LEARNING FROM THE TERM STRUCTURE OF IMPLIED VOLATILITY IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE OPTIONS

Author(s):  
José Manuel Campa ◽  
P. H. Kevin Chang
2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 439
Author(s):  
Lamya Kermiche ◽  
Philippe Dupuy

According to general asset pricing theory, options should reward their holders for the systematic risk they are bearing. In this paper, we study the returns of foreign exchange options. We find that, by sorting options according to the distance of their implied volatility from the historical volatility, we obtain portfolios with positive average monthly returns. These returns are not explained by standard aggregate risk factors, which suggest either that additional risk factors should be accounted for, or that investors behavior differs from the traditional paradigm of rational agents.


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