Indian COVID-19 dynamics: Prediction using autoregressive integrated moving average modelling

Background: The forecasting of Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) dynamics is a centrepiece in evidence-based disease management. Numerous approaches that use mathematical modelling have been used to predict the outcome of the pandemic, including data-driven models, empirical and hybrid models. This study was aimed at prediction of COVID-19 evolution in India using a model based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). Material and Methods: Real-time Indian data of cumulative cases and deaths of COVID-19 was retrieved from the Johns Hopkins dashboard. The dataset from 11 March 2020 to 25 June 2020 (n = 107 time points) was used to fit the autoregressive integrated moving average model. The model with minimum Akaike Information Criteria was used for forecasting. The predicted root mean square error (PredRMSE) and base root mean square error (BaseRMSE) were used to validate the model. Results: The ARIMA (1,3,2) and ARIMA (3,3,1) model fit best for cumulative cases and deaths, respectively, with minimum Akaike Information Criteria. The prediction of cumulative cases and deaths for next 10 days from 26 June 2020 to 5 July 2020 showed a trend toward continuous increment. The PredRMSE and BaseRMSE of ARIMA (1,3,2) model were 21,137 and 166,330, respectively. Similarly, PredRMSE and BaseRMSE of ARIMA (3,3,1) model were 668.7 and 5,431, respectively. Conclusion: It is proposed that data on COVID-19 be collected continuously, and that forecasting continue in real time. The COVID-19 forecast assist government in resource optimisation and evidence-based decision making for a subsequent state of affairs.

Ogilvie syndrome in a COVID-19 patient with pneumonia, absolute tachyarrhythmia and heart failure: A case report

The COVID-19 pandemic has recently spread worldwide presenting primarily in form of pneumonia. Gastrointestinal manifestations such as nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea and abdominal pain are less common than respiratory symptoms. However, critically ill patients may develop digestive complications including acute pseudo-obstruction of colon-Ogilvie syndrome. Gastrointestinal symptoms can manifest before the onset of typical respiratory symptoms. Common mucosal immune response underly both-pulmonary and gastrointestinal manifestations (high expression of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptors). This article described a 75-year old female patient who arise Ogilvie syndrome during viral bilateral pneumonia induced by COVID-19. Patient also had an absolute tachyarrhythmia and hearth failure. Diameter of caecum, ascending and transverse colon was 12 to 14 cm. The walls of this segment of large bowel were deserosed, with threatening perforation. Right colectomy was performed. Nine days after the surgery, despite all therapeutic measures taken, there was a fatal outcome due to pulmonary thromboembolisation.

Assessment of the haematological profile after appendectomy using linear titanium stapler clips: An experimental study in rats

Introduction: The technique of closing the appendiceal stump using linear titanium stapler clips is being used more and more frequently in laparoscopic surgery, despite the good practice in the use of resorbable single endoloop vicryl ligatures and/or the non-resorbable plastic hem-o-lok clips. No light has been shed on potential undesirable effects on the haemathological profile of the use of titanium stapler clips. This experimental study aimed at establishing any possible undesirable effect of linear titanium stapler clips and single resorbable vicryl endoloop ligatures on the blood cells in rats following appendectomy. Methods: A total of 70 adult rats were used, divided into a control group (n = 10), and two experimental groups (n = 30 + 30). The appendices were removed from the rats in the first experimental group using titanium stapler clips and in the second experimental group the appendiceal stump using resorbable endoloop vicryl ligatures was closed. In both experimental groups three sub-groups with ten animals each were formed, from which peripheral blood from a tail vein on days 7, 28 and 60 was removed postoperatively, in order to assess the usual haematological parameters. Stained blood smears were also analysed in order to establish any poikilocytotic erythrocytes present. Results: In the first experimental group, with the titanium stapler clips, more than 25 % neutrophils were found on day 7, which is a significantly different result (p < 0.05) to the control group. In the second experimental group, there were more neutrophils than in the titanium stapler clips group, especially on days 7 and 60 and the results of these two sub-groups differ statistically significantly, p < 0.05. Hypochromia was found in the endoloop vicryl ligatures group, as well as in the titanium stapler clips sub-group on day 28, due to lower haemoglobin values which were significantly different to the control group, p < 0.05. Moderate levels of annulocytes, spherocytes and stomatocytes were found in most experimental groups. Conclusion: The results of this study favour the use of linear titanium stapler clips over resorbable single endoloop vicryl ligatures, because a less unfavourable effect was established on the blood cells of the experimental rats with their use.

Lipid-reducing effects of sulphate-sulphide mineral water in patients with knee osteoarthritis

Background/Aim: The positive effect of thermal mineral waters on human health has been known for a long time. Many pathophysiological mechanisms of action of balneotherapy are not specified. Patients with gonarthrosis often have elevated values of serum lipids. This study aimed to examine the effect of drinking sulphate-sulphide thermo mineral water on the lipid status of patients with gonarthrosis. Methods: A prospective clinical study followed 60 patients, both sexes, mean age 65.02 ± 1.03, with gonarthrosis. All inpatient underwent physical treatment with topical application of sulphate-sulphide mineral water. Patients of group A (N = 30) had the use of this mineral water as an additional therapy by drinking, unlike patients of group B (N = 30) who drank plain water. The level of serum lipids of these patients was monitored at admission and 4 weeks after. The variance analysis test (ANOVA) with a level of statistical significance p < 0.001 was used for statistical analysis. Results: A significant reduction in the levels of all lipid fractions in the serum of patients with gonarthrosis was found 4 weeks after the completion of inpatient physical treatment in both study groups. This decrease was statistically significant in patients of group A (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Drinking sulphate-sulphide mineral water in patients with gonarthrosis shows a positive effect on the reduction of serum lipid levels in the short-term follow-up period.

Convalescent COVID-19 plasma

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a new human disease. December 31, 2019 marked the day the World Health Organization (WHO) first became aware of an infectious outbreak in the Hubei province in China. Until January 2021, more than two million people died from COVID-19. The use of convalescent plasma (CP) has been widely used in different outbreaks as the first therapeutic option given the lack of effective medications or vaccines, and often as a last chance or experimental treatment. CP is a strategy of passive immunisation. Possible mechanisms of CP-COVID-19 action are antiviral and immunomodulatory. The established protocol for CP-COVID-19 collection defines activities and criteria related to recruiting and informing potential CP donors, clinical and laboratory examination, plasma collection, labelling and storage. Plasma is collected by apheresis/plasmapheresis. Administration of plasma is performed at the request of clinicians, according to the strict indications based on the severity of clinical picture, expressed by precisely determined "scoring" of symptoms. The risks transfusion recipients are likely to be exposed to do not differ from those of standard plasma recipients. At the Blood Transfusion Institute of Serbia, the first plasmapheresis from the recovered patient-donor was performed on 11 April 2020 and so far, collection and distribution of CP-COVID-19 have been performed continuously. During the observation period, preliminary results of the effect of CP transfusion, along with other applied therapy, indicate its favourable effect, both worldwide and in Serbia. CP-COVID-19 should be used as early as possible in the course of infection in order to achieve the best outcomes.

Visceral adiposity syndrome and cardiometabolism

The distribution of fat in the human body is related to hemodynamic and metabolic homeostasis. Brown fat is inversely related to body mass index and is associated with a lower probability of developing diabetes. Beige adipose tissue shares some functional characteristics with brown adipose tissue. White adipose tissue constitutes the majority of the fatty tissue and is mainly distributed in the subcutaneous and abdominal cavity. Intra-abdominal white fat has gained prominence in recent years for its association with cardiovascular risk factors and higher cardiovascular mortality. This review article discusses the human adaptation in the environment, a sympathovagal and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal imbalance as a possible cause of increased visceral adiposity and its consequences on cardiometabolism.

Factors influencing efficacy of complete decongestive treatment in patients with breast cancer-linked arm lymphoedema

Background/Aim: The most recommended form of lymphoedema therapy is complete decongestive treatment (CDT). Efficacy of CDT in patients with arm lymphoedema related to malignant breast tumour has reported in many studies, but the predictive factors of outcome of this therapy have not been yet sufficiently investigated. The purpose of this research was to identify predictive factors of efficacy of CDT in patients with breast cancer-linked arm lymphoedema throughout the intensive phase of therapy. Methods: The prospective study included 51 patients with breast cancer-linked arm lymphoedema who were subjected to a 3-week program of CDT. Patients' clinical and demographic features, breast cancer treatment characteristics, lymphoedema and CDT characteristics were collected and assessed for their prognostic value. The influence of certain predictors on the degree of lymphoedema reduction was evaluated by multivariate linear regression analysis. Results: Mean age was 58.1 ± 8.0 (95 % CI: 55.8 - 60.3), median of BMI was 28.4 kg/m2 (95 % CI: 27.2 - 29.6). The average duration of lymphoedema was 36.5 ± 43.9 months (95 % CI: 24.1 - 48.8). The mean size of lymphoedema before CDT was 6.99 ± 5.36 %, and the mean degree of lymphoedema reduction was 63.7 ± 28.6 %. The mean compliance to bandages was 217.5 ± 97.8 hours (95 % CI: 190.0 - 245.0) and 7 (13.7 %) patients had a history of erysipelas of the ipsilateral arm. When observing each individual predictor, statistically most significant contribution showed the size of lymphoedema before the therapy (p < 0.001), then history of erysipelas (p < 0.01), and patients' age (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Size of lymphoedema before treatment is the most crucial prognostic factor of the efficacy of CDT in the patients with breast cancer-linked arm lymphoedema. The present study also identified history of erysipelas and patients age as independent predictors of the CDT efficacy.

Review of therapeutic options for spinal muscular atrophy

Spinal Muscular Atrophy (SMA) is uncommon genetic (autosomal recessive) disease that deteriorates neuromuscular function of the affected person's body by causing lower motor neuron damage, progress in muscle atrophy and in advanced cases leads to paralysis of muscles. Mainly skeletal and respiratory muscles are involved. SMA is present due to lack of SMA proteins, which are encoded by survival motor neuron-1 (SMN-1) genes. In mutation of SMN-1 genes, deficiency of SMN proteins occurs. SMA affects all age groups, but mainly and most severely children younger than 6 months of age. At present, risdiplam is a treatment option and the drug has been approved by the US Food Drug and Administration on 7 August 2020. The availability of the drug has led to increased financial, ethical and medical problems. SMA affected populations are regularly challenged to these issues.

Effects of the ultra-short-acting beta-blocker Esmolol infusion on cardiovascular parameters and quality of postoperative recovery in patients scheduled for elective plastic surgery

Background/Aim: Esmolol is an ultra-short-acting, easily titratable b-adrenergic receptor antagonist used for urgent treatment of hypertension and tachycardia in non-surgical and surgical settings. Aim of this clinical study was to investigate its cardiovascular effects and quality of the emergence from anaesthesia in patients scheduled for elective plastic surgery under general balanced anaesthesia. Methods: A total of 30 ASA I/II patients were randomised in two groups of similar demographic characteristics and baseline values of cardiovascular parameters. Esmolol group received esmolol dissolved in glucose 5 % as an intravenous infusion, 0.3 mg/kg/min during the first 5 min and at a rate of 0.1 mg/kg/ min thereafter. Control patients received the solvent only, at the same rate and volume. General balanced anaesthesia was induced with thiopentone sodium and fentanyl and maintained with nitrous oxide and oxygen. Neuromuscular relaxation was assured with pancuronium bromide and was antagonised at the end of operation with atropine and neostigmine. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure and heart rate were registered at all critical phases: (1) immediately prior to the induction (baseline value), (2) induction to anaesthesia, (3) tracheal intubation, (4) first skin incision, (5) surgical manipulation with organs, (6) suture of the surgical wound and (7) tracheal extubation. Drug consumption and quality of postoperative recovery were monitored. Results: In most of the critical phases of anaesthesia and operation, patients from the Esmolol group had significantly lower values of cardiovascular parameters than the patients from the Control group. Esmolol-treated patients needed less fentanyl, droperidol and pancuronium and had faster and smoother emergence from anaesthesia than the control patients. Conclusion: Esmolol improved haemodynamics and post-anaesthesia recovery in patients undergoing elective plastic surgery under general balanced anaesthesia.

Of multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) in evaluation of lung nodule with histopathological correlation

Background: Lung cancer is the most common and lethal cancer around the world. Computed tomography (CT) is an integral imaging technique for staging the lung cancer. Aim of this study was to correlate the multidetector CT (MDCT) findings of lung nodule with histopathological examination, as well as to assess the diagnostic accuracy of MDCT in evaluation of suspected lung nodule. Methods: One hundred patients with clinical or radiological suspicion of lung nodule referred for CT scan of thorax were included in the study. Histopathological analysis was performed. The location of the lesion was analysed and nodules were classified. Fine needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) was done with spinal needle under all aseptic precautions. The results obtained by MDCT were analysed and compared with histopathological findings done by CT guided FNAC. Results: Average age of patients was 65 years, 25 % were females and 75 % were males. Among all the patients 66 % of lesions were located in right side lung and 34 % of lesions were left in location. Of all, 2 % patients had lesions less than 3 cm, 11 % patients had lesion between 3-4 cm, 19 % patients had lesion between 4-5 cm, 26 % patients had lesion between 5-7 cm and 42 % patients had lesion greater than 7 cm. Many of these patients also presented with enlarged lymph nodes, most commonly mediastinal (73 %) followed by subcarinal (51 %), hilar (44 %) and supraclavicular (4 %) lymph nodes. The most common histological findings of lung nodules analysis were adenocarcinoma (41 %). Among the 100 patients 58 % had lesions located peripherally while 42 % had central lesions. CT was a highly sensitive (95.45 %) and moderately specific (75 %) test and also had a high positive predictive value (96 %) to diagnose malignant lung nodule. Conclusion: CT guided FNAC of lung nodule is a safe, minimal invasive procedure with a high diagnostic accuracy. The use of CT-guided FNAC in hilar and mediastinal nodules can avoid unnecessary exploratory surgery for staging and also diagnosis could be made with lesser cost.