EXPRESS: Bayesian Consumer Profiling: How to Estimate Consumer Characteristics from Aggregate Data

Firms use aggregate data from data brokers (e.g., Acxiom, Experian) and external data sources (e.g., Census) to infer the likely characteristics of consumers in a target list and thus better predict consumers’ profiles and needs unobtrusively. We demonstrate that the simple count method most commonly used in this effort relies implicitly on an assumption of conditional independence that fails to hold in many settings of managerial interest. We develop a Bayesian profiling introducing different conditional independence assumptions. We also show how to introduce additional observed covariates into this model. We use simulations to show that in managerially relevant settings, the Bayesian method will outperform the simple count method, often by an order of magnitude. We then compare different conditional independence assumptions in two case studies. The first example estimates customers’ age on the basis of their first names; prediction errors decrease substantially. In the second example, we infer the income, occupation, and education of online visitors of a marketing analytic software company based exclusively on their IP addresses. The face validity of the predictions improves dramatically and reveals an interesting (and more complex) endogenous list-selection mechanism than the one suggested by the simple count method.

Advances in Type 1 Diabetes Prediction using Islet Autoantibodies: Beyond a Simple Count

Islet autoantibodies are key markers for the diagnosis of type 1 diabetes. Since their discovery, they have also been recognized for their potential to identify at-risk individuals prior to symptoms. To date, risk prediction using autoantibodies has been based on autoantibody number; it has been robustly shown that nearly all multiple-autoantibody-positive individuals will progress to clinical disease. However, longitudinal studies have demonstrated that the rate of progression amongst multiple-autoantibody-positive individuals is highly heterogenous. Accurate prediction of the most rapidly progressing individuals is crucial for efficient and informative clinical trials, and identification of candidates most likely to benefit from disease modification. This is increasingly relevant with the recent success in delaying clinical disease in pre-symptomatic subjects using immunotherapy, and as the field moves towards population-based screening. There have been many studies investigating islet autoantibody characteristics for their predictive potential, beyond a simple categorical count. Predictive features that have emerged include molecular specifics such as epitope targets and affinity; longitudinal patterns such as changes in titer and autoantibody reversion; and sequence-dependent risk profiles specific to the autoantibody and the subject’s age. These insights are the outworking of decades of prospective cohort studies and international assay standardization efforts and will contribute to the granularity needed for more sensitive and specific pre-clinical staging. The aim of this review is to identify the dynamic and nuanced manifestations of autoantibodies in type 1 diabetes, and to highlight how these autoantibody features have the potential to improve study design of trials aiming to predict and prevent disease.

Importance of Advertising Media Attributes in the Context of Long-Term Brand Building in Slovakia

The aim of this paper is to understand which attributes Slovak marketers consider to be the most important and consequently which media they perceive to meet those requirements best. The first part of the analysis represents the answer to the supporting research question: What do Slovak marketers consider to be the most important attributes of the advertising medium in delivering a brand building campaign. The relative importance of attributes was evaluated using MaxDiff analysis where respondents were asked to trade off the most and least important attributes in 9 different combinations of 4 attributes at the time. The responses were analysed using a simple count-based approach, which is concerned with an overall number of -term brand building when the respondent was forced to make a choice between attributes. The purpose of this article is to help Slovak marketers become aware of their current perception of advertising media and whether this perception needs to be re-evaluated in order to prevent potential negative long-term consequences of incorrect media decisions as experienced in other countries. Therefore, this paper aims to assess the current state of the Slovak advertising industry in terms of ability to evaluate the effectiveness of advertising media to grow brand in a long-term by identifying the most important attributes Slovak marketers consider when choosing media for a brand campaign.

AKUNTANSI BUMDES DI DESA JE’NEMADINGING KABUPATEN GOWA

Je’nemadinging village is one of the villages located in Pattalassang District, Gowa Regency. Since the existence of BUMDes in this area, all these transactions are only recorded when money comes in and money goes out with a simple count. BUMDes managers have never prepared financial reports as appropriate for a business-oriented entity. This is due to the lack of knowledge of managers because none of their educational backgrounds come from the economic sector. On the basis of the problems that occur with partners, this PKM program needs to be carried out. This PKM activity was carried out at the Je'nemadinging village office. The model used in the lecture method, tutorial method and discussion. The result of this PKM is that the BUMDes Management can make bookkeeping in the form of recording incoming and outgoing money in accordance with generally accepted rules. In addition, BUMDes management has understood the accounting for cash receipts, cash disbursements, sales and purchases to the preparation of financial reports

Naught all zeros in sequence count data are the same

Genomic studies feature multivariate count data from high-throughput DNA sequencing experiments, which often contain many zero values. These zeros can cause artifacts for statistical analyses and multiple modeling approaches have been developed in response. Here, we apply common zero-handling models to gene-expression and microbiome datasets and show models disagree on average by 46% in terms of identifying the most differentially expressed sequences. Next, to rationally examine how different zero handling models behave, we developed a conceptual framework outlining four types of processes that may give rise to zero values in sequence count data. Last, we performed simulations to test how zero handling models behave in the presence of these different zero generating processes. Our simulations showed that simple count models are sufficient across multiple processes, even when the true underlying process is unknown. On the other hand, a common zero handling technique known as “zero-inflation” was only suitable under a zero generating process associated with an unlikely set of biological and experimental conditions. In concert, our work here suggests several specific guidelines for developing and choosing state-of-the-art models for analyzing sparse sequence count data.

PERSEPSI GURU TERHADAP BUKU TEKS BAHASA INDONESIA KURIKULUM 2013 KELAS VII SMP NEGERI KOTA BENGKULU

The purpose of this study is to determine the perceptions of Indonesian teachers on Indonesian textbooks of the curriculum of 2013 class VII in terms of material or content and presentation aspect. This study uses purposive samples, the sample of this study are 9 Indonesian VII class teachers who already have certification or professional teachers in SMPN 1, 3, 4, 11. and 18 Kota Bengkulu. Data collection techniques used in this research is a questionnaire. Data analysis technique used this research is descriptive technique and simple count presented in tabular form. The result of the research shows that (1) teacher's perception on Indonesian textbooks of grade VII curriculum in material or content aspect get average grade 4,14 with appropriate criteria, (2) teacher perception on Indonesian text book of 2013 curriculum of class VII in The presentation aspect earned an average rating of 4.02 with the corresponding criteria. Keywords: perception, teachers, textbooks

What do we mean by diversity? The path towards quantification

The concept of biological diversity has evolved from a simple count of species to more sophisticated measures that are sensitive to relative abundances and even to evolutionary divergence times between species. In the course of this evolution, diversity measures have often been borrowed from other disciplines. Biological reasoning about diversity often implicitly assumed that measures of diversity had certain mathematical properties, but most of biology’s traditional diversity measures did not actually possess these properties, a situation which often led to mathematically and biologically invalid inferences. Biologists now usually transform the traditional measures to «effective number of species», whose mathematics does support most of the rules of inference that biologists apply to them. Effective number of species, then, seems to capture most (though not all) of what biologists mean by diversity.

Arbitrary Overlap Constraints in Graph Packing Problems

In earlier versions of the community discovering problem, the overlap between communities was restricted by a simple count upper-bound. In this paper, we introduce the [Formula: see text]-Packing with [Formula: see text]-Overlap problem to allow for more complex constraints in the overlap region than those previously studied. Let [Formula: see text] be all possible subsets of vertices of [Formula: see text] each of size at most [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text] be a function. The [Formula: see text]-Packing with [Formula: see text]-Overlap problem seeks at least [Formula: see text] induced subgraphs in a graph [Formula: see text] subject to: (i) each subgraph has at most [Formula: see text] vertices and obeys a property [Formula: see text], and (ii) for any pair [Formula: see text], with [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] (i.e., the pair [Formula: see text] does not conflict). We also consider a variant that arises in clustering applications: each subgraph of a solution must contain a set of vertices from a given collection of sets [Formula: see text], and no pair of subgraphs may share vertices from the sets of [Formula: see text]. In addition, we propose similar formulations for packing hypergraphs. We give an [Formula: see text] algorithm for our problems where [Formula: see text] is the parameter and [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] are constants, provided that: (i) [Formula: see text] is computable in polynomial time in [Formula: see text] and (ii) the function [Formula: see text] satisfies specific conditions. Specifically, [Formula: see text] is hereditary, applicable only to overlapping subgraphs, and computable in polynomial time in [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. Motivated by practical applications we give several examples of [Formula: see text] functions which meet those conditions.