Modeling and forecasting the influence of social infrastructure development of interregional migration in Russia

At present demographic development of Russia and its regions is one of the most important factors of the country’s economic growth and also is key priority of the state government system. In spite of that, the issues of interregional migration are poorly represented in the strategic planning documents both at the federal and regional level. The major migration-induced population growth can be observed in the federal cities, capital areas and central part of Russia. At the same time in 2019 there was migration loss in 47 subjects of the Russian Federation. In many regions it is combined with the natural population loss aggravating the situation. The emerging closed loop (decreasing attractiveness of the area – migration loss – deteriorating social and economic situation – decreasing attractiveness of the area) results in increasing contradictions. Variety of factors determining the direction and the dynamics of migration flows requires a comprehensive study of these processes. The analysis conducted revealed that the level of development of the territory’s infrastructure is of great significance in this matter. Therefore, this direction is considered to be the main one. For quantification the authors established a complex of individual indicators which were preprocessed and consistently merged into directional integral and later into a single integral indicator of the level of social infrastructure development. Moreover, it is advisable to define five groups of regions according to the degree of their potential’s realization and to consider the affiliation of the subject of the federation to a particular group as an additional factor. Thus, the authors obtained the regression equation which describes the interrelation between the parameters under study. ANOVA revealed the opportunity of its practical application. Based on this model, a scenario forecast for the development of social infrastructure in Russia and its regions has been formed.

The Uneven Development of Siberian Regions: Impact on Migration Loss

The article analyzes the impact of the uneven socioeconomic development of the regions of the Siberian Federal District on the migration loss. Using the GRP (gross domestic product) indicator, the author demonstrates significant differences in the level of the socioeconomic development of Siberian regions. The trend towards a decrease in natural increase in Siberia that has emerged in recent years is exacerbated by an increase in migration loss, which has covered a number of regions of the Siberian Federal District. The article contains an overview of modern trends in the field of migration movements, identifies the features of these movements in Siberian regions. On the example of Omsk Oblast, which has demonstrated the most profound migration loss in recent years, the leading factors of influence on migration processes are identified: the fiscal capacity of the region; low wages in the region, the share of the population whose cash income is below the minimum subsistence level; environmental woes; the opportunity of continuing education, obtaining future-oriented professions; conditions for the development of small and medium-sized businesses; the stability of the regional economy; and climatic conditions. Using the methods of quantitative and qualitative analysis, the author assesses the manifestation of each factor in the indicators of migration loss in Siberian regions. The study did not show a direct relationship between the fiscal capacity of the region, the level of wages, and the indicators of migration growth. At the same time, the connection between migration loss and the state support of regions in the educational sphere or the developing assistance to small and medium-sized businesses is more clearly visible. The special role of youth migration is emphasized. The analysis of the identified trends shows that the growing differences between regions will contribute to depopulation trends in some regions and to the loss of complexity in the reproduction of macroregional socioeconomic ties. The author emphasizes that the fiscal capacity of the region should remain the main criterion for federal support, and the state system of budgetary incentives should be implemented in accordance with the needs of the regions and the characteristics of the territorial labor market. In the final part, the measures to improve the spatial strategy of Russia at the present stage are proposed. The idea of macroregional development presented in the strategy should be supplemented by the prescribed mechanisms of interaction between business communities registered in different subjects of the federation, within the framework of promising cluster formations.

THE MAIN TENDENCIES OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION OF CITIES IN THE TRANS-BAIKAL TERRITORY

In this paper, city-status settlements of the Trans-Baikal Territory are considered. The Trans-Baikal Territory is a territorial entity of the Russian Federation located in the south of Asian part of Russia. Cities of the Trans-Baikal Territory are economic and cultural centres of regions; they play an important role in development and support of the surrounding territory. In this paper, demographic, migration, social and economic conditions of the cities are reviewed. The analysis of conditions in cities has been performed on the basis of statistical data collected from the administrations of the cities of the region and other published statistical materials on the basis of a comparative geographical method, as well as a review of the literature. The generality of tendencies in the social and economic situation and regional peculiarities of cities are shown. In all cities of the region there is a decrease in the population. The paper concludes that, by now, the issue of migration loss is the strategically important development problem in the Trans-Baikal Territory.

International migration to an economically lagging EU region: case study of Ukraine and Eastern Slovakia

The research on international migration is usually focused on the most attractive destinations of migrations or areas of origin of migration flows suffering from considerable migration loss. This paper analyses the development and spatial patterns of migration from Ukraine to Slovakia with a special emphasis on Eastern Slovakia, which is employed as a case study of an economically lagging region with significant migration loss. The paper aims to assess if such a lagging region can be an attractive destination for migration from Ukraine, and to what extent migration flows from Ukraine can compensate for its migration loss. By using methods of a statistical analysis based on data from various national and international authorities, field research, and semi-structured interviews, the paper contributes to filling the gap in the research of international migration. Despite the economic lagging behind the western regions, Eastern Slovakia has attracted the majority of migrants from Ukraine to Slovakia. Because the structure of migrants from Ukraine is dominated by well-educated and skilled individuals, who are also culturally close to the domestic population and at the same time well adaptable to a host society, such migration flows are not enough to compensate the massive migration loss of Eastern Slovakia fully but can mitigate its negative consequences including loss of human capital.