Long-term Cosmic-ray Modulation during Solar Cycle 23

Author(s):  
Helen Mavromichalaki
2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen Mavromichalaki ◽  
Evangelos Paouris

The cosmic ray modulation in relation to solar activity indices and heliospheric parameters during the period January 1996–October 2011, covering the solar cycle 23 and the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, is studied. The new perspective of this contribution is that the CME-index, obtained from only the CMEs with angular width greater than 30 degrees, gives much better results than in previous works. The proposed model for the calculation of the modulated cosmic ray intensity obtained from the combination of solar indices and heliospheric parameters gives a very satisfactory value of the standard deviation. The best reproduction of the cosmic ray intensity is obtained by taking into account solar and interplanetary indices such as sunspot number, interplanetary magnetic field, CME-index, and heliospheric current sheet tilt. The standard deviation between the observed and calculated values is about 6.63% for the solar cycle 23 and 4.13% for the ascending part of solar cycle 24.


Radiocarbon ◽  
1980 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giuliana Castagnoli ◽  
Devendra Lal

This paper is concerned with the expected deviations in the production rate of natural 14C on the earth due to changes in solar activity. We review the published estimates of the global production rates of 14C due to galactic and solar cosmic ray particles, and present new estimates of the expected secular variations in 14C production, taking into account the latest information available on galactic cosmic ray modulation and long-term variations in solar activity.


2003 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 863-867 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Mursula ◽  
I. G. Usoskin ◽  
G. A. Kovaltsov

Abstract. It was recently suggested (Lockwood, 2001) that the cosmic ray intensity in the neutron monitor energy range is linearly related to the coronal source flux, and can be reconstructed for the last 130 years using the long-term coronal flux estimated earlier. Moreover, Lockwood (2001) reconstructed the coronal flux for the last 500 years using a similar linear relation between the flux and the concentration of cosmogenic 10 Be isotopes in polar ice. Here we show that the applied linear relations are oversimplified and lead to unphysical results on long time scales. In particular, the cosmic ray intensity reconstructed by Lockwood (2001) for the last 130 years has a steep trend which is considerably larger than the trend estimated from observations during the last 65 years. Accordingly, the reconstructed cosmic ray intensity reaches or even exceeds the local interstellar cosmic ray flux around 1900. We argue that these unphysical results obtained when using linear relations are due to the oversimplified approach which does not take into account the complex and essentially nonlinear nature of long-term cosmic ray modulation in the heliosphere. We also compare the long-term cosmic ray intensity based on a linear treatment with the reconstruction based on a recent physical model which predicts a considerably lower cosmic ray intensity around 1900.Key words. Interplanetary physics (cosmic rays; heliopause and solar wind termination) – Geomagnetism and paleomagnetism (time variations, secular and long-term)


2011 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 66-70
Author(s):  
R. Agarwal ◽  
R. Mishra

Galactic Cosmic Ray Modulation Up to Recent Solar Cycles Cosmic ray neutron monitor counts obtained by different ground-based detectors have been used to study the galactic cosmic ray modulation during the last four solar activity cycles. Since long, systematic correlative studies have been per-formed to establish a significant relationship between the cosmic ray intensity and different helio-spheric activity parameters, and the study is extended to a recent solar cycle (23). In the present work, the yearly average of 10.7 cm solar radio flux and the interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, B) have been used to find correlation of the yearly average cosmic ray intensity derived from different neutron monitors. It is found that for four solar cycles (20-23) the cosmic ray intensity is anti-correlated with the 10.7 cm solar radio flux and the IMF, B value with some discrepancy. However, this is in a good positive correlation with the flux of mentioned wavelength for four different solar cycles. The IMF, B shows a weak correlation with cosmic rays for solar cycle 20, and a good anti-correlation for solar cycles 21-23.


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