Simultaneous Carbon Storage in Arable land and Anthropogenic Products (CSAAP): demonstrating a new concept towards well below 2°C

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
SHEN Zhou ◽  
Ligia Barna ◽  
Shivesh Kishore Karan ◽  
Lorie Hamelin
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Carbon Storage ◽  
Carbon Budget ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Marginal Lands ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Negative Emission ◽  
French Case ◽  
Global Mean

The removal of additional carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is indispensable for controlling global warming. This study proposed the concept of ‘biopump’, as plants capable of significantly transferring carbon into the soil. The Carbon Storage in Arable land and Anthropogenic Products (CSAAP) relates to the cultivation of ‘biopumps’ on marginal arable lands poor in soil organic carbon (SOC) and their conversion into long-lived anthropogenic products. Based on a list of twenty-seven biopumps assembled from a literature review, this study proposed a method for the regional prioritization of biopumps, considering among others their ability to increase SOC and adaptation. A list with eight woody and eight herbaceous biopumps was recommended for France. To illustrate the potential of the CSAAP strategy for products encompassing a variety of lifetimes, carbon flows, from biopump cultivation to biomaterial manufacturing and end-of-life, were tracked in time to calculate their influence on global mean temperature change. An illustration was performed on the basis of a French case study, where Miscanthus is grown on spatially identified marginal lands quantified as 11,187- 24,007 km2. Planting biopumps on these lands could increase by 0.23 to 0.49 Mt carbon stocked as SOC annually, which represents 0.19%- 0.41% of the annual French carbon budget during 2015-2018. If the carbon contained in the biomass is indefinitely kept in anthropogenic products, it could represent 13.07% of the same carbon budget. We concluded that biopumps could induce negative emission by 2100, with efficiency strongly depending upon carbon’ residence time in the anthroposphere.

scholarly journals Using Fisher information to track stability in multivariate systems

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (11) ◽  
pp. 160582 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nasir Ahmad ◽  
Sybil Derrible ◽  
Tarsha Eason ◽  
Heriberto Cabezas
Keyword(s):  
Complex System ◽  
Fisher Information ◽  
Regime Shift ◽  
Sustainability Science ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Simple Step ◽  
Multiple Variables ◽  
Multivariate Systems ◽  
Global Mean

With the current proliferation of data, the proficient use of statistical and mining techniques offer substantial benefits to capture useful information from any dataset. As numerous approaches make use of information theory concepts, here, we discuss how Fisher information (FI) can be applied to sustainability science problems and used in data mining applications by analysing patterns in data. FI was developed as a measure of information content in data, and it has been adapted to assess order in complex system behaviour. The main advantage of the approach is the ability to collapse multiple variables into an index that can be used to assess stability and track overall trends in a system, including its regimes and regime shifts. Here, we provide a brief overview of FI theory, followed by a simple step-by-step numerical example on how to compute FI. Furthermore, we introduce an open source Python library that can be freely downloaded from GitHub and we use it in a simple case study to evaluate the evolution of FI for the global-mean temperature from 1880 to 2015. Results indicate significant declines in FI starting in 1978, suggesting a possible regime shift.

On the scaling of climate impact indicators with global mean temperature increase: a case study of terrestrial ecosystems and water resources

2017 ◽  
Vol 141 (4) ◽  
pp. 775-782 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akemi Tanaka ◽  
Kiyoshi Takahashi ◽  
Hideo Shiogama ◽  
Naota Hanasaki ◽  
Yoshimitsu Masaki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Impact Indicators ◽  
Global Mean

Overshooting warming targets – temperature reversibility and implications for impacts, adaptation needs and near-term mitigation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner ◽  
Quentin Lejeune ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Thomas Gasser ◽  
Joeri Rogelj ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Removal Technologies ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Mean

<p>Limiting global mean temperature increase to politically agreed temperature limits such as the 1.5°C threshold in the Paris Agreement becomes increasingly challenging. This has given rise to a class of overshoot emissions pathways in the mitigation literature that limit warming to such thresholds only after allowing for a temporary overshoot. However, substantial biogeophysical uncertainties remain regarding the large-scale deployment of Carbon Dioxide Removal technologies required to potentially reverse global warming. Additionally, beyond global mean temperature very little is known about the benefits of declining temperatures on impacts and adaptation needs. Here we will provide an overview of the current state of understanding regarding the reversibility of global warming, as well as impacts and adaptation needs under overshoot pathways.</p><p>We highlight the characteristics of the overshoot scenarios from the literature, and especially those that are compatible with identified sustainability limits for Carbon Dioxide Removal deployment. We will compare those characteristics with uncertainties arising from the Earth System’s response which may complicate the efforts to achieve a decrease in Global Mean Temperature after peak warming is reached. This part will include latest results of the permafrost carbon feedback under stylized overshoot scenarios. Eventually, we will summarise the state-of-the-art knowledge and present new results regarding the impacts of overshoot scenarios for non-linear and time-lagged responses such as sea-level rise, permafrost and glaciers. This will allow for a preliminary assessment of the impact and adaptation benefits of early mitigation compatible with a no or low overshoot pathways.</p>

scholarly journals When will the world be committed to 1.5 and 2.0°C of global warming?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle Dvorak ◽  
Kyle Armour ◽  
Dargan Frierson ◽  
Cristian Proistosescu ◽  
Marcia Baker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Carbon Budget ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Abrupt Cessation ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Slow Decline ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract We investigate committed warming, i.e., the global mean temperature change that would follow complete cessation of anthropogenic emissions. The removal from the atmosphere of short-lived particulate aerosols, which have a cooling effect on the climate, leads to a peak in warming within a decade, followed by a slow decline over centuries to millennia to a relatively stable temperature determined by the residual CO2 forcing. This has important consequences: temporary warming well beyond present-day levels without any additional emissions. We use an emissions-based climate model (FaIR) to estimate temperature change after abrupt cessation of all anthropogenic emissions in 2021 and in every year thereafter until 2080, assuming that emissions prior to cessation proceed along priority Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We find that society may already be committed to peak warming of greater than 1.5°C with approximately 40% probability, with a small (2%) probability of peak warming greater than 2.0°C. The probability of being committed to 1.5°C increases to at least 50% by 2024. Taking into account short-lived climate forcers advances warming commitments by a half a decade, considerably reducing the remaining carbon budget. While an abrupt cessation of all anthropogenic emissions is not likely to occur, this idealized scenario provides a quantification of when we will be committed to exceeding key global warming levels while following realistic emissions scenarios.

scholarly journals SELFISH BUREAUCRATS AND POLICY HETEROGENEITY IN NORDHAUS’ DICE

2020 ◽  
pp. 2040006
Author(s):  
RICHARD S. J. TOL
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
European Union ◽  
Climate Policy ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Policy Models ◽  
Dice Model ◽  
Carbon Prices ◽  
Global Mean

Nordhaus’ seminal DICE model assesses first-best climate policy, a useful but unrealistic yardstick. I propose a measure of policy inefficacy if carbon prices are heterogeneous and use observed prices to recalibrate the DICE model. I introduce a Niskanen-inspired model of climate policy with selfish bureaucrats, and calibrate it to carbon dioxide emissions in the European Union and the policy models used by the IPCC. This model also implies a measure of policy inefficacy that I use to recalibrate DICE. The optimal global mean temperature is 1°C perhaps 2°C higher in the recalibrated than in the original DICE model.

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the zero emission commitment from CO2

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew H. MacDougall ◽  
Thomas L. Frölicher ◽  
Chirs D. Jones ◽  
Joeri Rogelj ◽  
H. Damon Matthews ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Budget ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Ocean Carbon ◽  
Earth System Models ◽  
Global Mean

<p>The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carbon budget. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established to gain a better understanding of the potential magnitude and sign of ZEC, in addition to the processes that underlie this metric. Eighteen Earth system models of both full and intermediate complexity participated in ZECMIP. All models conducted an experiment where atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration increases exponentially until 1000 PgC has been emitted. Thereafter emissions are set to zero and models are configured to allow free evolution of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration. The inter-model range of ZEC 50 years after emissions cease for the 1000 PgC experiment is -0.36 to 0.29 <sup>o</sup>C with a model ensemble mean of -0.06 <sup>o</sup>C, median of -0.05 <sup>o</sup>C and standard deviation of 0.19 <sup>o</sup>C. Models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours after emissions cease, with some models continuing to warm for decades to millennia and others cooling substantially. Analysis shows that both ocean carbon uptake and carbon uptake by the terrestrial biosphere are important for counteracting the warming effect from reduction in ocean heat uptake in the decades after emissions cease.</p><p> </p><p>Overall, the most likely value of ZEC on decadal time-scales is assessed to be close to zero, consistent with prior work. However substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of emission is a feature of a minority of the assessed models and thus cannot be ruled out.</p>

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