Climate Sensitivity and the Value of Agricultural Production in the Brazilian Northeast: An Approach Using Spatial Panel Data

This work analyzes the sensitivity of agricultural production in relation to changes in precipitation and temperature levels in the Northeast region of Brazil. For that purpose, data from 2006 to 2016 were used for 952 municipalities in the area. The econometric methodology derived from Kunwar and Bohara (2017) and is applied to the production value of municipalities in the Brazilian Northeast, where it is assumed that the production value is also impacted by the interactions between precipitation and temperature. Thus, time and space data are used, applied to a spatial econometric methodology. The results suggest that the agricultural production of the municipalities of the Brazilian Northeast is spatially autocorrelated. There is indication that there are municipalities with high (or low) levels of production, which have neighbors with these same characteristics. It was also verified that, from 2006 to 2011, the agricultural production was more sensitive to changes in temperature levels than to changes in average precipitation. However, after the years 2012, 2013, 2015 and 2016, agricultural production has become more sensitive to changes in the precipitation levels. It was also noted that in the analyzed period there was an increase in the average sensitivity of the agricultural production in relation to the precipitation levels, while the average temperature sensitivity showed a decrease.

Stage-I Shariah compliant Macaulay’s duration model testing

Purpose The purpose of this study is to develop, test and examine econometric methodology for Sharīʿah-compliant duration models of Islamic banks. Design/methodology/approach The research evaluates all existing duration models from Sharīʿah’s perspective and develops a four-stage framework for testing Sharīʿah-compliant duration models. The econometric methodology consists of multiple regression, Johansen co-integration, error correction model, vector error correction model (VECM) and threshold vector error models (TVECM). Findings Regressions analysis suggests that returns on earning assets and interbank offered rates are significant factors for calculating the duration of earning assets, whereas returns paid on return bearing liabilities and average interbank rates of deposits are significant factors for duration of return bearing liabilities. VECM suggests that short run duration converges into long run duration and TVECM suggests that management of assets and liabilities also plays a significant role that can bring about a change of about 15% in respective durations. Practical implications Sharīʿah-compliant duration models will improve risk and Sharīʿah efficiency, which will ultimately improve market capitalization and returns stability of Islamic banks in the long run. Originality/value Sharīʿah-compliant duration models testing provides insight into how various factors, namely, rates of return, benchmark rates and managerial skills of Islamic bank risk managers impact durations of assets and liabilities. It also explains the future course of action for Sharīʿah-compliant duration model testing.

The influence of Airbnb on hotel occupancy in Mexico: a Big Data Analysis (2007-2018)

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the influence that the usage of the Airbnb’s platform has had on hotel occupancy in Mexico during 2007- 2018 period. The Hotel Classification System is considered to know if there are differences in this influence, according to hotels’ category. To obtain the information from Airbnb, an application was created that extracted the public information of each lodging published on the website. Results were estimated by using the panel data econometric methodology, showing that the only negative impact the usage of Airbnb has on hotel occupancy is in 4-star hotels, and that an increase in the price of Airbnb’s lodgings produces a rise in hotel occupancy. In other hotel categories there is no negative effect. An implication is that the usage of platforms like the one studied can be moderately regulated in Mexico.

Crecimiento económico ecuatoriano: contraste entre “La revolución ciudadana” y los gobiernos

Este artículo propone un recorrido teórico : la evolución de la demanda agregada en dos períodos de tiempo, en la que, se enfatiza sobre la variabilidad de indicadores macroeconómicos como son: el crecimiento económico, el gasto de gobierno, y, el gasto de consumo final de los hogares; el objetivo principal es contrastar las elasticidades que poseen el gasto de consumo final de los hogares y el gasto del gobierno en el crecimiento económico ecuatoriano en dos dimensiones temporales, la primera que toma años desde 1996 hasta 2006 (período que denominaremos gobiernos predecesores y la segunda del 2007 al 2017 «revolución ciudadana»), a través de la metodología econométrica Cobb-Douglas modificada (función de producción), la que paralelamente tuvo alcance descriptivo y enfoque cuantitativo. Teniendo como resultados principales, que a pesar de que en el periodo del gobierno denominado de la revolución ciudadana el gasto fue superior tanto por parte del gobierno como de los hogares, las mayores tasas de crecimiento económico se dieron en el periodo de los gobiernos predecesores. Palabras clave: Crecimiento económico, Gasto, Cobb Douglas, Revolución ciudadana, Gobiernos predecesores. ABSTRACT This article proposes a theoretical tour: the evolution of aggregate demand in two periods of time, in which the variability of macroeconomic indicators such as: economic growth, government spending, and final consumption spending is emphasized. of households; The main objective is to contrast the elasticities that household final consumption spending and government spending have on Ecuadorian economic growth in two temporal dimensions, the first taking years from 1996 to 2006 (a period that we will call predecessor governments and the second from 2007 to 2017 «citizen revolution»), through the modified Cobb-Douglas econometric methodology (production function), which in parallel had a descriptive scope and a quantitative approach. Taking as main results, that despite the fact that in the period of the government called the citizen’s revolution, spending was higher by both the government and households, the highest rates of economic growth occurred in the period of the predecessor governments. Keywords: Economic growth, Spending, Cobb Douglas, Citizen revolution, Predecessor governments.

Dutch Curse on Indonesia: Unemployment by Asian Development Bank (ADB) Loan Projects

The ADB takes more than five years to disburse the agreed-upon loan funds after the borrower signs the loan agreements, because of the conditionalities attached to such loans, compared with it only taking one day for commercial banks to release any agreed loans. During this five-year period, the funds stay in the bank and gain compounded interest, disfavoring Indonesia. Development studies have mostly overlooked these gains and their impacts. Knowing that ADB loans cause about 3% of Indonesia’s unemployment, we reviewed the delay’s impacts during a project’s implementation on unemployment involving 325 ADB loan projects, valued at over $33 billion, from 1969 to 2017. We used a non-econometric methodology by adopting the management principles of the project and portfolio. The results show that the ADB’s loans at 1% GDP initially helped Indonesia reduce its unemployment by 30%. However, because of the ADB’s standard implementation of five years, along with an extra two-year delay (seven years in total) we observed shorter unemployment reductions by half, but then reversed, increased and tripled joblessness. This is also causing Indonesia to suffer capital losses of $0.6 to $12 per $1 of loan money, which is equivalent to 4.98% of its GDP because of the delays in the disbursement of the funds. ADB loans have severe negative effects, with over 200% volatility because of the delays. Fixing this is simple but requires a paradigm shift.

Factors Affecting Outbound Open Innovation Performance in Bio-Pharmaceutical Industry-Focus on Out-Licensing Deals

Due to the high risk in development process, the bio-pharmaceutical industry has transformed itself into an open innovation framework in order to overcome economic risk. This study examines the relationship between outbound open innovation and financial performance in bio-pharmaceutical industry. Specifically, this study extends knowledge-based view to link the open innovation performance and licensor’s sustainability. In order to provide empirical evidence, this study uses econometric methodology with several databases including bio-pharmaceutical firms. The analysis shows firm’s desorptive capabilities have a significant effect on financial performance, confirming the application of knowledge capacity framework. The result of the study can suggest the way how the licensors can maintain the sustainability of competitiveness in bio-pharmaceutical industry.

Econometric methodology of systems research

The textbook presents the methodology of a comprehensive econometric approach to the analysis, modeling and forecasting of multi-level economic systems, which includes the construction and analysis of econometric models, the study of the possibility of their practical application to identify and justify economic patterns, forecasting the consequences of management decisions. Meets the requirements of the federal state educational standards of higher education of the latest generation. It is intended for bachelors, undergraduates and postgraduates of economic fields. It will also be useful for anyone who is engaged in data processing based on econometric methods and computer technologies.

A Sustainable Niche Market: How Does Honey Behave?

The global honey market has witnessed constant growth over recent decades, especially in Asian regions. In recent years, the increase in export flows of this product throughout the world has raised the issue of the lack of international import standards and regulations, making trade susceptible to variables that are not only economic, but also social or political. The objective of this study is therefore to explore, using the econometric methodology of gravity models, what the determinants of the international honey trade are, both economic and socio-cultural, and to verify whether a niche market, such as the one being examined, is influenced by these covariates, in a similar manner to the main commodities of the agri-food sector, or if honey displays a unique behavior. The results show that honey market behavior is not statistically different from that of the main agri-food products already studied and that the cultural distance, introduced as a covariate, does not have a significant influence.