ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF MIGRATION AND BRAIN DRAIN AFTER MAJOR CATASTROPHE: THE CASE OF HURRICANE KATRINA

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (01) ◽  
pp. 1950004
Author(s):  
QIN FAN ◽  
MERI DAVLASHERIDZE
Keyword(s):  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
Brain Drain ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
College Graduates ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
County Level ◽  
Permanent Loss ◽  
Regional Product

We develop a county-level recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Orleans Parish (OP) to examine local economic impacts of migration and brain drain after Hurricane Katrina. To incorporate hurricane-induced brain drain in the CGE model, we use a reduced-form model to estimate the change in the share of college graduates caused by hurricane-induced damages. Calibrating the model using pre-disaster social accounting matrices (SAMs) in 2004, we find that permanent loss in population and skilled labor results in 33.57% decline in county-level gross regional product (GRP) in 2012 relative to the 2012 business as usual scenario (BAU) that assumes steady annual growth without Hurricane Katrina. Interestingly, we find that skill loss causes larger decline in GRP than overall decline in population. After accounting for post-disaster public assistance by recalibrating model using 2012 SAMs, we find a lower declining rate of 6.36% in GRP.

Economic Impacts of Introducing a New Low Carbon City in Johor Bahru, Malaysia - A CGE Modelling Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 735 ◽  
pp. 238-242
Author(s):  
Shamsunnahar Khanam ◽  
M.J.M.M. Noor ◽  
Zamri Mohamed ◽  
Yuzuru Miyata
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Population Census ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Input Output ◽  
New Production ◽  
Output Table ◽  
Cge Modelling ◽  
Low Carbon City

The Johor Bahru metropolitan area is an industrial and commercial hotspot in the region and almost any significant industrial brand has a branch here. However, the effectiveness of good and effective industrial policy has never been quantified to integrate economy and environment. Taking into account the idea ‘think globally, act locally’, with an emphasis on economy, environment integration, and introducing a Low Carbon City, by building a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this study successfully examined the economic impacts of new production and the usefulness of economic measure based on the simulated macroeconomic and sectoral factors. An input-output (I-O) table and social accounting matrix (SAM) is the cornerstone in designing a CGE model. Lack of input-output table has badly hampered any effects in the arena of CGE modelling in Johor Bahru City. This study, therefore, attempted to utilize the most updated 2005 input-output table of Malaysia to prepare an input-output table of Johor Bahru City along with using several statistics, including the national population census, manufacturing census and commerce census for developing an input-output table for economic analysis. Modelling results showed that the total industrial output including city GDP has increased 0.07% and 0.08% respectively in 2005. Additionally, the decreasing trends of the prices of major commodity products such as solar power( -1.53 %), electric vehicle ( -0.77%) and in cogeneration (-0.32 % ) were observed significant. Thus, new industrial formation and subsidy plan have proven as the most significant contributors. Therefore, the present research suggests to apply this model into Johor Bahru City’s economy to integrate economy and environment in a city named ‘Low Carbon City-JB’.

scholarly journals ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHANGES IN AN ALASKA CRAB FISHERY FROM OCEAN ACIDIFICATION

2015 ◽  
Vol 06 (04) ◽  
pp. 1550017 ◽  
Author(s):  
CHANG K. SEUNG ◽  
MICHAEL G. DALTON ◽  
ANDRÉ E. PUNT ◽  
DUSANKA POLJAK ◽  
ROBERT FOY
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Acidification ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Bioeconomic Model ◽  
Bristol Bay ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
World Price ◽  
Induced Changes ◽  
Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium

A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is linked to a bioeconomic model for the Bristol Bay red king crab (BBRKC) fishery to analyze regional economic impacts of ocean acidification (OA)-induced changes in fishery yields. Yield projections based on two alternative forms (linear versus nonlinear) of OA effects on the survival of juvenile BBRKC are compared to a baseline without OA effects. Results demonstrate considerable uncertainty in yields, and show that economic impacts are sensitive to the form of OA effects, and to changes in the world price of BBRKC (Q22, Q54, Q57, R13).

Assessing economic impacts of internet adoption through reduced pulp and paper demand

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (10) ◽  
pp. 1381-1391
Author(s):  
T.O. Ochuodho ◽  
C.M.T. Johnston ◽  
P. Withey
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Forest Products ◽  
The United States ◽  
Pulp And Paper ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Net Benefit ◽  
Internet Adoption ◽  
The World

We use a dynamic, global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to capture the economic impacts of internet adoption, modeled through reduced demand in the newsprint and printing and writing paper (pulp and paper) industries. Global newsprint consumption is estimated to fall dramatically by 2030. We rely on estimates from another study that captures the change in global pulp and paper consumption using the global forest products model (GFPM), based on two scenarios: (i) full per capita internet adoption by 2100 and (ii) more rapid full internet adoption by 2050. We incorporate reductions in pulpwood consumption into a global multiregional dynamic CGE model to estimate economy-wide impacts in Canadian provinces, the United States, and the rest of the world. Results indicated that the year 2050 internet adoption scenario would result in a reduction in cumulative discounted gross domestic product (GDP) by as much as 17% in some regions of Canada, reduce GDP by 5.8% in the United States, and increase GDP by 3.3% in the rest of the world from 2006 to 2030. These findings highlight the costs of internet adoption, leaving net benefit analysis of adoption to future work.

scholarly journals The Issue of Macroeconomic Closure Revisited and Extended

2016 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-31
Author(s):  
Ernő Zalai ◽  
Tamás Révész
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Competitive Equilibrium ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Sector Model ◽  
Cge Models ◽  
Policy Simulations

Léon Walras (1874) had already realised that his neo-classical general equilibrium model could not accommodate autonomous investments. In the early 1960s, Amartya Sen analysed the same issue in a simple, one-sector macroeconomic model of a closed economy. He showed that fixing investment in the model, built strictly on neo-classical assumptions, would make the system overdetermined, and thus one should loosen some neo-classical conditions of competitive equilibrium. He analysed three not neo-classical “closure options”, which could make the model well-determined in the case of fixed investment. His list was later extended by others and it was shown that the closure dilemma arises in the more complex computable general equilibrium (CGE) models as well, as does the choice of adjustment mechanism assumed to bring about equilibrium at the macro level. It was also illustrated through several numerical models that the adopted closure rule can significantly affect the results of policy simulations based on a CGE model. Despite these warnings, the issue of macro closure is often neglected in policy simulations. It is, therefore, worth revisiting the issue and demonstrating by further examples its importance, as well as pointing out that the closure problem in the CGE models extends well beyond the problem of how to incorporate autonomous investments into a CGE model. Several closure rules are discussed in this paper and their diverse outcomes are illustrated by numerical models calibrated on statistical data. First, the analyses are done in a one-sector model, similar to Sen’s, but extended into a model of an open economy. Next, the same analyses are repeated using a fully-fledged multi-sectoral CGE model, calibrated on the same statistical data. Comparing the results obtained by the two models it is shown that although they generate quite similar results in terms of the direction and — to a somewhat lesser extent — of the magnitude of change in the main macro variables using the same closure option, the predictions of the multi-sectoral CGE model are clearly more realistic and balanced.

scholarly journals Trade Barrier Elimination, Economics of Scale and Market Competition: Computable General Equilibrium Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-216
Author(s):  
Widyastutik Widyastutik ◽  
Suahasil Nazara ◽  
Rina Oktaviani ◽  
Djamester Simarmata
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Market Competition ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Trade Barriers ◽  
Sea Transport ◽  
Competitive Effects ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
Economics Of Scale ◽  
Transport Services

The ASEAN and its dialogue partner countries agreed to reduce trade barriers in the services sector, one of which is sea transport services. The purpose of this study is to estimate the equivalent tax of non-tariff barriers in the sea transport services. Besides that, this study is going to analyze the economic impacts of the regulatory barriers elimination in the sea transport services of ASEAN and its dialogue partner countries. Using the gravity model, it can be identified that trade barriers of sea transport services sector of ASEAN and dialogue partner countries are still relatively high. Additionally, by adopting IC-IRTS model in Global CGE Model (GTAP), the simulation results show consistent results with the theory of pro-competitive effects. The greater gain from trade is obtained in the CGE model assuming IC-IRTS compared to PC-CRTS. China gains a greater benefit that is indicated by the highest increase in welfare and GDP followed by Japan and AustraliaDOI: 10.15408/sjie.v6i2.5279

scholarly journals Tourism taxes and negative externalities in tourism in australia: A CGE approach

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 200-214
Author(s):  
Ranjith Ihalanayake
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Negative Externalities ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Australian Economy ◽  
Short Run

In this paper we analyse general equilibrium effects of an increase in a tourism tax which we hypothetically designed to internalise negative externalities of international tourism in Australia. Several simulations were carried out using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Australian economy. The simulations were carried out assuming two different economic environments, the short-run and the long-run. The simulation results suggest that due to an increase in tourism taxes, the international tourism sector tends to contract while the other sectors expand. Overall, an increase in tourism taxes appears to be welfare improving in the long-run though it generates a marginal contraction in overall economic activities in the short run.

scholarly journals DAMPAK KERJA SAMA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA DENGAN EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION (EAEU) TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-180
Author(s):  
Deky Paryadi ◽  
Aziza Rahmaniar Salam
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Comparative Advantages ◽  
Vegetable Foodstuffs ◽  
Economic Union ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Eurasian Region ◽  
Elimination Scheme

 Abstrak Kawasan Eurasia merupakan wilayah yang penting secara geopolitik dan geostrategi bagi perdagangan Indonesia. Melihat potensi yang dimiliki oleh negara-negara yang tergabung dalam Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Indonesia diharapkan dapat memanfaatkan peluang yang terbuka. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui potensi daya saing komoditas serta dampak kerja sama perdagangan Indonesia-EAEU. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah Trade Complementary Index (TCI), Revealed Symetric Comparative Advantages (RSCA) dan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model dengan data dasar GTAP versi 9 menggunakan enam simulasi. Berdasarkan analisis TCI, tingkat kesesuaian ekspor EAEU terhadap struktur impor Indonesia lebih tinggi dibandingkan ekspor Indonesia terhadap struktur impor EAEU. Dengan melihat dampak kerja sama perdagangan Indonesia-EAEU terhadap makroekonomi Indonesia, penurunan tarif bea masuk sebesar 50% untuk seluruh produk Indonesia dan EAEU merupakan alternatif kebijakan terbaik. Indonesia perlu menjajaki kemungkinan kerja sama dengan EAEU dengan pendekatan berupa eliminasi 50% pada seluruh pos tarif secara bertahap. Selain itu, disarankan Indonesia fokus pada komoditas yang memiliki daya saing di pasar EAEU yaitu sektor animal; vegetable; foodstuffs; plastics/ rubber; raw hides; woods; textile; stone/glass; machinery; dan transportation.AbstractThe Eurasian region is an important area for Indonesia in term of geopolitic and geostrategy. Due to the economic potential of EAEU countries, Indonesia must take advantage of it. This study aims to determine the potential competitiveness of commodities and the impact of trade cooperation between Indonesia-EAEU. Methods used in this study were Trade Complementary Index (TCI), Revealed Symetric Comparative Advantages (RSCA) and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model utilizing basic data of GTAP version 9 of six simulations. By using TCI method it was found that the comformity level of EAEU's export to Indonesia's import structure is higher than Indonesia's exports to the EAEU import structure. Looking at the impact of Indonesia-EAEU trade cooperation on Indonesia’s economy, tariff reduction of 50% for all Indonesian products and EAEU is the best policy alternative for Indonesia. Therefore, It is a must to Indonesia to explore the possibility of cooperation with EAEU with a 50% elimination scheme gradually to all tariff lines. Indonesia should also focus on commodities which have competitiveness in EAEU market i.e. animal; vegetable; foodstuffs; plastics/rubber; raw hides; woods; textile; stone/glass; machinery; and transportation.

scholarly journals General Equilibrium Effects of Lower Labor Tax Burden in Croatia

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (s1) ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ozana Nadoveza ◽  
Tomislav Sekur ◽  
Marija Beg
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Tax Burden ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Domestic Production ◽  
Labor Tax ◽  
Endogenous Variables ◽  
Cge Modeling

AbstractThis paper examines the effects of lower labor tax burden in Croatia by using Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. It is a 5-sector (households, firms, government, investors and foreigners) model and economy is disaggregated on three highly aggregated sectors. One of the major advantages of CGE modeling is the evaluation of the overall effects of policy changes, shocks and reforms in the economy. We do this by lowering taxes on labor and simulating changes of all endogenous variables in the model simultaneously. Lastly, we provide sensitivity analysis results. Our results suggest that it is possible to encourage domestic production by reducing taxes on labor, but the potential effects on unemployment should be revised as to get more accurate estimates.

Can the Post-COVID FDI Boost the Indian Economy?

2022 ◽  
pp. 097226292110662
Author(s):  
Isha Jaswal ◽  
Badri Narayanan G ◽  
Shanu Jain
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Trade Policies ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

Ever since the liberation of trade policies in India, Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) has been crucial in the growth of the economy, both at the macro as well as sector level. The association between FDI and economic growth is an area of interest globally. The investment decisions are affected by several national and international events that add to the volatility of the number of inflows. COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted the intensity of FDI inflows. But the strong resilience by our government manifested in crucial policy reforms and proactive decision-making minimized the impact. This article examines the potential impact of FDI on crucial macroeconomic variables using the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model. Introducing the policy shock of $90 billion into the model, an increase of 5.68% per annum in GDP is estimated. Findings indicate that the impact of FDI shall be favourable to a large number of sectors mainly metals, construction, motor vehicle, computers, and electronics in terms of increased output, exports, and employment opportunities. The study offers logical implications for the policymakers to continue strengthening their moves to attract FDI.

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