scholarly journals The Effects of the Exchange Rate on Value-Added International Trade to Enhance Free Trade Sustainability in GVCs

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2740 ◽  
Author(s):  
Myoung Shik Choi ◽  
Bongsuk Sung ◽  
Woo-Yong Song
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Positive Effect

This study investigates the role of value-added bilateral trade focused on global value chains to achieve sustainable economic development. Our findings address trade policy implications that help to mitigate the global imbalances and exchange rate conflicts. These policies are expected to provide a competitive advantage that can be crucial to the sustainability of free trade. We apply traditional trade models to the value-added framework to examine the effects on value-added trade. Empirically, we investigate the bilateral value-added trade for recent years. Our major findings are that currency devaluation has a positive effect on value-added exports but has a negative effect on gross exports because of the effect on intermediate goods trading dominating the effect on international trade, i.e., the effect on foreign content of intermediate imports dominating the effect on the domestic content of exports. The same effect applies to imports. Also, we confirm that foreign income has a positive effect on exports and value-added exports, and domestic income has a positive effect on imports and value-added imports. However, their effects on trade balance are not consistent. Our major findings imply that the analysis of value-added trade can best contribute to the sustainability of global free trade by considering trade policies as a result of reflecting the easing of the global imbalance and the exchange rate war.

scholarly journals A Predictive Effect of Exchange Rates on Value-Added Free Trade

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 9146
Author(s):  
Myoung Shik Choi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Positive Effect

The study investigates a predictive exchange rate effect on value-added trade flows on global value chains. We theoretically review the role of exchange rates on international trade based on insular, open, and global value chained economies. This paper empirically confirms a retro forecasting rule of the exchange rate on exports and trade balance using the value-added data for the period from 1995 to 2015. The first result is that real effective exchange rates have predictive elasticity information for the value-added trade flows. The second is that exchange rates have two practical effects on trade flows. The value-added exchange rate hurts the value-added trade balance due to increased intermediate trades, but the exchange rate has a positive effect on the gross trade balance. We would expect that value-added exports with trade balance can be improved in all sample countries when the value-added exchange rate is increasing. The main contribution is further evidence on distinguishing the currency depreciation on the value-added trade from the depreciation on the gross trade to achieve higher growth.

scholarly journals LA INSERCIÓN COMERCIAL DE CHINA EN LATINOAMÉRICA

2019 ◽  
Vol 78 (310) ◽  
pp. 137
Author(s):  
Jorge Alberto López Arévalo ◽  
Óscar Rodil Marzábal
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Positive Effect

<p>Este trabajo estudia los intercambios bilaterales de China con México, Chile, Costa Rica y Perú desde la óptica del comercio intraindustrial durante 1995-2017. En particular, se analizan las diferencias en el patrón de inserción intraindustrial en un contexto marcado por la existencia (Chile, Costa Rica y Perú) o no (México) de acuerdos de libre comercio con China. El estudio se completa con un análisis econométrico (efectos fijos) de los determinantes del comercio intraindustrial. Los resultados muestran una inserción de bajo perfil intraindustrial, con la excepción de algunas partidas específicas relativas a productos eléctricos y de la industria automotriz. Por otro lado, se confirma el efecto positivo del tamaño de la economía, de la inversión extranjera directa y de la diferenciación de producto, así como negativo de la diferencia en el nivel de ingreso; mientras que existe una indefinición en el papel de los acuerdos de libre comercio con China.<br /><br /></p><p>THE TRADE INTEGRATION OF CHINA IN LATIN AMERICA</p><p> </p><p><strong>ABSTRACT</strong><br />This paper studies China’s bilateral trade with Mexico, Chile, Costa Rica and Peru from the perspective of intra-industrial trade during 1995-2017. In particular, the differences in the pattern of intra-industrial insertion are analyzed in a context characterized by the existence (Chile, Costa Rica and Peru) or not (Mexico) of free trade agreements with China. An econometric analysis (fixed effects) of the determinants of intra-industrial trade completes the study. The results show a low intra-industrial profile, except for some specific items related to electrical products and the automotive industry. The positive effect of the size of the economy, foreign direct investment and product differentiation is also confirmed, as well as the negative effect of the difference in income level. However, there is an undefined role for free trade agreements with China.</p>

scholarly journals PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKRO EKONOMI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA TAHUN 2015-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 88-99
Author(s):  
Feby Kinanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables including the open unemployment rate, trade balance, inflation rate and the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar on Indonesian economic growth by using the ECM error correction model approach to see the long-term and short-term relationships that influence macro variables on economic growth. , in the long term the open unemployment rate variable, the trade balance, the inflation rate have a negative effect while the exchange rate has a positive effect, while in the short term the open unemployment rate, the inflation rate and the exchange rate have a negative effect while the trade balance has a positive effect.   Keywords: Economic Growth, Open Unemployment Rate, Trade Balance, Inflation, Exchange Rate

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH FAKTOR VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX (JII) PERIODE 2010 – 2013

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Herni Ali
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Multiple Regression Models ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

The aim of this study is examining the relationship between cointergration and causality levels of Exchange Rate, GDP, BI interest rates and inflation on Islamic Capital Markets. The data used in this study is a quantitative secondary data in the form of time series of the period January 2010 to December 2013. The test were conducted with the approach of multiple regression models with variable index research JII (Y), the exchange rate (X1), GDP (X2) , BI rate (X3) and inflation (X4) as for hypothesis testing performed using SPSS statistical software. From the results obtained by testing the hypothesis that: a positive effect on the exchange rate, positive effect on GDP, interest harga sewa rates BI negative effect and inflation positive effect on JII. Simultanious testing into four macroeconomic variables affect the JII.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v3i2.2061   

scholarly journals Inventories of Asian textile producers, US cotton exports, and the exchange rate

2014 ◽  
Vol 61 (4) ◽  
pp. 397-413
Author(s):  
Nazif Durmaz
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Relative Prices ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Inventory Dynamics ◽  
Market Changes

The present paper develops a model with US cotton exports depending on the stock-to-use ratio, trade weighted exchange rates, and the relative cotton prices. The role of inventories in cotton consumption is examined in five textile producing cotton importers, China, Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea, and Taiwan. Cotton inventory dynamics is diverse among Asian textile producers. Relative prices have negative effect in all markets as expected. Exchange rate elasticities show that effects should be examined for each separate market. Changes in rates of depreciation also have stronger effects than exchange rate. Results reveal that these countries are not all that homogenous.

scholarly journals The Effect of Value Add Tax on Economic Growth and Its Sources in Developing Countries

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 217
Author(s):  
Seyed Hossein Ghaffarian Kolahi ◽  
Zaleha Bt Mohd Noor
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Value Add ◽  
Positive Effect

Today the role of economic growth for its effect on social welfare is undeniable. For this reason, the factors influencing the economic growth are taken into account by policy makers and researchers. On the other hand, the VAT has been considered by most of the countries due to its numerous advantages and benefits. Hence, investigating how this type of tax affects the economic growth seems to be indispensable, particularly in developing countries. In this study, the effect of value added tax on economic growth was examined especially on the developing countries. In details, the effects of VAT on the economic growth of 19 developing countries for duration of 1995 to 2010 were investigated. For analysing the data, the GMM panel was employed because of the structure of the model. Afterwards, the effect of VAT through the channel of saving on the capital accumulation and productivity and ultimately the economic growth was examined. The results revealed that VAT has a negative effect on capital accumulation growth in the level; the positive effect of VAT on the level of economic growth seems to have been imposed through channels other than the increase of saving and its effect on capital accumulation.

scholarly journals Can e-commerce mitigate the negative impact of COVID-19 on international trade?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazunobu Hayakawa ◽  
Hiroshi Mukunoki ◽  
Shujiro Urata
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Multiple Measures ◽  
Gravity Equations ◽  
Negative Effect

AbstractThis study aims to empirically investigate the role of E-commerce (EC) on the trade impacts of COVID-19. To this end, we estimate gravity equations for bilateral trade among 34 reporting countries and their 145 partner countries during January–August in 2019 and 2020. Our major findings can be summarized as follows. A larger number of confirmed cases or deaths in both importing and exporting countries significantly decrease international trade. However, we found that EC development in importing countries contributes to mitigating this negative effect of COVID-19 on trade while that in exporting countries does not. These results are robust for our use of multiple measures of EC development.

scholarly journals Determinants of Firm Performance: Evidence from Romanian Listed Companies

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Lazăr
Keyword(s):  
Firm Performance ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Listed Companies ◽  
Sales Growth ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
Resource Based View ◽  
Firm Profitability ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

AbstractThe paper investigates firm-specific determinants of firm profitability for Romanian listed companies over the 2000-2011 period within the framework of resource based view of the firm. The results show that tangibles, leverage, size and labour intensity have negative effect on firm performance, while sales growth and value added have a positive effect. The results prove robust when introducing two-way fixed effects model and industry year effects model (in order to simultaneously account for specific industry characteristics and time effects).

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