Ambiguity and unintended inferences about risk messages for COVID - 19

The World Health Organization established that the risk of suffering severe symptoms from COVID-19 is higher for some groups, but this does not mean their chances of infection are higher. However, public health messages often highlight the “increased risk” for these groups such that the risk could be interpreted as being about contracting an infection rather than suffering severe symptoms from the illness (as intended). Stressing the risk for vulnerable groups may also prompt inferences that individuals not highlighted in the message have lower risk than previously believed. In five studies, we investigated how UK residentsinterpreted such risk messages about COVID-19 (n = 396, n = 399, n = 432, n = 474) and a hypothetical new virus (n = 454). Participants recognised that the risk was about experiencing severe symptoms, but over half also believed that the risk was about infection, and had a corresponding heightened perception that vulnerable people were more likely to be infected. Risk messages that clarified the risk event reduced misinterpretations for a hypothetical newvirus, but existing misinterpretations of coronavirus risks were resistant to correction. We discuss the need for greater clarity in public health messaging by distinguishing between the two risk events.r

FEATURES AND PROBLEMS OF BUILDING AN INTERNAL CONTROL SYSTEM IN E-COMMERCE ORGANIZATIONS

Внедрение новых информационных технологий оказало влияние на развитие новых сфер бизнеса, в частности электронной коммерции. В быстро меняющихся условиях внешней среды, оказывающих значительное влияние на деятельность компаний, сфера электронной коммерции подвергается большому количеству рисков, что предопределяет ее уязвимость. В данном случае система внутреннего контроля выступает одним из способов предотвращения негативных последствий при наступлении рискового события. The introduction of new information technologies has influenced the development of new areas of business, in particular e-commerce. In a rapidly changing external environment that has a significant impact on the activities of companies, the e-commerce industry is exposed to a large number of risks, which predetermines its vulnerability. In this case, the internal control system acts as one of the ways to prevent negative consequences in the event of a risk event.

A Description–Experience Framework of the Psychology of Risk

The modern world holds countless risks for humanity, both large-scale and intimately personal—from cyberwarfare, pandemics, and climate change to sexually transmitted diseases and drug use and abuse. Many risks have prompted institutional, regulatory, and technological countermeasures, the success of which depends to some extent on how individuals learn about the risks in question. We distinguish between two powerful but imperfect teachers of risk. First, people may learn by consulting symbolic and descriptive material, such as warnings, statistics, and images. More often than not, however, a risk’s fluidity defies precise description. Second, people may learn about risks through personal experience. Responses to risk can differ systematically depending on whether people learn through one mode, both, or neither. One reason for these differences—and by no means the only reason—is the discrepancy in the cognitive impact that rare events (typically the risk event) and common events (typically the nonoccurrence of the risk event) have on the decision maker. We propose a description–experience framework that highlights not only the impact of each mode of learning but also the effects of their interplay on individuals’ and collectives’ responses to risk. We outline numerous research questions and themes suggested by this framework.

Mathematical methods for studying risks (resumptive article)

We define risk as an unwanted opportunity and divide risk theory into three stages — risk analysis, risk estimation, risk management. Safety and risk are directly related to each other, being like a «mirror image» of each other which necessitates developing both the general theory of risk and particular theories of risk in specific areas. General risk theory allows for a uniform approach to the analysis, estimation and management of risks in specific situations. Currently, three main approaches to accounting for the uncertainty and describing risks are used — probabilistic and statistical approach, fuzzy sets, and the approach based on interval mathematics. The methods of risk estimation primarily based on probabilistic and statistical models are considered. The mathematical apparatus for estimating and managing risks is based on nonparametric formulations, limit relations, and multi-criteria optimization. Asymptotic nonparametric point estimates and confidence limits for the probability of a risk event are constructed on the base of binomial distribution and the Poisson distribution. Rules for testing statistical hypotheses regarding the equality (or difference) of two probabilities of risk events are proposed. An additive-multiplicative risk estimation model based on a hierarchical risk system based on a three-level risk system has become widespread: private risks — group risks — final risk. For this model, the role of expert estimation is revealed. The prospects of using (in the future) the theory of fuzzy sets are shown. The article deals with the main components of the mathematical apparatus of the theory of risks, in particular, the mathematical support of private theories of risks related to the quality management, innovations and investments. The simplest risk assessment in a probabilistic-statistical model is the product of the probability of a risk event and the mathematical expectation of the accidental damage. Mathematical and instrumental methods for studying global economic and environmental risks are discussed.

Analysis on Operation Risk of Continuous Sunken Tunnel on Expressway

Based on the number of 519 tunnel risk incidents that occurred in the two tunnels of the Qifu Tunnel and the Zhongcun Tunnel during the period from 2018 to 2019 of Guangming Expressway, this paper studies the temporal and spatial characteristics and the risk distribution of the sunken continuous tunnel during the operation period of the expressway. Type of risk event. The results show that January, May, June and September of the year, as well as 14:00–16:00 and 16:00–18:00 during the day are periods of high tunnel risk; at the entrance section of continuous tunnels, Compared with other locations, the number of risk events in the transition section and the open section with sudden environmental changes and gradient changes is more; the types of risk events include safety hazards, roadblocks, vehicle failures, rear-end collisions, and equipment failures. The main types are vehicle failures. There are certain differences in the east-west direction. There are more vehicle breakdowns in the east-bound direction, more roadblocks in the west-bound direction, and more rear-end collisions in the east-bound direction. The main types of risk events are cars and trucks. Both cars and trucks have major risk event types. It is a vehicle failure. In rear-end collisions, small cars account for 65% of the risk models; risk identification methods include gun patrol discovery, road administration reporting, etc., of which gun patrol discovery is the most important identification method, accounting for 65% of the total. Through the analysis of the risk event characteristics of the sunken continuous tunnel of the expressway, it provides reference opinions for perfecting the research deficiencies in related fields in our country.

Design of a Ventilation Control System in Underground Mines and Tunnels

Abstract— Today no one is free of accidents, especially in high-risk work environments such as in-mine and/or tunnel work. It is quite common that in this type of high-risk activities and where evacuation accesses are distant from the area of operations, the response time plays an important role in the event of a dangerous event, which can materialize in an accident if necessary. you do not act quickly. Having a realtime ventilation monitoring and control system helps us as a tool to prevent a possible risk event. This control system, by constantly monitoring the ventilation inside the tunnel or inside the mine, can send us an alert to a web server that can be monitored through a computer and/or a smartphone that is on the surface when there is a lack of air, when the temperature rises considerably and the humidity begins to rise or the air flow is minimal then the system will activate an alert to the different monitoring or control devices. Additionally, this prototype contributes to saving energy because it will automate the switching on of the fans only in the presence of people in the work area. This prototype thus achieves real-time supervision and allows us to make the best decision when faced with an event that endangers human life in the workplace. Keywords—Temperature; esp-32; Arduino; air sensor, mine, ventilation, work safe

The Impact of Workload on Operational Risk: Evidence from a Commercial Bank

Operational risk has been among the three most significant types of risks in the financial services industry, and its management is mandated by Basel II regulations. To inform better labor decisions, this paper studies how workload affects banks’ operational risk event occurrence. To achieve this goal, we use a unique data set from a commercial bank in China that contains 1,441 operational risk events over 16 months. We find that workload has a U-shaped impact on operational risk error rate. More specifically, the error rate of operational risk events decreases first, as workload increases, and then increases. Furthermore, when workload is low, employees tend to make performance-seeking risks; however, when workload is high, employees tend to exhibit quality degradation due to cognitive multitasking. Based on the causal relationship between workload and operational risk events from the empirical analysis, we discuss staffing policies among branches aimed at reducing operational risk losses. We find that employing a flexible staffing rule can significantly reduce the number of operational risk events by 3.2%–10% under different scenarios. In addition, this significant performance improvement can be achieved by adding even a little bit of flexibility to the process by allowing employees to either switch their business lines in the same branch or switch branches within the same business lines on a quarterly basis. This paper was accepted by Vishal Gaur, operations management.

SUPPLY CHAIN RISK ANALYSIS IN KUB – IK MATARAM MACOA WITH HOUSE OF RISK (HOR)

(KUB - IK ) Mataram Macoa is a cocoa industry . The cocoa industry can produce chocolate with a cocoa material capacity of 87 kg per month or 1.0444 tons per year. Based on data from the Polewali Mandar Regency Statistics Agency, in 2018 the chocolate industry has a prospect that is still less proven with the data from BPS Polewali Mandar Regency, there is only 1 group of cocoa industry centers and the number of business units is 1 unit (BPS Polewali Mandar Regency, 2018).The company does not currently have a structured risk management to identify and mitigate risks that occur, especially in the supply chain function. By using the House of Risk method, the risks that may arise and their causes can be identified to simultaneously find ways to mitigate these risks to improve the operational quality of the Kelompok Usaha Bersama Industri Kecil Mataram Macoa and open opportunities to detect profitable business opportunities for the company. The purpose of this paper is to determine the causes of the dominant risk and design response measures in the Kelompok Usaha Bersama Industri Kecil Mataram Macoa. The basic method of writing is descriptive method and is implemented by using a case study method through a quantitative approach. The selection of respondents was carried out using purposive sampling technique. Methods of data collection by observation, in-depth interviews, questionnaires and literature study. The results of this paper indicate that in the activity plan there are 2 risks, in source activity there are 5 risks, in make activities there are 5 risks, in delievery activities there are 3 risks, and in return activities there is 1 risk. The risk treatment plan is designed to reduce the risk status for each risk event using a risk matrix

Risk Management of Granola Potato Seeds Production: A Study in Kertasari, West Java, Indonesia

The quality of potato seeds is important to support increased production. The majority of farmers do not certify potato seeds, which can result in various risks for potato seed production activities. This research aims to identify the risks of potato seed production and formulate risk control strategies for potato seeds production. The research uses house of risk method. The results of this study show thirty-nine identified risk events. The most impactful risk event was rotten potato. Thirty-two identified risk agents with two priorities must be handled first. The most effective ways in handling strategy are training, the certification of potato seed breeder farmers, potato seed certification, as well as purchasing breeder seeds from vegetable crop research center and from other seed breeders. This research suggests the needs to produce quality potato seeds by certifying potato seed and to update the competency certification of potato seed breeders.