The Effect of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on International Trade: The Role of Financial Frictions

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominique Brabant
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Frictions ◽  
Exchange Rate Uncertainty

scholarly journals International Trade in Goods and Services: Aspects of Monetary and Financial Relations

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 40-49
Author(s):  
E.V. Potekhina ◽  
◽  
A.D. Efremova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
World Economy ◽  
International Division ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
The World ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
National Economies

the article examines such topical problems of the world economy as the peculiarities of interaction between the subjects of the world economy, international trade, international monetary and financial relations, the role of the exchange rate for national economies. The issues of the national economy of the Russian Federation and the degree of the country’s participation in the international division of labor and its openness are considered. In this paper, using the example of Russia, the export of goods and services is analyzed, its relationship with a number of factors (exchange rate and oil price), where the main tools are methods of statistical and econometric analysis.

Exchange rate risk and international trade: The role of third country effect

2018 ◽  
Vol 167 ◽  
pp. 152-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cengiz Tunc ◽  
M. Nihat Solakoglu ◽  
Senol Babuscu ◽  
Adalet Hazar
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Risk ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
Country Effect

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Workers’ Remittances: Empirical Bayesian Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 90-109
Author(s):  
Muhammad Jalib Sikandar ◽  
Hafiz Muhammad Yasin ◽  
Malik Muhammad
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Host Countries ◽  
Empirical Bayesian ◽  
Exchange Rate Uncertainty ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Country Characteristics ◽  
Empirical Bayesian Approach

Exchange rate is one of the important determinates of worker’s remittances to a country. Level of exchange rate as well as any fluctuation in it influences the volume of workers’ remittances. The present study uses data of workers’ remittances from ten major countries to Pakistan for the period 1973 to 2012. Uncertainty of exchange rate is estimated through GARCH model. We use Empirical Bayesian approach to compute posterior information (estimates, for which, the GMM estimates are used as prior in order to avoid biasness and inconsistency due to the presence of endogeniety in our model. The Empirical Bayesian estimates are found to be more efficient in terms of significance and correct signs of modeled variables. The findings suggest a significant role of home and host country characteristics in most of the cases. The findings also reveal a negative impact of exchange rate uncertainty on the inflow of remittances. The political instability reveals an insignificant impact on remittances. The study recommends different policy options for different host countries. Apart from the Middle East, the policy for other regions (like USA, Canada, and Germany etc.) must be considered separately to encourage inflow of remittances. Appropriate stabilization measures have to be taken on priority basis to curtail volatility of exchange rates and to ascertain regular inflow of remittances. 

scholarly journals Does Export Led Growth Hypothesis Hold Under World Crisis Recovery Regime in Malaysia?

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Asmawi Hashim ◽  
Norimah Rambeli ◽  
Norasibah Abdul Jalil ◽  
Normala Zulkifli ◽  
Emilda Hashim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Data Series ◽  
World Crisis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

This paper examines empirically the nature of the impact of the exchange rate on import, export and economic growth in Malaysia from 2009 until 2018. The objective of this study is to investigate the long-term and short-term relationship between endogenous and exogenous variables and also to identify the effects of exchange rates on dependent variables including imports, exports and the Gross Domestic Product (DGP) that represent the productivity of the country. This study further focuses on investigating the impact or the role of export in drive the county economic growth. In achieving these objectives, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) testing procedure is used to test the presence of unit root. In order to investigate the incidence of long run relationship between the data series, the Johansen Juselius Cointegration Vector is utilized. The Granger Causality in Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework is employed to differentiate between short run and long run causal effects in examining the led growth determinants. The result shows that there is causality between exchange rate, import, export and GDP. Moreover, this study shows that exchange rates responded positively to import and export and negatively to GDP. The result further support for export led growth hypothesis in this study. Thus, confirm for the role of export in motivating the economic growth productivity in after World Crisis regime in year 2008. However, Malaysia must not only relay on international trade to generate income for the country. This is because Malaysia is fortunate to have survived the negative effects of the global crisis; the international trade is exposed to exchange rate instability. If Malaysia wants to succeed in international trade, it may be able to focus on food and services trade. As alternative Malaysia may focuses on agriculture sector by improving the research and development and be a champion on food supply for the world.

scholarly journals The Effects of the Exchange Rate on Value-Added International Trade to Enhance Free Trade Sustainability in GVCs

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2740 ◽  
Author(s):  
Myoung Shik Choi ◽  
Bongsuk Sung ◽  
Woo-Yong Song
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Positive Effect

This study investigates the role of value-added bilateral trade focused on global value chains to achieve sustainable economic development. Our findings address trade policy implications that help to mitigate the global imbalances and exchange rate conflicts. These policies are expected to provide a competitive advantage that can be crucial to the sustainability of free trade. We apply traditional trade models to the value-added framework to examine the effects on value-added trade. Empirically, we investigate the bilateral value-added trade for recent years. Our major findings are that currency devaluation has a positive effect on value-added exports but has a negative effect on gross exports because of the effect on intermediate goods trading dominating the effect on international trade, i.e., the effect on foreign content of intermediate imports dominating the effect on the domestic content of exports. The same effect applies to imports. Also, we confirm that foreign income has a positive effect on exports and value-added exports, and domestic income has a positive effect on imports and value-added imports. However, their effects on trade balance are not consistent. Our major findings imply that the analysis of value-added trade can best contribute to the sustainability of global free trade by considering trade policies as a result of reflecting the easing of the global imbalance and the exchange rate war.

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