scholarly journals A Vaccination Simulator for COVID-19: Effective and Sterilizing Immunization Cases.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aknur Karabay ◽  
Askat Kuzdeuov ◽  
Michael Lewis ◽  
Atakan Huseyin Varol
Keyword(s):  
Region Of Interest ◽  
Complex Problem ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Mitigation Policy ◽  
Medical Outcomes ◽  
Viral Propagation ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Effective Immunization

Accurate modeling provides a means by which a complex problem can be examined for informed decision-making. We present a particle-based SEIR epidemic simulator as a tool to assess the impact of vaccination strategies on viral propagation and to model both sterilizing and effective immunization outcomes. The simulator includes modules to support contact tracing of the interactions amongst individuals as well as epidemiological testing of the general population. The simulator particles are distinguished by age, thus enabling a more accurate representation of the rates of infection and mortality in accordance with differential demographic susceptibilities and medical outcomes. The simulator can be calibrated by region of interest and variable vaccination strategies (i.e. random or prioritized by age) so as to enable locality-sensitive virus mitigation policy measures and resource allocation. The results described, based on the experience of the province of Lecco, Italy, indicate that the tool can be used to evaluate vaccination strategies in a way that incorporates local circumstances of viral propagation and demographic susceptibilities. Further, the simulator accounts for modeling the distinction between sterilizing immunization, in which immunized people are no longer contagious, and that of effective immunization, in which symptoms and mortality outcomes are diminished but individuals can still transmit the virus.

Competition Policy under Economic Crisis

2009 ◽  
pp. 54-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Shastitko ◽  
S. Avdasheva ◽  
S. Golovanova
Keyword(s):  
Division Of Labor ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Industrial Policy ◽  
Competition Policy ◽  
Transition Economy ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Price Rigidity ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
The Impact

The analysis of competition policy under economic crisis is motivated by the fact that competition is a key factor for the level of productivity. The latter, in its turn, influences the scope and length of economic recession. In many Russian markets buyers' gains decline because of the weakness of competition, since suppliers are reluctant to cut prices in spite of the decreasing demand. Data on prices in Russia and abroad in the second half of 2008 show asymmetric price rigidity. At least two questions are important under economic crisis: the 'division of labor' between pro-active and protective tools of competition policy and the impact of anti-crisis policy on competition. Protective competition policy is insufficient in transition economy, especially in the days of crisis it should be supplemented with the well-designed industrial policy measures which do not contradict the goals of competition. The preferable tools of anti-crisis policy are also those that do not restrain competition.

Art, Idleness and Food: The Ethics of War Communism and the Origins of Production Art, 1918–1919

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-287
Keyword(s):  
Theory And Practice ◽  
State Institutions ◽  
Early Production ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Soviet Ideology ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City ◽  
Further Development ◽  
Theory Of Production

The article examines the impact of the discourses concerning idleness and food on the formation of “production art” in the socio-political context of revolutionary Petrograd. The author argues that the development of the theory and practice of this early productionism was closely related to the larger political, social and ideological processes in the city. The Futurists, who were in the epicenter of Petrograd politics during the Civil War (1918–1921), were well acquainted with both of the discourses mentioned, and they contrasted the idleness of the old art with the dedicated labor of the “artist-proletarians” whom they valued as highly as people in the “traditional” working professions. And the search for the “right to exist” became the most important goal in a starving city dominated by the ideology of radical communism. The author departs from the prevailing approach in the literature, which links the artistic thought of the Futurists to Soviet ideology in its abstract, generalized form, and instead elucidates ideological influences in order to consider the early production texts in their immediate social and political contexts. The article shows that the basic concepts of production art (“artist-proletarian,” “creative labor,” etc.) were part of the mainstream trends in the politics of “red Petrograd.” The Futurists borrowed the popular notion of the “commune” for the title of their main newspaper but also worked with the Committees of the Rural Poor and with the state institutions for procurement and distribution. They took an active part in the Fine Art Department of Narkompros (People’s Commissariat of Education). The theory of production art was created under these conditions. The individualistic protest and “aesthetic terror” of pre-revolutionary Futurism had to be reconsidered, and new state policy measures were based on them. The harsh socio-economic context of war communism prompted artists to rethink their own role in the “impending commune.” Further development of these ideas led to the Constructivist movement and strongly influenced the extremely diverse trends within the “left art” of the 1920s.

scholarly journals The impact of COVID-19 on households´ income in the EU

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanda Almeida ◽  
Salvador Barrios ◽  
Michael Christl ◽  
Silvia De Poli ◽  
Alberto Tumino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Disposable Income ◽  
Income Loss ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
Discretionary Fiscal Policy ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

AbstractThis analysis makes use of economic forecasts for 2020 issued by the European Commission in Autumn 2019 and Spring 2020, and of a counterfactual under a no-policy change assumption, to analyse the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on EU households´ income. Additionally, our analysis assesses the cushioning effect of discretionary fiscal policy measures taken by the EU Member States. We find that the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to affect significantly households’ disposable income in the EU, with lower income households being more severely hit. However, our results show that due to policy intervention, the impact of the crisis is expected to be similar to the one experienced during the 2008–2009 financial crisis. In detail, our results indicate that discretionary fiscal policy measures will play a significant cushioning role, reducing the size of the income loss (from −9.3% to −4.3% for the average equivalised disposable income), its regressivity and mitigating the poverty impact of the pandemic. We conclude that policy interventions are therefore instrumental in cushioning against the impact of the crisis on inequality and poverty.

scholarly journals Digital proximity tracing on empirical contact networks for pandemic control

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Cencetti ◽  
G. Santin ◽  
A. Longa ◽  
E. Pigani ◽  
A. Barrat ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Physical Distance ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
The Impact

AbstractDigital contact tracing is a relevant tool to control infectious disease outbreaks, including the COVID-19 epidemic. Early work evaluating digital contact tracing omitted important features and heterogeneities of real-world contact patterns influencing contagion dynamics. We fill this gap with a modeling framework informed by empirical high-resolution contact data to analyze the impact of digital contact tracing in the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate how well contact tracing apps, coupled with the quarantine of identified contacts, can mitigate the spread in real environments. We find that restrictive policies are more effective in containing the epidemic but come at the cost of unnecessary large-scale quarantines. Policy evaluation through their efficiency and cost results in optimized solutions which only consider contacts longer than 15–20 minutes and closer than 2–3 meters to be at risk. Our results show that isolation and tracing can help control re-emerging outbreaks when some conditions are met: (i) a reduction of the reproductive number through masks and physical distance; (ii) a low-delay isolation of infected individuals; (iii) a high compliance. Finally, we observe the inefficacy of a less privacy-preserving tracing involving second order contacts. Our results may inform digital contact tracing efforts currently being implemented across several countries worldwide.

scholarly journals The Impact of Policy Measures on Human Mobility, COVID-19 Cases, and Mortality in the US: A Spatiotemporal Perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 996
Author(s):  
Yun Li ◽  
Moming Li ◽  
Megan Rice ◽  
Haoyuan Zhang ◽  
Dexuan Sha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Information Campaigns ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

Social distancing policies have been regarded as effective in containing the rapid spread of COVID-19. However, there is a limited understanding of policy effectiveness from a spatiotemporal perspective. This study integrates geographical, demographical, and other key factors into a regression-based event study framework, to assess the effectiveness of seven major policies on human mobility and COVID-19 case growth rates, with a spatiotemporal emphasis. Our results demonstrate that stay-at-home orders, workplace closures, and public information campaigns were effective in decreasing the confirmed case growth rate. For stay-at-home orders and workplace closures, these changes were associated with significant decreases (p < 0.05) in mobility. Public information campaigns did not see these same mobility trends, but the growth rate still decreased significantly in all analysis periods (p < 0.01). Stay-at-home orders and international/national travel controls had limited mitigation effects on the death case growth rate (p < 0.1). The relationships between policies, mobility, and epidemiological metrics allowed us to evaluate the effectiveness of each policy and gave us insight into the spatiotemporal patterns and mechanisms by which these measures work. Our analysis will provide policymakers with better knowledge regarding the effectiveness of measures in space–time disaggregation.

scholarly journals Working Memory, Fluid Reasoning, and Complex Problem Solving: Different Results Explained by the Brunswik Symmetry

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 5
Author(s):  
André Kretzschmar ◽  
Stephan Nebe
Keyword(s):  
Working Memory ◽  
Problem Solving ◽  
Cognitive Abilities ◽  
Latent Variables ◽  
Complex Problem ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Complex Problem Solving ◽  
Symmetry Principle ◽  
Fluid Reasoning ◽  
The Impact

In order to investigate the nature of complex problem solving (CPS) within the nomological network of cognitive abilities, few studies have simultantiously considered working memory and intelligence, and results are inconsistent. The Brunswik symmetry principle was recently discussed as a possible explanation for the inconsistent findings because the operationalizations differed greatly between the studies. Following this assumption, 16 different combinations of operationalizations of working memory and fluid reasoning were examined in the present study (N = 152). Based on structural equation modeling with single-indicator latent variables (i.e., corrected for measurement error), it was found that working memory incrementally explained CPS variance above and beyond fluid reasoning in only 2 of 16 conditions. However, according to the Brunswik symmetry principle, both conditions can be interpreted as an asymmetrical (unfair) comparison, in which working memory was artificially favored over fluid reasoning. We conclude that there is little evidence that working memory plays a unique role in solving complex problems independent of fluid reasoning. Furthermore, the impact of the Brunswik symmetry principle was clearly demonstrated as the explained variance in CPS varied between 4 and 31%, depending on which operationalizations of working memory and fluid reasoning were considered. We argue that future studies investigating the interplay of cognitive abilities will benefit if the Brunswik principle is taken into account.

scholarly journals Exploring the effectiveness of a COVID-19 contact tracing app using an agent-based model

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonatan Almagor ◽  
Stefano Picascia
Keyword(s):  
High Rate ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Social ◽  
Behavioural Factors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
User Rate

AbstractA contact-tracing strategy has been deemed necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 following the relaxation of lockdown measures. Using an agent-based model, we explore one of the technology-based strategies proposed, a contact-tracing smartphone app. The model simulates the spread of COVID-19 in a population of agents on an urban scale. Agents are heterogeneous in their characteristics and are linked in a multi-layered network representing the social structure—including households, friendships, employment and schools. We explore the interplay of various adoption rates of the contact-tracing app, different levels of testing capacity, and behavioural factors to assess the impact on the epidemic. Results suggest that a contact tracing app can contribute substantially to reducing infection rates in the population when accompanied by a sufficient testing capacity or when the testing policy prioritises symptomatic cases. As user rate increases, prevalence of infection decreases. With that, when symptomatic cases are not prioritised for testing, a high rate of app users can generate an extensive increase in the demand for testing, which, if not met with adequate supply, may render the app counterproductive. This points to the crucial role of an efficient testing policy and the necessity to upscale testing capacity.

scholarly journals A Person-to-Person and Person-to-Place COVID-19 Contact Tracing System Based on OGC IndoorGML

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soroush Ojagh ◽  
Sara Saeedi ◽  
Steve H. L. Liang
Keyword(s):  
Data Model ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Large Body ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Sequential Order ◽  
Human Contact ◽  
Wide Availability ◽  
Data Points ◽  
The Impact

With the wide availability of low-cost proximity sensors, a large body of research focuses on digital person-to-person contact tracing applications that use proximity sensors. In most contact tracing applications, the impact of SARS-CoV-2 spread through touching contaminated surfaces in enclosed places is overlooked. This study is focused on tracing human contact within indoor places using the open OGC IndoorGML standard. This paper proposes a graph-based data model that considers the semantics of indoor locations, time, and users’ contexts in a hierarchical structure. The functionality of the proposed data model is evaluated for a COVID-19 contact tracing application with scalable system architecture. Indoor trajectory preprocessing is enabled by spatial topology to detect and remove semantically invalid real-world trajectory points. Results show that 91.18% percent of semantically invalid indoor trajectory data points are filtered out. Moreover, indoor trajectory data analysis is innovatively empowered by semantic user contexts (e.g., disinfecting activities) extracted from user profiles. In an enhanced contact tracing scenario, considering the disinfecting activities and sequential order of visiting common places outperformed contact tracing results by filtering out unnecessary potential contacts by 44.98 percent. However, the average execution time of person-to-place contact tracing is increased by 58.3%.

scholarly journals How detection ranges and usage stops impact digital contact tracing effectiveness for COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantin D. Pandl ◽  
Scott Thiebes ◽  
Manuel Schmidt-Kraepelin ◽  
Ali Sunyaev
Keyword(s):  
Disease Spread ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Behavioral Characteristics ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Detection Range ◽  
Proximity Detection ◽  
Effective Technology ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Effectiveness And Efficiency ◽  
The Impact

AbstractTo combat the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries around the globe have adopted digital contact tracing apps. Various technologies exist to trace contacts that are potentially prone to different types of tracing errors. Here, we study the impact of different proximity detection ranges on the effectiveness and efficiency of digital contact tracing apps. Furthermore, we study a usage stop effect induced by a false positive quarantine. Our results reveal that policy makers should adjust digital contact tracing apps to the behavioral characteristics of a society. Based on this, the proximity detection range should at least cover the range of a disease spread, and be much wider in certain cases. The widely used Bluetooth Low Energy protocol may not necessarily be the most effective technology for contact tracing.

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