAVA proved successful in improving the model performance, and the inclusions allowed for improved traceability of simulated water balance components. This study illustrates that improvement in the representation of human–water interactions in large-scale models is possible, without excessively increasing the model complexity and input data requirements.

Novel Method to Analytically Obtain the Asymptotic Stable Equilibria States of Extended SIR-Type Epidemiological Models

We present a new analytical method to find the asymptotic stable equilibria states based on the Markov chain technique. We reveal this method on the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR)-type epidemiological model that we developed for viral diseases with long-term immunity memory. This is a large-scale model containing 15 nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and classical methods have failed to analytically obtain its equilibria. The proposed method is used to conduct a comprehensive analysis by a stochastic representation of the dynamics of the model, followed by finding all asymptotic stable equilibrium states of the model for any values of parameters and initial conditions thanks to the symmetry of the population size over time.