Verification of the Storm surge Forecasting System for the Korean Coastal Area

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nary La ◽  
Byoung Woong An ◽  
KiRyong Kang ◽  
Sang Myeong Oh ◽  
YoonJae Kim
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Shuttle Radar Topography Mission ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Reference Pressure ◽  
Height Predictions

<p><span>In recent years, coastal disasters have been frequently caused by typhoons and storm surges accompanied by high waves due to global warming and the changing marine environment. In addition, the development of coastal areas in Korea has also led to suffering great damage to society every year. </span></p><p><span>To cope with this issue, we have developed a new storm-surge prediction system based on the NEMO model for improving the predictability both the tide and the surge. This new regional tide-surge prediction system (RTSM) is constructed with a two-dimensional barotropic sigma coordinates and has a 1/12 degrees horizontal resolution. To find optimal coefficients of this model, several sensitivity experiments were conducted and verified with tide gauge measurements from the KHOA (Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency). Finally, we selected a bathymetry from SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission), Charnock coefficient as a constant value of 0.275 and the reference pressure for the inverse barometric effect as the domain mean. As the result of comparing surge-height predictions with the currently operating model (OPER-RTSM), the new system (RTSM) showed roughly 30% higher in forecast accuracy than the previous OPER-RTSM.</span></p>

scholarly journals A flood episode in northern Italy: multi-model and single-model mesoscale meteorological ensembles for hydrological predictions

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 2107-2120 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Davolio ◽  
M. M. Miglietta ◽  
T. Diomede ◽  
C. Marsigli ◽  
A. Montani
Keyword(s):  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Northern Italy ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Single Model ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Meteorological Models

Abstract. Numerical weather prediction models can be coupled with hydrological models to generate streamflow forecasts. Several ensemble approaches have been recently developed in order to take into account the different sources of errors and provide probabilistic forecasts feeding a flood forecasting system. Within this framework, the present study aims at comparing two high-resolution limited-area meteorological ensembles, covering short and medium range, obtained via different methodologies, but implemented with similar number of members, horizontal resolution (about 7 km), and driving global ensemble prediction system. The former is a multi-model ensemble, based on three mesoscale models (BOLAM, COSMO, and WRF), while the latter, following a single-model approach, is the operational ensemble forecasting system developed within the COSMO consortium, COSMO-LEPS (limited-area ensemble prediction system). The meteorological models are coupled with a distributed rainfall-runoff model (TOPKAPI) to simulate the discharge of the Reno River (northern Italy), for a recent severe weather episode affecting northern Apennines. The evaluation of the ensemble systems is performed both from a meteorological perspective over northern Italy and in terms of discharge prediction over the Reno River basin during two periods of heavy precipitation between 29 November and 2 December 2008. For each period, ensemble performance has been compared at two different forecast ranges. It is found that, for the intercomparison undertaken in this specific study, both mesoscale model ensembles outperform the global ensemble for application at basin scale. Horizontal resolution is found to play a relevant role in modulating the precipitation distribution. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble provides a better indication concerning the occurrence, intensity and timing of the two observed discharge peaks, with respect to COSMO-LEPS. This seems to be ascribable to the different behaviour of the involved meteorological models. Finally, a different behaviour comes out at different forecast ranges. For short ranges, the impact of boundary conditions is weaker and the spread can be mainly attributed to the different characteristics of the models. At longer forecast ranges, the similar behaviour of the multi-model members forced by the same large-scale conditions indicates that the systems are governed mainly by the boundary conditions, although the different limited area models' characteristics may still have a non-negligible impact.

scholarly journals Dynamical Extended-Range Prediction of Early Monsoon Rainfall over India

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (4) ◽  
pp. 1480-1492 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frédéric Vitart ◽  
Franco Molteni
Keyword(s):  
Lead Time ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Variable Resolution ◽  
Sensitivity Experiments ◽  
Extended Range ◽  
Forecasting System

Abstract The 15-member ensembles of 46-day dynamical forecasts starting on each 15 May from 1991 to 2007 have been produced, using the ECMWF Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System monthly forecasting system (VarEPS-monthy). The dynamical model simulates a realistic interannual variability of Indian precipitation averaged over the month of June. It also displays some skill to predict Indian precipitation averaged over pentads up to a lead time of about 30 days. This skill exceeds the skill of the ECMWF seasonal forecasting System 3 starting on 1 June. Sensitivity experiments indicate that this is likely due to the higher horizontal resolution of VarEPS-monthly. Another series of sensitivity experiments suggests that the ocean–atmosphere coupling has an important impact on the skill of the monthly forecasting system to predict June rainfall over India.

scholarly journals Storm surges in the Western Black Sea. Operational forecasting

2000 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 45 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. MUNGOV ◽  
P. DANIEL
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Coastal Zone Management ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Operational Forecasting

The frequency of the storm surges in the Black Sea is lower than that in other regions of the World Ocean but they cause significant damages as the magnitude of the sea level set-up is up to 7-8 times greater than that of other sea level variations. New methods and systems for storm surge forecasting and studying their statistical characteristics are absolutely necessary for the purposes of the coastal zone management. The operational forecasting storm surge model of Meteo-France was adopted for the Black Sea in accordance with the bilateral agreement between Meteo-France and NINMH. The model was verified using tide-gauge observations for the strongest storms observed along the Bulgarian coast over the last 10 years.

scholarly journals Coastal ocean forecasting with an unstructured grid model in the southern Adriatic and northern Ionian seas

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Federico ◽  
Nadia Pinardi ◽  
Giovanni Coppini ◽  
Paolo Oddo ◽  
Rita Lecci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Unstructured Grid ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Coastal Ocean ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Surface Boundary ◽  
Open Sea ◽  
Forecasting System

Abstract. SANIFS (Southern Adriatic Northern Ionian coastal Forecasting System) is a coastal-ocean operational system based on the unstructured grid finite-element three-dimensional hydrodynamic SHYFEM model, providing short-term forecasts. The operational chain is based on a downscaling approach starting from the large-scale system for the entire Mediterranean Basin (MFS, Mediterranean Forecasting System), which provides initial and boundary condition fields to the nested system. The model is configured to provide hydrodynamics and active tracer forecasts both in open ocean and coastal waters of southeastern Italy using a variable horizontal resolution from the open sea (3–4 km) to coastal areas (50–500 m). Given that the coastal fields are driven by a combination of both local (also known as coastal) and deep-ocean forcings propagating along the shelf, the performance of SANIFS was verified both in forecast and simulation mode, first (i) on the large and shelf-coastal scales by comparing with a large-scale survey CTD (conductivity–temperature–depth) in the Gulf of Taranto and then (ii) on the coastal-harbour scale (Mar Grande of Taranto) by comparison with CTD, ADCP (acoustic doppler current profiler) and tide gauge data. Sensitivity tests were performed on initialization conditions (mainly focused on spin-up procedures) and on surface boundary conditions by assessing the reliability of two alternative datasets at different horizontal resolution (12.5 and 6.5 km). The SANIFS forecasts at a lead time of 1 day were compared with the MFS forecasts, highlighting that SANIFS is able to retain the large-scale dynamics of MFS. The large-scale dynamics of MFS are correctly propagated to the shelf-coastal scale, improving the forecast accuracy (+17 % for temperature and +6 % for salinity compared to MFS). Moreover, the added value of SANIFS was assessed on the coastal-harbour scale, which is not covered by the coarse resolution of MFS, where the fields forecasted by SANIFS reproduced the observations well (temperature RMSE equal to 0.11 °C). Furthermore, SANIFS simulations were compared with hourly time series of temperature, sea level and velocity measured on the coastal-harbour scale, showing a good agreement. Simulations in the Gulf of Taranto described a circulation mainly characterized by an anticyclonic gyre with the presence of cyclonic vortexes in shelf-coastal areas. A surface water inflow from the open sea to Mar Grande characterizes the coastal-harbour scale.

scholarly journals Development and prospects of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system over Europe: predictive skill, added value of regionalization, and ensemble size dependency

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 171-187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Reyers ◽  
Hendrik Feldmann ◽  
Sebastian Mieruch ◽  
Joaquim G. Pinto ◽  
Marianne Uhlig ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Southern Europe ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Decadal Prediction ◽  
Ensemble Size ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
General Potential

Abstract. The current state of development and the prospects of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system for Europe are analysed. The MiKlip regional system consists of two 10-member hindcast ensembles computed with the global coupled model MPI-ESM-LR downscaled for the European region with COSMO-CLM to a horizontal resolution of 0.22∘ (∼25 km). Prediction skills are computed for temperature, precipitation, and wind speed using E-OBS and an ERA-Interim-driven COSMO-CLM simulation as verification datasets. Focus is given to the eight European PRUDENCE regions and to lead years 1–5 after initialization. Evidence of the general potential for regional decadal predictability for all three variables is provided. For example, the initialized hindcasts outperform the uninitialized historical runs for some key regions in Europe, particularly in southern Europe. However, forecast skill is not detected in all cases, but it depends on the variable, the region, and the hindcast generation. A comparison of the downscaled hindcasts with the global MPI-ESM-LR runs reveals that the MiKlip prediction system may distinctly benefit from regionalization, in particular for parts of southern Europe and for Scandinavia. The forecast accuracy of the MiKlip ensemble is systematically enhanced when the ensemble size is increased stepwise, and 10 members is found to be suitable for decadal predictions. This result is valid for all variables and European regions in both the global and regional MiKlip ensemble. The present results are encouraging for the development of a regional decadal prediction system.

scholarly journals Development and prospects of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system over Europe: Predictive skill, added value of regionalization and ensemble size dependency

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Reyers ◽  
Hendrik Feldmann ◽  
Sebastian Mieruch ◽  
Joaquim G. Pinto ◽  
Marianne Uhlig ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Decadal Prediction ◽  
Ensemble Size ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Current State ◽  
General Potential

Abstract. The current state of development and prospects of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system for Europe are analysed. The Miklip regional system consists of two 10-member hindcast ensembles computed with the global coupled model MPI-ESM-LR downscaled for the European region with COSMO-CLM to a horizontal resolution of 0.22° (~ 25 km). Prediction skills are computed for temperature, precipitation, and wind speed using E-OBS and an ERA-Interim driven COSMO-CLM simulation as verification datasets. Focus is given to the eight European PRUDENCE regions and to lead 20 years 1–5 after initialization. Evidence of the general potential for regional decadal predictability for all three variables is provided. For example, the initialized hindcasts outperform the uninitialized historical runs for some key regions in Europe and for some variables both in terms of accuracy and reliability. However, forecast skill is not detected in all cases, but it depends on the variable, the region, and the hindcast generation. A comparison of the downscaled hindcasts with the global MPI-ESM-LR runs reveals that the MiKlip prediction system may distinctly benefit from regionalization, in particular for 25 parts of Southern Europe and for Scandinavia. The forecast accuracy and the reliability of the MiKlip ensemble is systematically enhanced when the ensemble size is stepwise increased, and a number of 10 members is found to be suitable for decadal predictions. This result is valid for all variables and European regions in both the global and regional MiKlip ensemble. The predictive skill improves distinctly, particularly for temperature, when retaining the long-term trend in the time series. The present results are encouraging towards the development of a regional decadal prediction system.

scholarly journals The influence of the new ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System resolution on wind power forecast accuracy and uncertainty estimation

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 143-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Alessandrini ◽  
S. Sperati ◽  
P. Pinson
Keyword(s):  
Wind Power ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Meteorological Model ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Medium Range Weather Forecast

Abstract. The importance of wind power forecasting (WPF) is nowadays commonly recognized because it represents a useful tool to reduce problems of grid integration and to facilitate energy trading. If on one side the prediction accuracy is fundamental to these scopes, on the other it has become also clear that a reliable estimation about their uncertainty is paramount. In fact prediction accuracy is unfortunately not constant and can depend on the location of a particular wind farm, on the forecast time and on the atmospheric situation. Previous studies indicated that the spread of power forecasts derived from the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) in use at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) could be used as indicator of a three-hourly, three days ahead, wind power forecast's accuracy. In this paper a new application of the EPS, whose horizontal resolution was increased on January 2010 from T399/T255 (60 km) to T639/T319 (32 km), shows an improvement in the results implying that the power spread has actually enough correlation with the error calculated on the deterministic forecast in order to be used as an accuracy predictor. The periods for this comparison are from January 2008 until October 2008 (T399/T255) and from January 2011 until October 2011 (T639/T319). Moreover we have focused our attention on the influence of the new EPS configuration on the performance of a deterministic WPF conducted with the ensemble mean: the results show that increasing the EPS resolution yields a single-valued WPF whose performance is comparable with that of the new ECMWF deterministic high-resolution meteorological model, whose spatial resolution increased from T799 (25 km) to T1279 (15 km).

scholarly journals Understanding Sea Level Processes During Western Mediterranean Storm Gloria

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Begoña Pérez-Gómez ◽  
Manuel García-León ◽  
Javier García-Valdecasas ◽  
Emanuela Clementi ◽  
César Mösso Aranda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Breaking Waves ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Measured Data ◽  
Confidence Bands ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
The Impact

In January 2020, the storm Gloria hit the Western Mediterranean Sea causing severe coastal damages, destruction of infrastructures, flooding and several casualties. This extreme event was characterized by strong Eastern winds, record-breaking waves heights and periods, and a storm surge that locally beat the record along Valencia’s coastline. This paper analyses the dynamic evolution of sea level during this storm. The study employs both the in situ data and the operational forecasts of the PORTUS early warning system. Tide gauge data are analyzed on the different temporal scales that contribute to total sea level: long-term and seasonal, tides and storm surges, and higher frequency oscillations. It was found that, due to the unusual long wave periods, infragravity waves were generated and dominate the high frequency energy band, contributing significantly to extreme sea level records. This is a relevant finding, since this kind of oscillations are usually associated with larger basins, where swell can develop and propagate. The impact of sea level rise is also analyzed and considered relevant. A multi-model ensemble storm surge forecasting system is employed to study the event. The system was able to correctly forecast the surge, and the measured data were always inside the confidence bands of the system. The differences of the results obtained by the available operational forecasting system integrated into the ensemble, including those from Copernicus Marine Service, are described. All the models provided useful forecasts during the event, but differences with measured data are described and connected with the known limitations in physics (for example, barotropic vs. baroclinic) and set-up of the models (model domain, lack of tides and different inverse barometer implementations at the open boundaries amongst others).

scholarly journals Assessment of Storm Surge History as Recorded by Driftwood in the Mackenzie Delta and Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands, Arctic Canada

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger F. MacLeod ◽  
Scott R. Dallimore
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Aerial Photographs ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Mackenzie Delta ◽  
Tide Gauge Records ◽  
History Of ◽  
Study Sites ◽  
A Site

The southern Beaufort coastline in Canada experiences significant storm surge events that are thought to play an important role in coastal erosion and influence permafrost dynamics. Unfortunately, many of these events have not been documented with tide gauge records. In this paper, we evaluate coastal driftwood accumulations as a proxy for estimating maximum storm surge heights and the history of these events. We use historical air photos and data derived from Unoccupied Aerial Vehicle (UAV) imagery to resurvey four coastal stranded driftwood study sites that were first appraised in 1985–86 and assess two new regional sites in the Mackenzie Delta. Maximum storm surge heights were found to be similar to observations carried out in the 1980s, however, we refine the elevations with more accuracy and reference these to a vertical datum appropriate for incorporating into sea level hazard assessments. Detailed mapping, historical air photo comparisons and the UAV acquired imagery at a site close to Tuktoyaktuk demonstrate that the highest storm surge at this site (1.98 m CGVD2013) occurred in association with a severe storm in 1970. This event shifted driftwood and floated material slightly upslope from an older event thought to occur in 1944 that reached 1.85 m (CGVD2013) elevation. The quality and accuracy of the high-resolution Digital Surface Model (DSM) and orthophoto derived from Structure from Motion (SfM) processing of the UAV photographs allowed mapping of four distinct stratigraphic units within the driftwood piles. Based on variations in anthropogenic debris composition, weathering characteristics and history of movement on aerial photographs, we conclude that no storm surge events at Tuktoyaktuk have exceeded ∼1.3 m (CGVD2013) since 1970. While there has been some speculation that ongoing climate change may lead to more frequent large magnitude storm surges along the Beaufort coast, our study and available tide gauge measurements, suggest that while moderate elevation storm surges may be more frequent in the past several decades, they have not approached the magnitude of the 1970 event.

scholarly journals Evaluation of a probabilistic hydrometeorological forecast system

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1031-1043 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Jaun ◽  
B. Ahrens
Keyword(s):  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Ensemble Systems

Abstract. Medium range hydrological forecasts in mesoscale catchments are only possible with the use of hydrological models driven by meteorological forecasts, which in particular contribute quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF). QPFs are accompanied by large uncertainties, especially for longer lead times, which are propagated within the hydrometeorological model system. To deal with this limitation of predictability, a probabilistic forecasting system is tested, which is based on a hydrological-meteorological ensemble prediction system. The meteorological component of the system is the operational limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS that downscales the global ECMWF ensemble to a horizontal resolution of 10 km, while the hydrological component is based on the semi-distributed hydrological model PREVAH with a spatial resolution of 500 m. Earlier studies have mostly addressed the potential benefits of hydrometeorological ensemble systems in short case studies. Here we present an analysis of hydrological ensemble hindcasts for two years (2005 and 2006). It is shown that the ensemble covers the uncertainty during different weather situations with appropriate spread. The ensemble also shows advantages over a corresponding deterministic forecast, even under consideration of an artificial spread.

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