scholarly journals Mass-balance modelling of the Greenland ice sheet: a comparison of an energy-balance and a degree-day model

1996 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. 36-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. W. van de Wal
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Energy Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Temperature Perturbation ◽  
Degree Day

A degree-day model and an energy-balance model for the Greenland ice sheet are compared. The two models are compared at a grid with 20 km spacing. Input for both models is elevation, latitude and accumulation. The models calculate the annual ablation over the entire ice sheet. Although on the whole the two models yield similar results, depending on the tuning of the models, regional discrepancies of up to 45% occur, especially for northern Greenland. The performance of the two types of model is evaluated by comparing the model results with the sparsely available (long-term) mass-balance measurements. Results show that the energy-balance model tends to predict a more accurate mass-balance gradient with elevation than does the degree-day model. Since so little is known about the present-day climate of the ice sheet, it is more useful to consider the sensitivity of the ablation to various climate elements than to consider the actual present-day ablation. Results show that for a 1 K temperature perturbation, sea-level rise is 0.31 mm year−1 for the energy-balance model and 0.34 mm year−1 for the degree-day model. After tuning the degree-day model to a value of the ablation, equivalent to the ablation calculated by the energy-balance model, sensitivity of the degree-day model increases to 0.37 mm sea-level change per year. This means that the sensitivity of the degree-day model for a 1 K temperature perturbation is about 20% higher than the sensitivity of the energy-balance model. Another set of experiments shows that the sensitivity of the ablation is dependent on the magnitude of the temperature perturbation for the two models. Both models show an increasing sensitivity per degree for larger perturbations. The increase in the sensitivity is larger for the degree-day model than for the energy-balance model. The differences in the sensitivity are mainly concentrated in the southern parts of the ice sheet. Experiments for the Bellagio temperature scenario. 0.3°C increase in temperature per decade, leads to sea-level rise of 4.4 cm over a period of 100 years for the energy-balance model. The degree-day model predicts for the same forcing a 5.8 cm rise which is about 32% higher than the result of the energy-balance model.

scholarly journals Mass-balance modelling of the Greenland ice sheet: a comparison of an energy-balance and a degree-day model

1996 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. 36-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. W. van de Wal
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Energy Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Temperature Perturbation ◽  
Degree Day

A degree-day model and an energy-balance model for the Greenland ice sheet are compared. The two models are compared at a grid with 20 km spacing. Input for both models is elevation, latitude and accumulation. The models calculate the annual ablation over the entire ice sheet. Although on the whole the two models yield similar results, depending on the tuning of the models, regional discrepancies of up to 45% occur, especially for northern Greenland. The performance of the two types of model is evaluated by comparing the model results with the sparsely available (long-term) mass-balance measurements. Results show that the energy-balance model tends to predict a more accurate mass-balance gradient with elevation than does the degree-day model.Since so little is known about the present-day climate of the ice sheet, it is more useful to consider the sensitivity of the ablation to various climate elements than to consider the actual present-day ablation. Results show that for a 1 K temperature perturbation, sea-level rise is 0.31 mm year−1 for the energy-balance model and 0.34 mm year−1 for the degree-day model. After tuning the degree-day model to a value of the ablation, equivalent to the ablation calculated by the energy-balance model, sensitivity of the degree-day model increases to 0.37 mm sea-level change per year. This means that the sensitivity of the degree-day model for a 1 K temperature perturbation is about 20% higher than the sensitivity of the energy-balance model. Another set of experiments shows that the sensitivity of the ablation is dependent on the magnitude of the temperature perturbation for the two models. Both models show an increasing sensitivity per degree for larger perturbations. The increase in the sensitivity is larger for the degree-day model than for the energy-balance model. The differences in the sensitivity are mainly concentrated in the southern parts of the ice sheet.Experiments for the Bellagio temperature scenario. 0.3°C increase in temperature per decade, leads to sea-level rise of 4.4 cm over a period of 100 years for the energy-balance model. The degree-day model predicts for the same forcing a 5.8 cm rise which is about 32% higher than the result of the energy-balance model.

scholarly journals Degree-day factor, energy balance, and the increased melting of the Greenland ice sheet under a warmer climate

1992 ◽  
Vol 155 ◽  
pp. 79-83
Author(s):  
R.J Braithwaite
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Energy Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Time And Space ◽  
Degree Day ◽  
Sensitivity Experiments ◽  
Field Samples

Ablation on the Greenland ice Sheet can be calculated either from the degree-day factor or by an energy balance model. Both approaches involve problems. i.e. the degree-day factor varies with time and space while the energy balance model requires data which are often not available. The solution is to understand, and possibly predict variations in degree-day factor. This can be attempted by (1) sensitivity experiments with the energy balance model, and (2) field samples of ablation under widely varying climatic conditions.

scholarly journals Response of the Energy Balance on the Margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Temperature Changes

1990 ◽  
Vol 36 (123) ◽  
pp. 217-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger J. Braithwaite ◽  
Ole B. Olesen
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Energy Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Energy Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Sensible Heat

AbstractDaily ice ablation on two outlet glaciers from the Greenland ice sheet, Nordbogletscher (1979–83) and Qamanârssûp sermia (1980–86), is related to air temperature by a linear regression equation. Analysis of this ablation-temperature equation with the help of a simple energy-balance model shows that sensible-heat flux has the greatest temperature response and accounts for about one-half of the temperature response of ablation. Net radiation accounts for about one-quarter of the temperature response of ablation, and latent-heat flux and errors account for the remainder. The temperature response of sensible-heat flux at QQamanârssûp sermia is greater than at Nordbogletscher mainly due to higher average wind speeds. The association of high winds with high temperatures during Föhn events further increases sensible-heat flux. The energy-balance model shows that ablation from a snow surface is only about half that from an ice surface at the same air temperature.

scholarly journals Simulation of the future sea level contribution of Greenland with a new glacial system model

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 3097-3121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reinhard Calov ◽  
Sebastian Beyer ◽  
Ralf Greve ◽  
Johanna Beckmann ◽  
Matteo Willeit ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
System Model ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass

Abstract. We introduce the coupled model of the Greenland glacial system IGLOO 1.0, including the polythermal ice sheet model SICOPOLIS (version 3.3) with hybrid dynamics, the model of basal hydrology HYDRO and a parameterization of submarine melt for marine-terminated outlet glaciers. The aim of this glacial system model is to gain a better understanding of the processes important for the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise under future climate change scenarios. The ice sheet is initialized via a relaxation towards observed surface elevation, imposing the palaeo-surface temperature over the last glacial cycle. As a present-day reference, we use the 1961–1990 standard climatology derived from simulations of the regional atmosphere model MAR with ERA reanalysis boundary conditions. For the palaeo-part of the spin-up, we add the temperature anomaly derived from the GRIP ice core to the years 1961–1990 average surface temperature field. For our projections, we apply surface temperature and surface mass balance anomalies derived from RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios created by MAR with boundary conditions from simulations with three CMIP5 models. The hybrid ice sheet model is fully coupled with the model of basal hydrology. With this model and the MAR scenarios, we perform simulations to estimate the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea level rise until the end of the 21st and 23rd centuries. Further on, the impact of elevation–surface mass balance feedback, introduced via the MAR data, on future sea level rise is inspected. In our projections, we found the Greenland ice sheet to contribute between 1.9 and 13.0 cm to global sea level rise until the year 2100 and between 3.5 and 76.4 cm until the year 2300, including our simulated additional sea level rise due to elevation–surface mass balance feedback. Translated into additional sea level rise, the strength of this feedback in the year 2100 varies from 0.4 to 1.7 cm, and in the year 2300 it ranges from 1.7 to 21.8 cm. Additionally, taking the Helheim and Store glaciers as examples, we investigate the role of ocean warming and surface runoff change for the melting of outlet glaciers. It shows that ocean temperature and subglacial discharge are about equally important for the melting of the examined outlet glaciers.

scholarly journals Response of the Energy Balance on the Margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Temperature Changes

1990 ◽  
Vol 36 (123) ◽  
pp. 217-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger J. Braithwaite ◽  
Ole B. Olesen
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Energy Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Energy Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Sensible Heat

AbstractDaily ice ablation on two outlet glaciers from the Greenland ice sheet, Nordbogletscher (1979–83) and Qamanârssûp sermia (1980–86), is related to air temperature by a linear regression equation. Analysis of this ablation-temperature equation with the help of a simple energy-balance model shows that sensible-heat flux has the greatest temperature response and accounts for about one-half of the temperature response of ablation. Net radiation accounts for about one-quarter of the temperature response of ablation, and latent-heat flux and errors account for the remainder. The temperature response of sensible-heat flux at QQamanârssûp sermia is greater than at Nordbogletscher mainly due to higher average wind speeds. The association of high winds with high temperatures during Föhn events further increases sensible-heat flux. The energy-balance model shows that ablation from a snow surface is only about half that from an ice surface at the same air temperature.

Trends and projections in ice sheet mass balance

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Shepherd ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Global Sea Level

<p>In recent decades, the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets have been major contributors to global sea-level rise and are expected to be so in the future. Although increases in glacier flow and surface melting have been driven by oceanic and atmospheric warming, the degree and trajectory of today’s imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite records of changes in polar ice sheet volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of their mass balance. <strong>Since the early 1990’s, ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland have caused global sea-levels to rise by 18.4 millimetres, on average, and there has been a sixfold increase in the volume of ice loss over time. Of this total, 41 % (7.6 millimetres) originates from Antarctica and 59 % (10.8 millimetres) is from Greenland. In this presentation, we compare our reconciled estimates of Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet mass change to IPCC projection of sea level rise to assess the model skill in predicting changes in ice dynamics and surface mass balance.  </strong>Cumulative ice losses from both ice sheets have been close to the IPCC’s predicted rates for their high-end climate warming scenario, which forecast an additional 170 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 when compared to their central estimate.</p>

scholarly journals Increased Ablation at the Margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet under a Greenhouse-Effect Climate

1990 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 20-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger J. Braithwaite ◽  
Ole B. Olesen
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Greenhouse Effect ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Ablation Rate ◽  
Summer Temperature ◽  
Energy Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climatic Warming ◽  
West Greenland

Increased ablation under a greenhouse-effect climate is calculated by an energy-balance model for two sites at the margin of the Greenland ice sheet: Nordbogletscher, south Greenland, and Qamanârssûp sermia, West Greenland. The change in summer ablation is nearly linear with change in summer temperature, with gradients of 0.43 and 0.57 m water a−1 deg−1 for Nordbogletscher and Qamanârssûp sermia, respectively. However, the increase in ablation rate must be less in the higher parts of the ice sheet. A future climatic warming will therefore cause a rapid retreat of the ice-sheet margin and a steeper ice-sheet profile.

scholarly journals Simulation of the future sea level contribution of Greenland with a new glacial system model

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reinhard Calov ◽  
Sebastian Beyer ◽  
Ralf Greve ◽  
Johanna Beckmann ◽  
Matteo Willeit ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
System Model ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass

Abstract. We introduce the coupled model of the Greenland glacial system IGLOO 1.0, including the polythermal ice sheet model SICOPOLIS (version 3.3) with hybrid dynamics, the model of basal hydrology HYDRO and a parameterization of submarine melt for marine-terminated outlet glaciers. Aim of this glacial system model is to gain a better understanding of the processes important for the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise under future climate change scenarios. The ice sheet is initialized via a relaxation towards observed surface elevation, imposing the palaeo-surface temperature over the last glacial cycle. As a present-day reference, we use the 1961-1990 standard climatology derived from simulations of the regional atmosphere model MAR with ERA reanalysis boundary conditions. For the palaeo-part of the spin-up, we add the temperature anomaly derived from the GRIP ice core to the years 1961–1990 average surface temperature field. For our projections, we apply surface temperature and surface mass balance anomalies derived from RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios created by MAR with boundary conditions from simulations with three CMIP5 models. The hybrid ice sheet model is fully coupled with the model of basal hydrology. With this model and the MAR scenarios, we perform simulations to estimate the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea level rise until the end of the 21st and 23rd centuries. Further on, the impact of elevation-surface mass balance feedback, introduced via the MAR data, on future sea level rise is inspected. In our projections, we found the Greenland ice sheet to contribute to global sea level rise between 1.9 and 13.0 cm until the year 2100 and between 3.5 and 76.4 cm until the year 2300, including our simulated additional sea level rise due to elevation-surface mass balance feedback. Translated into additional sea level rise, the strength of this feedback in the year 2100 varies from 0.4 to 1.7 cm, and in the year 2300 it ranges from 1.7 to 21.8 cm. Additionally, taking Helheim and Store Glaciers as examples, we investigate the role of ocean warming and surface runoff change for the melting of outlet glaciers. It shows that ocean temperature and subglacial discharge are about equally important for the melting of the examined outlet glaciers.

A regional atmospheric warming threshold for irreversible Greenland ice sheet mass loss

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michiel van den Broeke ◽  
Brice Noël ◽  
Leo van Kampenhout ◽  
Willem-Jan van de Berg
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Future

<p>The mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS, units Gt per year) equals the surface mass balance (SMB) minus solid ice discharge across the grounding line. As the latter is definite positive, an important threshold for irreversible GrIS mass loss occurs when long-term average SMB becomes negative. For this to happen, runoff (mainly meltwater, some rain) must exceed mass accumulation (mainly snowfall minus sublimation). Even for a single year, this threshold has not been passed since at least 1958, the first year with reliable estimates of SMB components, although recent years with warm summers (e.g. 2012 and 2019) came close. Simply extrapolating the recent (1991-present) negative SMB trend into the future suggests that the SMB = 0 threshold could be reached before ~2040, but such predictions are extremely uncertain given the very large interannual SMB variability, the relative brevity of the time series and the uncertainty in future warming. In this study we use a cascade of models, extensively evaluated with in-situ and remotely sensed (GRACE) SMB observations, to better constrain the future regional warming threshold for the 5-year average GrIS SMB to become negative. To this end, a 1950-2100 climate change run with the global model CESM2 (app. 100 km resolution) was dynamically downscaled using the regional climate model RACMO2 (app. 11 km), which in turn was statistically downscaled to 1 km resolution. The result is a threshold regional Greenland warming of close to 4 degrees. We then use a range of CMIP5 and CMIP6 global climate models to translate the regional value into a global warming threshold for various warming scenarios, including its timing this century. We find substantial differences, ranging from stabilization before the threshold is reached in the RCP/SSP2.6 scenarios with a limited but still significant sea-level rise contribution (< 5 cm by 2100) to an imminent crossing of the warming threshold for the RCP/SSP8.5 scenarios with substantial and ever-growing contributions to sea level rise (> 10 cm by 2100). These results stress the need for strong mitigation to avoid irreversible GrIS mass loss. We finish by discussing the caveats and uncertainties of our approach.</p>

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