Background:Musculoskeletal ultrasound (MSUS) evaluation of individuals at risk for developing rheumatoid arthritis (RA) having Anti-Citrullinated Protein Antibody (ACPA) positivity and musculoskeletal complaints, may play an important role in the very early detection of RA.Objectives:We aimed to identify which ultrasound markers could predict arthritis development.Methods:Individuals with musculoskeletal complaints with a positive anti-CCP2 test were referred to the rheumatology department for a detailed clinical (68 joint count) and MSUS examination of the hands, feet and any symptomatic joints. Only those without clinical and/or MSUS detected arthritis were included in the RISK RA prospective cohort and followed-up over 3 years/ or until arthritis onset. Using EULAR-OMERACT guidelines1, MSUS markers for synovial hypertrophy (SH) and hyperemia (Doppler activity) were documented for each visit. Finger and wrist tendons were screened for any signs of tenosynovitis (TS), and between metatarsal joints for bursitis. Association of MSUS biomarkers with arthritis development was tested (comparing proportions) using Chi-Squared or Fisher’s exact tests.Results:288 individuals were included from January 2014 to October 2019 (79% female, 35% RF positive, median age 48 years: IQR: 36-58). Within a median of 38 months (IQR: 1-72) since recruitment, 84 individuals (28%) developed an arthritis diagnosis.Prior to obtaining any diagnosis (at inclusion and/or follow-up visit), 95 of the 288 individuals (33%) had at least one type of MSUS anatomical modification present (around the tendons, joint synovium and/or within bursal cavities), and 56% (53/95) of these individuals eventually developed arthritis. Of the remaining 193 that did not present with any obvious MSUS changes, 16% progressed towards arthritis development.The presence of tenosynovitis was detected in 64 of 288 individuals scanned prior to diagnosis and were more frequent in those developing arthritis (44%, 37/84) as compared to those with TS not developing arthritis (13%, 27/204), p<0.0001. The extensor carpi ulnaris wrist tendons were mostly involved. Sonographic changes within the synovium were noted in 11% (32/288) of all individuals, mostly affecting the metacarpophalangeal (MCP) and metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joints. There was a higher incidence of synovial hypertrophy detected in those developing arthritis (22%, 18/24), as compared to those that remained arthritis free (7%, 14/204), p<0.0001. The MCP joints with synovial hypertrophy were more prone to arthritis development as compared to the MTP’s. Furthermore, we observed a higher frequency of bursitis between the MTP joints in individuals developing arthritis, as compared to individuals having a bursitis who did not develop arthritis (13%, 11/84 versus 7%, 14/204, p=0.009).Conclusion:Ultrasound biomarkers such as tenosynovitis of the extensor carpi ulnaris, synovial hypertrophy of the MCP joints and feet bursitis have good potential to predict arthritis development in a population at-risk for rheumatoid arthritis.References:[1]Maria-Antonietta D’Agostino et al. RMD Open 2017;3:e 000428Acknowledgements:All study participants and patients, including researchers that are part of the multidisciplinary laboratory, clinical and academic teams of the RISK RA study group, as well as all assisting this research in one form or the other are greatly acknowledged.Disclosure of Interests:None declared