Clinical Calculator for Early Mortality in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: An Analysis of Patients From 28 Clinical Trials in the Aide et Recherche en Cancérologie Digestive Database

Purpose Factors contributing to early mortality after initiation of treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer are poorly understood. Materials and Methods Data from 22,654 patients enrolled in 28 randomized phase III trials contained in the ARCAD (Aide et Recherche en Cancérologie Digestive) database were pooled. Multivariable logistic regression models for 30-, 60-, and 90-day mortality were constructed, including clinically and statistically significant patient and disease factors and interaction terms. A calculator (nomogram) for 90-day mortality was developed and validated internally using bootstrapping methods and externally using a 10% random holdout sample from each trial. The impact of early progression on the likelihood of survival to 90 days was examined with time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models. Results Mortality rates were 1.4% at 30 days, 3.4% at 60 days, and 5.5% at 90 days. Among baseline factors, advanced age, lower body mass index, poorer performance status, increased number of metastatic sites, BRAF mutant status, and several laboratory parameters were associated with increased likelihood of early mortality. A multivariable model for 90-day mortality showed strong internal discrimination (C-index, 0.77) and good calibration across risk groups as well as accurate predictions in the external validation set, both overall and within patient subgroups. Conclusion A validated clinical nomogram has been developed to quantify the risk of early death for individual patients during initial treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer. This tool may be used for patient eligibility assessment or risk stratification in future clinical trials and to identify patients requiring more or less aggressive therapy and additional supportive measures during and after treatment.

Prospective, Randomized, Multicenter, Phase III Study of Fluorouracil, Leucovorin, and Irinotecan Versus Epirubicin, Cisplatin, and Capecitabine in Advanced Gastric Adenocarcinoma: A French Intergroup (Fédération Francophone de Cancérologie Digestive, Fédération Nationale des Centres de Lutte Contre le Cancer, and Groupe Coopérateur Multidisciplinaire en Oncologie) Study

Purpose To compare epirubicin, cisplatin, and capecitabine (ECX) with fluorouracil, leucovorin, and irinotecan (FOLFIRI) as first-line treatments in patients with advanced gastric or esophagogastric junction (EGJ) adenocarcinoma. Patients and Methods This open, randomized, phase III study was carried out in 71 centers. Patients with locally advanced or metastatic gastric or EGJ cancer were randomly assigned to receive either ECX as first-line treatment (ECX arm) or FOLFIRI (FOLFIRI arm). Second-line treatment was predefined (FOLFIRI for the ECX arm and ECX for the FOLFIRI arm). The primary criterion was time-to-treatment failure (TTF) of the first-line therapy. Secondary criteria were progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), toxicity, and quality of life. Results In all, 416 patients were included (median age, 61.4 years; 74% male). After a median follow-up of 31 months, median TTF was significantly longer with FOLFIRI than with ECX (5.1 v 4.2 months; P = .008). There was no significant difference between the two groups in median PFS (5.3 v 5.8 months; P = .96), median OS (9.5 v 9.7 months; P = .95), or response rate (39.2% v 37.8%). First-line FOLFIRI was better tolerated (overall rate of grade 3 to 4 toxicity, 69% v 84%; P < .001; hematologic adverse events [AEs], 38% v 64.5%; P < .001; nonhematologic AEs: 53% v 53.5%; P = .81). Conclusion FOLFIRI as first-line treatment for advanced gastric and EGJ cancer demonstrated significantly better TTF than did ECX. Other outcome results indicate that FOLFIRI is an acceptable first-line regimen in this setting and should be explored as a backbone regimen for targeted agents.