Quantifying previous SARS-CoV-2 infection through mixture modelling of antibody levels

As countries decide on vaccination strategies and how to ease movement restrictions, estimating the proportion of the population previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 is important for predicting the future burden of COVID-19. This proportion is usually estimated from serosurvey data in two steps: first the proportion above a threshold antibody level is calculated, then the crude estimate is adjusted using external estimates of sensitivity and specificity. A drawback of this approach is that the PCR-confirmed cases used to estimate the sensitivity of the threshold may not be representative of cases in the wider population—e.g., they may be more recently infected and more severely symptomatic. Mixture modelling offers an alternative approach that does not require external data from PCR-confirmed cases. Here we illustrate the bias in the standard threshold-based approach by comparing both approaches using data from several Kenyan serosurveys. We show that the mixture model analysis produces estimates of previous infection that are often substantially higher than the standard threshold analysis.

SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in Lithuania: Results of National Population Survey

Background. Betacoronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has spread in early 2020 worldwide just in several months. The official statistics are consistently collected, but this is mainly based on symptomatic reports. This study was aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Lithuanian population.Materials and methods. Study was conducted during August–September 2020 in 6 municipalities of Lithuania. The sample comprised 3087 adult participants from the general population (mean age 53.7 years, 64% female). SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were assessed using AMP IgM/IgG Rapid Test, other data were based on self-report. Seroprevalence was assessed as a crude estimate and as adjusted by sensitivity-specificity of the test.Results. The crude seroprevalence in the total sample was 1.9%, the adjusted – 1.4%, ranging from 0.8% to 2.4% across municipalities. Among seroprevalent cases, 67.2% had IgG, 29.3% had IgM, and 3.5% had both IgG and IgM. An increased risk for seropositive test was observed among people who reported having had close contacts with SARS-CoV-2 positives (OR=5.49, p<0.001). At the borderline significance were female gender (OR=1.75, p=0.082) and non-smoking status (OR=2.95, p=0.072). Among the seropositive participants, 69.0% reported having had no COVID-19 symptoms since 1 March 2020, while 31.0% reported having had at least one of the symptoms.Conclusions. The SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in Lithuanian sample in August–September 2020 was 1.4%, ranging from 0.8% to 2.4% across municipalities. Given the overall official data, by the end of study (11 September 2020) the total COVID-19 rate in Lithuania was 117.5 per 100,000 population or 0.12%. This suggests more than 10 times higher prevalence of virus across the population than the official estimates.

On the bias of adjusting for a non-differentially mismeasured discrete confounder

Biological and epidemiological phenomena are often measured with error or imperfectly captured in data. When the true state of this imperfect measure is a confounder of an outcome exposure relationship of interest, it was previously widely believed that adjustment for the mismeasured observed variables provides a less biased estimate of the true average causal effect than not adjusting. However, this is not always the case and depends on both the nature of the measurement and confounding. We describe two sets of conditions under which adjusting for a non-deferentially mismeasured proxy comes closer to the unidentifiable true average causal effect than the unadjusted or crude estimate. The first set of conditions apply when the exposure is discrete or continuous and the confounder is ordinal, and the expectation of the outcome is monotonic in the confounder for both treatment levels contrasted. The second set of conditions apply when the exposure and the confounder are categorical (nominal). In all settings, the mismeasurement must be non-differential, as differential mismeasurement, particularly an unknown pattern, can cause unpredictable results.

Study of Low Frequency Phonon Modes in YBCO System

The phonon modes in YBa2Cu3O7-&delta; and YBa2-xLaxCu3O7-&delta; systems have been systematically studied by Raman spectroscopy. The new phonon modes of 104 cm-1, 94 cm-1, and 89 cm-1 were found in all these samples. A crude estimate about the wavenumber of the collective vibration of the stable CuO2 plane was given in this paper. The standard deviations of the new phonons in YBa2Cu3O7-&delta; and YBa2-xLaxCu3O7-&delta; systems were discussed. The results of the calculation indicated that the 104 cm-1 mode probably stands the c-direction collective vibration of the stable CuO2 plane, the 94 cm-1 mode stands the a-direction vibration, and the 89 cm-1 mode stands b-direction vibration. The relevance between these phonons and the superconductivity was discussed. It is found that, as the Tc decreased, the 104 cm-1 mode and the 94 cm-1 mode softened, and the 89 cm-1 mode hardened slightly.

Economic benefits of controlled tile drainage: Watershed Evaluation of Beneficial Management Practices, South Nation River basin, Ontario

Controlled tile drainage (CTD) is an agricultural beneficial management practice that can boost crop yields and reduce water and nutrient export from fields to surface water systems. This study examined on-farm incremental net benefits resulting from retrofitting existing tile drainage systems with inline water level control structures that control tile drainage. Corn and soybean yields (2005–2009) were respectively about 3 and 4% higher from CTD fields relative to conventionally drained fields at an experimental watershed associated with the Watershed Evaluation of Beneficial Management Practices (WEBs) program located in the South Nation river basin in eastern Ontario. The marginal cost of CTD employed in this experimental watershed was ∼Can (2006) $30 ha−1. The benefit–cost ratio was 2.6 for corn and 1.6 for soybean. A crude estimate of a payback period (without cost share) was from 3 to 4 years. Assuming all cropland in the entire South Nation river watershed where CTD is suitable, will be under CTD, the net present value of this practice is estimated to yield on farm annually about $(2006) 4 million for both crops. A crude estimate of non-user off-farm benefits of implementing CTD in this manner was ∼$0.4 million per year.

Helicopter electromagnetic data map ice thickness at Mount Adams and Mount Baker, Washington, USA

Ice-thickness measurements critical for flood and mudflow hazard studies are very sparse on Cascade Range (North America) volcanoes. Helicopter electromagnetic (HEM) data collected to detect hydrothermal alteration are used to determine ice thickness over portions of Mount Baker and Mount Adams volcanoes. A laterally continuous inversion method provides good estimates of ice <100 m thick over water-saturated and altered regions where the resistivity of the basement is <200 Ωm. For areas with ice overlying fresh, resistive rocks with small resistivity contrasts between ice and rock, ice thickness is not well resolved. The ice thicknesses derived from HEM data are consistent with the previous drillhole data from Mount Adams and radar data from both volcanoes, with mean thicknesses of 57 m for Mount Adams and 68 m for Mount Baker. The thickest ice on Mount Baker rests on the gentle lower slopes whereas the thickest ice at Mount Adams lies on the flat summit. Ice volume calculations suggest that Mount Baker contains ∽710 × 106 m3 of ice in the HEM survey area, with a crude estimate of ∽1800 × 106m3 for the entire volcano. Ice volume on Mount Adams is 65 × 106m3 in parts of the HEM survey area and ∽200 × 106m3 overall.

First investigations of an ice core from Eisriesenwelt cave (Austria)

Investigations into the genesis and dynamical properties of cave ice are essential for assessing the climate significance of these underground glaciers. We drilled an ice core through a 7.1 m-thick ice body filling a large cavern of the dynamic ice cave Eisenriesenwelt (Austria). In addition to visual core inspections, quasi-continuous measurements at 2 cm resolution comprised particulate matter, stable water isotope (δ18O, δD) and electrolytic conductivity profiles supplemented by specifically selected samples analyzed for tritium and radiocarbon. We found that recent ablation led to an almost complete loss of bomb-derived tritium removing any ice accumulated since, at least, the early fifties leaving the actual ice surface even below the natural tritium level. The small particulate organic masses rendered radiocarbon dating inconclusive, though a crude estimate gave a basal ice age in the order of several thousand years. The visual stratigraphy and all investigated parameters showed a clear dichotomy between the upper 2 m and the bottom 3 m of the core, which points to a substantial change in the ice formation process. Main features of the core comprise the changing appearance and composition of distinct cryocalcite layers, extremely low total ion content and a surprisingly high variability of the isotope signature. Co-isotope evaluation (δD versus δ18O) of the core in comparison with data from precipitation and karst spring water clearly indicate that ice formation is governed by (slow) freezing of dripping water.

First investigations of an ice core from Eisriesenwelt cave (Austria)

Investigations into the genesis and dynamical properties of cave ice are essential for assessing the climate significance of these underground glaciers. We drilled an ice core through a 7.1 m thick ice body filling a large cavern of the dynamic ice cave Eisenriesenwelt (Austria). In addition to visual core inspections, quasi-continuous measurements at 2 cm resolution comprised particulate matter, stable water isotope (δ18O, δD) and electrolytic conductivity profiles supplemented by specifically selected samples analysed for tritium and radiocarbon. We found that recent ablation led to an almost complete loss of bomb derived tritium removing any ice accumulated, since at least, the early fifties leaving the actual ice surface even below the natural tritium level. The small particulate organic masses made radiocarbon dating inconclusive, though a crude estimate gave a maximum ice age in the order of several thousand years. The visual stratigraphy and all investigated parameters showed a clear dichotomy between the upper 4 m and the bottom 3 m of the core, which points to a substantial change in the ice formation process. Main features of the core comprise the changing appearance and composition of distinct cyro-calcite layers, a extremely low total ion content and a surprisingly high variability of the isotope signature. Co-isotope evaluation (δD versus δ18O) of the core in comparison with data from precipitation and karst spring water clearly indicate that ice formation is governed by (slow) freezing of dripping water.

Tabular iceberg collisions within the coastal regime

During 2000–07, five giant icebergs (B15A, B15J, B15K, C16 and C25) adrift in the southwestern Ross Sea, Antarctica, were instrumented with global positioning system (GPS) receivers and other instruments to monitor their behavior in the near-coastal environment. The measurements show that collision processes can strongly influence iceberg behavior and delay their progress in drifting to the open ocean. Collisions appear to have been a dominant control on the movement of B15A, the largest of the icebergs, during the 4-year period it gyrated within the limited confines of Ross Island, the fixed Ross Ice Shelf and grounded C16. Iceberg interactions in the near-coastal regime are largely driven by ocean tidal effects which determine the magnitude of forces generated during collision and break-up events. Estimates of forces derived from the observed drift trajectories during the iceberg-collisioninduced calving of iceberg C19 from the Ross Ice Shelf, during the iceberg-induced break-off of the tip of the Drygalski Ice Tongue and the break-up of B15A provide a crude estimate of the stress scale involved in iceberg calving. Considering the total area the vertical face of new rifts created in the calving or break-up process, and not accounting for local stress amplification near rift tips, this estimated stress scale is 104 Pa.