Bayesian calibration of an avalanche model from autocorrelated measurements along the flow: application to velocities extracted from photogrammetric images

Physically-based avalanche propagation models must still be locally calibrated to provide robust predictions, e.g. in long-term forecasting and subsequent risk assessment. Friction parameters cannot be measured directly and need to be estimated from observations. Rich and diverse data are now increasingly available from test-sites, but for measurements made along flow propagation, potential autocorrelation should be explicitly accounted for. To this aim, this work proposes a comprehensive Bayesian calibration and statistical model selection framework. As a proof of concept, the framework was applied to an avalanche sliding block model with the standard Voellmy friction law and high rate photogrammetric images. An avalanche released at the Lautaret test-site and a synthetic data set based on the avalanche are used to test the approach and to illustrate its benefits. Results demonstrate (1) the efficiency of the proposed calibration scheme, and (2) that including autocorrelation in the statistical modelling definitely improves the accuracy of both parameter estimation and velocity predictions. Our approach could be extended without loss of generality to the calibration of any avalanche dynamics model from any type of measurement stemming from the same avalanche flow.

Modular co-organization of functional connectivity and scale-free dynamics in the human brain

Scale-free neuronal dynamics and interareal correlations are emergent characteristics of spontaneous brain activity. How such dynamics and the anatomical patterns of neuronal connectivity are mutually related in brain networks has, however, remained unclear. We addressed this relationship by quantifying the network colocalization of scale-free neuronal activity—both neuronal avalanches and long-range temporal correlations (LRTCs)—and functional connectivity (FC) by means of intracranial and noninvasive human resting-state electrophysiological recordings. We found frequency-specific colocalization of scale-free dynamics and FC so that the interareal couplings of LRTCs and the propagation of neuronal avalanches were most pronounced in the predominant pathways of FC. Several control analyses and the frequency specificity of network colocalization showed that the results were not trivial by-products of either brain dynamics or our analysis approach. Crucially, scale-free neuronal dynamics and connectivity also had colocalized modular structures at multiple levels of network organization, suggesting that modules of FC would be endowed with partially independent dynamic states. These findings thus suggest that FC and scale-free dynamics—hence, putatively, neuronal criticality as well—coemerge in a hierarchically modular structure in which the modules are characterized by dense connectivity, avalanche propagation, and shared dynamic states.