Modeling and forecasting the influence of social infrastructure development of interregional migration in Russia

At present demographic development of Russia and its regions is one of the most important factors of the country’s economic growth and also is key priority of the state government system. In spite of that, the issues of interregional migration are poorly represented in the strategic planning documents both at the federal and regional level. The major migration-induced population growth can be observed in the federal cities, capital areas and central part of Russia. At the same time in 2019 there was migration loss in 47 subjects of the Russian Federation. In many regions it is combined with the natural population loss aggravating the situation. The emerging closed loop (decreasing attractiveness of the area – migration loss – deteriorating social and economic situation – decreasing attractiveness of the area) results in increasing contradictions. Variety of factors determining the direction and the dynamics of migration flows requires a comprehensive study of these processes. The analysis conducted revealed that the level of development of the territory’s infrastructure is of great significance in this matter. Therefore, this direction is considered to be the main one. For quantification the authors established a complex of individual indicators which were preprocessed and consistently merged into directional integral and later into a single integral indicator of the level of social infrastructure development. Moreover, it is advisable to define five groups of regions according to the degree of their potential’s realization and to consider the affiliation of the subject of the federation to a particular group as an additional factor. Thus, the authors obtained the regression equation which describes the interrelation between the parameters under study. ANOVA revealed the opportunity of its practical application. Based on this model, a scenario forecast for the development of social infrastructure in Russia and its regions has been formed.

Mauritania’s internal migration dynamics and trends in response to rainfall variability and change

The northwest African country of Mauritania is a vast, desert territory, which was historically been dominated by pastoral nomads. Since independence in 1960, the country has witnessed a dramatic sedentarization of its nomadic population, as well as settlements in and movements to urban centers. This vast sedentarization movement coupled with internal and interregional migration has resulted in the growth of Mauritania’s urban population from less than 10 percent of the total population in 1965 to nearly 90 percent in 2013. Factors that have caused this rapid urbanization, include the droughts that spanned the late 1960s through to the early 1980s, and the turbulent transformation of Mauritania’s political economy. The aim of this study is to determine and examine internal migration flows to analyze the relationship between long-term rainfall changes and dynamic spatial demographic shifts in terms of movements toward urban centers. In this regard, we propose an assessment approach that integrates official statistics from the decennial census and rainfall data, with available socioeconomic variables, to characterize interregional migration flows. Our result confirms that rates of interregional migration remain elevated and are expected to increase. In 2013, 702,575 individuals were documented as having participated in interregional migration, comprising 17.5 percent of the total population. In comparison, there were 477,814 individuals, which migrated inter-regionally in 2000, and 208,039 in 1988. These results demonstrate distinct interactions between climate variability and interregional migration in Mauritania throughout the past four decades.

Migration of Young Scientists in the Context of Professional Socialization: Key Trends and Regional Disparities

The article presents generalized materials of the analysis of migration attitudes of young scientists in the context of professional socialization. The key research methods were statistical analysis and a sociological survey conducted in the paradigm of qualitative research among young scientists of the Southern Federal District (n = 15). It is concluded that the migration processes of young scientists are caused by the crisis situation of Russian science. Barriers to professional socialization. It is concluded that the vector of interregional migration is particularly relevant for young scientists in the region. The risks of regional disproportion of the concentration of scientific personnel potential are identified, which have a negative impact both on the territorial and spatial development of the region and on the professional socialization of young scientists

INTERREGIONAL MIGRATION PROCESSES IN RUSSIA BEFORE THE START OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Текст посвящен проблемам обмена населением между регионами России в постсоветский период. Показано, что пятая часть регионов России является бенефициарами от межрегионального обмена населением. Эти регионы по текущим данным Росстата за 28 лет получили из других регионов России более 5 млн. человек миграционным путём. Другие регионы (4/5) – межрегиональные миграционные доноры России, – большинство её окраинных и экономически неблагополучных территорий. После 1991 г. они теряли и продолжают терять население миграционным путём внутри страны. Тенденции межрегионального обмена населением России остаются негативными весь постсоветский период. Они ведут к дисбалансу размещения населения по территории страны, сверхконцентрации населения в первых мегаполисах и оголению геополитически значимых окраин России, прежде всего, Дальнего Востока.

Refugio y remesas: un análisis basado en «El perfil socioeconómico de refugiados en Brasil. Subsidios para el desarrollo de políticas»

Latin American interregional migration has increased dramatically in the past two decades. One of the countries contributing to the growth of these flows is Brazil, whose participation was consolidated due to international factors, its reception and its legal labor policies. Despite this, the relationship between migration, development and remittances remains poorly studied by Brazilian scholars. The discussion presented here focuses on a circumscribed analysis of refugees who had been legally recognized by the Brazilian State by the end of 2018. Thanks to research data on 487 refugees living in Brazil by then, it was possible to analyze their life conditions, the value and regularity of remittances received and/or sent, among other aspects. The results showed that low wages did not prevent refugees, for the most part, from sending remittances abroad nor, for some, from receiving it. Despite its low value, its regularity seems to keep alive the networks and dependency relations between those who migrate and those who remain in the origin countries.

A system of indicators to assess the value of human capital under the influence of interregional migration processes

Subject. This article discusses the issues of human capital accumulation. Objectives. The article aims to develop a system of indicators for assessing the value of human capital, taking into account the impact of interregional migration processes. Methods. For the study, we used the methods of analysis, synthesis, modeling, indicative planning, some mathematical methods, and the systems approach. Results. The article identifies factors that influence the changes in the accumulation and quality of human capital, and it presents developed parameters for assessing regional human capital with thresholds that help classify regions. Relevance. The results of the study can be used by the executive authorities when developing strategic planning documents and regulating migration flows. This will help balance the regional development and reduce the level of differentiation of regions.

ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP OF INVESTMENT AND DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEPRESSED REGIONS

Social and economic spheres of depressed regions develop unfavorably which, in its turn, leads to the negative pace of the national economy development. “Depressed regions” have a higher growth rate of investments in fixed capital per capita than Russian indicators, but the growth of investment does not cause unambiguous changes in the demographic indicators of development. All “depressed regions” are currently characterized by depopulation and a negative balance of interregional migration. Thus, despite the growth of investment, “depressed regions” are characterized by a reduction in labor and demographic potential. The problem of analyzing the relationship between investment and demographic factors in the development of “depressed regions” is not fully studied today, which undoubtedly affects the quality and effectiveness of decisions made by state authorities to overcome the depressive nature of their economies.

Agglomeration economies, congestion diseconomies, and fertility dynamics in a two-region economy

Using a small, open, two-region economy model populated by two-period-lived overlapping generations, we analyze long-term agglomeration economy and congestion diseconomy effects of young worker concentration on migration and the overall fertility rate. When the migration-stability condition is satisfied, the distribution of young workers between regions is obtainable in each period for a predetermined population size. Results show that migration stability does not guarantee dynamic stability of the economy. The stationary population size stability depends on the model parameters and the initial population size. On a stable trajectory converging to the stationary equilibrium, the overall fertility rate might change non-monotonically with the population size of the economy because of interregional migration. In each period, interregional migration mitigates regional population changes caused by fertility differences on the stable path. Results show that the inter-regional migration-stability condition does not guarantee stability of the population dynamics of the economy.