The Determinants of Unemployment Rate in Jordan: A Multivariate Approach

This study aims to investigate the determinants of unemployment rate in Jordan during the period (1992-2015). The Augmented Dickey- Fuller test (ADF) was utilized to examine the stationarity of the variables of this study. The results have shown that the variables are stationary at different orders, I(0), I(1), and I(2). The Granger causality test found that there is a unidirectional causal relationship running from private investment to unemployment rate.Two tools of analysis were employed: impulse response function and variance decomposition through applying a vector autoregression (VAR) model. The final results have shown that private investment has a negative impact on unemployment rate in Jordan, which explains about 2.64% of the variations in the unemployment rate in the second period and (1.58%) in the fourth period. This percentage also tends to decline to a level at which the explanatory power of private investment for the forecast error in the unemployment rate can reach 1.34% in the ninth period.

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Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth and Employment: Evidence from China

International Research in Economics and Finance ◽

10.20849/iref.v2i1.320 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 12

Author(s):

Yugang He

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Foreign Direct Investment ◽

Direct Investment ◽

High Speed ◽

Impulse Response Function ◽

Data Series ◽

Annual Data ◽

Causality Test ◽

Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽

Positive Effect

This paper applies the annual data series from 1983 to 2016 and introduces an employment variable to analyze the interaction among foreign direct investment, economic growth and employment. Three variables are used to conduct an empirical analysis under the VAR model. Via the analysis of Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition, the results show that the foreign direct investment has a positive effect on economic growth and employment, and the economic growth has a positive effect on employment. The employment and economic growth exist bidirectional causality. Meanwhile, the foreign direct investment can also result in an increase in the employment. More importantly, this paper provides some ideas for China’s government to settle some social problems such as employment and economic growth. Specifically, at present, China’s government still should encourage foreign investors to invest in China because it can be beneficial to employment and economic growth in China. Of course, the structure of employment also should be optimized so as to keep high speed economic growth. Simultaneously, the high speed economic growth can improve the employment in China.

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Trade Openness Effect on Income Inequality: Empirical Evidence from Indonesia

Signifikan Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi ◽

10.15408/sjie.v7i1.5527 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 1-14

Author(s):

Lestari Agusalim ◽

Fanny Suzuda Pohan

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Income Inequality ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Forecast Error ◽

Trade Openness ◽

Impulse Response Function ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Error Variance ◽

Long Run ◽

Forecast Error Variance

This research analyzed the effect of international trade openness to income inequality in Indonesia using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The data used is the secondary data, which are the export-import value, gross domestic product (GDP), GDP per capita, open unemployment rate, and Gini index. The results of this study indicate that in the short term the trade openness has negative impact significantly on the income inequality. However, in the long-run, it does not show any significant effect in decreasing the income inequality rate. The impulse response function (IRF) concluded that income inequality gives a positive response, except on the third year. Based on the forecast error variance decomposition (FEDV), the trade openness does not provide any significant contribution in effecting the income inequality in Indonesia, but economic growth does. Nevertheless, in long-term, the economic growth makes the income inequality getting worse than in the short-term.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i1.5527

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Policy Uncertainty, Macroeconomic Dynamics, And US Unemployment Conditions

Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR) ◽

10.19030/jabr.v28i5.7222 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 28 (5) ◽

pp. 777 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Rexford Abaidoo

Keyword(s):

Unemployment Rate ◽

Performance Indicators ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Granger Causality Test ◽

Policy Uncertainty ◽

Font Size ◽

Causality Test ◽

Special Character ◽

Significant Negative Impact ◽

And Performance

This study provides empirical verification of the link between policy uncertainty<a name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" href="http://journals.cluteonline.com/index.php/JABR/author/submit/3?articleId=7222#_ftn1">[1]</a>, unemployment rate and other key US macroeconomic and performance indicators. A VAR augmented model (augmented by impulse responds function (IRF)) and Granger Causality test are employed in this study. Empirical results based on quarterly time series data (spanning the period 1960 to 2011) shows deficit induced policy uncertainty has significant negative impact on key US macroeconomic and performance indicators. This study also finds that one standard deviation policy uncertainty shock has immediate and significant negative impact on unemployment rate, GDP growth and other indicators tested. Concluding Granger causality test also shows deficit induced policy uncertainty granger cause variability in GDP and fixed private investment growth. <div style="mso-element: footnote-list;"> <hr size="1" /><div style="mso-element: footnote;" id="ftn1"> <a name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" href="http://journals.cluteonline.com/index.php/JABR/author/submit/3?articleId=7222#_ftnref1"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">[1]</a> Measured in terms of Relative Political Capacity (RPC) formally introduced by Organski and Kugler (1980); and modified by Kugler and Arbetman (1997). </div> </div>

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Econometric modelling of unemployment in Serbia during period 2008-2013

Yugoslav journal of operations research ◽

10.2298/yjor140430026a ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 24 (3) ◽

pp. 333-346

Author(s):

Aleksandra Anic ◽

Zorica Mladenovic

Keyword(s):

Economic Crisis ◽

Unemployment Rate ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Impulse Response Function ◽

Nominal Exchange Rate ◽

Negative Consequences ◽

Real Wages ◽

Vector Autoregressive ◽

Set Up ◽

Modelling Approach

The purpose of the paper is to econometrically exploit the characteristics of unemployment in Serbia upon the start of the 2008 economic crisis. The methodological framework is based on the cointegrated vector autoregressive model that consists of the following macroeconomic variables: unemployment rate, prices, nominal wages and nominal exchange rate. These variables are unit-root processes and their relationship is examined within the multivariate cointegrated time series set-up. Following the deductive modelling approach, we reached the specification that explains unemployment rate by real wages. The results show the negative consequences of the economic crisis to the labour market, with an extremely high increase in the unemployment rate. Strong negative impact of real wages on unemployment rate is additionally confirmed by its dynamic effects throughout the impulse response function.

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EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF INDIA’S FOREIGN TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

International Journal of Research -GRANTHAALAYAH ◽

10.29121/granthaalayah.v8.i10.2020.1805 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (10) ◽

pp. 105-111

Author(s):

Khujan Singh ◽

Anil Kumar

Keyword(s):

Time Series Data ◽

Unit Root Test ◽

Series Data ◽

Significant Implication ◽

Causality Test ◽

First Order ◽

Long Run ◽

Directional Relation ◽

Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽

Vecm Granger Causality

The present study is an attempt to examine long run relationship among India’s GDP, Exports and Imports for which yearly time series data from 1995 to 2018 has been collected. Data for India’s GDP has been collected from RBI website and India’s export and import data has been collected form Ministry of Commerce and Industry website. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test for stationarity found that studied variables become stationary at first order of difference. While, Johnson cointegration test revealed long run cointegration between India’s GDP, exports and imports. The results of VECM Granger causality test exhibited bi-directional relationship between India’s GDP and India’s exports, whereas uni-directional relation has been found between India’s GDP and India’s imports. These results have significant implication for India’s export import policy and to achieve a target of $5 trillion economy till 2024-2025.

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Measuring pedestrian volume by land use mix: Presenting a new entropy-based index by weighting walking generation units

Environment and Planning B Urban Analytics and City Science ◽

10.1177/2399808318824112 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 47 (7) ◽

pp. 1219-1236 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Ha Na Im ◽

Chang Gyu Choi

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Urban Studies ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Explanatory Power ◽

Built Environments ◽

Estimation Model ◽

Land Use Types ◽

Land Use Mix ◽

The Relationship ◽

The Empirical Analysis

This study proposes an alternative to the conventional entropy-based land use mix index, which is generally used to measure the diversity of land use. Pedestrian volume was selected as the dependent variable as it represents the vitality of districts, which many recent urban studies now consider important. The study investigates an entropy-based weighted land use mix index, which is weighted by different land use types. For the index, different areas are needed to generate a unit of pedestrian volume, whose measure is m2/person/day. The study demonstrates that this alternative is more effective than the existing conventionally used entropy-based land use mix index for explaining pedestrian volume. The research confirms that the conventionally used entropy-based land use mix index can have a positive or negative impact depending on the land use characteristics of the survey points because the conventionally used entropy-based land use mix index has a non-linear relationship with pedestrian volume. By analysing 9727 surveyed locations of pedestrian volume in Seoul, Korea, the study demonstrates that the weighted land use mix index, rather than the conventionally used entropy-based land use mix index, can improve the explanatory power of the estimation model for the relationship between pedestrian volume and built environments, showing consistent results throughout the empirical analysis. In future built-environment studies, the utility of the weighted land use mix index is expected to improve if studies include how to find the accurate weighting of the land use in estimating the pedestrian volume.

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Unemployment and COVID-19 Impact in Greece: A Vector Autoregression (VAR) Data Analysis

Engineering Proceedings ◽

10.3390/engproc2021005041 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

pp. 41

Author(s):

Christos Katris

Keyword(s):

Data Analysis ◽

Response Function ◽

Unemployment Rate ◽

Vector Autoregression ◽

Impulse Response Function ◽

Youth Unemployment ◽

The Other ◽

Var Model ◽

Unemployment Rates ◽

The Impact

In this paper, the scope is to study whether and how the COVID-19 situation affected the unemployment rate in Greece. To achieve this, a vector autoregression (VAR) model is employed and data analysis is carried out. Another interesting question is whether the situation affected more heavily female and the youth unemployment (under 25 years old) compared to the overall unemployment. To predict the future impact of COVID-19 on these variables, we used the Impulse Response function. Furthermore, there is taking place a comparison of the impact of the pandemic with the other European countries for overall, female, and youth unemployment rates. Finally, the forecasting ability of such a model is compared with ARIMA and ANN univariate models.

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Construction Sector Contribution to Economic Stability: Malaysian GDP Distribution

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13095012 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (9) ◽

pp. 5012

Author(s):

Wesam Salah Alaloul ◽

Muhammad Ali Musarat ◽

Muhammad Babar Ali Rabbani ◽

Qaiser Iqbal ◽

Ahsen Maqsoom ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sustainable Development ◽

Construction Industry ◽

Pearson Correlation ◽

Impulse Response Function ◽

Equilibrium Analysis ◽

Construction Sector ◽

Causality Test ◽

Vector Error Correction ◽

The World ◽

Pearson Correlation Test

The construction sector exerts an exceptional impact on economic development all over the world. Adequate buildings and infrastructures made by the construction sector ensure that a country reaches certain targets like social development, industrialization, freight transportation, sustainable development, and urbanization. This study aims to determine the construction sector’s connectivity with other sectors through complex linkages that contribute immensely to the economy and gross domestic product (GDP). The data were collected from the Department of Statistics Malaysia and the World Bank from the year 1970 to 2019, and the Pearson correlation test, the cointegration test, and the Granger causality test were conducted. The vector error correction model (VECM) was created for short-term and long-term equilibrium analysis and impulse response function (IRF) was performed to study construction industry behavior. Afterwards, the forecasting was done for the year 2020 to 2050 of the Malaysian economy and GDP for the required sectors. It was revealed that some sectors, such as agriculture and services, have forward linkages while other sectors, such as manufacturing and mining, are independent of construction sector causality, which signifies the behavior of the contributing sectors when a recession occurs, hence generating significant revenue. The Malaysian economy is moving towards sustainable production with more emphasis on the construction sector. The outcome can be used as a benchmark by other countries to achieve sustainable development. The significance of this study is its usefulness for experts all over the world in terms of allocating resources to make the construction sector a sustainable sector after receiving a shock. A sustainable conceptual framework has been suggested for global application that shows the factors involved in the growth of the construction industry to ensure its sustainable development with time.

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The Price Determinants of the EU Allowance in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su10114009 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (11) ◽

pp. 4009 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Chune Chung ◽

Minkyu Jeong ◽

Jason Young

Keyword(s):

Emissions Trading ◽

Causal Effect ◽

Forecast Error ◽

Ghg Emissions ◽

Relative Effect ◽

Causality Test ◽

Coal Price ◽

Emissions Trading Scheme ◽

Trading Scheme ◽

The Eu

The Kyoto Protocol came into effect in 1997 to curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to address the problem of climate change. The Protocol includes a market-based mechanism designed to offset GHG emissions, called the emissions trading scheme (ETS), allowing companies to “trade” their shortage or surplus allowance. This study examines the determinants of the EU allowance (EUA) price in Phase 3 of the EU ETS (2013–2017). First, the causality between the EUA price and other variables is determined using a Granger causality test. Second, the correlation between the EUA price and each variable is measured using a VECM estimation and an impulse response function. Finally, the relative effect of each variable on the EUA price is determined using a forecast error variance decomposition. The results show that the EUA price has a causal effect on the prices of electricity and natural gas. Second, all variables, except the minimum temperature, show a positive relationship with the EUA price. Furthermore, when unexpected shocks occur, the EUA price shows the highest response to its past price, followed by the electricity price. Third, the past EUA price has the most influence on the EUA price, followed by the coal price.

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Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Development and Economic Growth Evidence from Saudi Arabia

International Journal of Financial Research ◽

10.5430/ijfr.v8n4p228 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 8 (4) ◽

pp. 228 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Najeeb Muhammad Nasir ◽

Mohammed Ziaur Rehman ◽

Nasir Ali

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Foreign Direct Investment ◽

Financial Development ◽

Direct Investment ◽

Impulse Response Function ◽

Saudi Arabian ◽

Causality Test ◽

Long Run ◽

Oil Resources ◽

Integration Test

This study is an effort to explain and establish a relationship among foreign direct investment, financial development and economic growth in Saudi Arabian context for the period of 1970 to 2015 by employing Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and modified Granger Casualty Models. The result of Johansen co-integration test illustrates that no long run co-integration can be established among the variables. VAR has established a link between economic growth, financial development and foreign direct investment. The Granger causality test also confirms that economic growth causes foreign direct investment and financial development which is a unidirectional causality running from economic growth towards foreign direct investment and financial development. No significant causality can be observed empirically between foreign direct investment and financial development. This feature can be attributed to the fact that Saudi Arabian economy is still heavily dependent on its oil resources which is the driving force behind growth. Impulse Response Function has been utilized in order to observe the response to the shocks among the variables.

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