A Vertically Resolved MSE Framework Highlights the Role of the Boundary Layer in Convective Self-Aggregation

Convective self-aggregation refers to a phenomenon in which random convection can self-organize into large-scale clusters over an ocean surface with uniform temperature in cloud-resolving models. Previous literature studies convective aggregation primarily by analyzing vertically integrated (VI) moist static energy (MSE) variance. That is the global MSE variance, including both the local MSE variance at a given altitude and the covariance of MSE anomalies between different altitudes. Here we present a vertically resolved (VR) MSE framework that focuses on the local MSE variance to study convective self-aggregation. Using a cloud-resolving simulation, we show that the development of self-aggregation is associated with an increase of local MSE variance, and that the diabatic and adiabatic generation of the MSE variance is mainly dominated by the boundary layer (BL, the lowest 2 km). The results agree with recent numerical simulation results and the available potential energy analyses showing that the BL plays a key role in the development of self-aggregation. Additionally, we find that the lower free troposphere (2 - 4 km) also generates significant MSE variance in the first 15 days. We further present a detailed comparison between the global and local MSE variance frameworks in their mathematical formulation and diagnostic results, highlighting their differences.

Observational study on boundary-layer moist static energy budget over the tropical western Pacific and its variability associated with boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation

Moist static energy (MSE) in the atmospheric boundary layer (BL) is one of the essential parameters determining convective activity over tropical oceanic areas. It is thus important to quantitatively understand BL MSE budget processes and their variability. Among these processes, only few studies have evaluated contributions of entrainment across the BL top and convective downdraft. This study aims to estimate these contributions by analyzing upper-air and surface meteorological observations obtained using Research Vessel Mirai over the tropical western Pacific in June 2008. Daily-mean downward mass fluxes due to the two processes are calculated using BL dry static energy and moisture budget equations under the BL quasi-equilibrium approximation. Estimated mass fluxes are consistent with convective activity observed by a shipborne weather radar and a ceilometer. This study further examines how the mass fluxes and budget processes are modulated when a convectively active phase of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation arrives at the observation area in the second half of the month. It is found that, while the contribution of the entrainment does not change significantly, the convective downdraft mass flux and the resultant BL MSE export increase 5 times and 3 times, respectively, in the convectively active period compared with those in the pre-active period. Furthermore, ~1/4 of the increase in the convective downdraft mass flux is attributable to the increase in MSE of convective downdraft air associated with mid-tropospheric moistening.

Energetics of super cyclone ‘GONU’ and very severe cyclonic storm ‘SIDR’

This paper discusses the energetics aspects of two tropical cyclones formed over the north Indian Ocean during 2007, viz., the Super Cyclonic Storm (GONU) and the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (SIDR). From the analysis of various energetics terms such as the Eddy Available Potential Energy (AE), Zonal Available Potential Energy (AZ), Zonal Kinetic Energy (KZ), Eddy Kinetic Energy (KE) and their generation and inter-conversions i.e., G(AE), G(AZ), C(AE, KE), C(AZ, KZ), C(KZ, KE) and C(AZ, AE) have been computed on day to day basis during the periods of their intensifications over the domain 5° N to 25° N, 55° E to 75° E in respect of ‘GONU’ and 5° N to 25° N, 77° E to 97° E for ‘SIDR’. Besides the above, the area averaged value of s (Sigma), the vertically averaged Moist Static Energy (MSE), has also been computed on each day. Day-to-day evolution of these parameters is mapped and described. Some of the distinguishing features in the energetic of these two intense vortices which formed in entirely different climatological settings have been brought out. It is noticed that in the case of ‘GONU’, though both barotropic and baroclinic energy conversions have taken place during the life cycle, the intensification phase is characterized by an enhancement in AE, KE and vertically integrated Moist Static Energy. Enhancement in AE can be attributed to the generation of AE, which may again be attributed to the asymmetric latent heat of condensation associated with the asymmetric rainfall in the cyclone field. Enhancement in KE may be attributed to the enhancement in both barotropic and baroclinic conversion into KE. Though most of these observations made for ‘GONU’ are found to be attributable to ‘SIDR’ as well, the intensification of ‘SIDR’ appears to have more similarity to that of a typical growing mid-latitude baroclinic wave. In this case, the enhancement in AE, could also be attributed to positive C(AZ,AE), which is mainly due to interaction with mid-latitude baroclinic westerly wave. The energetics analysis also indicates that GONU had helped in the enhancement of seasonal mean meridional circulation where as the SIDR had inhibited the enhancement of seasonal mean meridional circulation.

The Performance of Three Exponential Decay Models in Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change After Landfall Over China

In this study, the performance of three exponential decay models in estimating intensity change of tropical cyclones (TCs) after landfall over China is evaluated based on the best-track TC data during 1980–2018. Results indicate that the three models evaluated can reproduce the weakening trend of TCs after landfall, but two of them (M1 and M2) tend to overestimate TC intensity and one (M3) tends to overestimate TC intensity in the first 12 h and underestimate TC intensity afterwards. M2 has the best performance with the smallest errors among the three models within 24 h after landfall. M3 has better performance than M1 in the first 20 h after landfall, but its errors increase largely afterwards. M1 and M2 show systematic positive biases in the southeastern China likely due to the fact that they have not explicitly included any topographic effect. M3 has better performance in the southeastern China, where it was originally attempted, but shows negative biases in the eastern China. The relative contributions of different factors, including landfall intensity, translational speed, 850-hPa moist static energy, and topography, to model errors are examined based on classification analyses. Results indicate that the landfall intensity contributes about 18%, translational speed, moist static energy and topography contribute equally about 15% to the model errors. It is strongly suggested that the TC characteristics and the time-dependent decay constant determined by environmental conditions, topography and land cover properties, should be considered in a good exponential decay model of TC weakening after landfall.

The Connection between Carnot and CAPE Formulations of TC Potential Intensity

Tropical cyclone (TC) potential intensity (PI) theory has a well known form, consistent with a Carnot cycle interpretation of TC energetics, which relates PI to mean environmental conditions: the difference between surface and TC outflow temperatures and the air–sea enthalpy disequilibrium. PI has also been defined as a difference in convective available potential energy (CAPE) between two parcels, and quantitative assessments of future changes make use of a numerical algorithm based on this definition. Here, an analysis shows the conditions under which these Carnot and CAPE-based PI definitions are equivalent. There are multiple conditions, not previously enumerated, which in particular reveal a role for irreversible entropy production from surface evaporation. This mathematical analysis is verified by numerical calculations of PI’s sensitivity to large changes in surface-air relative humidity. To gain physical insight into the connection between the CAPE and Carnot formulations of PI, we use a recently developed analytic theory for CAPE to derive, starting from the CAPE-based definition, a new approximate formula for PI which nearly recovers the previous Carnot PI formula. The derivation shows that the difference in undilute buoyancies of saturated and environmental parcels which determines CAPE PI can in fact be expressed as a difference in the parcels’ surface moist static energy, providing a physical link between the Carnot and CAPE formulations of PI. This combination of analysis and physical interpretation builds confidence in previous numerical CAPE-based PI calculations that use climate model projections of the future tropical environment.

Analysis of different tropospheric energies in the surroundings of the Bay of Bengal during different cyclonic periods

ABSTRACT. Upper-air data of 0000 UTC for standard isobaric surfaces at surface, 850, 700, 500, 400, 300, 200, 150 and 100 hPa levels for the different cyclonic periods in the last decade were considered for study. The dry static energy, the latent heat energy, the moist static energy and the total energy and their vertical distribution were studied in the surroundings of the Bay of Bengal in relation to the movement of the cyclone and their ultimate landfall. The effects of different tropospheric energies considering the pressure as a vertical coordinate are discussed with the help of graphs.

Easterly waves in the East Pacific during the OTREC 2019 field campaign

Easterly waves (EWs) are off-equatorial tropical synoptic disturbances with a westward phase speed between 11-14 m s−1. Over the East Pacific in boreal summer, the combination of EWs and other synoptic disturbances, plus local mechanisms associated with sea surface temperature (SST) gradients, define the climatological structure of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The East Pacific ITCZ has both deep and shallow convection that is linked to deep and shallow meridional circulations, respectively. The deep convection is located around 9°N over warm SSTs. The shallow convection is located around 6°N and is driven by the meridional SST gradient south of the ITCZ. This study aims to document the interaction between East Pacific EWs and the deep and shallow meridional circulations during the Organization of Tropical East Pacific Convection (OTREC) field campaign in 2019 using field campaign observations, ERA5 reanalysis, and satellite precipitation. We identified three EWs during the OTREC period using precipitation and dynamical fields. Composite analysis shows that the convectively active part of the EW enhances ITCZ deep convection and is associated with an export of column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) by vertical advection. The subsequent convectively suppressed, anticyclonic part of the EW produces an increase of moisture and column-integrated MSE by horizontal advection that likely enhances shallow convection and the shallow overturning flow at 850 hPa over the southern part of the ITCZ. Therefore, EWs appear to strongly modulate shallow and deep circulations in the East Pacific ITCZ.

A Diagnostic Model for The Large-Scale Tropical Circulation Based on Moist Static Energy Balance

In this study we present a diagnostic model for the large-scale tropical circulation (vertical motion) based on the moist static energy equation for first baroclinic mode anomalies (MSEB model). The aim of this model is to provide a basis for conceptual understanding of the drivers of the large-scale tropical circulation changes or variations as they are observed or simulated in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase (CMIP) models. The MSEB model is based on previous studies relating vertical motion in the tropics to the driving forces of the tropospheric column heating rate, advection of moisture and heat, and the moist stability of the air columns scaled by the first baroclinic mode. We apply and evaluate the skill of this model on the basis of observations (reanalysis) and CMIP model simulations of the large-scale tropical vertical motion. The model is capable of diagnosing the large-scale pattern of vertical motion of the mean state, annual cycle, interannual variability, model-to-model variations and in warmer climates of climate change scenarios with correlations of 0.6-0.8 and nearly unbiased amplitudes for the whole tropics (30°S-30°N). The skills are generally better over oceans at large scales and worse over land regions. The model also tends to have an upward motion bias at higher latitudes, but still has good correlations in variations even at the higher latitudes. It is further illustrated how the MSEB model can be used to diagnose the sensitivity of the tropical vertical motion to the forcing terms of the models for the mean state, seasonal cycle and interannual variability such as El Nino. The model clearly illustrates how the seasonal cycle in the circulation is driven by the incoming solar radiation and how the El Nino shift in the Walker circulation results mainly from the sea-surface temperature changes. Overall, the model provides a very good diagnostic tool to understand tropical circulation change on larger and longer (>month) time scales.