Radiative forcing since preindustrial times due to ozone change in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere

Abstract. Changes in atmospheric ozone have occurred since the preindustrial era as a result of increasing anthropogenic emissions. Within ACCENT, a European Network of Excellence, ozone changes between 1850 and 2000 are assessed for the troposphere and the lower stratosphere (up to 30 km) by a variety of seven chemistry-climate models and three chemical transport models. The modeled ozone changes are taken as input for detailed calculations of radiative forcing. When only changes in chemistry are considered (constant climate) the modeled global-mean tropospheric ozone column increase since preindustrial times ranges from 7.9 DU to 13.8 DU among the ten participating models, while the stratospheric column reduction lies between 14.1 DU and 47.9 DU in the models considering stratospheric chemistry. The resulting radiative forcing is strongly dependent on the location and altitude of the modeled ozone change and varies between 0.26 Wm−2 and 0.53 Wm−2 due to ozone change in the troposphere and −0.25 Wm−2 and +0.12 Wm−2 due to the stratospheric ozone change. Changes in ozone and other greenhouse gases since preindustrial times have altered climate. Six out of the ten participating models have performed an additional calculation taking into account both chemical and climate change. The isolated effect of climate change is an enhancement of the tropospheric ozone column increase in all models, ranging from 1% to 37%, while the stratospheric reduction becomes slightly less severe in most models. In the three climate-chemistry models with detailed tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry the inclusion of climate change increases the resulting radiative forcing due to tropospheric ozone change by up to 0.08 Wm−2, while the radiative forcing due to stratospheric ozone change is reduced by up to 0.14 Wm−2. Considering tropospheric and stratospheric change combined, the total ozone column change is negative while the resulting net radiative forcing is positive.

Download Full-text

Radiative forcing since preindustrial times due to ozone change in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-6-575-2006 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 6 (3) ◽

pp. 575-599 ◽

Cited By ~ 113

Author(s):

M. Gauss ◽

G. Myhre ◽

I. S. A. Isaksen ◽

V. Grewe ◽

G. Pitari ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tropospheric Ozone ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Climate Models ◽

Lower Stratosphere ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Transport Models ◽

Stratospheric Chemistry ◽

Ozone Column ◽

Global Mean

Abstract. Changes in atmospheric ozone have occurred since the preindustrial era as a result of increasing anthropogenic emissions. Within ACCENT, a European Network of Excellence, ozone changes between 1850 and 2000 are assessed for the troposphere and the lower stratosphere (up to 30 km) by a variety of seven chemistry-climate models and three chemical transport models. The modeled ozone changes are taken as input for detailed calculations of radiative forcing. When only changes in chemistry are considered (constant climate) the modeled global-mean tropospheric ozone column increase since preindustrial times ranges from 7.9 DU to 13.8 DU among the ten participating models, while the stratospheric column reduction lies between 14.1 DU and 28.6 DU in the models considering stratospheric chemistry. The resulting radiative forcing is strongly dependent on the location and altitude of the modeled ozone change and varies between 0.25 Wm−2 and 0.45 Wm−2 due to ozone change in the troposphere and −0.123 Wm−2 and +0.066 Wm−2 due to the stratospheric ozone change. Changes in ozone and other greenhouse gases since preindustrial times have altered climate. Six out of the ten participating models have performed an additional calculation taking into account both chemical and climate change. In most models the isolated effect of climate change is an enhancement of the tropospheric ozone column increase, while the stratospheric reduction becomes slightly less severe. In the three climate-chemistry models with detailed tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry the inclusion of climate change increases the resulting radiative forcing due to tropospheric ozone change by up to 0.10 Wm−2, while the radiative forcing due to stratospheric ozone change is reduced by up to 0.034 Wm−2. Considering tropospheric and stratospheric change combined, the total ozone column change is negative while the resulting net radiative forcing is positive.

Download Full-text

Simulations of preindustrial, present-day, and 2100 conditions in the NASA GISS composition and climate model G-PUCCINI

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-6-4427-2006 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 6 (12) ◽

pp. 4427-4459 ◽

Cited By ~ 123

Author(s):

D. T. Shindell ◽

G. Faluvegi ◽

N. Unger ◽

E. Aguilar ◽

G. A. Schmidt ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tropospheric Ozone ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Climate Model ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Atmospheric Composition ◽

Downward Flux ◽

Magnitude Distribution ◽

Goddard Institute ◽

Global Mean

Abstract. A model of atmospheric composition and climate has been developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) that includes composition seamlessly from the surface to the lower mesosphere. The model is able to capture many features of the observed magnitude, distribution, and seasonal cycle of trace species. The simulation is especially realistic in the troposphere. In the stratosphere, high latitude regions show substantial biases during period when transport governs the distribution as meridional mixing is too rapid in this model version. In other regions, including the extrapolar tropopause region that dominates radiative forcing (RF) by ozone, stratospheric gases are generally well-simulated. The model's stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) agrees well with values inferred from observations for both the global mean flux and the ratio of Northern (NH) to Southern Hemisphere (SH) downward fluxes. Simulations of preindustrial (PI) to present-day (PD) changes show tropospheric ozone burden increases of 11% while the stratospheric burden decreases by 18%. The resulting tropopause RF values are −0.06 W/m2 from stratospheric ozone and 0.40 W/m2 from tropospheric ozone. Global mean mass-weighted OH decreases by 16% from the PI to the PD. STE of ozone also decreased substantially during this time, by 14%. Comparison of the PD with a simulation using 1979 pre-ozone hole conditions for the stratosphere shows a much larger downward flux of ozone into the troposphere in 1979, resulting in a substantially greater tropospheric ozone burden than that seen in the PD run. This implies that reduced STE due to stratospheric ozone depletion may have offset as much as 2/3 of the tropospheric ozone burden increase from PI to PD. However, the model overestimates the downward flux of ozone at high Southern latitudes, so this estimate is likely an upper limit. In the future, the tropospheric ozone burden increases by 101% in 2100 for the A2 scenario including both emissions and climate changes. The primary reason is enhanced STE, which increases by 124% (168% in the SH extratropics, and 114% in the NH extratropics). Climate plays a minimal role in the SH increases, but contributes 38% in the NH. Chemistry and dry deposition both change so as to reduce tropospheric ozone, partially in compensation for the enhanced STE, but the increased ozone influx dominates the burden changes. The net RF due to projected ozone changes is 0.8 W/m2 for A2. The influence of climate change alone is −0.2 W/m2, making it a substantial contributor to the net RF. The tropospheric oxidation capacity increases seven percent in the full A2 simulation, and 36% due to A2 climate change alone.

Download Full-text

Characterising the seasonal and geographical variability in tropospheric ozone, stratospheric influence and recent changes

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-19-3589-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 19 (6) ◽

pp. 3589-3620 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Ryan S. Williams ◽

Michaela I. Hegglin ◽

Brian J. Kerridge ◽

Patrick Jöckel ◽

Barry G. Latter ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Atmospheric Chemistry ◽

Tropospheric Ozone ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Lower Stratosphere ◽

Climate Model ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Data Availability ◽

Ozone Production ◽

Upper Troposphere ◽

The World

Abstract. The stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone (O3) has been a subject of much debate in recent decades but is known to have an important influence. Recent improvements in diagnostic and modelling tools provide new evidence that the stratosphere has a much larger influence than previously thought. This study aims to characterise the seasonal and geographical distribution of tropospheric ozone, its variability, and its changes and provide quantification of the stratospheric influence on these measures. To this end, we evaluate hindcast specified-dynamics chemistry–climate model (CCM) simulations from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts – Hamburg (ECHAM)/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model and the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), as contributed to the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry – Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (IGAC-SPARC) (IGAC–SPARC) Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) activity, together with satellite observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and ozone-sonde profile measurements from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC) over a period of concurrent data availability (2005–2010). An overall positive, seasonally dependent bias in 1000–450 hPa (∼0–5.5 km) sub-column ozone is found for EMAC, ranging from 2 to 8 Dobson units (DU), whereas CMAM is found to be in closer agreement with the observations, although with substantial seasonal and regional variation in the sign and magnitude of the bias (∼±4 DU). Although the application of OMI averaging kernels (AKs) improves agreement with model estimates from both EMAC and CMAM as expected, comparisons with ozone-sondes indicate a positive ozone bias in the lower stratosphere in CMAM, together with a negative bias in the troposphere resulting from a likely underestimation of photochemical ozone production. This has ramifications for diagnosing the level of model–measurement agreement. Model variability is found to be more similar in magnitude to that implied from ozone-sondes in comparison with OMI, which has significantly larger variability. Noting the overall consistency of the CCMs, the influence of the model chemistry schemes and internal dynamics is discussed in relation to the inter-model differences found. In particular, it is inferred that CMAM simulates a faster and shallower Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) compared to both EMAC and observational estimates, which has implications for the distribution and magnitude of the downward flux of stratospheric ozone over the most recent climatological period (1980–2010). Nonetheless, it is shown that the stratospheric influence on tropospheric ozone is significant and is estimated to exceed 50 % in the wintertime extratropics, even in the lower troposphere. Finally, long-term changes in the CCM ozone tracers are calculated for different seasons. An overall statistically significant increase in tropospheric ozone is found across much of the world but particularly in the Northern Hemisphere and in the middle to upper troposphere, where the increase is on the order of 4–6 ppbv (5 %–10 %) between 1980–1989 and 2001–2010. Our model study implies that attribution from stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) to such ozone changes ranges from 25 % to 30 % at the surface to as much as 50 %–80 % in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS) across some regions of the world, including western Eurasia, eastern North America, the South Pacific and the southern Indian Ocean. These findings highlight the importance of a well-resolved stratosphere in simulations of tropospheric ozone and its implications for the radiative forcing, air quality and oxidation capacity of the troposphere.

Download Full-text

Radiative forcing of climate change from the Copernicus reanalysis of atmospheric composition

Earth System Science Data ◽

10.5194/essd-12-1649-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 1649-1677 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Nicolas Bellouin ◽

Will Davies ◽

Keith P. Shine ◽

Johannes Quaas ◽

Johannes Mülmenstädt ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Tropospheric Ozone ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Atmospheric Composition ◽

Global Average ◽

Aerosol Cloud ◽

Aerosol Cloud Interactions ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Radiative forcing provides an important basis for understanding and predicting global climate changes, but its quantification has historically been done independently for different forcing agents, has involved observations to varying degrees, and studies have not always included a detailed analysis of uncertainties. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service reanalysis is an optimal combination of modelling and observations of atmospheric composition. It provides a unique opportunity to rely on observations to quantify the monthly and spatially resolved global distributions of radiative forcing consistently for six of the largest forcing agents: carbon dioxide, methane, tropospheric ozone, stratospheric ozone, aerosol–radiation interactions, and aerosol–cloud interactions. These radiative-forcing estimates account for adjustments in stratospheric temperatures but do not account for rapid adjustments in the troposphere. On a global average and over the period 2003–2017, stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing of carbon dioxide has averaged +1.89 W m−2 (5 %–95 % confidence interval: 1.50 to 2.29 W m−2) relative to 1750 and increased at a rate of 18 % per decade. The corresponding values for methane are +0.46 (0.36 to 0.56) W m−2 and 4 % per decade but with a clear acceleration since 2007. Ozone radiative-forcing averages +0.32 (0 to 0.64) W m−2, almost entirely contributed by tropospheric ozone since stratospheric ozone radiative forcing is only +0.003 W m−2. Aerosol radiative-forcing averages −1.25 (−1.98 to −0.52) W m−2, with aerosol–radiation interactions contributing −0.56 W m−2 and aerosol–cloud interactions contributing −0.69 W m−2 to the global average. Both have been relatively stable since 2003. Taking the six forcing agents together, there is no indication of a sustained slowdown or acceleration in the rate of increase in anthropogenic radiative forcing over the period. These ongoing radiative-forcing estimates will monitor the impact on the Earth's energy budget of the dramatic emission reductions towards net-zero that are needed to limit surface temperature warming to the Paris Agreement temperature targets. Indeed, such impacts should be clearly manifested in radiative forcing before being clear in the temperature record. In addition, this radiative-forcing dataset can provide the input distributions needed by researchers involved in monitoring of climate change, detection and attribution, interannual to decadal prediction, and integrated assessment modelling. The data generated by this work are available at https://doi.org/10.24380/ads.1hj3y896 (Bellouin et al., 2020b).

Download Full-text

Characterising the Seasonal and Geographical Variability of Tropospheric Ozone, Stratospheric Influence and Recent Changes

10.5194/acp-2018-1026 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Ryan S. Williams ◽

Michaela I. Hegglin ◽

Brian J. Kerridge ◽

Patrick Jöckel ◽

Barry G. Latter ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Tropospheric Ozone ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Lower Stratosphere ◽

Climate Model ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Lower Troposphere ◽

Data Availability ◽

Ozone Production ◽

Upper Troposphere ◽

The World

Abstract. The stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone (O3) has been a subject of much debate in recent decades, but is known to have an important influence. Recent improvements in diagnostic and modelling tools provide new evidence that the stratosphere has a much larger influence than previously thought. This study aims to characterise the seasonal and geographical distribution of tropospheric ozone, its variability and changes, and provide quantification of the stratospheric influence on these measures. To this end, we evaluate hindcast specified dynamics chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations from the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model and the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), as contributed to the IGAC/SPARC Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) activity, together with satellite observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and ozonesonde profile measurements from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC) over a period of concurrent data availability (2005–2010). An overall positive, seasonally dependent bias in 1000–450 hPa (~ 0–5.5 km) subcolumn ozone is found for EMAC, ranging from 2–8 Dobson Units (DU), whereas CMAM is found to be in closer agreement with the observations, although with substantial seasonal and regional variation in the sign and magnitude of the bias (~ −4 to +4 DU). Although the application of OMI averaging kernels (AKs) improves agreement with model estimates from both EMAC and CMAM as expected, comparisons with ozonesondes indicate a positive ozone bias in the lower stratosphere in CMAM, together with an underestimation of photochemical ozone production (negative bias) in the troposphere. Model variability is found to be more similar in magnitude to that implied from ozonesondes, in comparison with OMI which has significantly larger variability. Noting the overall consistency of the CCMs, the influence of the model chemistry schemes and internal dynamics is discussed in relation to the inter-model differences found. In particular, it is shown that CMAM simulates a faster and shallower Brewer-Dobson Circulation (BDC) relative to both EMAC and observational estimates, which has implications for the distribution and magnitude of the downward flux of stratospheric ozone, over the most recent climatological period (1980–2010). Nonetheless, it is shown that the stratospheric influence on tropospheric ozone is larger than previously thought and is estimated to exceed 50 % in the wintertime extratropics, even in the lower troposphere. Finally, long term changes in the CCM ozone tracers are calculated for different seasons between 1980–89 and 2001–10. An overall statistically significant increase in tropospheric ozone is found across much of the world, but particularly in the Northern Hemisphere and in the middle to upper troposphere, where the increase is on the order of 4–6 ppbv (5–10 %). Our model study implies that attribution from stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) to such ozone changes ranges from 25–30 % at the surface to as much as 50–80 % in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS) across many regions of the world. These findings highlight the importance of a well-resolved stratosphere in simulations of tropospheric ozone and its implications for the radiative forcing, air quality and oxidation capacity of the troposphere.

Download Full-text

Halogen chemistry reduces tropospheric O<sub>3</sub> radiative forcing

10.5194/acp-2016-688 ◽

2016 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

T. Sherwen ◽

M. J. Evans ◽

L. J. Carpenter ◽

J. A. Schmidt ◽

L. J. Mickely

Keyword(s):

Tropospheric Ozone ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Observational Evidence ◽

Anthropogenic Emissions ◽

Transport Models ◽

Model Calculations ◽

Halogen Chemistry ◽

Observational Record ◽

Surface O3

Abstract. Tropospheric ozone (O3) is a global warming gas, however the lack of a firm observational record since the preindustrial period means that estimates of its radiative forcing (RFTO3) rely on model calculations. Recent observational evidence shows that halogens are pervasive in the troposphere and need to be represented in chemistry-transport models for an accurate simulation of present-day O3. Using the GEOS-Chem model we show that tropospheric halogen chemistry is more active in the present-day than in the pre-industrial. This is due to increased oceanic iodine emissions driven by increased surface O3, higher anthropogenic emissions of bromo-carbons and an increased flux of bromine from the stratosphere. We calculate pre-industrial to present-day increases in the tropospheric O3 burden of 113 Tg without halogens but only 95 Tg with, leading to a reduction in RFTO3 from 0.432 to 0.366 W m−2. We attribute ~ 40 % of this reduction to the ocean-atmosphere iodine feedback, ~ 30 % to increased anthropogenic halogens in the troposphere and ~ 30 % to increased bromine flux from the stratosphere. This reduction of RFTO3 (0.066 W m−2) is greater than that from stratospheric ozone (~ 0.05 W m−2). Estimates of RFTO3 that fail to consider halogen chemistry are likely overestimates (~ 20 %).

Download Full-text

Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-12-21615-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 12 (8) ◽

pp. 21615-21677 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

P. J. Young ◽

A. T. Archibald ◽

K. W. Bowman ◽

J.-F. Lamarque ◽

V. Naik ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Atmospheric Chemistry ◽

Tropospheric Ozone ◽

Climate Model ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Model Intercomparison ◽

Intercomparison Project ◽

High Bias ◽

Ozone Column ◽

Global Mean

Abstract. Present day tropospheric ozone and its changes between 1850 and 2100 are considered, analysing 15 global models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The multi-model mean compares well against present day observations. The seasonal cycle correlates well, except for some locations in the tropical upper troposphere. Most (75%) of the models are encompassed with a range of global mean tropospheric ozone column estimates from satellite data, although there is a suggestion of a high bias in the Northern Hemisphere and a low bias in the Southern Hemisphere. Compared to the present day multi-model mean tropospheric ozone burden of 337 Tg, the multi-model mean burden for 1850 time slice is ~ 30% lower. Future changes were modelled using emissions and climate projections from four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Compared to 2000, the relative changes for the tropospheric ozone burden in 2030 (2100) for the different RCPs are: −5% (−22%) for RCP2.6, 3% (−8%) for RCP4.5, 0% (−9%) for RCP6.0, and 5% (15%) for RCP8.5. Model agreement on the magnitude of the change is greatest for larger changes. Reductions in precursor emissions are common across the RCPs and drive ozone decreases in all but RCP8.5, where doubled methane and a larger stratospheric influx increase ozone. Models with high ozone abundances for the present day also have high ozone levels for the other time slices, but there are no models consistently predicting large or small changes. Spatial patterns of ozone changes are well correlated across most models, but are notably different for models without time evolving stratospheric ozone concentrations. A unified approach to ozone budget specifications is recommended to help future studies attribute ozone changes and inter-model differences more clearly.

Download Full-text

Simulations of preindustrial, present-day, and 2100 conditions in the NASA GISS composition and climate model G-PUCCINI

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-6-4795-2006 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 6 (3) ◽

pp. 4795-4878 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

D. T. Shindell ◽

G. Faluvegi ◽

N. Unger ◽

E. Aguilar ◽

G. A. Schmidt ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Tropospheric Ozone ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Climate Model ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Atmospheric Composition ◽

Downward Flux ◽

Magnitude Distribution ◽

Rf Values ◽

Goddard Institute ◽

Global Mean

Abstract. A model of atmospheric composition and climate has been developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) that includes composition seamlessly from the surface to the lower mesosphere. The model is able to capture many features of the observed magnitude, distribution, and seasonal cycle of trace species. The simulation is especially realistic in the troposphere. In the stratosphere, high latitude regions show substantial biases during period when transport governs the distribution as meridional mixing is too rapid in this model version. In other regions, including the extrapolar tropopause region that dominates radiative forcing (RF) by ozone, stratospheric gases are generally well-simulated. The model's stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) agrees well with values inferred from observations for both the global mean flux and the ratio of Northern to Southern Hemisphere downward fluxes. Simulations of preindustrial (PI) to present-day (PD) changes show tropospheric ozone burden increases of 11% while the stratospheric burden decreases by 18%. The resulting tropopause RF values are −0.06 W/m2 from stratospheric ozone and 0.40 W/m2 from tropospheric ozone. Global mean mass-weighted OH decreases by 16% from the PI to the PD. STE of ozone also decreased substantially during this time, by 14%. Comparison of the PD with a simulation using 1979 pre-ozone hole conditions for the stratosphere shows a much larger downward flux of ozone into the troposphere in 1979, resulting in a substantially greater tropospheric ozone burden than that seen in the PD run. This implies that reduced STE due to Antarctic ozone depletion may have offset as much as 2/3 of the tropospheric ozone burden increase from PI to PD. However, the model overestimates the downward flux of ozone at high Southern latitudes, so this estimate is likely an upper limit. In the future, the tropospheric ozone burden increases sharply in 2100 for the A1B and A2 scenarios, by 41% and 101%, respectively. The primary reason is enhanced STE, which increases by 71% and 124% in the two scenarios. Chemistry and dry deposition both change so as to reduce ozone, partially in compensation for the enhanced STE. Thus even in the high-pollution A2 scenario, and certainly in A1B, the increased ozone influx dominates the burden changes. However, STE has the greatest influence on middle and high latitudes and towards the upper troposphere, so RF and surface air quality are dominated by emissions. Net RF values due to projected ozone changes depend strongly on the scenario, with 0.1 W/m2 for A1B and 0.8 W/m2 for A2. Changes in oxidation capacity are also scenario dependent, with values of plus and minus seven percent in the A2 and A1B scenarios, respectively.

Download Full-text

Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

Climate of the Past ◽

10.5194/cp-13-1037-2017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 13 (8) ◽

pp. 1037-1048 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Henrik Carlson ◽

Rodrigo Caballero

Keyword(s):

Surface Temperature ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Warm Season ◽

Cloud Albedo ◽

Cloud Properties ◽

Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations ◽

Global Mean

Abstract. Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2–thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has ∼  11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

Download Full-text

Chemical and climatic drivers of radiative forcing due to changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone over the 21<sup>st</sup> century

10.5194/acp-2017-741 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Antara Banerjee ◽

Amanda C. Maycock ◽

John A. Pyle

Keyword(s):

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Tropospheric Ozone ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Climate Model ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Radiative Forcings ◽

Climatic Drivers ◽

Ozone Precursor ◽

Ozone Depleting Substances ◽

Projected Changes

Abstract. The ozone radiative forcings (RFs) resulting from projected changes in climate, ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), non-methane ozone precursor emissions and methane between the years 2000 and 2100 are calculated using simulations from the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model. Projected measures to improve air-quality through reductions in tropospheric ozone precursor emissions present a co-benefit for climate, with a net global mean ozone RF of −0.09 Wm−2. This is opposed by a positive ozone RF of 0.07 Wm−2 due to future decreases in ODSs, which is mainly driven by an increase in tropospheric ozone through stratosphere-to-troposphere exchange. An increase in methane abundance by more than a factor of two (as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario) is found to drive an ozone RF of 0.19 Wm−2, which would greatly outweigh the climate benefits of tropospheric non-methane ozone precursor reductions. A third of the ozone RF due to the projected increase in methane results from increases in stratospheric ozone. The sign of the ozone RF due to future changes in climate (including the radiative effects of greenhouse gas concentrations, sea surface temperatures and sea ice changes) is shown to be dependent on the greenhouse gas emissions pathway, with a positive RF (0.06 Wm−2) for RCP4.5 and a negative RF (−0.07 Wm−2) for the RCP8.5 scenario. This dependence arises from differences in the contribution to RF from stratospheric ozone changes.

Download Full-text