Transitional Justice, Institutions and Temporality: Towards a Dynamic Understanding

This article examines the impact of institutionalisation of governance, bureaucracy and rule of law on the timeframes employed for transitional justice. It argues that the urgency of transitional justice has consistently given way to temporally extended justice projects as state strength permits revision of initial leniency in terms of truth, criminal accountability and vetting, while state weaknesses compel the delay of projects pending institutional development or consolidation through long-term peacebuilding missions. Furthermore, a more recent focus on transformative social change that looks at economic root causes of conflict would require states and policy-makers to use a longer, multigenerational timeframe for action. In the absence of theoretical work on how these multi-generational commitments might be realised, this article draws on literature in the field of development to outline a plausible model for how transitional justice, peacebuilding and development are dynamically realised over time. It argues that for transitional justice to be even minimally transformative, it must be embedded in top-down developmental institutions of government sufficiently robust to implement recommendations. It must also be embedded in bottom-up developmental coalitions whose everyday political contests can shape the structure and effects of these institutions over time.

Attentive brain states in infants with and without later autism

Early difficulties in engaging attentive brain states in social settings could affect learning and have cascading effects on social development. We investigated this possibility using multichannel electroencephalography during a face/non-face paradigm in 8-month-old infants with (FH, n = 91) and without (noFH, n = 40) a family history of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). An event-related potential component reflecting attention engagement, the Nc, was compared between FH infants who received a diagnosis of ASD at 3 years of age (FH-ASD; n = 19), FH infants who did not (FH-noASD; n = 72) and noFH infants (who also did not, hereafter noFH-noASD; n = 40). ‘Prototypical’ microstates during social attention were extracted from the noFH-noASD group and examined in relation to later categorical and dimensional outcome. Machine-learning was used to identify the microstate features that best predicted ASD and social adaptive skills at three years. Results suggested that whilst measures of brain state timing were related to categorical ASD outcome, brain state strength was related to dimensional measures of social functioning. Specifically, the FH-ASD group showed shorter Nc latency relative to other groups, and duration of the attentive microstate responses to faces was informative for categorical outcome prediction. Reduced Nc amplitude difference between faces with direct gaze and a non-social control stimulus and strength of the attentive microstate to faces contributed to the prediction of dimensional variation in social skills. Taken together, this provides consistent evidence that atypical attention engagement precedes the emergence of difficulties in socialization and indicates that using the spatio-temporal characteristics of whole-brain activation to define brain states in infancy provides an important new approach to understanding of the neurodevelopmental mechanisms that lead to ASD.

Intervention and state strength: Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Economic Community of West African States compared

How can we explain variations in the approaches of regional organizations (ROs) to cross-border security threats, especially those derived from internal conflicts such as civil wars and unconstitutional changes of government? On the one hand, regional security threats appear regularly throughout the world. Pulling in the opposite direction, governments steadfastly insist on their sovereign right to conduct business within their borders as they see fit. In practice, some ROs have intervened more than others in the internal conflicts of their member states. How can we explain the difference? This article argues that ROs are intrusive when their member states share a belief that a state is too fragile to survive without intervention. Such a shared belief about state strength is fostered by historical developments, notably national economic development that strengthens state resources available to a regime, and past willingness of a regime to accept intervention. The argument is developed through a comparative analysis of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the Economic Community of West African States, respectively the world’s least and most intrusive ROs.

Association of state social distancing restrictions with nursing home COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 outcomes

The COVID-19 poses a disproportionate threat to nursing home residents. Although recent studies suggested the effectiveness of state social distancing measures in the United States on curbing COVID-19 morbidity and mortality among the general population, there is lack of evidence as to how these state orders may have affected nursing home patients or what potential negative health consequences they may have had. In this longitudinal study, we evaluated changes in state strength of social distancing restrictions from June to August of 2020, and their associations with the weekly numbers of new COVID-19 cases, new COVID-19 deaths, and new non–COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes of the US. We found that stronger state social distancing measures were associated with improved COVID-19 outcomes (case and death rates), reduced across-facility disparities in COVID-19 outcomes, but more deaths due to non–COVID-19 reasons among nursing home residents.

Predictive model of the dam foundation deformations according to the consolidation model

The dam with two culverts on the Vyunka river has been chosen for forecasting calculations. The physical and geographical features of the research area have been explored. The information on the organization of the control system of the hydraulic structure has been studied, the mix of diagnostic indicators of the state of the hydraulic structures substantiation has been carried out. The calculated values of the coefficients of the overall the upstream and downstream slopes stability for the cases considered have exceeded the standard coefficient of stability. The criteria values of the diagnostic indicators at the project stage have been defined by analysing the calculation results with ultimate element technique using the Plaxis 2D program for filtration modes, stress-strain state, strength and stability of hydraulic structures for the main and special combinations of loads. The choice of indicators is based on assessing the possibility of monitoring their values. The influence of the type of damage and destruction of the above elements has different significance on the hydraulic structures’ safety. A predictive model of deformations of the dam base was built according to the consolidation model based on the extrapolation method. The results of the obtained model of research hydraulic stricture are given.