Mechanisms for the Maintenance of the Wintertime Basin-Scale Atmospheric Response to Decadal SST Variability in the North Pacific Subarctic Frontal Zone

Mechanisms for the maintenance of a large-scale wintertime atmospheric response to warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with decadal-scale poleward displacement of the North Pacific subarctic frontal zone (SAFZ) are investigated through the following two ensemble experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM): one with climatological-mean SST and the other with positive SST anomalies along the SAFZ prescribed on top of the climatological-mean SST. As actually observed, the simulated January ensemble response over the North Pacific is anticyclonic throughout the depth of the troposphere, although its amplitude is smaller. This response is maintained through energy conversion from the ensemble climatological-mean circulation realized under the climatological SST as well as feedback from anomalous transient eddy activity, suggesting that the response may have characteristics as a preferred mode of variability (or “dynamical mode”). Conversions of both available potential energy and kinetic energy from the climatological-mean state are important for the observed anomaly, while the latter is less pronounced for the model response. Net transient feedback forcing is also important for both the observed anomaly and simulated response. These results imply that a moderate-resolution (~1°) AGCM may be able to simulate a basin-scale atmospheric response to the SAFZ SST anomaly through synoptic- and basin-scale dynamical processes. Weaker PNA-like internal variability in the model may lead to the weaker response, suggesting that misrepresentation of intrinsic atmospheric variability can affect the model response to the SST anomaly.

Decadal Variability of Upper-Ocean Heat Content Associated with Meridional Shifts of Western Boundary Current Extensions in the North Pacific

Generation and propagation processes of upper-ocean heat content (OHC) in the North Pacific are investigated using oceanic subsurface observations and an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model hindcast simulation. OHC anomalies are decomposed into physically distinct dynamical components (OHC ρ) due to temperature anomalies that are associated with density anomalies and spiciness components (OHC χ) due to temperature anomalies that are density compensating with salinity. Analysis of the observational and model data consistently shows that both dynamical and spiciness components contribute to interannual–decadal OHC variability, with the former (latter) component dominating in the subtropical (subpolar) North Pacific. OHC ρ variability represents heaving of thermocline, propagates westward, and intensifies along the Kuroshio Extension, consistent with jet-trapped Rossby waves, while OHC χ variability propagates eastward along the subarctic frontal zone, suggesting advection by mean eastward currents. OHC χ variability tightly corresponds in space to horizontal mean spiciness gradients. Meanwhile, area-averaged OHC χ anomalies in the western subarctic frontal zone closely correspond in time to meridional shifts of the subarctic frontal zone. Regression coefficient of the OHC χ time series on the frontal displacement anomalies quantitatively agree with the area-averaged mean spiciness gradient in the region, and suggest that OHC χ is generated via frontal variability in the subarctic frontal zone.

Seasonal Evolutions of Atmospheric Response to Decadal SST Anomalies in the North Pacific Subarctic Frontal Zone: Observations and a Coupled Model Simulation

Potential impacts of pronounced decadal-scale variations in the North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) that tend to be confined to the subarctic frontal zone (SAFZ) upon seasonally varying atmospheric states are investigated, by using 48-yr observational data and a 120-yr simulation with an ocean–atmosphere coupled general circulation model (CGCM). SST fields based on in situ observations and the ocean component of the CGCM have horizontal resolutions of 2.0° and 0.5°, respectively, which can reasonably resolve frontal SST gradient across the SAFZ. Both the observations and CGCM simulation provide a consistent picture between SST anomalies in the SAFZ yielded by its decadal-scale meridional displacement and their association with atmospheric anomalies. Correlated with SST anomalies persistent in the SAFZ from fall to winter, a coherent decadal-scale signal in the wintertime atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific starts emerging in November and develops into an equivalent barotropic anomaly pattern similar to the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern. The PNA-like signal with the weakened (enhanced) surface Aleutian low correlated with positive (negative) SST anomalies in the SAFZ becomes strongest and most robust in January, under the feedback forcing from synoptic-scale disturbances migrating along the Pacific storm track that shifts northward (southward) in accord with the oceanic SAFZ. This PNA-like signal, however, breaks down in February, which is suggestive of a particular sensitivity of that anomaly pattern to subtle differences in the background climatological-mean state. Despite its collapse in February, the PNA-like signal recurs the next January. This subseasonal evolution of the signal suggests that the PNA-like anomaly pattern may develop as a response to the persistent SST anomalies that are maintained mainly through ocean dynamics.

Interannual-to-Decadal Variability in the Oyashio and Its Influence on Temperature in the Subarctic Frontal Zone: An Eddy-Resolving OGCM Simulation

Output of an eddy-resolving OGCM simulation is used to investigate mechanisms for interannual-to-decadal variability in the Oyashio and its influence on the subarctic frontal zone in the western North Pacific. Lag correlation analysis reveals that positive anomalies both in basin-scale wind stress curl and in local Ekman pumping can intensify the southward Oyashio almost simultaneously via barotropic and baroclinic Rossby wave propagations, respectively. The Oyashio strength can also be influenced by anomalous Ekman pumping that is exerted in the western portion of the basin through the baroclinic wave propagation with the lag of 3 yr, which appears to arise from a periodicity in the wind field. The intensification of the Oyashio is accompanied by negative anomalies both in the sea surface temperature and height off of Hokkaido Island of Japan and is followed by their eastward development along the southern branch of the Oyashio Extension and associated subarctic frontal zone in association with a southward displacement of their axes. These changes are associated with cool sea surface temperature anomalies and low potential vorticity anomalies at the thermocline level in the frontal zone. The surface cooling, thus induced in the frontal zone by those oceanic processes, accompanies anomalous downward surface heat fluxes, indicative of ocean-to-atmosphere feedback forcing associated with the Oyashio variations.