Disorder or a new order: how climate change affects phenological variability

Advancing spring phenology is a well-documented consequence of anthropogenic climate change, but it is not well understood how climate change will affect the variability of phenology year-to-year. Species' phenological timings reflect adaptation to a broad suite of abiotic needs (e.g. thermal energy) and biotic interactions (e.g. predation and pollination), and changes in patterns of variability may disrupt those adaptations and interactions. Here, we present a geographically and taxonomically broad analysis of phenological shifts, temperature sensitivity, and changes in inter-annual variance encompassing nearly 10,000 long-term phenology time-series representing over 1,000 species across much of the northern hemisphere. We show that early-season species in colder and less seasonal regions were the most sensitive to temperature change and had the least variable phenologies. The timings of leaf-out, flowering, insect first-occurrence, and bird arrival have all shifted earlier and tend to be less variable in warmer years. This has led leaf-out and flower phenology to become moderately but significantly less variable over time. These simultaneous changes in phenological averages and the variation around them have the potential to influence mismatches among interacting species that are difficult to anticipate if shifts in average are studied in isolation.

How plant allometry influences bud phenology and fruit yield in two Vaccinium species

Background and Aims Understanding how plant allometry, plant architecture and phenology contribute to fruit production can identify those plant traits that maximize fruit yield. In this study, we compared these variables and fruit yield for two shrub species, Vaccinium angustifolium and Vaccinium myrtilloides, to test the hypothesis that phenology is linked to the plants’ allometric traits, which are predictors of fruit production. Methods We measured leaf and flower phenology and the above-ground biomass of both Vaccinium species in a commercial wild lowbush blueberry field (Quebec, Canada) over a 2-year crop cycle; 1 year of pruning followed by 1 year of harvest. Leaf and flower phenology were measured, and the allometric traits of shoots and buds were monitored over the crop cycle. We hand-collected the fruits of each plant to determine fruit attributes and biomass. Key Results During the harvesting year, the leafing and flowering of V. angustifolium occurred earlier than that of V. myrtilloides. This difference was related to the allometric characteristics of the buds due to differences in carbon partitioning by the plants during the pruning year. Through structural equation modelling, we identified that the earlier leafing in V. angustifolium was related to a lower leaf bud number, while earlier flowering was linked to a lower number of flowers per bud. Despite differences in reproductive allometric traits, vegetative biomass still determined reproductive biomass in a log–log scale model. Conclusions Growing buds are competing sinks for non-structural carbohydrates. Their differences in both number and characteristics (e.g. number of flowers per bud) influence levels of fruit production and explain some of the phenological differences observed between the two Vaccinium species. For similar above-ground biomass, both Vaccinium species had similar reproductive outputs in terms of fruit biomass, despite differences in reproductive traits such as fruit size and number.

Nectar preferences in male bumblebees

Social insect males are relatively understudied, but knowledge of their biology is increasingly important for conservation of declining groups. Bumblebees are important pollinators in temperate, sub-arctic, and Alpine regions, but many species are in decline across the globe. Agri-environment schemes have been designed to support female bumblebees, but free-living males may also need support. Male bumblebees have an energetically expensive lifestyle, and so understanding their foraging choices may provide a first step towards designing interventions to support them in the wild. Using a series of controlled laboratory choice experiments, we demonstrate that males prefer sugar concentrations of between 50 and 60% when under either simple (binary) or complex (octanary) choice conditions when presented with a broad range of sugar concentrations. When presented with concentrations within this preferred range, males exhibit a clear preference for sugar solutions of 56% w/w sucrose when solutions differ by 4%. These results suggest that males maximise their rate of energy intake, as predicted by theoretical models, rather than minimise their water consumption. In the future, male preferences for high sugar concentrations can be combined with knowledge of baseline nectar concentrations and flower phenology to maximise the value of conservation interventions for this neglected sex.

Evaluation of Growth, Flowering and Seed Morphology of Batflower, Tacca chantrieri Andre

Tacca chantrieri is a perennial plant belongs to Taccaceae family that has the potential to be marketed as an ornamental plant due to its unique shape and dark color inflorescence. To date, very limited publication on T. chantrieri are available. The aim of this research was to examine plant growth pattern and flower phenology of T. chantrieri from West Borneo, Indonesia, and from Queensland, Australia in relation to their potential development as ornamental pot plants. The study was extended to examine T. chantrieri seed morphology with an inclusion of an accession from Thailand. The field experiment was conducted at the Leuwikopo experimental station in Darmaga, Bogor, Indonesia. Seed morphology examination was conducted at the Histology Laboratory of Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, Faculty of Agriculture, Bogor Agricultural University. T. chantrieri from West Borneo blooms six times a year whereas the Queensland accession twice a year. West Borneo accession had smaller bractea, fewer numbers of flowers per inflorescence and shorter flower stalk than Queensland accession. In addition, T. chantrieri Queensland grew faster than Borneo with the one leaf formed every two to three weeks, whereas it was at least four weeks in the Borneo accession. Both accessions were susceptible to leaf brown spot disease caused by Cercospora taccae. T. chantrieri Queensland seeds are oval dark brown, whereas West Borneo and Thailand accessions were shaped like kidneys (reniform) with a lighter brown color. This study demonstrated that there is great diversity in T. chantrieri including plant morphology, seed shape and color, which are important for species identification and for development of T. chantrieri as ornamental pot plant.

Present and future responses of growing degree days for Crete Island in Greece

Climate affects practically all the physiological processes that determine plant life (IPCC, 2014). A major challenge and objective of the agricultural science is to predict the occurrences of specific physical or biological events. For this reason, flower phenology has been widely used to study the flowering in plant species of economic interest, and in this concept, temperature and heat units have been widely accepted as the most important factors affecting processes leading to flowering. The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). Determination of GDD is useful for achieving a better understanding of the flowering season development in several plant species, and for forecasting when flowering will occur (Paparrizos and Matzarakis, 2017). Temperature and GDD represent two important spatially-dynamic climatic variables, as they both play vital roles in influencing forest development by directly affecting plant functions such as evapotranspiration, photosynthesis and plant transpiration. Understanding the spatial distribution of GDD is crucial to the practice of sustainable agricultural and forest management, as GDD relates to the integration of growth and provides precise point estimates (Hasan et al., 2007; Matzarakis et al., 2007). The aim of the current study was to estimate and map through downscaling spatial interpolation and multi-linear regression techniques, the future variation of GDD for the periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, under the A1B and B1 IPCC emission scenarios in relation with the reference periods for Crete Island in Greece. Future temperature data were obtained, validated and analysed from the ENSEMBLES European project. A combination of dynamical and statistical approach was conducted in order to downscale and perform the spatial interpolation of GDD through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that in the future, GDD will be increased and the existing cultivations can reach maturity sooner. Nevertheless, rough topography will act as an inhibitor towards the expansion of the existing cultivations in higher altitudes.