Dynamic lag structure of deposits and loans interest rates and business cycles formation

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 114-132
Author(s):  
Bijan Bidabad ◽  
Abul Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Structural Dynamic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real

Purpose This paper aims to study the structural dynamic behaviour of the depositors, banks and investors and the role of banks in the business cycles. The authors test the hypothesis: do banks’ behaviour make oscillations in the economy via interest rate? Design/methodology/approach The authors dichotomized banking activities into two markets: deposit and loan. The first market forms deposit interest rate, and the second market forms credit interest rate. The authors show that these two types of interest rates have non-synchronized structures, and that is why money sector fluctuation starts. As a result, the fluctuation is transferred to the real economy through saving and investment functions. Findings The empirical results show that in the USA, the banking system creates fluctuations in money and real economy, as well as through interest rates. Short-term interest rates had complex roots in their characteristic, while medium and long-term interest rates, though they were second-order difference equations, had real characteristic roots. However, short-term interest rates are the source of oscillation and form the business cycles. Research limitations/implications The authors tested the hypothesis for USA economy, while it needs to be tested for other economies as well. Practical implications The results show that though the source of fluctuations in the real economy comes from short-term interest rates, medium- and long-term interest rates dampen real economy fluctuations and also work as economic stabilisers. Originality/value Regarding the applied method, the topic is new.

scholarly journals CANDIDE et la monnaie

2009 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-103
Author(s):  
Jean-Pierre Aubry ◽  
Pierre Duguay
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Structural Equations ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Structure Equations

Abstract In this paper we deal with the financial sector of CANDIDE 1.1. We are concerned with the determination of the short-term interest rate, the term structure equations, and the channels through which monetary policy influences the real sector. The short-term rate is determined by a straightforward application of Keynesian liquidity preference theory. A serious problem arises from the directly estimated reduced form equation, which implies that the demand for high powered money, but not the demand for actual deposits, is a stable function of income and interest rates. The structural equations imply the opposite. In the term structure equations, allowance is made for the smaller variance of the long-term rates, but insufficient explanation is given for their sharper upward trend. This leads to an overstatement of the significance of the U.S. long-term rate that must perform the explanatory role. Moreover a strong structural hierarchy, by which the long Canada rate wags the industrial rate, is imposed without prior testing. In CANDIDE two channels of monetary influence are recognized: the costs of capital and the availability of credit. They affect the business fixed investment and housing sectors. The potential of the personal consumption sector is not recognized, the wealth and real balance effects are bypassed, the credit availability proxy is incorrect, the interest rate used in the real sector is nominal rather than real, and the specification of the housing sector is dubious.

scholarly journals Does the Interest Rate Form Business Cycle?

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-34
Author(s):  
Bijan Bidabad ◽  
Abul Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Rate Form ◽  
The Interest Rate

Dynamic structural behavior of depositor, bank and borrower and the role of banks in forming business cycle are investigated. We test the hypothesis that does banks behavior make oscillations in the economy through the interest rate. By dichotomizing banking activities into two markets of deposit and loan, we show that these two markets have non-synchronized structures, and this is why the money sector fluctuation starts. As a result, the fluctuation is transmitted to the real economy through saving and investment functions. Empirical results assert that in the USA, the banking system creates fluctuations in the money sector and real economy as well through short-term interest rates

How loan interest rate liberalization affects firms’ loan maturity structure

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianfang Zhou ◽  
Jingjing Wang ◽  
Jianping Ding
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Interest Rate Liberalization ◽  
Upper Limit ◽  
Maturity Structure

Purpose – After loan interest rate upper limit deregulation in October 2004, the financing environment in China changed dramatically, and the banks were eligible for risk compensation. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the influence of the loan interest rate liberalization on firms’ loan maturity structure. Design/methodology/approach – Based on Rajan's (1992) model, the authors constructed a trade-off model of how the banks choose long-term and short-term loans scales, and further analyzed banks’ loan term decisions under the loan interest rate upper limit deregulation or collateral cases. Then the authors used an unbalanced panel data set of 586 Chinese listed manufacturing companies and 9,376 observations during the period 1996-2011 to testify the theoretical conclusion. Furthermore, the authors studied the effect on firms with different characteristics of ownership or scale. Findings – The results show that the loan interest rate liberalization significantly decreases the private companies’ reliance on short-term loans and increases sensitivity to interest rates of state-owned companies’ long-term loans. But the results also show that the companies’ ownership still plays a key role on the long-term loans availability. When monetary policy tightened, small companies still have to borrow short-term loans for long-term purposes. As the bank industry is still dominated by state-owned banks and the deposit interest rate has upper limits, the effect of the loan interest rate liberalization on easing long-term credit constraints is limited. Originality/value – From a new perspective, the content and findings of this paper contribute to the study of the effect of the interest rate liberalization on China economy.

Murabaha and Musharakah Moutanaquissah pricing: an interest-free approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 201-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rida Ahroum ◽  
Othmane Touri ◽  
Boujemâa Achchab
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Islamic Law ◽  
Profit Margin ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
Reputational Risk ◽  
Valuation Methodology ◽  
The Interest Rate

Purpose This study aims to provide an interest-free valuation methodology for Murabaha and Musharakah Moutanaquissah contracts. Indeed, In Islamic finance, Murabaha contracts are widely negotiated. Their yield depends mainly on the contracted profit margin. In the current practices, this latter is based on a reference interest rate, which is highly criticized in Islamic literature, just like Musharakah Moutanaquissah contracts. In this perspective, authors suggest a new valuation methodology with parameters related to the real economy. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply an indirect method to determine a lower bound of the profit margin of a Murabaha contract. Considering Musharakah Moutanaquissah as an equivalent contract, the new valuation methodology is based on participation and focuses on parameters from the real economy: the market rent and the rate of return used for an equivalent project. Findings The results show that the pricing of Musharakah Moutanaquissah contracts could be based on several parameters linked to the real economy. Consequently, an implied value of the profit margin could be computed. Also, the interest rate is no longer implicated in the pricing of neither Murabaha nor Musharakah Moutanaquissah contracts. Research limitations/implications The valuation methodology is applicable only if the underlying asset’s financing can be made with Murabaha and Musharakah Moutanaquissah contracts. Practical implications This work will restore the link between Islamic contracts and the real economy. For Islamic banks in particular, the suggested model would reduce the exposure to reputational risk and enhance the compliance to the Sharia (Islamic Law). Originality/value Several studies have analyzed the dependence between Islamic contracts and interest rates. In general, these studies confirm this dependence and few of them have suggested alternatives. Thus, the authors contribute to the literature by providing a practical and applicable model to detach the valuation of Murabaha and Musharakah Moutanaquissah from the interest rate.

scholarly journals WHAT IS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE RATES OF INTEREST AND PROFIT? AN EMPIRICAL NOTE FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY, 1869-2009

2013 ◽  
Vol 71 (280) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Valle Baeza ◽  
Ivan Mendieta Muñoz
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
United States Economy ◽  
Empirical Note ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Rate Of Profit

The current paper aims to contribute to the study of the relation between the interest rate and the rate of profit by presenting an empirical analysis of the United States economy during the period of 1869 to 2009. The main findings rendered are: 1) the general rate of profit has set an upper limit for the real short-term and long-term interest rates; 2) the real long-term interest rate has undergone similar changes to those of the general rate of profit, whereas the real short-term interest rate has experienced movements opposite to the latter; and 3) evidence supports heterodox theories which stress that monetary policy affects the distribution of income through the modification of the rate of profit.

The relationships between time deposit rates, real rates, inflation and risk premium

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1033-1053
Author(s):  
Siew-Peng Lee ◽  
Mansor Isa ◽  
Noor Azryani Auzairy
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Time Deposit ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Conventional And Islamic Banks

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of the real interest rates, inflation and risk premium on the time deposit rates of banks in the dual banking system in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach The data consists of 1-, 6- and 12-month average time deposit rates of conventional and Islamic banks over the period of January 2000 to June 2017. The cointegration methodologies are used to explore links between the time deposit rates, real rates, inflation and risk premium. The causality tests to test causality linkages between pairs of variables are also applied. The generalised forecast error variance decomposition based on the error correction model is conducted to analyse the impact of variables variation on the deposit rates. Findings The results show the presence of two cointegration vectors in the deposit rates, real rates, inflation and risk premium, for both conventional and Islamic bank rates. Causality tests reveal that deposit rates are caused by inflation and risk premium in a one-way causality. The results of variance decomposition highlight the importance of inflation and risk premium in explaining the variations in the bank deposit rates. For the conventional bank, inflation shocks play the most important role in explaining the movements of the deposit rates. In Islamic banks, the major determinant’s largest influence is the risk premium. Between the two bank rates, Islamic bank rates receive more influence from the explanatory variables in the long-run compared to conventional bank rates. The real rates have no noticeable effect on the variance of time deposit rates for both banks. Originality/value This study presents new evidence on the relationship between time deposit rates and the three explanatory variables, which are the real interest rates, inflation and risk premium, for both conventional and Islamic banks in Malaysia. The dual banking system allows exploring the similarities and differences between conventional and Islamic banks in Malaysia in terms of the linkages between the variables.

scholarly journals A Multi – Speed Europe, and the Peripherality of Poland

e-Finanse ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-44
Author(s):  
Mateusz Mierzejewski ◽  
Karolina Palimąka
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Polish Economy

AbstractIn recent years, research on the synchronization of business cycles in economies has been undertaken more than once. This is a desirable phenomenon especially for the European Union. The aim of the article is to verify selected macroeconomic indicators that characterize the economies of countries belonging to the European Union in relation to Poland, thus presenting convergence of dynamic cycles of changes in socio-economic sphere indicators: inflation rate, unemployment rate, short-term interest rates, and GDP. For this purpose, a cross-spectral analysis was used which allows us to show the occurring fluctuations of different lengths, as well as to compare the strength of the relation of changes between selected indicators. According to the conducted analyses, it was noted that the Polish economy (in the perspective of long-term changes) is a determinant of changes for highly developed countries.

scholarly journals Credit Cycles: Econometric Analysis and Evidence for Russia

2014 ◽  
pp. 113-122
Author(s):  
N. V. Artamonov ◽  
D. V. Artamonov ◽  
V. A. Artamonov
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Credit Cycles ◽  
Real Gdp

One of the principal problem in contemporary macroeconomics is concerned with factors increasing or decreasing economic dynamics. The mainstream approach is based on neoclassical assumptions, but recently new approaches appear mostly based on new Keynesian concepts. In present time the influence of monetary market and credit instruments become more and more significant. Credit resources of banking and financial structures can affect and distort to reallocation of resources for national and even for global economic. In present paper an empiric and econometric analysis for some macroeconometric and monetary indices for Russian Federation is done. An econometrical models describing the influence of credit variables onto real GDP is estimated. It is shown that in short-term periods changes in credit variables do influence significantly onto GDP. It is shown that on short-term periods changes in money aggregate M2 brings influence (through credit variables) onto national output. As well it is shown that changes in short-term interest rate brings significant negative influence onto real output. Impulse response functions for GDP on shocks of credit variables, monetary base and short-term interest rate are evaluated. For the present study of credit cycles and their impact to real business cycles statistical data (quarterly time series) on the following factors for Russian Federation are collected: nominal and real GDP, monetary base M2, short-term interest rate, long-term interest rate (10-year treasuries bill rate), total debt outstanding. All time series are seasonally adjusted and collected for the period 2004 Q1 - 2013 Q2. All interest rates are adjusted for inflation (i.e. we deal with real interest rates). The investigation of long-term relationship for the factors under consideration are based on integration. It is important to note that in the present paper all econometric models are estimated on "pure" statistical data, while in many research papers on business and credit cycles all evaluations and inferences are based on "filtered" time series (mostly filtered by Hodrick-Prescott's method). In present paper "causality" always means "Granger causality". All estimations are made in gretl, an open-source multiplatform econometric software.

scholarly journals ROLE OF THE FINANCIAL SECTOR IN FINANCING THE ENTERPRISES OF THE REAL SECTOR OF THE ECONOMY

2018 ◽  
pp. 78-84
Author(s):  
Dmytro Malysh
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
The Real

Introduction. Financial sector plays an important role in the financing of business entities in the real economy sector. A possibility of rising funds through the stock or banking sector enables substantially to expand the scope of enterprises. However, the presence of permanent financial crises does not allow companies to use these opportunities in full. Therefore, the assessment of state and trends of the stock and banking sectors in the context of the use of their funds to finance companies in the real sector of the economy becomes important. Purpose. The article aims to identify contemporary issues of development of the stock and banking sectors in the context of their ability to finance companies in the real economy. Method. In order to achieve the goal of the research we have used the following methods: method of structural and dynamic analysis and method of economic and statistical analysis of the development of the stock and banking sectors of Ukraine. Results. It has been determined that the deterioration of the stock market in Ukraine led to its exclusion from the list of marginal markets. The largest segment of the Ukrainian stock and banking sector services the issuers, which are owned by the state. At the same time, the financial sector has features of bank-centeredness since banks play a leading role in financing of companies and in transactions of the stock market. Ukrainian stock market mainly carries out operations with government bonds and only a small part of operations provides financing for the activities of companies through the issue of stocks and bonds. The share of long-term sources of funding is gradually decreasing and it is critically low for economic growth of the country. The tempos of providing long-term and short-term bank loans for the company are slowing down. A positive trend is the reduction of interest rates on loans. There is a need to develop effective measures for using opportunities of the stock and banking sectors as well for financing companies in the real sector of the economy.

scholarly journals Modeling The Relationships Between Export, Import, Inflation, Interest Rate, and Rupiah Exchange

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 247-262
Author(s):  
Nina Valentika ◽  
Vivi Iswanti Nursyirwan ◽  
Ilmadi Ilmadi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Variable Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Long Run

This research was a modification of research by Catalbas (2016) and Pratikto (2012). The model that can separate long-term and short-term components are the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). This study aimed to model export, import, inflation, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate using VECM and to test the causality between variables using the Granger Causality test. The inter-variable model obtained in this study was VECM with lag 2 using a deterministic trend with the assumption of none intercept no trend and two cointegrations. In export and import, there was an adjustment mechanism from the short-term to the long-term. This research model was appropriate to forecast the export and import where VECM with export and import as the target variables, the cointegration equation (long-run model) for  cointegration equation (long-run model) for Based on the Granger Causality test, it was found that there was a one-way relationship between exchange rates and inflation, export and interest rates, export and import, inflation and export, and import and the interest rate at the significance level of 5%.

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