scholarly journals Choice between Rent and Mortgage: Evaluating the Net Present Value of Home Ownership

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 7-18
Author(s):  
O. I. Ivanov ◽  
M. M.S. Naimi
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Home Ownership ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Mortgage Lending ◽  
Mortgage Market ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Mortgage Interest

The article considers the problem of choosing between the ownership of residential real estate and its rental as a solution to the investment problem. The purpose of the article is to formalize this task using only financial variables (without explicitly including non-monetary preferences) and testing it on real Russian data on real estate and mortgage lending markets. The results can be used: a) at the house-hold level, which usually poorly take into account the financial side of the decision; b) at the level of macroeconomic policy to predict the dynamics of the mortgage market. We identified the following key model parameters: the expected rate of growth in housing and rental prices, mortgage interest, and the planned period of real estate ownership. The model demonstrates that for an average of Moscow or Russian housing with enough period of ownership, the purchase is generally more profitable in the cur-rent macroeconomic conditions. However, if the forecast for the dynamics of changes in housing prices worsens, when the nominal price increase is 5-8% lower than the discount rate, the answer may change in favor of renting. This is especially true in connection with the negative dynamics of real prices in the Russian housing market.  

scholarly journals Economic Mechanism and Cash Flows Modeling for Reverse Mortgage

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 106-120
Author(s):  
E. V. Kuz’mina ◽  
A. A. Yanin
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Senior Citizens ◽  
Market Equilibrium ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Mortgage Lending ◽  
Mortgage Market ◽  
Reverse Mortgage ◽  
Economic Mechanism ◽  
Expected Benefits ◽  
The Uk

The research is devoted to the economic mechanism of reverse mortgage —  a credit product aimed at improving the standard of living of senior citizens, owners of real estate. The idea of the reverse mortgage has been given, as well as the mechanisms of use of real estate owned by senior citizens in order to provide them with additional income. The examples of reverse mortgage in the uS, the uK, Spain and Australia have been given. The authors have also described the methods of reverse mortgage lending in Russia. Based on the analysis of international experience, the economic expediency of investing in this credit tool has been assessed. Considering consumer demand factor, it is possible to calculate the equilibrium rate and, therefore, to find the coordinates of the market equilibrium point. The authors have developed a mathematical model of reverse mortgage for the case of lifetime annuity payments. This model allows to calculate the expected benefits of borrowers and lenders. There have been done (and implemented) two notes that significantly distinguish reverse mortgage modeling from other loan products: 1) a lifetime reverse mortgage does not have a fixed expiration date; 2) when taking a loan of this type, borrowers consider not only consumption, but also accumulation of inheritance. The model allows to calculate the position of break-even points and market equilibrium (relative to the interest rate). This will help economically interested agents to assess the potential of the reverse mortgage market in Russia.

New Mortgage Lenders and the Housing Market*

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikodem Szumilo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Taking ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Mortgage Lending ◽  
Mortgage Market ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Banking Market ◽  
The Real Estate Market

Abstract This article examines the effect of a new lender’s entry into a local mortgage market on the supply of new loans, housing prices and repossessions in areas around its branches. I use the decision of the European Commission to force the UK’s largest retail bank to divest a part of its business as a shock to the entry of a new lender, and show that incumbent banks increase mortgage lending in areas where the new bank has its branches. Furthermore, house prices increase by around 5% in the real estate market impacted by the shock. Average transaction numbers and mortgage repossession rates also increase in places where the new bank enters. Overall, my results show that increased competition in the banking market can have adverse consequences for risk-taking and financial stability.

scholarly journals Prosperity or Real Estate Bubble? Exuberance Probability Index of Real Housing Prices in Chile

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Byron J. Idrovo-Aguirre ◽  
Francisco J. Lozano ◽  
Javier E. Contreras-Reyes
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Price ◽  
Mortgage Interest ◽  
Real Estate Bubble ◽  
Probability Index

In this paper, we approached the concept of real estate bubble, analyzing the risk its bursting could generate for the Chilean financial market. Specifically, we analyzed the relationship between real housing prices, the economic activity index, and mortgage interest rates denominated in inflation-linked units from 1994 to 2020. The analysis was based on a second order Markov switching model with the predetermined variables mentioned later, whose parameters were obtained through the expectation–maximization algorithm. Then, we built a probability index as early warning indicator for potential imbalances in the real estate price that could put financial market stability at risk. The indicator is important to evaluate economic policy calibrations in time. A main finding was that the real housing price had a non-linear relationship with economic activity and the mortgage interest rate. Therefore, the evolution of the real estate price has been consistent with fundamental macroeconomic variables, even under a high growth regime, with increases above 12% per year. About 92% of housing price variability derived from changing macrofinancial conditions, suggesting a low margin of speculative behavior.

scholarly journals MORTGAGE LENDING MARKET IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: CURRENT STATE, PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (53) ◽  
pp. 72-78
Author(s):  
S.A. Starykh  ◽  
◽  
S.A. Lavoshnikova  ◽  
 A.D. Chesnokova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Mortgage Lending ◽  
Mortgage Market ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Financial Bubble ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

Subject. The market of mortgage housing lending in the Russian Federation. Topic. The impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the mortgage lending market. Purpose. Analyze the housing mortgage lending market in the Russian Federation and identify the reasons for its explosive growth in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2020. Methodology. Methods of comparative analysis of the housing mortgage lending market in the Russian Federation. Results. The possibility of the formation of a financial bubble in the real estate market in Russia is studied, and the probable prospects for the development of the mortgage market are evaluated Application area. The mortgage lending market, including the behavior of borrowers (buyers in the housing market) and the activities of credit institutions. Conclusions. The article analyzes the housing mortgage lending market in the Russian Federation and identifies the reasons for its explosive growth in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2020. The article examines the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the mortgage lending market, including the behavior of borrowers (buyers in the housing market) and the activities of credit institutions. The possibility of the formation of a financial bubble in the real estate market in Russia is studied, and the probable prospects for the development of the mortgage market are evaluated. Keywords: mortgage lending, deferred demand, financial bubble, coronavirus pandemic, mortgage lending rate, key rate, average credit rating of the borrower, overdue debt, bankruptcy, reserves for possible losses.

scholarly journals Mortgage Loan: Assessment of the Current Situation and Impact on the Solution of Housing Problems

2020 ◽  
pp. 78-85
Author(s):  
Nelia Volkova ◽  
Kateryna Khamula
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Mortgage Lending ◽  
Mortgage Market ◽  
Mortgage Loan ◽  
Legal Provisions ◽  
Current State ◽  
Mortgage Credit ◽  
Practical Recommendations

The development of the mortgage market solves both the economic problems of activation and efficient use of financial resources, and social problems in attracting social groups to meet their needs through the mechanism of the financial market. This determines the pattern of development of ways to ensure and develop these processes in Ukraine, their theoretical justification, taking into account the peculiarities of the national economy and current global trends in the development of housing mortgage lending. The purpose of the work is to develop theoretical principles, guidelines and practical recommendations for improving the mortgage lending system in Ukraine. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were set: to summarize the theoretical provisions on the essence of mortgage lending; to analyze the current state of mortgage lending in Ukraine; identify conceptual approaches to enhancing the importance of mortgage credit in solving housing problems. The object of study is the process of assessing mortgage lending. The subject of the research is theoretical-methodical and practical aspects of mortgage lending in Ukraine and its impact on solving housing problems of the population. The paper summarizes the theoretical provisions on the essence of mortgage lending as an effective means of transforming capital tied to real estate; thanks to the analysis of the current state of mortgage lending in Ukraine it is proved that it is one of the most mobile segments of the financial market and today real estate lending has intensified and started to grow, but significant mortgage lending as before the crisis, unfortunately, has not yet been achieved; conceptual approaches to strengthening the importance of mortgage credit in solving housing problems, which are to improve the mortgage lending system in Ukraine. The information base of the study consisted of official materials of the National Bank of Ukraine, performance indicators of JSC "State Savings Bank of Ukraine", JSC CB "Globus", PJSC JSCB "Arcade", JSB "Ukrgasbank", materials of scientific conferences, Internet sources. The scientific novelty of this work is to substantiate the theoretical, legal provisions and provide practical recommendations for improving the mortgage lending system in Ukraine.

scholarly journals Credit Risk Management of Property Investments through Multi-Criteria Indicators

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 106
Author(s):  
Marco Locurcio ◽  
Francesco Tajani ◽  
Pierluigi Morano ◽  
Debora Anelli ◽  
Benedetto Manganelli
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Basel Iii ◽  
Participatory Process ◽  
Regulatory Capital ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Synthetic Index

The economic crisis of 2008 has highlighted the ineffectiveness of the banks in their disbursement of mortgages which caused the spread of Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) with underlying real estate. With the methods stated by the Basel III agreements, aimed at improving the capital requirements of banks and determining an adequate regulatory capital, the banks without the skills required have difficulties in applying the rigid weighting coefficients structures. The aim of the work is to identify a synthetic risk index through the participatory process, in order to support the restructuring debt operations to benefit smaller banks and small and medium-sized enterprises (SME), by analyzing the real estate credit risk. The proposed synthetic risk index aims at overcoming the complexity of Basel III methodologies through the implementation of three different multi-criteria techniques. In particular, the integration of objective financial variables with subjective expert judgments into a participatory process is not that common in the reference literature and brings its benefits for reaching more approved and shared results in the debt restructuring operations procedure. Moreover, the main findings derived by the application to a real case study have demonstrated how important it is for the credit manager to have an adequate synthetic index that could lead to the avoidance of risky scenarios where several modalities to repair the credit debt occur.

What drives housing prices, rent and new construction in China

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 662-686
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Staikos ◽  
Wenjun Xue
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Construction ◽  
Using Data ◽  
First Time

Purpose With this paper, the authors aim to investigate the drivers behind three of the most important aspects of the Chinese real estate market, housing prices, housing rent and new construction. At the same time, the authors perform a comprehensive empirical test of the popular 4-quadrant model by Wheaton and DiPasquale. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, the authors utilize panel cointegration estimation methods and data from 35 Chinese metropolitan areas. Findings The results indicate that the 4-quadrant model is well suited to explain the determinants of housing prices. However, the same is not true regarding housing rent and new construction suggesting a more complex theoretical framework may be required for a well-rounded explanation of real estate markets. Originality/value It is the first time that panel data are used to estimate rent and new construction for China. Also, it is the first time a comprehensive test of the Wheaton and DiPasquale 4-quadrant model is performed using data from China.

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