scholarly journals Risk and reward of the global truffle sector under predicted climate change

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomas Cejka ◽  
Elizabeth Isaac ◽  
Daniel Oliach ◽  
Fernando Martinez-Pena ◽  
Simon Egli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Production Rates ◽  
Price Levels ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Climate change has been described as the main threat for the cultivation and growth of truffles, but hydroclimate variability and model uncertainty challenge regional projections and adaptation strategies of the emerging sector. Here, we conduct a literature review to define the main Périgord truffle growing regions around the world and use 20 global climate models to assess the impact of future trends and extremes in temperature, precipitation and soil moisture on truffle production rates and price levels in all cultivation regions in the Americas, Europe, South Africa, and Australasia. Climate model simulations project 2.3 million km2 of suitable land for truffle growth will experience 50% faster aridification than the rests of the global land surface, with significantly more heat waves between 2070 and 2099 CE. Overall, truffle production rates will decrease by ~15%, while associated price levels will increase by ~36%. At the same time, a predicted increase in summer precipitation and less intense warming over Australasia will likely alleviate water scarcity and support higher yields of more affordable truffles. Our findings are relevant for truffle farmers and businesses to adapt their irrigation systems and management strategies to future climate change.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIRO-Mk3·0 global climate model

2016 ◽  
Vol 155 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. SILVA ◽  
L. KUMAR ◽  
F. SHABANI ◽  
M. C. PICANÇO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Open Field ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYTomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is one of the most important vegetable crops globally and an important agricultural sector for generating employment. Open field cultivation of tomatoes exposes the crop to climatic conditions, whereas greenhouse production is protected. Hence, global warming will have a greater impact on open field cultivation of tomatoes rather than the controlled greenhouse environment. Although the scale of potential impacts is uncertain, there are techniques that can be implemented to predict these impacts. Global climate models (GCMs) are useful tools for the analysis of possible impacts on a species. The current study aims to determine the impacts of climate change and the major factors of abiotic stress that limit the open field cultivation of tomatoes in both the present and future, based on predicted global climate change using CLIMatic indEX and the A2 emissions scenario, together with the GCM Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)-Mk3·0 (CS), for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that large areas that currently have an optimum climate will become climatically marginal or unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes due to progressively increasing heat and dry stress in the future. Conversely, large areas now marginal and unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes will become suitable or optimal due to a decrease in cold stress. The current model may be useful for plant geneticists and horticulturalists who could develop new regional stress-resilient tomato cultivars based on needs related to these modelling projections.

A simple approach to mimic the effect of active vegetation in hydrological models to better estimate hydrological variables under climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thedini Asali Peiris ◽  
Petra Döll
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Net Radiation ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
The Impact

<p>Unlike global climate models, hydrological models cannot simulate the feedbacks among atmospheric processes, vegetation, water, and energy exchange at the land surface. This severely limits their ability to quantify the impact of climate change and the concurrent increase of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations on evapotranspiration and thus runoff. Hydrological models generally calculate actual evapotranspiration as a fraction of potential evapotranspiration (PET), which is computed as a function of temperature and net radiation and sometimes of humidity and wind speed. Almost no hydrological model takes into account that PET changes because the vegetation responds to changing CO<sub>2</sub> and climate. This active vegetation response consists of three components. With higher CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations, 1) plant stomata close, reducing transpiration (physiological effect) and 2) plants may grow better, with more leaves, increasing transpiration (structural effect), while 3) climatic changes lead to changes in plants growth and even biome shifts, changing evapotranspiration. Global climate models, which include dynamic vegetation models, simulate all these processes, albeit with a high uncertainty, and take into account the feedbacks to the atmosphere.</p><p>Milly and Dunne (2016) (MD) found that in the case of RCP8.5 the change of PET (computed using the Penman-Monteith equation) between 1981- 2000 and 2081-2100 is much higher than the change of non-water-stressed evapotranspiration (NWSET) computed by an ensemble of global climate models. This overestimation is partially due to the neglect of active vegetation response and partially due to the neglected feedbacks between the atmosphere and the land surface.</p><p>The objective of this paper is to present a simple approach for hydrological models that enables them to mimic the effect of active vegetation on potential evapotranspiration under climate change, thus improving computation of freshwater-related climate change hazards by hydrological models. MD proposed an alternative approach to estimate changes in PET for impact studies that is only a function of the changes in energy and not of temperature and achieves a good fit to the ensemble mean change of evapotranspiration computed by the ensemble of global climate models in months and grid cells without water stress. We developed an implementation of the MD idea for hydrological models using the Priestley-Taylor equation (PET-PT) to estimate PET as a function of net radiation and temperature. With PET-PT, an increasing temperature trend leads to strong increases in PET. Our proposed methodology (PET-MD) helps to remove this effect, retaining the impact of temperature on PET but not on long-term PET change.</p><p>We implemented the PET-MD approach in the global hydrological model WaterGAP2.2d. and computed daily time series of PET between 1981 and 2099 using bias-adjusted climate data of four global climate models for RCP 8.5. We evaluated, computed PET-PT and PET-MD at the grid cell level and globally, comparing also to the results of the Milly-Dunne study. The global analysis suggests that the application of PET-MD reduces the PET change until the end of this century from 3.341 mm/day according to PET-PT to 3.087 mm/day (ensemble mean over the four global climate models).</p><p>Milly, P.C.D., Dunne K.A. (2016). DOI:10.1038/nclimate3046.</p>

scholarly journals An observation-constrained multi-physics WRF ensemble for simulating European mega heat waves

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 2285-2298 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. I. Stegehuis ◽  
R. Vautard ◽  
P. Ciais ◽  
A. J. Teuling ◽  
D. G. Miralles ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Cold Bias ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Many climate models have difficulties in properly reproducing climate extremes, such as heat wave conditions. Here we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model with a large combination of different atmospheric physics schemes, in combination with the NOAH land-surface scheme, with the goal of detecting the most sensitive physics and identifying those that appear most suitable for simulating the heat wave events of 2003 in western Europe and 2010 in Russia. In total, 55 out of 216 simulations combining different atmospheric physical schemes have a temperature bias smaller than 1 °C during the heat wave episodes, the majority of simulations showing a cold bias of on average 2–3 °C. Conversely, precipitation is mostly overestimated prior to heat waves, and shortwave radiation is slightly overestimated. Convection is found to be the most sensitive atmospheric physical process impacting simulated heat wave temperature across four different convection schemes in the simulation ensemble. Based on these comparisons, we design a reduced ensemble of five well performing and diverse scheme configurations, which may be used in the future to perform heat wave analysis and to investigate the impact of climate change during summer in Europe.

Global hydrology modelling and uncertainty: running multiple ensembles with a campus grid

2010 ◽  
Vol 368 (1926) ◽  
pp. 4005-4021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon N. Gosling ◽  
Dan Bretherton ◽  
Keith Haines ◽  
Nigel W. Arnell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Resource Stress ◽  
Runoff Changes ◽  
Campus Grid ◽  
The Impact

Uncertainties associated with the representation of various physical processes in global climate models (GCMs) mean that, when projections from GCMs are used in climate change impact studies, the uncertainty propagates through to the impact estimates. A complete treatment of this ‘climate model structural uncertainty’ is necessary so that decision-makers are presented with an uncertainty range around the impact estimates. This uncertainty is often underexplored owing to the human and computer processing time required to perform the numerous simulations. Here, we present a 189-member ensemble of global river runoff and water resource stress simulations that adequately address this uncertainty. Following several adaptations and modifications, the ensemble creation time has been reduced from 750 h on a typical single-processor personal computer to 9 h of high-throughput computing on the University of Reading Campus Grid. Here, we outline the changes that had to be made to the hydrological impacts model and to the Campus Grid, and present the main results. We show that, although there is considerable uncertainty in both the magnitude and the sign of regional runoff changes across different GCMs with climate change, there is much less uncertainty in runoff changes for regions that experience large runoff increases (e.g. the high northern latitudes and Central Asia) and large runoff decreases (e.g. the Mediterranean). Furthermore, there is consensus that the percentage of the global population at risk to water resource stress will increase with climate change.

scholarly journals Peatlands and the carbon cycle: from local processes to global implications – a synthesis

2008 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 1475-1491 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Limpens ◽  
F. Berendse ◽  
C. Blodau ◽  
J. G. Canadell ◽  
C. Freeman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Trace Gas ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Ecosystem Structure ◽  
Positive Feedbacks

Abstract. Peatlands cover only 3% of the Earth's land surface but boreal and subarctic peatlands store about 15–30% of the world's soil carbon (C) as peat. Despite their potential for large positive feedbacks to the climate system through sequestration and emission of greenhouse gases, peatlands are not explicitly included in global climate models and therefore in predictions of future climate change. In April 2007 a symposium was held in Wageningen, the Netherlands, to advance our understanding of peatland C cycling. This paper synthesizes the main findings of the symposium, focusing on (i) small-scale processes, (ii) C fluxes at the landscape scale, and (iii) peatlands in the context of climate change. The main drivers controlling C fluxes are largely scale dependent and most are related to some aspects of hydrology. Despite high spatial and annual variability in Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), the differences in cumulative annual NEE are more a function of broad scale geographic location and physical setting than internal factors, suggesting the existence of strong feedbacks. In contrast, trace gas emissions seem mainly controlled by local factors. Key uncertainties remain concerning the existence of perturbation thresholds, the relative strengths of the CO2 and CH4 feedback, the links among peatland surface climate, hydrology, ecosystem structure and function, and trace gas biogeochemistry as well as the similarity of process rates across peatland types and climatic zones. Progress on these research areas can only be realized by stronger co-operation between disciplines that address different spatial and temporal scales.

scholarly journals Ecological niche modelling predicts significant impacts of future climate change on two endemic rodents in eastern Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 18164-18176
Author(s):  
Aditya Srinivasulu ◽  
Alembrhan Assefa ◽  
Chelmala Srinivasulu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Niche Modelling ◽  
Climatic Scenarios ◽  
Bioclimatic Conditions ◽  
The Impact

The impact of climate change on rodents is well studied, however, many of these studies are restricted to the Americas.  Small- to medium-sized rodents, especially murids, are restricted in their home range and microclimatic niche breadth, and are known to be more sensitive to changes in bioclimatic conditions over time.  We analyzed the effect of future climatic scenarios in the near and distant future, using two global climate models (CanESM5 and MIROC-ES2L) for two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), on two eastern Africa endemic small-bodied mice: Stenocephalemys albipes and Mastomys awashensis. Our results indicate that while S. albipes showed increases in area of climatic suitability in the future, M. awashensis is predicted to suffer severe decline in the area of its fundamental niche.    

Examining the vulnerability of Australian eucalypts to future drought-induced tree mortality

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin De Kauwe ◽  
Manon Sabot ◽  
Andrew Pitman ◽  
Sami Rifai ◽  
Patrick Meir ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Eucalyptus Species ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
The Impact

<p>Australia is the driest inhabited continent. Annual rainfall is low and is accompanied by marked inter-annual variability, leading to multi-year droughts. Climate change is expected to alter the frequency, magnitude, and intensity of future droughts, with potentially major environmental and socio-economic consequences for Australia. However, Australian vegetation is well adapted to extended dry periods, thus, the likelihood of drought-induced mortality in the future depends both on the severity of future drought events and inherent vegetation resilience. Here, we used the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) land surface model, coupled with a stomatal optimisation scheme, to examine the projected impact of future drought for 24 Eucalyptus species. We forced CABLE with future climate from four global climate models (MIROC, ECHAM, CCCMA, and CSIRO) dynamically downscaled by three regional climate models. We separated the impact of climate change (e.g. increasing VPD, precipitation variability) from rising CO<sub>2</sub> (increasing water use-efficiency) to provide the first assessment of future drought risk to Australian trees.</p>

scholarly journals New Insights in Regional Climate Change: Coupled Land Albedo Change Estimation in Greenland from 1981 to 2017

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 756
Author(s):  
Fei Peng ◽  
Haoran Zhou ◽  
Gong Chen ◽  
Qi Li ◽  
Yongxing Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
The Past

Land albedo is an essential variable in land surface energy balance and climate change. Within regional land, albedo has been altered in Greenland as ice melts and runoff increases in response to global warming against the period of the pre-industrial revolution. The assessment of spatiotemporal variation in albedo is a prerequisite for accurate prediction of ice sheet loss and future climate change, as well as crucial prior knowledge for improving current climate models. In our study, we employed the satellite data product from the global land surface satellite (GLASS) project to obtain the spatiotemporal variation of albedo from 1981 to 2017 using the non-parameter-based M-K (Mann-Kendall) method. It was found that the albedo generally showed a decreasing trend in the past 37 years (−0.013 ± 0.001 decade−1, p < 0.01); in particular, the albedo showed a significant increasing trend in the middle part of the study area but a decreasing trend in the coastal area. The interannual and seasonal variations of albedo showed strong spatial-temporal heterogeneity. Additionally, based on natural and anthropogenic factors, in order to further reveal the potential effects of spatiotemporal variation of albedo on the regional climate, we coupled climate model data with observed data documented by satellite and adopted a conceptual experiment for detections and attributions analysis. Our results showed that both the greenhouse gas forcing and aerosol forcing induced by anthropogenic activities in the past 37 decades were likely to be the main contributors (46.1%) to the decrease of albedo in Greenland. Here, we indicated that overall, Greenland might exhibit a local warming effect based on our study. Albedo–ice melting feedback is strongly associated with local temperature changes in Greenland. Therefore, this study provides a potential pathway to understanding climate change on a regional scale based on the coupled dataset.

Anthropogenic Influences on Tornadic Storms

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-57
Author(s):  
Emily Bercos-Hickey ◽  
Christina M. Patricola ◽  
William A. Gallus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Tornadic Storms ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into

AbstractThe impact of climate change on severe storms and tornadoes remains uncertain, largely owing to inconsistencies in observational data and limitations of climate models. We performed ensembles of convection-permitting climate model simulations to examine how three tornadic storms would change if similar events were to occur in pre-industrial and future climates. The choice of events includes winter, nocturnal, and spring tornadic storms to provide insight into how the timing and seasonality of storms may affect their response to climate change. Updraft helicity (UH), convective available potential energy (CAPE), storm relative helicity (SRH), and convective inhibition (CIN) were used to determine the favorability for the three tornadic storm events in the different climate states. We found that from the pre-industrial to present, the potential for tornadic storms decreased in the winter event and increased in the nocturnal and spring events. With future climate change, the potential for tornadic storms increased in the winter and nocturnal events in association with increased CAPE, and decreased in the spring event despite greater CAPE.

Summer Heatwaves in Present and Future Climate simulated with global models participating in CMIP6

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanfeng Zhao ◽  
Frederique Cheruy
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
Model Analysis ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Health Food

&lt;p&gt;Heat waves lead to major impacts on human health, food production and ecosystems, and are projected to increase with climate change. This study evaluates global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) for their performance in simulating the present climate characteristics of summer heat waves. The analysis exploits the available global datasets (reanalyses, satellite products, gridded in-situ observations) to assess the realism of variables impacting the energy and water balance at the surface during heatwave events.The role of the underlying processes affecting the occurrence and intensity of the heat waves characteristics in present and future climate is also investigated based on the multi-model analysis.&amp;#160; A sensitivity study performed with the coupled atmospheric and land-surface modules of the IPSL climate model helps to support the multi-model analysis. A robust impact of the soil moisture on the dispersion of the heat-wave characteristics is diagnosed.&amp;#160; For 2 models it is possible to analyse the moist heat waves whose intensity and frequency is dramatically increased with respect to the dry heat waves at the end of the 21th century.&lt;/p&gt;

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