Monthly Precipitation Trend Analysis by Applying Nonparametric Mann- Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s rho (SR) Tests In Dongting Lake, China: 1961-2012

Author(s):  
Muhammad Tayyab ◽  
Jianzhong Zhou ◽  
Rana Adnan ◽  
Aqeela Zahra

This research highlights the precipitation trends and presents the results of the study in temporal and spatial scales. Precise predictions of precipitation trends can play imperative part in economic growth of a state. This study examined precipitation inconsistency for 23 stations at the Dongting Lake, China, over a 52-years study phase (1961–2012). Statistical, nonparametric Mann- Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s rho (SR) tests were applied to identify trends within monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation. The trend-free prewhitening method used to exclude sequential correlation in the precipitation time series. The performance of the Mann- Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s rho (SR) tests was steady at the tested significance level. The results showed fusion of increasing (positive) and decreasing (negative) trends at different stations within monthly and seasonal time scale. In case of whole Dongting basin on monthly time scale, significant positive trend is found, while at Yuanjiang River and Xianjiag River both positive and negative significant trends are identified.

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ijaz Ahmad ◽  
Deshan Tang ◽  
TianFang Wang ◽  
Mei Wang ◽  
Bakhtawar Wagan

Accurately predicting precipitation trends is vital in the economic development of a country. This research investigated precipitation variability across 15 stations in the Swat River basin, Pakistan, over a 51-year study period (1961–2011). Nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s rho (SR) statistical tests were used to detect trends in monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation, and the trend-free prewhitening approach was applied to eliminate serial correlation in the precipitation time series. The results highlighted a mix of positive (increasing) and negative (decreasing) trends in monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation. One station in particular, the Saidu Sharif station, showed the maximum number of significant monthly precipitation events, followed by Abazai, Khairabad, and Malakand. On the seasonal time scale, precipitation trends changed from the summer to the autumn season. The Saidu Sharif station revealed the highest positive trend (7.48 mm/year) in annual precipitation. In the entire Swat River basin, statistically insignificant trends were found in the subbasins for the annual precipitation series; however, the Lower Swat subbasin showed the maximum quantitative increase in the precipitation at a rate of 2.18 mm/year. The performance of the MK and SR tests was consistent at the verified significance level.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 1584 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamidreza Mosaffa ◽  
Mojtaba Sadeghi ◽  
Negin Hayatbini ◽  
Vesta Afzali Gorooh ◽  
Ata Akbari Asanjan ◽  
...  

Spatiotemporal precipitation trend analysis provides valuable information for water management decision-making. Satellite-based precipitation products with high spatial and temporal resolution and long records, as opposed to temporally and spatially sparse rain gauge networks, are a suitable alternative to analyze precipitation trends over Iran. This study analyzes the trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation along with the contribution of each season and month in the annual precipitation over Iran for the 1983–2018 period. For the analyses, the Mann–Kendall test is applied to the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) estimates. The results of annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation trends indicate that the significant decreases in the monthly precipitation trends in February over the western (March over the western and central-eastern) regions of Iran cause significant effects on winter (spring) and total annual precipitation. Moreover, the increases in the amounts of precipitation during November in the south and south-east regions lead to a remarkable increase in the amount of precipitation during the fall season. The analysis of the contribution of each season and month to annual precipitation in wet and dry years shows that dry years have critical impacts on decreasing monthly precipitation over a particular region. For instance, a remarkable decrease in precipitation amounts is detectable during dry years over the eastern, northeastern, and southwestern regions of Iran during March, April, and December, respectively. The results of this study show that PERSIANN-CDR is a valuable source of information in low-density gauge network areas, capturing spatiotemporal variation of precipitation.


2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (4) ◽  
pp. 689-697 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phu Nguyen ◽  
Andrea Thorstensen ◽  
Soroosh Sorooshian ◽  
Kuolin Hsu ◽  
Amir Aghakouchak ◽  
...  

AbstractLittle dispute surrounds the observed global temperature changes over the past decades. As a result, there is widespread agreement that a corresponding response in the global hydrologic cycle must exist. However, exactly how such a response manifests remains unsettled. Here we use a unique recently developed long-term satellite-based record to assess changes in precipitation across spatial scales. We show that warm climate regions exhibit decreasing precipitation trends, while arid and polar climate regions show increasing trends. At the country scale, precipitation seems to have increased in 96 countries, and decreased in 104. We also explore precipitation changes over 237 global major basins. Our results show opposing trends at different scales, highlighting the importance of spatial scale in trend analysis. Furthermore, while the increasing global temperature trend is apparent in observations, the same cannot be said for the global precipitation trend according to the high-resolution dataset, PERSIANN-CDR, used in this study.


2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 525.1-525
Author(s):  
S. Tsiami ◽  
E. Ntasiou ◽  
C. Krogias ◽  
R. Gold ◽  
J. Braun ◽  
...  

Background:Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) is the most common nerve compression syndrome and a common extra-articular manifestation of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Different causes of CTS are known, among them inflammatory and non-inflammatory pathologies. Electroneurography (ENG) of the median nerve, the method of choice to diagnose CTS, measures impairment of nerve conduction velocity without explaining its underlying cause. However, because the electrical stimulation is often not well tolerated, ENG results may come out inconclusive. Using greyscale ultrasonography (GS-US) provides anatomic information including a structural representation of the carpal tunnel.Objectives:To investigate the performance of nerve GS-US in the diagnosis of CTS in patients with RA.Methods:Consecutive patients with active RA under suspicion of CTS presenting to a large rheumatologic center were included. Both hands were examined by an experienced neurologist including ENG and a GS-US (ML linear probe with 6-15 Hz) of the median nerve. An established grading system for ENG (1), and an established system for GS-US based on cut-offs for the nerve cross sectional area (CSA) [mild: 0,11-0,13cm2, moderate: 0,14-0,15 cm2, severe: > 0,15 cm2 CTS (2)] were used. In addition, the Boston Carpal Tunnel Syndrome Questionnaire (BCTSQ) was used to assess CTS symptoms (3).Results:Both hands of 58 patients with active RA (n=116) and clinical suspicion of CTS (in 38 cases bilaterally) were included. After clinical examination, CTS was suspicious in 96 hands (82.8%), and 59 of all hands had a final diagnosis of CTS (50.9%). Of the latter, 43 hands (72.9%) had a positive ENG and 16 (27.1%) a positive GS-US finding only, while 30 hands (50.8%) were positive in both examinations.There was a good correlation of the cross-sectional area (CSA) as well as the CSA-ratio to the ENG findings: the larger the CSA, the more severe was the CTS as assessed by ENG (Spearman’s rho=0.554; p<0.001). The more severe the GS-US findings of CTS were, the more definite were the distal motor latency (Spearman’s rho=0.554; p<0.001) and sensible nerve conduction velocity of the median nerve (Spearman’s rho=-0.5411; p<0.001).In the 46 hands positive in GS-US, tenosynovial hypertrophy of the flexor tendons was detected in 19 hands (41.3%), 7 of which (36.8%) also showed an additional cystic mass. In these 19 patients, clinical complains were more severely present than in patients with non-inflammatory CTS, as assessed by the BCTSQ with a total score of 68.8±13.4 vs. 59.3±13.7, respectively (p=0.007).Conclusion:In patients with active RA and clinical complains of CTS, ultrasound examinations provide additional information about inflammation which is helpful for a diagnosis of CTS. Thus, ENG and nerve GS-US should be used complementary for a diagnostic workup of CTS in RA patients with a suspicion of CTS. Power-Doppler may further improve the diagnostic performance of GS-US.References:[1]Padua L et al. Acta Neurol Scand 1997; 96:211–217[2]El Miedany et al., Rheumatology (Oxford). 2004 Jul; 43(7):887-895[3]Levine DW et al. J Bone Joint Surg Am 1993; 75: 1585-1592Figure 1.BCTSQ scores in patients with diagnosis of CTS and absence or presence of RA-related tenosynovial hypertrophyDisclosure of Interests:None declared


Author(s):  
Qiaoyong Liu ◽  
Yiqian Jiang ◽  
Lijun Shen ◽  
Jiming Zhu

AbstractObjectiveTo investigate the thyroid volume (Tvol) and to explore factors that affects it among 12 to 15-year-olds attending a rural middle school in east Hangzhou, China.MethodsA cross-sectional survey of middle school students attending a rural middle school in east Hangzhou, China was conducted. Height, weight and other physical development related indicators in middle school students were measured. The thyroid size was measured using ultrasound, and the thyroid volume calculated.ResultsThe median (P25, P75) of the thyroid volume in 596 middle school students from a rural middle school in east Hangzhou, China was 6.69 (5.66, 7.98) mL. Our study enrolled 305 male students (51.2%) and 291 female students (48.8%). The height, weight and thyroid volume of middle school students increased with age. Univariate analysis revealed that height, weight, body mass index (BMI) and body surface area (BSA) were positive correlated with thyroid volume (p<0.01).The correlation between BSA and thyroid volume was significant (Spearman’s rho=0.473, p<0.01). Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that BSA was positive and significantly correlated with the thyroid volume (p<0.05). Regression equation was Y=−2.532 + 6.186×BSA.ConclusionThe thyroid volume is not only affected by age, but it is also affected by growth and development. Goiter cannot only be assessed based on age, gender and thyroid volume. However, this study established that BSA not only presented the strongest correlation with thyroid volume (Spearman’s rho=0.473), but also had a strong correlation with physical development, taking into account the growth and development of middle school students, and showed greater stability. Therefore, we recommend inclusion of BSA as a reference standard in the measurement of the thyroid volume.


Vascular ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 170853812098630
Author(s):  
Dobroslav Kyurkchiev ◽  
Tsvetelina Yoneva ◽  
Adelina Yordanova ◽  
Ekaterina Kurteva ◽  
Georgi Vasilev ◽  
...  

Background Granulomatosis with polyangiitis (GPA) is a representative of vasculitides associated with anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic autoantibodies. “Classical” antibodies directed against proteinase 3 are involved in the pathogenesis and are part of the GPA diagnosis at the same time. Along with them, however, antibodies against Lysosomal-Associated Membrane Protein-2 (LAMP-2) and antibodies directed against plasminogen have been described in GPA. Objectives and methodology: We performed a cross-sectional study enrolling 34 patients diagnosed with GPA. Our study was aimed at looking for correlations between serum levels of LAMP-2 and plasminogen and the clinical manifestations of the GPA. Furthermore, we examined serum levels of tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) and its associated indoleamine-pyrrole 2,3-dioxygenase (IDO), as well as we looked for a correlation between these cytokines and the clinical manifestations of GPA. Results The results showed that in GPA, serum plasminogen levels were negatively associated with renal involvement (receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78) (95% CI 0.53–0.91), p = 0.035, and the extent of proteinuria, Spearman’s Rho = –0.4, p = 0.015. Increased levels of TNF-α and IDO correlated with disease activity, Spearman’s Rho =0.62, p = 0.001 and Spearman’s Rho = 0.4, p = 0.022, respectively, whereas only TNF-α was increased in severe forms of GPA with lung involvement (ROC AUC of 0.8) (95% CI 0.66–0.94), p = 0.005. Conclusions In this study, we demonstrate the alteration of soluble factors, which play an important role in the pathogenesis of GPA and their relationship with the clinical manifestations of the disease. Our main results confirm the associations of increased secretory TNF-α and some clinical manifestations, and we describe for the first time decreased serum plasminogen levels and their association with renal involvement.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Janine Verstraete ◽  
Lebogang Ramma ◽  
Jennifer Jelsma

Abstract Background Despite the high burden of disease in younger children there are few tools specifically designed to estimate Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) in children younger than 3 years of age. A previous paper described the process of identifying a pool of items which might be suitable for measuring HRQoL of children aged 0–3 years. The current paper describes how the items were pruned and the final draft of the measure, Toddler and Infant (TANDI) Health Related Quality of Life, was tested for validity and reliability. Methods A sample of 187 caregivers of children 1–36 months of age were recruited which included children who were either acutely ill (AI), chronically ill (CI) or from the general school going population (GP). The TANDI, an experimental version of the EQ-5D-Y proxy, included six dimensions with three levels of report and general health measured on a Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) from 0 to 100. The content validity had been established during the development of the instrument. The TANDI, Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ), Faces, Leg, Activity, Cry, Consolabilty (FLACC) or Neonatal Infant Pain Scale (NIPS) and a self-designed dietary information questionnaire were administered at baseline. The TANDI was administered 1 week later in GP children to establish test-retest reliability. The distribution of dimension scores, Cronbach’s alpha, rotated varimax factor analysis, Spearman’s Rho Correlation, the intraclass correlation coefficient, Pearson’s correlation, analysis of variance and regression analysis were used to explore the reliability, and validity of the TANDI. Results Concurrent validity of the different dimensions was tested between the TANDI and other instruments. The Spearman’s Rho coefficients were significant and moderate to strong for dimensions of activity and participation and significant and weak for items of body functions. Known groups were compared and children with acute illness had the lowest ranked VAS (median 60, range 0–100), indicating worse HRQoL. The six dimensions of the TANDI were tested for internal consistency and reliability and the Cronbach’s α as 0.83. Test-retest results showed no variance for dimension scores of movement and play, and high agreement for pain (83%), relationships (87%), communication (83%) and eating (74%). The scores were highly correlated for the VAS (ICC = 0.76; p < 0.001). Conclusion The TANDI was found to be valid and reliable for use with children aged 1–36 months in South Africa. It is recommended that the TANDI be included in future research to further investigate HRQoL and the impact of interventions in this vulnerable age group. It is further recommended that future testing be done to assess the feasibility, clinical utility, and cross-cultural validity of the measure and to include international input in further development.


Author(s):  
Herlinawati Herlinawati ◽  
Ngena Ria ◽  
Zuraidah Nasution

Fixed appliance atau disebut juga pesawat orthodonti cekat merupakan alat orthodonti yang dilengketkanlangsung pada gigi. Dewasa ini pemakaian fixed appliance semakin banyak diminati kawula muda untukmemperbaiki dan mengoptimalkan fungsi gigi sebagai alat kunyah dan untuk mengoptimalkan fungsiestetika gigi. Piranti fixed appliance memiliki bentuk yang rumit sehingga mempermudah lengketnya plaklebih lama dan dapat meningkatkan resiko terjadinya karies, gingivitis dan penyakit periodontal. Adanyapiranti fixed appliance yang menempel pada gigi-gigi akan menyulitkan untuk membersihkan gigi sehinggacenderung terjadi penumpukan plak pada gigi disekitar bracket dan mahkota gigi pada tepi gingival.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui hubungan perilaku mahasiswa yang memakai fixed appliancetentang menyikat gigi dengan nilai OHI-S di Poltekkes Kemenkes Medan. Jenis penelitian yang digunakanadalah survei analitik dengan desain cross sectional . Populasi dalam penelitian ini berjumlah 122 orang dansampel adalah seluruh populasi yaitu 122 orang (total populasi). instrumen yang dipakai yaitu kaca mulut,pinset, sonde, nier bekken, handuk bersih kuesioner dan formulir pemeriksaan. Analisis data bivariatdengan menggunakan uji chi-square dan Spearman’s rho dengan derajat kepercayaan 95% (α = 0,05).Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, diperoleh kategori pengetahuan mahasiswa tidak berhubungan dengan kriteriaOHI-S (p > 0,05) sedangkan kategori sikap dan tindakan mempunyai hubungan dengan kriteria OHI-S (p <0,05). Nilai OHI-S rata-rata adalah 2,68. Dianjurkan kepada mahasiswa yang menggunakan fixed applianceagar lebih meningkatkan kebersihan gigi dan mulutnya, mengiku


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ανδρομάχη Ρέκλου

Σκοπός: Η αρτηριακή σκληρία αποτελεί έναν ανεξάρτητο παράγοντα καρδιαγγειακού κινδύνου. Οι στατίνες πέρα από την υπολιπιδαιμική δράση εμφανίζουν πολλαπλές ευεργετικές πλειοτροπικές επιδράσεις στο καρδιαγγειακό σύστημα ενώ υπάρχουν δεδομένα ότι θα μπορούσαν να βελτιώσουν και την αρτηριακή σκληρία άμεσα. Σκοπός της παρούσης μελέτης ήταν η εκτίμηση της επίδρασης στατινών στην 24ωρη διακύμανση της αρτηριακής σκληρίας και της κεντρικής αορτικής πίεσης ασθενών με μεμονωμένη δυσλιπιδαιμία χωρίς συνοδά καρδιαγγειακά νοσήματα που δεν ελάμβαναν κάποια επιπλέον αγωγή.Μέθοδος: Πενήντα δύο αρχικά ασθενείς, τυχαιοποιήθηκαν, ώστε να λάβουν για 6 μήνες είτε μιας ισχυρής δράσης (ροσουβαστατίνη 10 mg) είτε μιας ήπιας δράσης στατίνη (σιμβαστατίνη 20mg) ,με σκοπό την επίτευξη του στόχου LDL-C <115 mg/dl. Εάν ένας ασθενής ,ανεξαρτήτως ομάδας, δε μπορούσε να επιτύχει τον στόχο της LDL-C στο τέλος του 1ου μήνα παρακολούθησης, αποκλειόταν από τη μελέτη. Από το σύνολο των 52 ασθενών, 44 ασθενείς, 22 σε κάθε ομάδα, πέτυχαν τον στόχο της LDL-C στο τέλος του 1ου μήνα και συνέχισαν στη μελέτη. Οι ασθενείς αυτοί εκτιμήθηκαν πριν και μετά την αγωγή ως προς τις παραμέτρους αρτηριακής σκληρίας: κεντρική αορτική πίεση (cBP), κεντρικό αυξητικό δείκτη (ΑIx) και ταχύτητα σφυγμικού κύματος (PWV). Η 24ωρη αρτηριακή σκληρία αξιολογήθηκε με τη βοήθεια της συσκευής Mobil-O-Graph 24h PWA Monitor. Παράλληλα πραγματοποιήθηκε συσχέτιση των παραμέτρων της αρτηριακής σκληρίας της επίσκεψη διαλογής και των δύο ομάδων ως προς τις δύο μεθόδους που χρησιμοποιήθηκαν (24ωρη καταγραφή με Mobil-O-Graph 24h PWA Monitor και με την συσκευή Sphygmocor) με συντελεστή συσχέτισης «spearman’s rho».Αποτελέσματα: Οι δυο ομάδες, παρουσίαζαν παρόμοια κατανομή ως προς τις βασικές παραμέτρους: ηλικία, φύλο, κάπνισμα, ΒΜΙ, ιστορικό υποθυρεοειδισμού αλλά και στη πλειονότητα των άλλων μετρήσεων. Παρατηρήθηκε ωστόσο μια διαφοροποίηση ως προς τα επίπεδα της LDL-C (με p <0.015) και της κεντρικής συστολικής πίεσης (με p <0.020) κατά την έναρξη της μελέτης, η οποία για την περίπτωση της LDL-C εξαλείφθηκε στους 6 μήνες ενώ για την περίπτωση της κεντρικής συστολικής πίεσης παρέμεινε σταθερή. Δεν διαπιστώθηκε, παρά την επιβεβαιωμένη επίτευξη του στόχου της LDL-C σε όλους τους ασθενείς, στατιστικώς σημαντική διαφοροποίηση σε κάποια από τις παραμέτρους της αρτηριακής σκληρίας, σε καμία από τις δύο ομάδες.Όπως ήταν αναμενόμενο, η μείωση της ολικής χοληστερόλης και της LDL-C, ήταν ιδιαίτερα εμφανείς και στις δύο ομάδες. Σε μικρότερο βαθμό και στις δύο ομάδες σημειώθηκε μείωση των τριγλυκεριδίων ενώ σχετικά με την HDL-C, οι τιμές αυξήθηκαν αλλά σε επίπεδα στατιστικώς μη σημαντικά. Επιπροσθέτως, στην ομάδα της ροσουβαστατίνης σημειώθηκε μείωση του ουρικού οξέος η οποία απουσίαζε στην ομάδα της σιμβαστατίνης. Είναι αξιοσημείωτο ότι οι δύο μέθοδοι, Mobil-O-Graph 24h PWA Monitor και Sphygmocor, εμφάνισαν ισχυρή συσχέτιση και στις δύο ομάδες (p<0.001) στις βασικές μετρήσεις για τη σκληριά που πραγματοποιήθηκαν στην επίσκεψη διαλογής: ταχύτητα σφυγμικού (PWV), κεντρικό αυξητικό δείκτη (Aix75), κεντρική συστολική, διαστολική πίεση και πίεση παλμού (cPP, cSBP και cDBP ). Ωστόσο , η συσχέτιση ήταν ασθενής δεδομένου ότι για όλες τις παραμέτρους της σκληρίας οι συντελεστές συσχέτισης ήταν χαμηλοί (R2 Linear <0.5).Συμπεράσματα: Σε ασθενείς χαμηλού καρδιαγγειακού κινδύνου με φυσιολογικές παραμέτρους αρτηριακής σκληρίας, η χορήγηση στατινών δεν ελαττώνει τη σκληρία και ως εκ τούτου θα πρέπει να πραγματοποιείται λόγω της υπολιπιδαιμικής δράσης τους και όχι για τα πλειοτροπικά χαρακτηριστικά τους τα οποία βέβαια, καλό είναι να λαμβάνονται υπόψη σε εξατομικευμένο επίπεδο.


2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 575-590 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel A. Bishop ◽  
A. Park Williams ◽  
Richard Seager ◽  
Arlene M. Fiore ◽  
Benjamin I. Cook ◽  
...  

Abstract Much of the eastern United States experienced increased precipitation over the twentieth century. Characterizing these trends and their causes is critical for assessing future hydroclimate risks. Here, U.S. precipitation trends are analyzed for 1895–2016, revealing that fall precipitation in the southeastern region north of the Gulf of Mexico (SE-Gulf) increased by nearly 40%, primarily increasing after the mid-1900s. Because fall is the climatological dry season in the SE-Gulf and precipitation in other seasons changed insignificantly, the seasonal precipitation cycle diminished substantially. The increase in SE-Gulf fall precipitation was caused by increased southerly moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico, which was almost entirely driven by stronger winds associated with enhanced anticyclonic circulation west of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) and not by increases in specific humidity. Atmospheric models forced by observed SSTs and fully coupled models forced by historical anthropogenic forcing do not robustly simulate twentieth-century fall wetting in the SE-Gulf. SST-forced atmospheric models do simulate an intensified anticyclonic low-level circulation around the NASH, but the modeled intensification occurred farther west than observed. CMIP5 analyses suggest an increased likelihood of positive SE-Gulf fall precipitation trends given historical and future GHG forcing. Nevertheless, individual model simulations (both SST forced and fully coupled) only very rarely produce the observed magnitude of the SE-Gulf fall precipitation trend. Further research into model representation of the western ridge of the fall NASH is needed, which will help us to better predict whether twentieth-century increases in SE-Gulf fall precipitation will persist into the future.


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