Physiographic controls on pre-event hydrological states and hydrological response to extreme precipitation in the Alzette River Basin, Luxembourg

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carol Tamez Melendez ◽  
Judith Meyer ◽  
Audrey Douinot ◽  
Günter Blöschl ◽  
Laurent Pfister
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Hydrological Response ◽  
Local Character ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Oceanic Climate ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>Flash flood events have caused massive damage on multiple occasions between 2016 and 2018 in several catchments in eastern Luxembourg. This region is very well known for being exposed to large-scale winter floods, commonly triggered by long-lasting advective precipitation events related to westerly atmospheric fluxes. However, flash floods - a truly exceptional phenomenon in this region - are have solely occurred in summer in response to intense convective precipitation events. Thus, because of the rare occurrence and local character of this type of events, the mechanisms eventually controlling a flash flood-type response of a catchment remains poorly understood.  </p><p>Here, we focus on four main objectives: i) the role that physiographic characteristics play on the spatial variability of pre-event hydrological states (as expressed via storage) across a set of 41 nested catchments located in the Sûre River basin (4,240 km<sup>2</sup>), Luxembourg, ii) the hydrological response to precipitation controlled by those pre-event hydrological states, iii) the responsivity (resistance) and elasticity (resilience) of the catchments to global change, and iv) the relation between water yields and the offsets from Budyko curve and its related energy limits.</p><p>The area of interest is not only characterised by a homogenous temperate oceanic climate but also by heterogeneous physiographical conditions and land use, which makes it ideal for this study. We used 8 years’ worth hydrological data (precipitation, discharge and potential evapotranspiration) to calculate the increments of the water balance and determine the maximum storage capacity and storage deficits. Second, we used the relationship between storage deficit and discharge to estimate total storage at a hypothetical nearly zero flow condition. Third, we compared the pre-hydrological states and event runoff ratios (Q/P) to the catchments’ physiographical conditions in order to link catchment’s sensitivity to storage metrics. We then assessed the responsivity and elasticity to climate and anthropogenic variations – as expressed through the PET/P and AET/P deviations from the Budyko curve and energy limits– for each individual catchment. Finally, we investigated the catchment’s area control on responsivity, elasticity, water yields and Budyko’s elements across our set of 41 nested catchments.</p>

Physiographic controls on pre-event hydrological states and hydrological response to extreme precipitation in the Alzette River Basin, Luxembourg

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carol Tamez-Melendez ◽  
Judith Meyer ◽  
Audrey Douinot ◽  
Günter Blöschl ◽  
Laurent Pfister
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Wide Range

<p>The hydrological regime of rivers in Luxembourg (Central Western Europe) is characterised by summer low flows and winter high flows. In winter, large-scale floods are typically triggered by long-lasting sequences of precipitation events, related to westerly atmospheric fluxes that carry wet and temperate air masses from the Atlantic Ocean. In recent years, several flash flood events have been observed in Luxembourg. While being a common feature of Mediterranean river basins, this type of flooding events is uncommon at higher latitudes. The design of the hydro-meteorological monitoring and forecasting systems operated in Luxembourg is not adapted to this type of extreme events and there is a pressing need for a better mechanistic understanding of flash flood triggering mechanisms.</p><p>Here, we explore two lines of research – focusing on (i) the spatio-temporal variability of flash flood generation across a set of 41 nested catchments covering a wide range of physiographic settings (with mixed land use, soil types and bedrock geology) and (ii) the responsivity (resistance) and elasticity (resilience) of these catchments to global change.</p><p>Our area of interest is the Sûre River basin (4,240 km<sup>2</sup>), characterised by a homogenous climate (temperate oceanic), as well as various bedrock (e.g. sandstone, marls, shale) and land use (e.g. forests, grassland, crops, urban areas) types. Based on 8 years’ worth of daily hydrological data (precipitation, discharge and potential evapotranspiration) we computed the increments of the water balance to determine the maximum storage capacity and pre-event wetness state (expressed as storage deficit). Based on the relationship between storage deficit and discharge we first estimated total storage at nearly zero flow conditions. Second, we compared event runoff ratios (Q/P) to pre-hydrological states (as expressed to storage deficit prior to a rainfall-runoff event) in order to assess each catchment’s sensitivity to antecedent wetness conditions. Third, we assessed the responsivity (resistance) and elasticity (resilience) to climate variations – as expressed through the PET/P and AET/P deviations from the Budyko curve – for each individual catchment. Finally, we investigated potential physiographic controls on catchment responsivity and elasticity across our set of 41 nested catchments.</p>

Synoptic and Meso-α Scale Aspects of Flash Flood Events1

1979 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 115-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. A. Maddox ◽  
C. F. Chappell ◽  
L. R. Hoxit
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
Thunderstorm Activity ◽  
Middle Level ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Precipitation Events

Meteorological conditions associated with more than 150 intense convective precipitation events have been examined. These heavy rainfalls caused flash floods and affected most geographic regions of the conterminous United States. Heavy rains associated with weather systems of tropical origin were not considered. Analyses of surface and standard level upper-air data were undertaken to identify and define important synoptic and mesoscale mechanisms that act to intensify and focus precipitation events over specific regions. These analyses indicated that three basic meteorological patterns were associated with flash flooding in the central and eastern United States. Heavy convective precipitation episodes that occurred in the West were considered as a separate category event. Climatological characteristics, composite analyses, and upper-air data are presented for these four classifications of events. The large variability of associated meteorological patterns and parameters (especially winds aloft) makes identification of necessary conditions for flash flood-producing rainfall quite difficult; however, a number of features were common to many of the events. An advancing middle-level, short-wave trough often helped to trigger and focus thunderstorm activity. The storm areas were often located very near the mid-tropospheric, large-scale ridge position and occurred within normally benign surface pressure patterns. Many of the intense rainfalls occurred during nighttime hours. These elusive characteristics further complicate a difficult forecast problem.

scholarly journals Convective response to large-scale forcing in the Tropical Western Pacific simulated by spCAM5 and CanAM4.3

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toni Mitovski ◽  
Jason N. S. Cole ◽  
Norman A. McFarlane ◽  
Knut von Salzen ◽  
Guang J. Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Tropical Western Pacific ◽  
Community Atmosphere Model ◽  
Hourly Output ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. Changes in the large-scale environment during convective precipitation events in the Tropical Western Pacific simulated by version 4.3 of the Canadian Atmospheric Model (CanAM4.3) is compared against those simulated by version 5.0 of the super parameterized Community Atmosphere Model (spCAM5). This is done by compositing sub-hourly output of convective rainfall, convective available potential energy (CAPE), CAPE generation due to large-scale forcing in the free troposphere (dCAPELSFT), and near surface vertical velocity (ω) over the time period May–July 1997. Compared to spCAM5, CanAM4.3 tends to produce more frequent light convective precipitation ( 2 mm h−1). In spCAM5 5 % of convective precipitation events lasted less than 1.5 h and 75 % lasted between 1.5 and 3.0 h while in CanAM4.3 80 % of the events lasted less than 1.5 h. Convective precipitation in spCAM5 is found to be a function of dCAPELSFT and the large-scale near surface ω with variations in ω slightly leading variations in convective precipitation. Convective precipitation in CanAM4.3 does not have the same dependency and instead is found to be a function of CAPE.

scholarly journals Copula-Based Abrupt Variations Detection in the Relationship of Seasonal Vegetation-Climate in the Jing River Basin, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 1628 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Zhao ◽  
Shengzhi Huang ◽  
Qiang Huang ◽  
Hao Wang ◽  
Guoyong Leng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Vegetation Coverage ◽  
The Relationship

Understanding the changing relationships between vegetation coverage and precipitation/temperature (P/T) and then exploring their potential drivers are highly necessary for ecosystem management under the backdrop of a changing environment. The Jing River Basin (JRB), a typical eco-environmentally vulnerable region of the Loess Plateau, was chosen to identify abrupt variations of the relationships between seasonal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and P/T through a copula-based method. By considering the climatic/large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and human activities, the potential causes of the non-stationarity of the relationship between NDVI and P/T were revealed. Results indicated that (1) the copula-based framework introduced in this study is more reasonable and reliable than the traditional double-mass curves method in detecting change points of vegetation and climate relationships; (2) generally, no significant change points were identified during 1982–2010 at the 95% confidence level, implying the overall stationary relationship still exists, while the relationships between spring NDVI and P/T, autumn NDVI and P have slightly changed; (3) teleconnection factors (including Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Niño 3.4, and sunspots) have a more significant influence on the relationship between seasonal NDVI and P/T than local climatic factors (including potential evapotranspiration and soil moisture); (4) negative human activities (expansion of farmland and urban areas) and positive human activities (“Grain For Green” program) were also potential factors affecting the relationship between NDVI and P/T. This study provides a new and reliable insight into detecting the non-stationarity of the relationship between NDVI and P/T, which will be beneficial for further revealing the connection between the atmosphere and ecosystems.

scholarly journals Convective response to large-scale forcing in the tropical western Pacific simulated by spCAM5 and CanAM4.3

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 2107-2117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toni Mitovski ◽  
Jason N. S. Cole ◽  
Norman A. McFarlane ◽  
Knut von Salzen ◽  
Guang J. Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Tropical Western Pacific ◽  
Community Atmosphere Model ◽  
Hourly Output ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. Changes in the large-scale environment during convective precipitation events in the tropical western Pacific simulated by version 4.3 of the Canadian Atmospheric Model (CanAM4.3) are compared against those simulated by version 5.0 of the super-parameterized Community Atmosphere Model (spCAM5). This is done by compositing sub-hourly output of convective rainfall, convective available potential energy (CAPE), CAPE generation due to large-scale forcing in the free troposphere (dCAPELSFT) and near-surface vertical velocity (ω) over the time period May–July 1997. Compared to spCAM5, CanAM4.3 tends to produce more frequent light convective precipitation (<0.2 mm h−1) and underestimates the frequency of extreme convective precipitation (>2 mm h−1). In spCAM5, 5 % of convective precipitation events lasted less than 1.5 h and 75 % lasted between 1.5 and 3.0 h, while in CanAM4.3 80 % of the events lasted less than 1.5 h. Convective precipitation in spCAM5 is found to be a function of dCAPELSFT and the large-scale near-surface ω with variations in ω slightly leading variations in convective precipitation. Convective precipitation in CanAM4.3 does not have the same dependency and instead is found to be a function of CAPE.

A Comparison of CMIP3 Simulations of Precipitation over North America with Observations: Daily Statistics and Circulation Features Accompanying Extreme Events

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. 3209-3230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony M. DeAngelis ◽  
Anthony J. Broccoli ◽  
Steven G. Decker
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Southern Mexico ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Climate model simulations of daily precipitation statistics from the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were evaluated against precipitation observations from North America over the period 1979–99. The evaluation revealed that the models underestimate the intensity of heavy and extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast, southeastern United States, and southern Mexico, and these biases are robust among the models. The models also overestimate the intensity of light precipitation events over much of North America, resulting in fairly realistic mean precipitation in many places. In contrast, heavy precipitation is simulated realistically over northern and eastern Canada, as is the seasonal cycle of heavy precipitation over a majority of North America. An evaluation of the simulated atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics associated with extreme precipitation events was also conducted using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The models were found to capture the large-scale physical mechanisms that generate extreme precipitation realistically, although they tend to overestimate the strength of the associated atmospheric circulation features. This suggests that climate model deficiencies such as insufficient spatial resolution, inadequate representation of convective precipitation, and overly smoothed topography may be more important for biases in simulated heavy precipitation than errors in the large-scale circulation during extreme events.

scholarly journals Impact of Atmospheric Circulation on Flooding Occurrence and Type in Luxembourg (Central Western Europe)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Judith Meyer ◽  
Audrey Douinot ◽  
Erwin Zehe ◽  
Carol Tamez-Meléndez ◽  
Olivier Francis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Intense Rainfall ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Winter Flood

&lt;p&gt;In the second half of the 20&lt;sup&gt;th&lt;/sup&gt; century, hydrological regimes in central Western Europe were largely characterised by large-scale winter floods. This type of event was predominantly triggered by westerly atmospheric fluxes, bringing moist and mild air masses from the Atlantic Ocean to the European continent. Since the late 1990&amp;#8217;s, major flooding events seem to have shifted in time and magnitude. Flash flood events, while being a well-known phenomenon in Mediterranean catchments, are increasingly also reported at higher latitudes. Unlike the large-scale winter flood events, flash floods are of very narrow spatial extension and triggered by rather short, but highly intense rainfall events.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Here, we focus on the specific case of rivers in Luxembourg that have experienced several flash flood events in recent years, while only small to moderate winter flood events have been reported since the late 1990&amp;#8217;s. National hydro-meteorological monitoring and flood forecasting systems have been designed for large-scale floods and are not suited for simulating local flash flood events. Therefore, there is a need to increase our understanding of the hydro-meteorological processes underlying flash flood occurrences in our area of interest.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;While increasing air temperature is known to allow a higher air moisture content that can lead to more intense rainfall events and possible flooding, we moreover hypothesize that the recent increase in flash flood occurrences in Luxembourg is reinforced by a change in atmospheric circulation patterns. To test this hypothesis, we analyse the prevailing atmospheric patterns on rainy days during summer and winter months over the period 1954 - 2019, with a particular focus on rainfall events that lead to moderate and extreme floods. In a next step, we intend to extend our findings for Luxembourg in a larger European context. This analysis should allow to better assess the current situation of hydrological extreme events in central Western Europe in order to take precaution measures and prepare for a diversifying hazard.&lt;/p&gt;

Hydroclimatic Aspects of the 2011 Assiniboine River Basin Flood

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 1250-1272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian Brimelow ◽  
Kit Szeto ◽  
Barrie Bonsal ◽  
John Hanesiak ◽  
Bohdan Kochtubajda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Spring Precipitation ◽  
Cumulative Impact ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Cold Temperatures ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract In the spring and early summer of 2011, the Assiniboine River basin in Canada experienced an extreme flood that was unprecedented in terms of duration and severity. The flood had significant socioeconomic impacts and caused over $1 billion (Canadian dollars) in damage. Contrary to what one might expect for such an extreme flood, individual precipitation events before and during the 2011 flood were not extreme; instead, it was the cumulative impact and timing of precipitation events going back to the summer of 2010 that played a key role in the 2011 flood. The summer and fall of 2010 were exceptionally wet, resulting in above-normal soil moisture levels at the time of freeze-up. This was followed by record high snow water equivalent values in March and April 2011. Cold temperatures in March delayed the spring melt, resulting in the above-average spring freshet occurring close to the onset of heavy rains in May and June. The large-scale atmospheric flow during May and June 2011 favored increased cyclone activity in the region, which produced an anomalously large number of heavy rainfall events over the basin. All of these factors combined generated extreme flooding. Japanese 55-year Reanalysis Project (JRA-55) data are used to quantify the relative importance of snowmelt and spring precipitation in contributing to the unprecedented flood and to demonstrate how the 2011 flood was unique compared to previous floods. This study can be used to validate and improve flood forecasting techniques over this important basin; the findings also raise important questions regarding floods in a changing climate over basins that experience pluvial and nival flooding.

scholarly journals LARGE SCALE VERTICAL ELECTRICAL SOUNDINGS SURVEY IN ANTHEMOUNTAS RIVER BASIN FOR EVALUATING HYDRAULIC COMMUNICATION BETWEEN SUB BASIN AQUIFERS

2017 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
pp. 1953 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Vargemezis ◽  
I. Fikos
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Underground Water ◽  
Water Bodies ◽  
Three Dimensional Model ◽  
Borehole Data ◽  
Significant Drop ◽  
Vertical Electrical Soundings ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Electrical Soundings

In Anthemountas river basin a number of studies have taken place mainly because of the significant drop of underground water level observed in the beginning of the last decade. Data from existing hydrowells show the existence of a complex aquifer with the two main underground water bodies situated east and west of the region of Vasilika and Galarinos villages respectively. A large scale geophysical survey took place consisting of Vertical Electrical Soundings (VES) and Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT). The main area of interest is in the central region of the basin between Vasilika and Galarinos villages where eighty five (85) VES (Schlumberger array), located on a regular grid revealed a three dimensional model for the sedimentary formations while mapping the bedrock down to a depth of more than 600m has been achieved. In the same area, ERT measurements and geological information derived from borehole data are used to obtain a more detailed geological model for the area of interest. From surface to bedrock depth, the hydraulic communication between these two water bodies is examined. Furthermore significant geological features are observed and discussed.

scholarly journals Super-Clausius–Clapeyron Scaling of Extreme Hourly Convective Precipitation and Its Relation to Large-Scale Atmospheric Conditions

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (15) ◽  
pp. 6037-6052 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Lenderink ◽  
R. Barbero ◽  
J. M. Loriaux ◽  
H. J. Fowler
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Hourly Precipitation ◽  
Temperature Range ◽  
Dewpoint Temperature ◽  
Precipitation Events

Present-day precipitation–temperature scaling relations indicate that hourly precipitation extremes may have a response to warming exceeding the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relation; for the Netherlands the dependency on surface dewpoint temperature follows 2 times the CC relation (2CC). The authors’ hypothesis—as supported by a simple physical argument presented here—is that this 2CC behavior arises from the physics of convective clouds. To further investigate this, the large-scale atmospheric conditions accompanying summertime afternoon precipitation events are analyzed using surface observations combined with a regional reanalysis. Events are precipitation measurements clustered in time and space. The hourly peak intensities of these events again reveal a 2CC scaling with the surface dewpoint temperature. The temperature excess of moist updrafts initialized at the surface and the maximum cloud depth are clear functions of surface dewpoint, confirming the key role of surface humidity on convective activity. Almost no differences in relative humidity and the dry temperature lapse rate were found across the dewpoint temperature range, supporting the theory that 2CC scaling is mainly due to the response of convection to increases in near-surface humidity, while other atmospheric conditions remain similar. Additionally, hourly precipitation extremes are on average accompanied by substantial large-scale upward motions and therefore large-scale moisture convergence, which appears to accelerate with surface dewpoint. Consequently, most hourly extremes occur in precipitation events with considerable spatial extent. Importantly, this event size appears to increase rapidly at the highest dewpoint temperature range, suggesting potentially strong impacts of climatic warming.

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