Identifying the non-exceedance probability of extreme storm surges as a component of natural-disaster management using tidal-gauge data from Typhoon Maemi in South Korea

Abstract. Global warming, one of the most serious aspects of climate change, can be expected to cause rising sea levels. These, in turn, have been linked to unprecedentedly large typhoons that can cause flooding of low-lying land, coastal invasion, seawater flows into rivers and groundwater, rising river levels, and aberrant tides. To prevent loss of life and property damage caused by typhoons, it is crucial to accurately estimate storm surge related risk. This study therefore develops a statistical model for estimating probability model, based on surge data pertaining to Typhoon Maemi, which struck South Korea in 2003. Specifically, estimation of non-exceedance probability models of the typhoon-related storm surge was achieved via clustered separated peaks-over-threshold simulation, while various distribution models were fitted to the empirical data for investigating the risk of storm surge height. The result of this process found that the result of Weibull distribution was better than other distribution model for Typhoon Maemi's peak total water level.

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Estimation of the non-exceedance probability of extreme storm surges in South Korea using tidal-gauge data

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-21-2611-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (8) ◽

pp. 2611-2631

Author(s):

Sang-Guk Yum ◽

Hsi-Hsien Wei ◽

Sung-Hwan Jang

Keyword(s):

South Korea ◽

Water Level ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Exceedance Probability ◽

Probability Models ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Sea Levels ◽

Extreme Storm ◽

Gauge Data

Abstract. Global warming, one of the most serious aspects of climate change, can be expected to cause rising sea levels. These have in turn been linked to unprecedentedly large typhoons that can cause flooding of low-lying land, coastal invasion, seawater flows into rivers and groundwater, rising river levels, and aberrant tides. To prevent typhoon-related loss of life and property damage, it is crucial to accurately estimate storm-surge risk. This study therefore develops a statistical model for estimating such surges' probability based on surge data pertaining to Typhoon Maemi, which struck South Korea in 2003. Specifically, estimation of non-exceedance probability models of the typhoon-related storm surge was achieved via clustered separated peaks-over-threshold simulation, while various distribution models were fitted to the empirical data for investigating the risk of storm surges reaching particular heights. To explore the non-exceedance probability of extreme storm surges caused by typhoons, a threshold algorithm with clustering methodology was applied. To enhance the accuracy of such non-exceedance probability, the surge data were separated into three different components: predicted water level, observed water level, and surge. Sea-level data from when Typhoon Maemi struck were collected from a tidal-gauge station in the city of Busan, which is vulnerable to typhoon-related disasters due to its geographical characteristics. Fréchet, gamma, log-normal, generalized Pareto, and Weibull distributions were fitted to the empirical surge data, and the researchers compared each one's performance at explaining the non-exceedance probability. This established that Weibull distribution was better than any of the other distributions for modelling Typhoon Maemi's peak total water level. Although this research was limited to one city on the Korean Peninsula and one extreme weather event, its approach could be used to reliably estimate non-exceedance probabilities in other regions where tidal-gauge data are available. In practical terms, the findings of this study and future ones adopting its methodology will provide a useful reference for designers of coastal infrastructure.

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Contemporary monitoring of storm surge activity

Progress in Physical Geography Earth and Environment ◽

10.1177/0309133319879324 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 44 (3) ◽

pp. 299-314 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Tao Ji ◽

Guosheng Li

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Temporal Variability ◽

Satellite Altimetry ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽

Tide Gauges ◽

Sea Levels ◽

Rising Sea Levels

There is growing interest in storm surge activity related to catastrophic events and their unintended consequences in terms of casualties and damage around the world and in increasing populations and issues along coastal areas in the context of global warming and rising sea levels. Accordingly, knowledge on storm surge monitoring has progressed significantly in recent years, and this review, focused on monitoring the spatial and temporal variability of storm surges, responds to the need for a synthesis. Three main components are presented in the review: (1) monitoring storm surges from the viewpoint of three effective approaches; (2) understanding the challenges faced by the three monitoring approaches to increase our awareness of monitoring storm surges; (3) identifying three research priorities and orientations to provide new ideas in future storm surge monitoring. From the perspective of monitoring approaches, recent progress was achieved with respect to tide gauges, satellite altimetry and numerical simulation. Storm surge events can nowadays be identified accurately, and the surge heights can be calculated based on long-term tide gauge observations. The changing frequency and intensity of storm surge activity, combined with statistical analysis and climatology, can be used to enable a better understanding of the possible regional or global long-term trends. Compared with tidal observation data, satellite altimetry has the advantage of providing offshore sea level information to an accuracy of 10 cm. In addition, satellite altimetry can provide more effective observations for studying storm surges, such as transient surge data of the deep ocean. Simultaneously, the study of storm surges via numerical simulation has been further developed, mainly reflected in the gradual improvement of simulation accuracy but also in the refinement of comprehensive factors affecting storm surge activity. However, from the above approaches, storm surge activity monitoring cannot fully reflect the spatial and temporal variability of storm surges, especially the spatial changes at a regional or global scale. In particular, compared to global storm surge, tide gauges and satellite altimeters are relatively sparse, and the spatial distribution is extremely uneven, which often seriously restricts the overall understanding of the spatial distribution features of storm surge activity. Numerical models can be used as a tool to overcome the above-mentioned shortcomings for storm surge monitoring, as they provide real-time spatiotemporal features of storm surge events. But long-term numerical hindcast of tides and surges requires an extremely high computational effort. Considering the shortcomings of the above approaches and the impact of climate change, there is no clear approach to remedy the framework for studying the spatial and temporal characteristics of global or regional storm surge activity at a climatic scale. Therefore, we show how new insights or techniques are useful for the monitoring of future crises. This work is especially important in planning efforts by policymakers, coastal managers, civil protection managers and the general public to adapt to climate change and rising sea levels.

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Impact of rising sea levels on Australian fur seals

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.5786 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 6 ◽

pp. e5786 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Lachlan J. McLean ◽

Steve George ◽

Daniel Ierodiaconou ◽

Roger J. Kirkwood ◽

John P.Y. Arnould

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Sea Levels ◽

Marine Predator ◽

Fur Seal ◽

Eastern Australia ◽

Rising Sea Levels ◽

Pup Mortality ◽

The Impact

Global warming is leading to many unprecedented changes in the ocean-climate system. Sea levels are rising at an increasing rate and are amplifying the impact of storm surges along coastlines. As variability in the timing and strength of storm surges has been shown to affect pup mortality in the Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus), there is a need to identify the potential impacts of increased sea level and storm surges on the breeding areas of this important marine predator in Bass Strait, south-eastern Australia. Using high-resolution aerial photography and topographic data, the present study assessed the impacts of future inundation levels on both current and potential breeding habitats at each colony. Inundation from storm surges, based on a predicted rise in sea level, was modeled at each colony from 2012 to 2100. As sea level increases, progressively less severe storm surge conditions will be required to exceed current inundation levels and, thus, have the potential for greater impacts on pup mortality at Australian fur seal colonies. The results of the present study indicate that by 2100, a 1-in-10 year storm will inundate more habitat on average than a present-day 1-in-100 year storm. The study highlights the site-specific nature of storm surge impacts, and in particular the importance of local colony topography and surrounding bathymetry with small, low-lying colonies impacted the most. An increased severity of storm surges will result in either an increase in pup mortality rates associated with storm surges, or the dispersal of individuals to higher ground and/or new colonies.

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Numerical Simulations of Storm-Surge Inundation Along Innermost Coast of Ariake Sea Based on Past Violent Typhoons

Journal of Disaster Research ◽

10.20965/jdr.2016.p1221 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 11 (6) ◽

pp. 1221-1227 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Noriaki Hashimoto ◽

◽

Masaki Yokota ◽

Masaru Yamashiro ◽

Yukihiro Kinashi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Storm Surge ◽

Coastal Area ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Ocean Model ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Tidal Range ◽

Ariake Sea ◽

Sea Levels ◽

Inundation Area ◽

Rising Sea Levels

The Ariake Sea has Japan’s largest tidal range – up to six meters. Given previous Ariake Sea disasters caused by storm surges and high waves, it is considered highly likely that the bay’s innermost coast will be damaged by typhoon-triggered storm surges. Concern with increased storm-surge-related disasters is associated with rising sea levels and increasing typhoon intensity due to global warming. As increasingly more potentially disastrous typhoons cross the area, preventing coastal disasters has become increasingly important. The first step toward doing so is damage prediction, which requires numerical simulation. Our study considers the tracks of typhoons considerably influencing the Ariake Sea. To examine storm-surge risk related to both inundation area and process, we calculated storm surges inundating the Sea’s innermost coastal area using an improved ocean-flow finite-volume coastal ocean model. Results showed that enhanced storm surges were to be anticipated and that inundation areas could be extensive where typhoons followed a route from west to northeast across the Sea. We also found that even under current climatic conditions, typhoons able to cause significant storm-surge and inundation disasters could adversely affect the Bay’s innermost coastal area. Our analysis of this area and process indicated that the inundation extent around the bay’s innermost coast varies with the typhoon, confirming the importance of determining typhoon routes triggering the potentially greatest inundation damage.

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Effects of climate change on spatiotemporal patterns of tropical cyclone tracks and their implications for coastal agriculture in Myanmar

Paddy and Water Environment ◽

10.1007/s10333-021-00842-x ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Akira Hirano

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Considerable Increase ◽

Hot Spot ◽

Coastal Region ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Coastal Areas ◽

Spatiotemporal Patterns ◽

Sea Levels ◽

Rising Sea Levels

AbstractImportant aspects for understanding the effects of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) are the frequency of TCs and their tracking patterns. Coastal areas are increasingly threatened by rising sea levels and associated storm surges brought on by TCs. Rice production in Myanmar relies strongly on low-lying coastal areas. This study aims to provide insights into the effects of global warming on TCs and the implications for sustainable development in vulnerable coastal areas in Myanmar. Using TC records from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship dataset during the 30-year period from 1983 to 2012, a hot spot analysis based on Getis-Ord (Gi*) statistics was conducted to identify the spatiotemporal patterns of TC tracks along the coast of Myanmar. The results revealed notable changes in some areas along the central to southern coasts during the study period. These included a considerable increase in TC tracks (p value < 0.01) near the Ayeyarwady Delta coast, otherwise known as “the rice bowl” of the nation. This finding aligns with trends in published studies and reinforced the observed trends with spatial statistics. With the intensification of TCs due to global warming, such a significant increase in TC experiences near the major rice-producing coastal region raises concerns about future agricultural sustainability.

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APPLICABILITY OF THE VERTICAL TELESCOPIC BREAKWATER USING THE PAST TYPHOON IN TOKYO BAY

Coastal Engineering Proceedings ◽

10.9753/icce.v36v.structures.35 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 35

Author(s):

Yako Harada ◽

Yukihisa Matsumoto ◽

Kazuho Morishita ◽

Nobuyuki Oonishi ◽

Kazuyoshi Kihara ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Numerical Calculations ◽

Numerical Analyses ◽

Tokyo Bay ◽

Worst Case ◽

Sea Levels ◽

Long Period ◽

The Past

The vertical telescopic breakwater(VTB), which is a new breakwater that permits the navigation of ships, remain at the bottom of the sea during calm and rise to the surface during tsunamis or storm surges. Kawai et al. (2017) and Arikawa et al. (2019) found that it is effective not only for swell waves, but also for long-period waves simulating tsunamis and storm surges by previous experiments and numerical analyses. However, there have been few studies on the performance of VTB by numerical calculations in actual ports using actual typhoons. In addition, sea levels and changes in characteristics of typhoon due to climate change are predicted to occur; hence, we are concerned about the damage in all quarters caused by storm surge inundation, especially at Tokyo. Therefore, in this study, we used hypothetical typhoons under worst-case scenarios and quantitatively evaluated the protection performance of VTB against hypothetical typhoons with different aperture rates of VTB in Tokyo Bay by the numerical simulation.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/qof5ixKqIiA

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Tropical Cyclone-Induced Hazards Caused by Storm Surges and Large Waves on the Coast of China

Geosciences ◽

10.3390/geosciences9030131 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (3) ◽

pp. 131 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Zai-Jin You

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Chinese Economy ◽

Coastal Hazards ◽

Economic Losses ◽

Sea Levels ◽

The North ◽

Coastal Waves ◽

Storm Wave ◽

Rising Sea Levels

The mainland coast of China is about 18,000 km long and houses about 70% of China’s largest cities and 50% of its population. For the last few decades, the rapid growth of the Chinese economy has resulted in extensive development of the coastal infrastructure and property, large-scale expansion of coastal ports, excessive reclamation of coastal land, and a significant increase in the coastal population. Previous studies have indicated that tropical cyclones (TCs) have struck the coast of China at a higher frequency and intensity, and TC-induced coastal hazards have resulted in heavy human losses and huge losses to the Chinese coastal economy. In analyzing the long-term and most recent coastal hazard data collected on the coast of China, this study has found that TC-induced storm surges are responsible for 88% of the direct coastal economic losses, while TC-induced large coastal waves have caused heavy loss of human lives, and that the hazard-caused losses are shown to increase spatially from the north to south, peak in the southern coastal sector, and well correlate to storm wave energy flux. The frequency and intensity of coastal hazards on the coast of China are expected to increase in response to future changing TC conditions and rising sea levels. A simple two-parameter conceptual model is also presented for the assessment of coastal inundation and erosion hazards on the coast of China.

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Baltic Sea coastal erosion; a case study from the Jastrzębia Góra region

Geologos ◽

10.2478/logos-2014-0018 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 20 (4) ◽

pp. 259-268 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Grzegorz Uścinowicz ◽

Regina Kramarska ◽

Dorota Kaulbarsz ◽

Leszek Jurys ◽

Jerzy Frydel ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Storm Surges ◽

Hydrotechnical Construction ◽

Aerial Photographs ◽

Sea Levels ◽

General Importance ◽

Wave Effects ◽

Active Landslide ◽

Rising Sea Levels ◽

Remote Sensing Methods

Abstract The coastline in the Jastrzębia Góra area can be divided into three major zones of general importance: a beach and barrier section, a cliff section, and a section protected by a heavy hydrotechnical construction. These areas are characterised by a diverse geology and origin, and hence different vulnerability to erosion. In addition, observations have demonstrated a different pace of erosion within each zone. Based on the results obtained by remote sensing methods (analysis of aerial photographs and maps), it has been determined that the coastline in the barrier area, i.e., to the west of Jastrzębia Góra, moved landwards by about 130 m, in a period of 100 years, and 80 m over about 50 years. A smaller displacement of the shoreline could be observed within the cliff. Between the middle of the twentieth and the start of the twenty-first centuries the shore retreated by about 25 m. However, in recent years, an active landslide has led to the displacement of the uppermost part of the cliff locally up to 25 m. Another issue is, functioning since 2000, a heavy hydrotechnical construction which has been built in order to protect the most active part of the cliff. The construction is not stable and its western part, over a distance of 50 m, has moved almost 2 m vertically downwards and c. 2.5 m horizontally towards the sea in the past two years. This illustrates that the erosional factor does not comprise only marine abrasion, but also involves land-based processes determined by geology and hydrogeology. Changes in the shoreline at the beach and barrier part are constantly conditioned by rising sea levels, the slightly sloping profile of the sea floor and low elevation values of the backshore and dune areas. Cliffs are destroyed by mass wasting and repetitive storm surges that are responsible for the removal of the colluvium which protects the coast from adverse wave effects. Presumably, mass movements combined with groundwater outflow from the cliff, plus sea abrasion cause destabilisation of the cliff protection construction.

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Rising Seas: Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change

10.26686/wgtn.16715518 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Shivani Patel

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Management Practices ◽

New Technologies ◽

Global Climate ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Management Plan ◽

Integrated System ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Sea Levels ◽

Rising Sea Levels

Science tells us that we are close to the irreversible tipping point into an unknown climate of the Anthropocene in which humanity has no option but to adapt or to be destroyed. Human influence is changing the earth and a major factor is urbanisation. Cities are one of the largest contributors to global climate change. This thesis develops a design-led research methodology and approach that develops alternative, speculative landscape intervention strategies to bridge the gap between climate change science and the landscape and the residents of Island Bay, in the city of Wellington, New Zealand. This research aims to take full advantage of new technologies and systems to provide resilient social, ecological and physical solutions for the coastal neighbourhood in the face of climate-related change. These solutions form a comprehensive framework and tools that anticipate a foreseeable future of saturated landscapes. It is a strategy that builds the adaptive capacity of the coastal zone, enhances existing natural systems, accommodates a variety of best coastal management practices and integrates alternative concepts in the coastal neighbourhood adaptation management plan. These solutions address the unpredictable issue of rising sea levels, storm surges and coastal inundation. In addition, the approach fosters urban environment solutions at various scales, such what a property owner can do and what public/private cooperation can do. Overall, this new integrated system approach has the potential to recalibrate urban coastal environments, catalyse resiliency and provide a robust model for designing mitigative, adaptative coastal communities in response to rising sea-levels and to support a new set of relationships between nature and urbanity.

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A STUDY OF ADAPTATION CAPACITY OF COASTAL DISASTERS DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN ORDER TO STRENGTHEN SOUTHWEST AREA OF TAIWAN

Coastal Engineering Proceedings ◽

10.9753/icce.v33.management.10 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 1 (33) ◽

pp. 10

Author(s):

Hsiang-Lan Juan ◽

Tai-Wen Hsu ◽

Yuan-Jyh Lan ◽

Yue-Chen Lin ◽

Ching-Jer Huang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Risk Estimation ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Coastal Environments ◽

Coastal Zones ◽

Situation Analysis ◽

Sea Levels ◽

Adaptation Capacity ◽

Southwestern Taiwan ◽

Rising Sea Levels

The adaptive capacity of coastal disasters caused by climate change in order to strengthen southwestern Taiwan against natural calamities in the future is investigated in this paper. In Taiwan, the coastal zone suffers from approximately four typhoons each year, and the exceptionally high sea levels caused by storm surges frequently results in coastal disasters and hinders the development of the coastal area. The problems of rising sea levels and frequent typhoons induced by climate change have threatened the Taiwanese coastal environments. These influences as well as serious land subsidence upon a scenario year were carried out in the coastal areas near the cities of Chiayi and Tainan in Taiwan. The present study focuses on the construction of the disaster characteristics on Chiayi and Tainan Coasts, model establishment for situation analysis of water environmental factors, impact estimation and indefinite analysis on disasters, and vulnerability and risk estimation of coastal disasters. An understanding of the marine and meteorological characteristics in coastal zones is conducive to raising the efficiency of the defense against coastal disasters. These results could provide useful information to establish strategies to implement as well as how to analyze the benefits of such a program.

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