The PPP View of Multihorizon Currency Risk Premiums

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail Chernov ◽  
Drew Creal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Discount Factor ◽  
Stochastic Discount Factor ◽  
Current Interest ◽  
Yield Curves ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Nonmonotonic Function

Abstract Exposures of expected future nominal depreciation rates to the current interest rate differential violate the UIP hypothesis in a pattern that is a nonmonotonic function of horizon. Forward expected nominal depreciation rates are monotonic. We explain the two patterns by simultaneously incorporating the weak form of PPP into a joint model of the stochastic discount factor, the nominal exchange rate, and domestic and foreign yield curves. Departures from PPP generate the first pattern. The risk premiums for these departures generate the second pattern. Thus, the variance of the stochastic discount factor is related to the real exchange rate.

scholarly journals Dynamic Relationship between RMB Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Based on VAR-DCC-GARCH Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. 03018
Author(s):  
Xuhang Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Interest Rate Volatility

Based on the daily data of Shibor and nominal exchange rate from 2006 to 2019, this paper constructs VAR model and uses Granger causality test and impulse response model to analyze the dynamic relationship between exchange rate and interest rate. Based on the DCC-GARCH model, this paper analyzes the correlation between exchange rate volatility and interest rate volatility, and concludes that there is a weak negative correlation between exchange rate and interest rate. Both exchange rate and monetary policy will have an important impact on China’s economic environment, so it is of great practical significance to study the joint impact of exchange rate and monetary policy.

scholarly journals The Impact Of Budget Deficits On Macro-Economic Variables In The Nigerian Economy (1981 – 2012)

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (11) ◽  
pp. 164-183
Author(s):  
B.O Osuka ◽  
Achinihu Joy Chioma
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of budget deficits on macro-economic variables in the Nigerian economy for theperiod 1981-2012. This study sought to find out if there is a long-run relationship between budget deficits and other macro-economic variables in Nigeria. The study used the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) methods for finding out the presence of unit root in all variables and found that they are stationary at first differencing; they are 1(1). We also used Johansen Cointegration test to check for the cointegration of the variables and found that the variables in the study are all cointegrated of order one showing the presence of long-run relationship between budget deficits and our selected macro-economic variables ( GDP, interest rate, nominal exchange rate and inflation rate). The Granger Causality results reveal that there is a uni-directional Granger-causality between Budget deficits and GDP with GDP granger causing budget deficit. However, the test for causality showed that there exists no causality between deficits and interest rate, budget deficits and inflation and budget deficit and nominal exchange rate. We thereby concluded that budget deficits exert significant impact on the macro-economic performance of the Nigerian economy. The study recommend that since budget deficits could crowd-in investment through its reducing effects in interest rate, but emphasis should be placed on capital goods expenditure to make it have positive effect on GDP and thereby contribute to economic growth and development.

scholarly journals MONETARY TRANSMISSION OF PERSISTENT SHOCK TO THE RISK PREMIUM: THE CASE OF INDONESIA

2011 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 435-468
Author(s):  
Akhis R. Hutabarat
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Cost Channel ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

This paper investigates the relative importance of monetary transmission channel to inflation of passing persistent shock to the risk premium. The findings show that nominal exchange rate depreciation, triggered by a more persistent shock to interest risk premium, worsens the state of the economy in the short- and long-run. Such distinctive shocks effect is transmitted through the economy that typifies lack of response of consumer price disinflation to interest rate tightening caused by high real rigidity, strong cost channel of interest rate, strong cost channel of exchange rate pass-through and weak demand-side channel of exchange rate pass-through. This study suggests a proper monetary policy response, which is the smallest interest rate increases within the feasible set of monetary policy responses that the model recommends, to minimize the adverse effects of the shocks.Keywords: Exchange rate, Balance of Payment, Monetary transmission and policy, Dynamic General Equilibrium.JEL Classification: F41; E52; D58

Potentials and Positive Interest

2019 ◽  
pp. 317-330
Author(s):  
Tomas Björk
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Potential Theory ◽  
Discount Factor ◽  
Rate Theory ◽  
Stochastic Discount Factor ◽  
Two Alternatives

In this chapter we describe two approaches to interest rate theory which are built on probabilistic potential theory. This approach leads to positive interest rates and there is a nice connection to the stochastic discount factor. We present two alternatives: the Flesaker–Hughston approach, and the Rogers approach.

scholarly journals Oil Prices and Firm Returns in an Emerging Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 166-187
Author(s):  
Esin Cakan ◽  
Sercan Demiralay ◽  
Veysel Ulusoy
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Information Diffusion ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Level Data

This study examines the oil price effect on Turkish stock market as an emerging country on firm level data. After controlling short term interest rate, nominal exchange rate and crude oil price, we find that firms behave differently to a change in oil prices. The findings include these: i) variations in oil prices do not significantly affect Turkish firm returns. Out of 153, only 38 firms are affected significantly by oil price after controlling exchange rate and interest rate; ii) oil prices influence stock returns of Turkish firms, suggesting that under reaction and gradual information diffusion hypotheses may hold. iii) small and middle-sized firms are more affected negatively from oil price changes, where large-sized firms affected more positively. The empirical findings of this study have potential implications and offer significant insights for both practitioners and policy makers.

scholarly journals EFFECT ANALYSIS OF BANKING SECTOR REFORM AND GROSS MANUFACTURING OUTPUT IN NIGERIA: IMPLICATIONS FOR ACHIEVING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOAL 9

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-147
Author(s):  
Dike Okechukwu ◽  
◽  
Nwogwugu Uche ◽  
Kalu Chris ◽  
Eze Eze ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Sustainable Development Goal ◽  
Sector Reform ◽  
Development Goal ◽  
Interest Rate Spread

No doubt, structural transformation lies at the heart of economic progress of any nation. Most significantly, the industrial sector, especially manufacturing, is a key engine of growth and development. Unfortunately, manufacturing development in Nigeria, over the years have not improved despite the banking sector reforms. This paper empirically investigated the shock effects of the banking sector reform on gross manufacturing output in Nigeria between the period 1970-2018. The variables used in the paper include gross manufacturing output, bank credit to the manufacturing sector, interest rate spread, nominal exchange rate, market capitalization, manufacturing capacity utilization and a dummy variable. The data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, International Monetary Fund Financial Reports and the World Bank Development Indicator (2019). The Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) estimation techniques were employed to achieve the objective of the paper. The results showed that gross manufacturing output responded negatively to bank credit during all the reforms phases. It further revealed that it responded negatively to a unit shock in exchange rate during the pre-SAP and bank recapitalization periods, but positively during the deregulation, regulation and liberalization periods. It showed also that gross manufacturing output responded negatively to shock in interest rate spread during all reform phases in Nigeria. The policy implication of these findings attested to the fact that the linkage between the banking sector and real sector is weak in Nigeria. Hence for Sustainable Development Goal 9, in particular 9.2, to be achieved, the linkage between both critical sectors must be integrated and strengthened via improving on the banking sector fundamentals and introduction of shock measures from the reform.

scholarly journals Preferences of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru and optimal monetary rules in the inflation targeting regime

2012 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-42
Author(s):  
Nilda Mercedes Cabrera Pasca ◽  
Edilean Kleber da Silva Bejarno Aragón ◽  
Marcelo Savino Portugal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Rank Order ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Monetary Authority ◽  
Output Stabilization ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Monetary Rules

This study aims to identify the preferences of the monetary authority in the Peruvian regime of inflation targeting through the derivation of optimal monetary rules. To achieve that, we used a calibration strategy based on the choice of values of the parameters of preferences that minimize the square deviation between the true interest rate and interest rate optimal simulation. The results showed that the monetary authority has applied a system of flexible inflation targeting, prioritizing the stabilization of inflation, but without disregarding gradualism in interest rates. On the other hand, concern over output stabilization has been minimal, revealing that the output gap has been important because it contains information about future inflation and not because it is considered a variable goal in itself. Finally, when the smoothing of the nominal exchange rate is considered in the loss function of the monetary authority, the rank order of preferences has been maintained and the smoothing of the exchange rate proved insignificant.

scholarly journals Cash Flows Discounted Using a Model-Free SDF Extracted under a Yield Curve Prior

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 100
Author(s):  
A. Ronald Gallant ◽  
George Tauchen
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Extraction Procedure ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Discount Factor ◽  
External Information ◽  
Stochastic Discount Factor ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Model Free

We developed a model-free Bayesian extraction procedure for the stochastic discount factor under a yield curve prior. Previous methods in the literature directly or indirectly use some particular parametric asset-pricing models such as with long-run risks or habits as the prior. Here, in contrast, we used no such model, but rather, we adopted a prior that enforces external information about the historically very low levels of U.S. short- and long-term interest rates. For clarity and simplicity, our data were annual time series. We used the extracted stochastic discount factor to determine the stripped cash flow risk premiums on a panel of industrial profits and consumption. Interestingly, the results align very closely with recent limited information (bounded rationality) models of the term structure of equity risk premiums, although nowhere did we use any theory on the discount factor other than its implied moment restrictions.

scholarly journals Panel Analysis of Monetary Model of ASEAN-5 Exchange Rates

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Noor Zainab Tunggal ◽  
Shariff Umar Shariff Abd. Kadir ◽  
Venus-Khim Sen Liew
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Monetary Model ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rates ◽  
The Exchange Rate

In this study, we examined whether the exchange rates in ASEAN-5 countries are driven by monetary fundamentals. We applied the panel unit root tests and found that the United States denominated nominal exchange rates of Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian Rupiah, Philippines Peso, Singapore Dollar, and Thailand Baht are all integrated of order one. Meanwhile, relative money supply and relative real income are also integrated in the same order. Nonetheless, the relative interest rate is integrated in order zero, and it implies the uncovered interest rate parity held in ASEAN-5. By using a panel cointegration test pioneered by Pedroni (2000, 2004), we found evidence that there is a long-run relationship between nominal exchange rate and its monetary fundamentals. Consistent with the monetary model of the exchange rate, relative money supply is positively related to nominal exchange rates, while relative real income is negatively related to nominal exchange rates. Therefore, this study reveals the importance of relative real money supply and relative income for the exchange rate market players to predict and monitor ASEAN-5 exchange rates.

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