Population Bias on Tornado Reports in Europe

Tornadoes are associated with damages, injuries, and even fatalities in Europe. Knowing the spatial distribution of tornadoes is essential for developing disaster risk reduction strategies. Unfortunately, there is a population bias on tornado reporting in Europe. To account for this bias, a Bayesian modeling approach was used based on tornado observations and population density for relatively small regions of Europe. The results indicated that the number of tornadoes could be 53% higher that are currently reported. The largest adjustments produced by the model are for Northern Europe and parts of the Mediterranean regions.

Atypical Brain Asymmetry in Human Situs Inversus: Gut Feeling or Real Evidence?

The alignment of visceral and brain asymmetry observed in some vertebrate species raises the question of whether this association also exists in humans. While the visceral and brain systems may have developed asymmetry for different reasons, basic visceral left–right differentiation mechanisms could have been duplicated to establish brain asymmetry. We describe the main phenotypical anomalies and the general mechanism of left–right differentiation of vertebrate visceral and brain laterality. Next, we systematically review the available human studies that explored the prevalence of atypical behavioral and brain asymmetry in visceral situs anomalies, which almost exclusively involved participants with the mirrored visceral organization (situs inversus). The data show no direct link between human visceral and brain functional laterality as most participants with situs inversus show the typical population bias for handedness and brain functional asymmetry, although an increased prevalence of functional crowding may be present. At the same time, several independent studies present evidence for a possible relation between situs inversus and the gross morphological asymmetry of the brain torque with potential differences between subtypes of situs inversus with ciliary and non-ciliary etiologies.

Tornado Risk Climatology in Europe

Violent tornadoes are rare in Europe but they can have devastating effects. Damage associated with individual tornadoes can reach several billion euros and they have caused hundreds of fatalities. The tornado risk varies considerably over Europe, but so far only a few national maps of tornado risk and one Europe-wide map exist. We show several different ways to create quantitative maps of tornado occurrence rates as follows: Kernel smoothing of observations, climatologies of convective parameters from reanalysis, output of a logistic regression model to link convective parameters with observed tornadoes, orography-dependent climatologies and finally the population-bias corrected tornado occurrence rates from the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Europe Severe Convective Storm Model. We discuss advantages and disadvantages of each approach and compare the results. While the climatologies created from the individual methods show a lot of qualitative similarities, we advocate to combine the methods to achieve the most reliable quantitative climatology.

No evidence that footedness in pheasants influences cognitive performance in tasks assessing colour discrimination and spatial ability

ABSTRACTThe differential specialization of each side of the brain facilitates the parallel processing of information and has been documented in a wide range of animals. Animals that are more lateralized as indicated by consistent preferential limb use are commonly reported to exhibit superior cognitive ability as well as other behavioural advantages. We assayed the lateralization of 135 young pheasants (Phasianus colchicus), indicated by their footedness in a spontaneous stepping task, and related this measure to individual performance in either 3 assays of visual or spatial learning and memory. We found no evidence that pronounced footedness enhances cognitive ability in any of the tasks. We also found no evidence that an intermediate footedness relates to better cognitive performance. This lack of relationship is surprising because previous work revealed that pheasants have a slight population bias towards right footedness, and when released into the wild, individuals with higher degrees of footedness were more likely to die. One explanation for why extreme lateralization is constrained was that it led to poorer cognitive performance, or that optimal cognitive performance was associated with some intermediate level of lateralization. This stabilizing selection could explain the pattern of moderate lateralization that is seen in most non-human species that have been studied. However, we found no evidence in this study to support this explanation.

An Updated Severe Hail and Tornado Climatology for Eastern Colorado

A localized tornado and severe hail climatology is updated and enhanced for eastern Colorado. This region is one of the most active severe weather areas in the United States because of its location immediately east of the Rocky Mountains, intrusions of Gulf of Mexico moisture into a dry climate, and various small-scale topographically forced features such as the “Denver Cyclone.” Since the 1950s, both annual tornado and severe (≥1.0 in.; 1 in. = 25.4 mm) hail reports and days have been increasing across the area, but several nonmeteorological factors distort the record. Of note is a large population bias in the severe hail data, with reports aligned along major roadways and in cities, and several field projects contributing to an absence of (E)F0 tornado reports [on the (enhanced) Fujita scale] in the 1980s. In the more consistently observed period since 1997, tornado reports and days show a slight decreasing trend while severe hail reports and days show an increasing trend, although large variability exists on the county level. Eastern Colorado tornadoes are predominantly weak, rarely above (E)F1 intensity, and with a maximum just east of the northern urban corridor. Severe hail has a maximum along the foothills and shows a trend toward a larger ratio of significant (≥2.0 in.; ≥50.8 mm) hail to severe hail reports over time. Both tornadoes and severe hail have trended toward shorter seasons since 1997, mostly attributable to an earlier end to the season. By assessing current and historical trends from a more localized perspective, small-scale climatological features and local societal impacts are exposed—features that national climatologies can miss.

Geographic distribution analysis of the genus Xenodacnis (Birds: Thraupidae) using ecological niche modeling

Xenodacnis is a monotypic thraupid genus restricted to the tropical high Andes of Peru and Ecuador. Its only species, X. parina has a large discontinuous distribution from central Ecuador to southern Peru. To date, three subspecies are recognized, all separated by geographical barriers that clouded promote allopatric events. The taxonomic affinities of the Ecuadorian population have not been assessed since its discovery in the 1970s at the Cajas National Park in Azuay province. I studied the environmental affinities between the distribution of the described subspecies and the Ecuadorian population bias ecological niche modeling. I found a distinctive ecological niche in the distribution of each of the analyzed populations and also for the southern Arequipa population. These different environmental niche conditions come apart by deep Andean valleys playing a role as geographical barriers for the isolation of these populations that need further taxonomic analysis.