scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of the Link between Economic Growth and Exports in Côte d’Ivoire

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 94
Author(s):  
Daouda Coulibaly ◽  
Fulgence Zran Goueu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

This paper aims to analyze the relationship between exports and economic growth in Côte d’Ivoire. In order to achieve this objective, annual data for the period 1960-2017 were tested by using the cointegration approach of Pesaran, Shin and Smith, including the causality test of Breitung and Schreiber. According to our analysis it is only exports that drive economic growth and not the opposite. Exports act positively and significantly on economic growth in the short term as well as in the long term. The causality test of Breitung and schreiber indicates a one-way long-run causal relationship ranging from exports to gross domestic product (GDP). All those results show that exports are a source of Ivorian economic growth.

scholarly journals International Application Model Short-Long Term Between GDP and Consumption : Case Study Indonesia

ECONOMICS ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-90
Author(s):  
Teguh Sugiarto ◽  
Ludiro Madu ◽  
Ahmad Subagyo ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Term Change ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

SUMMARY More recently, significant fluctuations in the Indonesian economy justify the need to pay more attention to this issue. In this case, the main purpose of this research is to know the relationship between two issues related to Indonesian macro economy called consumption and GDP for data period during 1967 until 2014. This study investigates the relationship between GDP variables and Indonesian consumption consumption variables using the test ARDL, cointegration and Granger causality. The result of the research can be concluded that, there is long-run equilibrium relationship between GDP and consumption with long-term ARDL model, 10% change of consumption will produce long-term change of 44% in GDP. It is not surprising that there is no short-run equilibrium relationship between GDP and consumption. 10% of consumption will result in a short-term ARDL model change of 95% in GDP. The variables and consumption of GDP are cointegrated in the long run significantly at lag interval 10, whereas the use of lag interval 1 and 5 is not credited in the long run. Using a cointegration test with lag interval 1, 5 and 10 indicates significant for all usage slowness. So it can be summarized in the context of GDP and coordinated short-term economic consumption for all the prevailing interval lags. concluded that long-term causality test results between GDP variables and significant consumption with time intervals 5 and 10. intervals 1, 15 and 20 have no long-term causality relationship between GDP variables and consumption variables. a short-term causal model. With lagging intervals of 1, 5, 10 and 15, there is a short-term causal relationship between the variable GDP and consumption. As for the use of delay interval 20 there is no causal relationship in the short term between the variable GDP and consumption in Indonesia.

scholarly journals Econometric analysis of oil consumption and economic growth in Nepal

2012 ◽  
pp. 135-143
Author(s):  
Tara Prasad Bhusal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

Oil is one of the main inputs for many sectors like transportation, manufacturing, electricity generation and others. Oil is also very important for the economic growth of Nepal. This paper examines the short and long-run causality between oil consumption and Gross Domestic Product for Nepal using annual data covering the period of 1975-2009. Granger causality test is employed to analyse the relationship between economic growth and oil consumption variables with same order of integration (I (1)). In this study is found that there exists bi-directional Granger causality between oil consumption and economic growth in the short and long run.Key words: Oilconsumption; Economic Growth; Causality; Co-integrationEconomic Journal of Development Issues Vol. 11 & 12 No. 1-2 (2010) Combined IssuePage: 135-143Uploaded date: 10 April, 2012

scholarly journals Trade and Economic Growth: The Case of India

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Simran Sethi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Third ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

The objective of this paper is to investigate the short run as well as long run relationship between GDP, exports and imports for India using annual data from 1982 to 2016. Through this paper, I examine the four main hypotheses regarding the relation between exports, imports and economic growth. The first one is export-led growth hypothesis, the second one is the import-led growth hypothesis, the third one is the growth-led exports and lastly, the growth-led imports hypothesis. The Johansen’s cointegration is used to examine the long term relationship and empirical results indicate that there is a long run relationship between GDP, exports and imports. The short term relationship is measured using the Granger causality test and the statistical results suggest unidirectional causality from GDP to exports and GDP to imports in conformity with the growth-led exports and growth-led imports hypothesis respectively.

scholarly journals FDI and Economic Growth in EU13 Countries: Cointegration and Causality Tests

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 47-63
Author(s):  
Vlatka Bilas ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
European Union ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Panel Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Relationship

Foreign direct investments are seen as a prerequisite for gaining and maintaining competitiveness. The research objective of this study is to examine the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in “new” European Union member countries using various unit root, cointegration, as well as causality tests. The paper employs annual data for FDI and gross domestic product (GDP) from 2002 to 2018 for the 13 most recent members of European Union (EU13): Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. An estimated panel ARDL (PMG) model found evidence that there is a long-run equilibrium between the LogGDP, LogFDI and LogFDIP series, with the rate of adjustment back to equilibrium between 3.27% and 20.67%. In the case of the LogFDI series, long-run coefficients are highly statistically significant in all four models, varying between 0.0828 and 0.3019. These coefficients indicate that a 1% increase in LogFDI increases LogGDP between 0.0828% and 0.3019%. Results of a Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test indicated that a relationship between the GDP growth rate and FDI growth rate is only indirect. Finally, only weak evidence was shown that FDI had a statistically significant impact on GDP in the EU13 countries over the period 2002-2018. This report of findings contributes to the literature concerning FDI and economic growth, namely regarding the current understanding of the relationship between these two factors.

scholarly journals Exports and Economic Growth: The Arab Experience

2000 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Ibrahim EL-Sakka ◽  
Naief hamad Al-Murairi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Theoretical Background ◽  
Arab Countries ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Stationarity Tests ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Cointegration Relationship

This paper aims at analysing the relationship between exports and economic growth in the Arab countries using annual data for the period 1970-1999. Section two of this study presents a theoretical background of the relationship between exports and economic growth. Literature review is found in Section 3. In Section 4, the methodological issues of studying this relationship are discussed. Results of stationarity tests using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) as well as Bivariate Johansen-Juseluis tests for cointegration are presented in Section 5. Stationarity tests suggest that time series are non-stationary in their levels and seem to be stationary in their first differences. Testing for long-run cointegration relationship using Johansen-Juseluis approach, it is found that in general there is no cointegration relationship between exports and GDP. For this reason, we abandoned the error correction model and tested for causality using different versions of Granger’s causality test. We found mixed results about the causal relationship between exports and GDP in Arab countries.

THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INSURANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1986-2010)

2012 ◽  
Vol 02 (12) ◽  
pp. 49-57
Author(s):  
TAIWO AKINLO
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study examined the causal relationship between insurance and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1986-2010. The Vector Error Correction model (VECM) was adopted. The cointegration test shows that GDP, premium, inflation and interest rate are cointegrated when GDP is the edogeneous variable. The granger causality test reveals that there is no causality between economic growth and premium in short run while premum, inflation and interest rate Granger cause GDP in the long run which means there is unidirectional causality running from premium, inflation and interest rate to GDP. This means insurance contributes to economic growth in Nigeria as they provide the necessary long-term fund for investment and absolving risks.

scholarly journals Dynamic Effects of Foreign Portfolio Investment on Economic Growth in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-12
Author(s):  
O.W. Toyin ◽  
Ad. E. Oludayol
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Foreign Portfolio Investment ◽  
Domestic Savings ◽  
The Relationship

The slow growth rate and the deficit of full-fledged financial security have created the preconditions for studying the relationship between foreign investment and economic growth. In previous literature, key emphases on this issue were studied in the short term and in terms of static functioning of the economy. Thus, this article purposely studied the dynamic nature of the development of the relationship between foreign investment and economic growth in Nigeria from 1980 to 2018. The use of the Augmented-Dickey Fuller test confirmed the precondition for adopting dynamic techniques to test the significant role of foreign portfolio investment (among other analyzed factors – domestic savings, government capital expenditures, market capitalization) in the formation of gross domestic product. The use of the lag selection method allowed to determine the optimal lag for estimating the autoregressive distributed model, which substantiates the effectiveness and reliability of the autoregressive distributed lag model. The information base of the study was the statistical bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria. The results of empirical estimations in the short term showed that domestic savings had significant and negative impact on gross domestic product. The study empirically confirms and theoretically proves that foreign investment, domestic savings, government spending and market capitalization determine long-term trends in gross domestic product formation in Nigeria. Practically, the empirical result revealed that the presence of a significant deficit of domestic savings in Nigeria creates obstacles to successful economic growth in the country both in the short and long term; portfolio foreign investment accelerates economic growth in the long run to a greater extent than in the short run. Keywords: autoregressive distributed model, Dickie-Fuller test, economic growth, foreign investment, double gap theory.

scholarly journals HUBUNGAN KAUSALITAS KEMISKINAN, TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN, DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI PROVINSI SULAWESI SELATAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-23
Author(s):  
Akhmad Akhmad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Short Term ◽  
South Sulawesi ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term

Economic development basically aims to increase economic growth, reduce poverty and unemployment. Therefore the research aims to find out the causal relationship between economic growth, unemployment and poverty in the Southern Province. This research used panel data of 24 districts / cities in South Sulawesi Province during 2007 to 2018, which was obtained from the Central Statistics Agency. Data were then analyzed using Vector Autoregression analysis. The results showed that shocks to economic growth have an impact on reducing unemployment and poverty rates both short and long term. Meanwhile shocks to unemployment, have an impact on increasing poverty rates in the short and long term, and have an impact on declining economic growth in the short term, but slowly economic growth returns to the balance point. Furthermore, the shock to poverty also has an impact on increasing unemployment in the short term, but slowly leads to a point of convergence in the long run. It is better to make economic growth decrease in the short term, but slowly towards the point of balance in the long run.

scholarly journals The Relationship Between Foreign Direct Investment Oriented Economic Growth in Uganda: An Empirical Study Based on VAR Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabyonga Barbra ◽  
Hina Nawaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Vector Autoregressive Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Economic growth as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over Uganda, from 1980-2018. Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) and Granger Causality test were used. The results show thatlag 1 is the optimal lag hence bivariate VAR (1) model was used. GDP and FDI exhibits long-term equilibrium since the two-time series are cointegrated in long run. The causality test indicates that there exists a unilateral relationship between FDI and GDP, and FDI causes GDP growth and not vice versa. Understanding these causality links can help in future forecasting of Uganda's economic growth.

scholarly journals Mutual influences and trends of Global Economic Growth and Global Mergers and Acquisitions

2020 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. 01032
Author(s):  
Shide Feng ◽  
Zhaokai Wang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Mergers And Acquisitions ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
The Other ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Recessions ◽  
Global Economic Growth ◽  
The Relationship

The paper is to analyze the relationship between Global Economic Growth and Global Mergers and Acquisitions. After applying empirical analysis, conclude that Global Economic Growth and Global Mergers and Acquisitions have mutual influences on each other in the long-term period. In the short-term period, the results show the same trend. But in some short certain periods like rapid economic recessions, the trend shows the other way around. The paper also analyzes the economic intuitions of the mutual influences.

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