The Effect of Forced and Unforced Variability on Heat Waves, Temperature Extremes, and Associated Population Risk in a CO₂-Warmed World

This study investigates the impact of global warming on heat and humidity extremes by analyzing 6-hourly output from 28 members of the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble driven by forcing from a 1 %/year CO2 increase. We find that unforced variability drives large changes in regional exposure to extremes in different ensemble members, and these variations are mostly associated with ENSO variability. However, while the unforced variability of the climate can alter the occurrence of extremes regionally, variability within the ensemble decreases significantly as one looks at larger regions or at a global population perspective. This means that, for metrics of extreme heat and humidity analyzed here, forced variability of the climate is more important than the unforced variability at global scales. Lastly, we found that most heat wave metrics will increase significantly between 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, and that low GDP regions shows significant higher risks of facing extreme heat events compared to high GDP regions. Considering the limited economic adaptability of population to heat extremes, this reinforces the idea that the most severe impacts of climate change may fall mostly on those least capable to adapt.

Subseasonal Prediction of Wintertime Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclone Activity by SubX and S2S Models

The prediction of wintertime extratropical cyclone activity (ECA) on subseasonal time scales by models participating in the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) and the Seasonal to Subseasonal Prediction (S2S) is assessed. Consistent with a previous study that investigated the S2S models, the SubX models have skillful predictions of ECA over regions from central North Pacific across North America to western North Atlantic, as well as East Asia and northern and southern part of eastern North Atlantic at 3–4 weeks lead time. SubX provides daily mean data, while S2S provides instantaneous data at 0000 UTC each day. This leads to different variance of ECA. Different S2S and SubX models have different reforecast initialization times and reforecast time periods. These factors can all lead to differences in prediction skill. To fairly compare the prediction skill between different models, we develop a novel way to evaluate the prediction of individual model across the two ensembles by comparing every model to the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), as CFSv2 has 6-hourly output and forecasts initialized every day. Among the S2S and SubX models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model exhibits the best prediction skill, followed by CFSv2. Our results also suggest that while the prediction skill is sensitive to forecast lead time, including forecasts up to 4 days old into the ensemble may still be useful for weeks 3–4 predictions of ECA.

Research on economic benefits of “source, storage and load” in a multi-energy complementary combined cooling-heating-electricity system

In order to solve the randomness and volatility of new energy power generation, promote the local consumption of renewable energy, and maximize the economic efficiency of CCHP system, this paper combines the schedulable resources of energy production, energy storage and energy consumption into a “source storage” system, which can meet the demand of power supply, heating and cooling at the same time. The objective function is to minimize the daily operation cost of the cold heat electric hybrid energy system, and the power balance and equipment capacity of the system are constrained. Using the established mathematical model of the system framework, the particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to improve the CCHP programming model to obtain the adaptation curve and the hourly output of the optimal operation of the equipment with the maximum economic benefit. The operation and maintenance costs of the two modes are analyzed in depth. The results show that the optimization of “source storage and load” system not only improves the reliability of energy supply, but also reduces the cost of operation and maintenance and improves the economic benefits of the system.

Theoretical and applied aspects of labour efficiency as a social and economic category

Introduction. Improving labour efficiency is the key to successful operation of any organization. Social and economic development of the state is largely depends on the in-depth study of labour efficiency management. These issues should be solved at certain enterprises at macro- and meso-economic levels. Aim and tasks. The purpose of the article is to deepen theoretical and methodological principles and develop practical recommendations for improving labour efficiency. Results. The generalization of theoretical and methodological provisions of the category of labour efficiency is carried out. Methodical approaches to the evaluation and measurement of labour efficiency at enterprises have been considered. It is established that labour efficiency, as an economic category, takes into account many aspects that reveal it through certain characteristics, which are expressed in labour productivity, quality and labour performance. It was found that increasing the production of surplus products can increase productivity, but will reduce its efficiency. It is noted that labour efficiency is a dynamic indicator that reflects evaluation of changes in the sum of indicators of labour quality and productivity, life quality of all stakeholders involved in the working process and the use of its results. It is proposed to consider the category "labour efficiency" in terms of qualitative and quantitative criteria and substantiate the essence of labour efficiency, which reflects qualitative component in the form of products of specific consumer quality with value added and quantitative component in the form of manufactured products to the amount of labour spent on its production. The method of building a model for determining the coefficients of rating of the factors of enterprise development using the method of linearization of the model of labour efficiency is proposed. Conclusions. It is proposed to evaluate labour efficiency at the enterprise using a quantitative criterion which is the average hourly output of one employee, and a qualitative criterion which is the average hourly value added per employee. The increase in value added at the enterprise is achieved through the optimization of all production processes. The comparative complex analysis by means of the method of defining specific rating coefficients (SRC) of influence of development factors on labour efficiency at the machine-building enterprises is carried out. Proposals have been developed to evaluate optimal conditions for the development, stability and decline (bankruptcy) of machine-building enterprises.

Analysis of the influence of process complexity and employee competence on the effect of digital assistance in industrial assembly

The diversification of products increases the complexity of production, which intensifies the demands placed on employees. Digital assistance is expected to improve employee performance and flexibility. This paper examines the impact of digital assistance on labor productivity (hourly output) and experience of use in dependence on process complexity and employee competence. Within the framework of an empirical study in the process learning factory CiP of the TU Darmstadt, the effect was quantified using the example of a typical assembly process. This paper presents the concept and the results of the study. After the classification of an assembly task, these results can be used to support the selection decision for a digital assistance system according to cost–benefit aspects.

Convective Transition Statistics over Tropical Oceans for Climate Model Diagnostics: GCM Evaluation

To assess deep convective parameterizations in a variety of GCMs and examine the fast-time-scale convective transition, a set of statistics characterizing the pickup of precipitation as a function of column water vapor (CWV), PDFs and joint PDFs of CWV and precipitation, and the dependence of the moisture–precipitation relation on tropospheric temperature is evaluated using the hourly output of two versions of the GFDL Atmospheric Model, version 4 (AM4), NCAR CAM5 and superparameterized CAM (SPCAM). The 6-hourly output from the MJO Task Force (MJOTF)/GEWEX Atmospheric System Study (GASS) project is also analyzed. Contrasting statistics produced from individual models that primarily differ in representations of moist convection suggest that convective transition statistics can substantially distinguish differences in convective representation and its interaction with the large-scale flow, while models that differ only in spatial–temporal resolution, microphysics, or ocean–atmosphere coupling result in similar statistics. Most of the models simulate some version of the observed sharp increase in precipitation as CWV exceeds a critical value, as well as that convective onset occurs at higher CWV but at lower column RH as temperature increases. While some models quantitatively capture these observed features and associated probability distributions, considerable intermodel spread and departures from observations in various aspects of the precipitation–CWV relationship are noted. For instance, in many of the models, the transition from the low-CWV, nonprecipitating regime to the moist regime for CWV around and above critical is less abrupt than in observations. Additionally, some models overproduce drizzle at low CWV, and some require CWV higher than observed for strong precipitation. For many of the models, it is particularly challenging to simulate the probability distributions of CWV at high temperature.

Increasing labor productivity as the major line of agricultural industry development

The improvement of the agricultural sector efficiency, a shift to innovative development approaches to increase the competitiveness of domestic agriculture in modern conditions is possible only if labor productivity increases. This task is more relevant today than ever, since the main factor of production – labor (labor resources) has a steady downward trend. The study has shown that in the agricultural sector of the region there is an increase of labor productivity both by value and volume. The application of deterministic factor analysis has revealed that in the dynamics both factors (number of employees and cost of production) had a positive impact on increasing labor productivity, but the increase in production volumes in the industry had a more noticeable effect (the value of the factor varied from 57.7 to 69.7 %). However due regard must be paid to the fact that agricultural production is subject to fluctuations and the decrease in the number of workers in the industry is sustainable. The positive impact and the main factor in the growth of annual labor productivity is an increase in the average hourly output of workers due to an increase in the yield and technical re-equipment, and this should be noted as a strategically important direction for the development of the industry. The normalization of employment also acts as a factor in further increasing labor productivity.

Convective response to large-scale forcing in the tropical western Pacific simulated by spCAM5 and CanAM4.3

Changes in the large-scale environment during convective precipitation events in the tropical western Pacific simulated by version 4.3 of the Canadian Atmospheric Model (CanAM4.3) are compared against those simulated by version 5.0 of the super-parameterized Community Atmosphere Model (spCAM5). This is done by compositing sub-hourly output of convective rainfall, convective available potential energy (CAPE), CAPE generation due to large-scale forcing in the free troposphere (dCAPELSFT) and near-surface vertical velocity (ω) over the time period May–July 1997. Compared to spCAM5, CanAM4.3 tends to produce more frequent light convective precipitation (<0.2 mm h−1) and underestimates the frequency of extreme convective precipitation (>2 mm h−1). In spCAM5, 5 % of convective precipitation events lasted less than 1.5 h and 75 % lasted between 1.5 and 3.0 h, while in CanAM4.3 80 % of the events lasted less than 1.5 h. Convective precipitation in spCAM5 is found to be a function of dCAPELSFT and the large-scale near-surface ω with variations in ω slightly leading variations in convective precipitation. Convective precipitation in CanAM4.3 does not have the same dependency and instead is found to be a function of CAPE.

Convective response to large-scale forcing in the Tropical Western Pacific simulated by spCAM5 and CanAM4.3

Changes in the large-scale environment during convective precipitation events in the Tropical Western Pacific simulated by version 4.3 of the Canadian Atmospheric Model (CanAM4.3) is compared against those simulated by version 5.0 of the super parameterized Community Atmosphere Model (spCAM5). This is done by compositing sub-hourly output of convective rainfall, convective available potential energy (CAPE), CAPE generation due to large-scale forcing in the free troposphere (dCAPELSFT), and near surface vertical velocity (ω) over the time period May–July 1997. Compared to spCAM5, CanAM4.3 tends to produce more frequent light convective precipitation ( 2 mm h−1). In spCAM5 5 % of convective precipitation events lasted less than 1.5 h and 75 % lasted between 1.5 and 3.0 h while in CanAM4.3 80 % of the events lasted less than 1.5 h. Convective precipitation in spCAM5 is found to be a function of dCAPELSFT and the large-scale near surface ω with variations in ω slightly leading variations in convective precipitation. Convective precipitation in CanAM4.3 does not have the same dependency and instead is found to be a function of CAPE.