Investment multiplier as a risk generator for economic security of the Russian Federation

The subject of this research is the risks generated by multiplicative processes that accompany private and public investment projects in the sphere of ensuring economic security of the country. The author examines the inflationary component of multiplicative processes, which can cause rise in the cost of the investment projects implemented in the sphere of economic security, up to their cancellation. Particular attention is given to multiplicative transfer of income gains from purposefully developed industries to adjacent or loosely related industries. Such a transfer boost the competition for resources between the industries and complicates the implementation of projects in the sphere of ensuring economic security. The following conclusions were made:   - The structure of the process of interaction between the investment multiplier and investment accelerator is self-similar, which simplifies its modeling;   - Multiplicative processes may generate risks in sphere of ensuring economic security of the country;   - In order to substantiate the need for implementing large investment projects, the consideration of generated multiplicative processes is required;   - Modeling and taking into account the multiplicative processes allows transforming them from a risk generator into an instrument that amplifies the steps of the government and private investors on ensuring economic security of the country.   The novelty of this research consists in the approach towards analyzing multiplicative process as a risk generator, which complicates the implementation of investment projects by shifting the impact upon the trajectory of their development.      

Investment multiplier as a risk generator for economic security of the Russian Federation

The subject of this research is the risks generated by multiplicative processes that accompany private and public investment projects in the sphere of ensuring economic security of the country. The author examines the inflationary component of multiplicative processes, which can cause rise in the cost of the investment projects implemented in the sphere of economic security, up to their cancellation. Particular attention is given to multiplicative transfer of income gains from purposefully developed industries to adjacent or loosely related industries. Such a transfer boost the competition for resources between the industries and complicates the implementation of projects in the sphere of ensuring economic security. The following conclusions were made:   - The structure of the process of interaction between the investment multiplier and investment accelerator is self-similar, which simplifies its modeling;   - Multiplicative processes may generate risks in sphere of ensuring economic security of the country;   - In order to substantiate the need for implementing large investment projects, the consideration of generated multiplicative processes is required;   - Modeling and taking into account the multiplicative processes allows transforming them from a risk generator into an instrument that amplifies the steps of the government and private investors on ensuring economic security of the country.   The novelty of this research consists in the approach towards analyzing multiplicative process as a risk generator, which complicates the implementation of investment projects by shifting the impact upon the trajectory of their development.      

THE ORIGINS OF EXTREME WEALTH INEQUALITY IN THE TALENT VERSUS LUCK MODEL

While wealth distribution in the world is highly skewed and heavy-tailed, human talent — as the majority of individual features — is normally distributed. In a recent computational study by Pluchino et al. [Talent vs luck: The role of randomness in success and failure, Adv. Complex Syst. 21(03–04) (2018) 1850014], it has been shown that the combined effects of both random external factors (lucky and unlucky events) and multiplicative dynamics in capital accumulation are able to clarify this apparent contradiction. We introduce here a simplified version (STvL) of the original Talent versus Luck (TvL) model, where only lucky events are present, and verify that its dynamical rules lead to the same very large wealth inequality. We also derive some analytical approximations aimed to capture the mechanism responsible for the creation of such wealth inequality from a Gaussian-distributed talent. Under these approximations, our analysis is able to reproduce quite well the results of the numerical simulations of the simplified model in special cases. On the other hand, it also shows that the complexity of the model lies in the fact that lucky events are transformed into an increase of capital with heterogeneous rates, which yields a nontrivial generalization of the role of multiplicative processes in generating wealth inequality, whose fully generic case is still not amenable to analytical computations.

Investigating Multiwavelength Lognormality with Simulations—Case of Mrk 421

Blazars are highly variable and display complex characteristics. A key characteristic is the flux probability distribution function or flux PDF whose shape depends upon the form of the underlying physical process driving variability. The BL Lacertae Mrk 421 is one of the brightest and most variable blazars across the electromagnetic spectrum. It has been reported to show hints of lognormality across the spectrum from radio to gamma-ray histograms of observed fluxes. This would imply that the underlying mechanisms may not conform to the “standard” additive, multi-zone picture, but could potentially have multiplicative processes. This is investigated by testing the observed lightcurves at different wavelengths with time-series simulations. We find that the simulations reveal a more complex scenario, than a single lognormal distribution explaining the multiwavelength lightcurves of Mrk 421.

Investigating Multiwavelength Lognormality with Simulations: Case of Mrk 421

Blazars are highly variable and display complex characteristics. A key characteristic is the flux distribution or flux PDF whose shape depends upon the form of the underlying physical process driving variability. The BL Lacertae, Mrk 421 is one of the brightest and most variable blazars across the electromagnetic spectrum. It has been reported to show hints of lognormality across the spectrum from observed histograms of radio to gamma-ray fluxes. This would imply that the underlying mechanisms may not conform to the "standard" additive, multi-zone picture, but could potentially have multiplicative processes. This is investigated by testing the observed lightcurves at different wavelengths with time-series simulations. We find that the simulations reveal a more complex scenario, than a single lognormal distribution explaining the multiwavelength lightcurves of Mrk 421.