Determining Extreme Still Water Levels for Design and Planning Purposes Incorporating Sea Level Rise: Sydney, Australia

This paper provides an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) of the hourly water level record at Fort Denison dating back to 1915 to understand the statistical likelihood of the combination of high predicted tides and the more dynamic influences that can drive ocean water levels higher at the coast. The analysis is based on the Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) method using a fitted Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) function to estimate extreme hourly heights above mean sea level. The analysis highlights the impact of the 1974 East Coast Low event and rarity of the associated measured water level above mean sea level at Sydney, with an estimated return period exceeding 1000 years. Extreme hourly predictions are integrated with future projections of sea level rise to provide estimates of relevant still water levels at 2050, 2070 and 2100 for a range of return periods (1 to 1000 years) for use in coastal zone management, design, and sea level rise adaptation planning along the NSW coastline. The analytical procedures described provide a step-by-step guide for practitioners on how to develop similar baseline information from any long tide gauge record and the associated limitations and key sensitivities that must be understood and appreciated in applying EVA.

Time difference between the 1854 CE Ansei–Tokai and Ansei–Nankai earthquakes estimated from distant tsunami waveforms on the west coast of North America

We estimated the time difference between the 1854 CE Ansei–Tokai and Ansei–Nankai earthquakes from tidal records of two tide gauge stations (San Francisco and San Diego) on the west coast of North America. The first signals of the Ansei–Tokai tsunami were apparent, whereas those of the Ansei–Nankai tsunami were obscured by the later waves of the Ansei–Tokai tsunami. Waveforms of the Ansei–Nankai tsunami simulated with nonlinear dispersive wave theory by assuming an origin time of 07:00 GMT on 24 December arrived earlier than in the observations. The normalized root mean square and the misfit between the simulated and observed waveforms of the Ansei–Nankai tsunami showed a time difference between them of approximately 0.4 h. This finding suggests that the actual origin time of the Ansei–Nankai tsunami was approximately 07:24 GMT on 24 December. A previous study estimated the origin time of the Ansei–Tokai tsunami to be about 00:30 GMT on 23 December. Thus, we concluded that the time difference between the 1854 CE Ansei–Tokai and Ansei–Nankai tsunamis was 30.9 h. Despite the significant difference in the time resolution between the seasonal timekeeping system used in Japan in 1854 and waveform digitization, our result is roughly in agreement with historical descriptions of the tsunamis, suggesting that such information can be effectively used to determine the origin times of historical earthquakes.

Validation of Recent Altimeter Missions at Non-Dedicated Tide Gauge Stations in the Southeastern North Sea

Consistent calibration and monitoring is a basic prerequisite for providing a reliable time series of global and regional sea-level variations from altimetry. The precisions of sea-level measurements and regional biases for six altimeter missions (Jason-1/2/3, Envisat, Saral, Sentinel-3A) are assessed in this study at 11 GNSS-controlled tide gauge stations in the German Bight (SE North Sea) for the period 2002 to 2019. The gauges are partly located at the open water, and partly at the coast close to mudflats. The altimetry is extracted at virtual stations with distances from 2 to 24 km from the gauges. The processing is optimized for the region and adjusted for the comparison with instantaneous tide gauge readings. An empirical correction is developed to account for mean height gradients and slight differences of the tidal dynamics between the gauge and altimetry, which improves the agreement between the two data sets by 15–75%. The precision of the altimeters depends on the location and mission and ranges from 1.8 to 3.7 cm if the precision of the gauges is 2 cm. The accuracy of the regional mission biases is strongly dependent on the mean sea surface heights near the stations. The most consistent biases are obtained based on the CLS2011 model with mission-dependent accuracies from 1.3 to 3.4 cm. Hence, the GNSS-controlled tide gauges operated operationally by the German Waterway and Shipping Administration (WSV) might complement the calibration and monitoring activities at dedicated CalVal stations.

Incorporating historical information to improve extreme sea level estimates

Extreme value analysis seeks to assign probabilities to events which deviate significantly from the mean and is thus widely employed in disciplines dealing with natural hazards. In terms of extreme sea levels (ESLs), these probabilities help to define coastal flood risk which guides the design of coastal protection measures. While tide gauge and other systematic records are typically used to estimate ESLs, combining systematic data with historical information has been shown to reduce uncertainties and better represent statistical outliers. This paper introduces a new method for the incorporation of historical information in extreme value analysis which outperforms other commonly used approaches. Monte-Carlo Simulations are used to evaluate a posterior distribution of historical and systematic ESLs based on the prior distribution of systematic data. This approach is applied at the German town of Travemünde, providing larger ESL estimates compared to those determined using systematic data only. We highlight a potential to underestimate ESLs at Travemünde when historical information is disregarded, due to a period of relatively low ESL activity for the duration of the systematic record.

Late-Holocene relative sea-level changes and palaeoenvironment of the Pre-Viking Age ship burials in Salme, Saaremaa Island, eastern Baltic Sea

Two unique Pre-Viking Age ship burials were found from Salme village, Saaremaa Island, eastern Baltic Sea, containing remains of seven men in the smaller and 34 men in the larger ship. According to the archaeological interpretations, these ships belonged to a viking crew possibly from the Stockholm-Mälaren region, eastern Sweden. Geoarchaeological research was conducted in the area to reconstruct Late-Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) changes and shoreline displacement to provide environmental context to these burials. In this paper we present a Late-Holocene shore displacement curve for the Saaremaa Island and GIS-based palaeogeographic reconstructions for the Salme area. The curve shows an almost linear RSL fall from 5.5 to 0.8 m a.s.l. between 1000 BC and 1300 AD with an average rate of 2 mm/year. A slowdown in regression may be attributed to accelerated sea-level rise after the Little Ice Age and during the industrial period, being consistent with the tide-gauge measurements from the 20th century. Palaeogeographic reconstructions indicate the existence of a strait in the Salme area during the burial of the ships. The eastern part of the strait with water depth up to 2.8 m was about 80–100 m wide. The relatively steep and wind-protected shores in that part of the strait were probably the best places in the area for landing the viking ships. According to sedimentological evidence and diatom data, the narrowing of Salme palaeostrait occurred between 1270 and 1300 AD. Salme I and II ships were buried at 650–770 AD into the sandy-gravelly coastal deposits which had accumulated there in the open coastal zone about 710–450 years earlier. Reconstructions show that the ships were located about 2–2.5 m above coeval sea level and more than 100 m from the coastline. Thus, both ships were probably moved from the shore to the higher ground for burial.

Analysis of Upwelling Events in the Southern South China Sea Using Multi-Mission Satellite Altimeter

Upwelling is a vital ocean behaviour, especially for the Fisheries Industry, where upwelling will help to detect fish ground at a particular ocean area. However, the study of upwelling is minimal and not well understood due to some reasons and constraints, such as limited observation. Upwelling lacks a comprehensive in-situ observation system where it relies on limited information collected from the ground-truthing execution such as ships, buoys, and current meter. This study aims to analyse the upwelling pattern in the southern region of the South China Sea by using a multi-mission satellite altimeter. In order to derive the physical oceanography that involves upwelling, such as sea surface height (SSH), Mean Dynamic Topography (MDT), and the Sea Level Anomaly (SLA), the Radar Altimeter Database System is used. Five Satellite Altimeter mission is used in this study, which is JASON-2, JASON-3, CYROSAT2, SARAL, SENTINAL3A from 2013 to 2017. Validation is made using a statistical method showing a good correlation between Altimetry data and Tidal Data at tide gauge, which is 0.84 to 0.97, respectively. Also, monthly altimetry derived Geostrophic Current was assessed by analysing the current pattern where it shows a similarity with a previous study where the current velocity is 0.5ms-1 to 2ms-1. From the result, eddies can be seen in the seasonal and monthly Absolute Geostrophic Ocean Current (AGOC) map, indicating the present presence of upwelling. In conclusion, this study will benefit other researchers in terms of both upwelling and eddy studies.

Atlantic coastal sea level variability and synoptic-scale meteorological forcing

Anomalous sea levels along the Mid- and South- Atlantic coasts of the United States are often linked to atmosphere- ocean dynamics, remote- and local- scale forcing and other factors linked to cyclone passage, winds, waves, and storm surge. Herein, we examine sea level variability along the U.S. Atlantic coast through satellite altimeter and coastal tide gauge data within the context of synoptic-scale weather pattern forcing. Altimetry, derived from sea level anomaly (SLA) data between 1993 and 2019 were compared with Self Organizing Map (SOM)-based atmospheric circulation and surface wind field categorizations to reveal spatiotemporal patterns and their inter-relationships with high water-level conditions at tide gauges. Regional elevated sea level patterns and variability were strongly associated with synergistic patterns of atmospheric circulation and wind. Recurring atmospheric patterns associated with high-tide flooding events and flood risk were identified, as were specific regional oceanographic variability patterns of SLA response. The incorporation of combined metrics of wind and circulation patterns further isolate atmospheric drivers of high tide flood events and may have particular significance for predicting future flood events over multiple spatial and temporal scales.

Validation of Recent Altimeter Missions at Non-dedicated Tide Gauge Stations in the Southeastern North Sea

Consistent calibration and monitoring is a basic prerequisite for providing reliable time series of global and regional sea level variations from altimetry. The precision of sea level measurements and regional biases for six altimeter missions (Jason-1/2/3, Envisat, Saral, Sentinel-3A) is assessed at eleven GNSS-controlled tide gauge stations in the German Bight (SE North Sea) for the period 2002 to 2019. The gauges are partly located at the open water, partly at the coast close to mudflats. The altimetry is extracted at virtual stations with distances from 2 to 24 km from the gauges. The processing is optimized for the region and adjusted for the comparison with instantaneous tide gauges readings. An empirical correction is developed to account for mean height gradients and slight differences of the tidal dynamics between gauge and altimetry which improves the agreement between the two data sets by 15-75%. The precision of the altimeters is depending on location and mission and is shown to be at least 1.8 to 3.7 cm based on an assumed precision of 2 cm for the gauges. The accuracy of the regional mission biases is strongly dependent on the mean sea surface heights near the stations. The most consistent biases are obtained based on the CLS2011 model with mission dependent accuracies from 1.3 to 3.4 cm. Hence, the GNSS-controlled tide gauges operated operationally by WSV might complement the calibration and monitoring activities at dedicated CalVal stations.

Impacts of Future Sea-Level Rise under Global Warming Assessed from Tide Gauge Records: A Case Study of the East Coast Economic Region of Peninsular Malaysia

The effects of global warming are putting the world’s coasts at risk. Coastal planners need relatively accurate projections of the rate of sea-level rise and its possible consequences, such as extreme sea-level changes, flooding, and coastal erosion. The east coast of Peninsular Malaysia is vulnerable to sea-level change. The purpose of this study is to present an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model to analyse sea-level change based on observed data of tide gauge, rainfall, sea level pressure, sea surface temperature, and wind. A Feed-forward Neural Network (FNN) approach was used on observed data from 1991 to 2012 to simulate and predict the sea level change until 2020 from five tide gauge stations in Kuala Terengganu along the East Coast of Malaysia. From 1991 to 2020, predictions estimate that sea level would increase at a pace of roughly 4.60 mm/year on average, with a rate of 2.05 ± 7.16 mm on the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. This study shows that Peninsular Malaysia’s East Coast is vulnerable to sea-level rise, particularly at Kula Terengganu, Terengganu state, with a rate of 1.38 ± 7.59 mm/year, and Tanjung Gelang, Pahang state, with a rate of 1.87 ± 7.33 mm/year. As a result, strategies and planning for long-term adaptation are needed to control potential consequences. Our research provides crucial information for decision-makers seeking to protect coastal cities from the risks of rising sea levels.