Coordinating Human-Robot Teams with Dynamic and Stochastic Task Proficiencies

As robots become ubiquitous in the workforce, it is essential that human-robot collaboration be both intuitive and adaptive. A robot’s ability to coordinate team activities improves based on its ability to infer and reason about the dynamic (i.e., the “learning curve”) and stochastic task performance of its human counterparts. We introduce a novel resource coordination algorithm that enables robots to schedule team activities by (1) actively characterizing the task performance of their human teammates and (2) ensuring the schedule is robust to temporal constraints given this characterization. We first validate our modeling assumptions via user study. From this user study, we create a data-driven prior distribution over human task performance for our virtual and physical evaluations of human-robot teaming. Second, we show that our methods are scalable and produce high-quality schedules. Third, we conduct a between-subjects experiment (n = 90) to assess the effects on a human-robot team of a robot scheduler actively exploring the humans’ task proficiency. Our results indicate that human-robot working alliance ( p\lt 0.001 ) and human performance ( p=0.00359 ) are maximized when the robot dedicates more time to exploring the capabilities of human teammates.

Inferring a Property of a Large System from a Small Number of Samples

Inferring the value of a property of a large stochastic system is a difficult task when the number of samples is insufficient to reliably estimate the probability distribution. The Bayesian estimator of the property of interest requires the knowledge of the prior distribution, and in many situations, it is not clear which prior should be used. Several estimators have been developed so far in which the proposed prior us individually tailored for each property of interest; such is the case, for example, for the entropy, the amount of mutual information, or the correlation between pairs of variables. In this paper, we propose a general framework to select priors that is valid for arbitrary properties. We first demonstrate that only certain aspects of the prior distribution actually affect the inference process. We then expand the sought prior as a linear combination of a one-dimensional family of indexed priors, each of which is obtained through a maximum entropy approach with constrained mean values of the property under study. In many cases of interest, only one or very few components of the expansion turn out to contribute to the Bayesian estimator, so it is often valid to only keep a single component. The relevant component is selected by the data, so no handcrafted priors are required. We test the performance of this approximation with a few paradigmatic examples and show that it performs well in comparison to the ad-hoc methods previously proposed in the literature. Our method highlights the connection between Bayesian inference and equilibrium statistical mechanics, since the most relevant component of the expansion can be argued to be that with the right temperature.

A Random Traffic Assignment Model for Networks Based on Discrete Dynamic Bayesian Algorithms

In this paper, a stochastic traffic assignment model for networks is proposed for the study of discrete dynamic Bayesian algorithms. In this paper, we study a feasible method and theoretical system for implementing traffic engineering in networks based on Bayesian algorithm theory. We study the implementation of traffic assignment engineering in conjunction with the network stochastic model: first, we study the Bayesian algorithm theoretical model of control layer stripping in the network based on the discrete dynamic Bayesian algorithm theory and analyze the resource-sharing mechanism in different queuing rules; second, we study the extraction and evaluation theory of traffic assignment for the global view obtained by the control layer of the network and establish the Bayesian algorithm analysis model based on the traffic assignment; subsequently, the routing of bandwidth guarantee and delay guarantee in the network is studied based on Bayesian algorithm model and Bayesian algorithm network random traffic allocation theory. In this paper, a Bayesian algorithm estimation model based on Bayesian algorithm theory is constructed based on network random observed traffic assignment as input data. The model assumes that the roadway traffic distribution follows the network random principle, and based on this assumption, the likelihood function of the roadway online traffic under the network random condition is derived; the prior distribution of the roadway traffic is derived based on the maximum entropy principle; the posterior distribution of the roadway traffic is solved by combining the likelihood function and the prior distribution. The corresponding algorithm is designed for the model with roadway traffic as input, and the reliability of the algorithm is verified in the arithmetic example.

ANALISIS METODE BAYESIAN PADA SISTEM ANTREAN RAWAT JALAN DI RSUP Dr. KARIADI DENGAN DISTRIBUSI SAMPEL POISSON DAN GEOMETRIK

Hospital service facilities cannot be separated from queuing events. Queues are an unavoidable part of life, but they can be minimized with a good system. The purpose of this study was to find out how the queuing system at Dr. Kariadi. Bayesian method is used to combine previous research and this research in order to obtain new information. The sample distribution and prior distribution obtained from previous studies are combined with the sample likelihood function to obtain a posterior distribution. After calculating the posterior distribution, it was found that the queuing model in the outpatient installation at Dr. Kariadi Semarang is (G/G/c): (GD/∞/∞) where each polyclinic has met steady state conditions and the level of busyness is greater than the unemployment rate so that the queuing system at Dr. Kariadi is categorized as good, except in internal medicine poly.

ANALISIS METODE BAYESIAN MENGGUNAKAN NON-INFORMATIF PRIOR UNIFORM DISKRIT PADA SISTEM ANTREAN PELAYANAN GERBANG TOL MUKTIHARJO

The growth rate of the traffic that is high resulting in congestion on the road network system. One of the government's efforts in addressing the issue with the build highways to reduce congestion, especially in large cities. One of the queuing phenomena that often occurs in the city of Semarang is the queue at the Toll Gate Muktiharjo, that the queue of vehicles coming to make toll payment. This study aims to determine how the service system at the Toll Gate Muktiharjo. This can be known by getting a queue system model and a measure of system performance from the distribution of arrival and service. The distribution of arrival and service are determined by finding the posterior distribution using the Bayesian method. The bayesian method combine the likelihood function of the sample and the prior distribution. The likelihood function is a negative binomial. The prior distribution used a uniform discrete. Based on the calculations and analysis, it can be concluded that the queueing system model at the Toll Gate Muktiharjo is a (Beta/Beta/5):(GD/∞/∞). The queue simulation obtained that the service system Toll Gate Muktiharjo is optimal based on the size of the system performance because busy probability is higher than jobless probability.

Updating Knowledge in The Estimation of The Genetics Parameters Multi-trait and Multi-Environment Bayesian Analysis in Rice (Oryza Sativa L.)

Among the multi-trait models used to jointly study several traits and environments, the Bayesian framework has been a preferable tool for using a more complex and biologically realistic model. In most cases, the non-informative prior distributions are adopted in studies using the Bayesian approach. Still, the Bayesian approach tends to present more accurate estimates when it uses informative prior distributions. The present study was developed to evaluate the efficiency and applicability of multi-trait multi-environment (MTME) models under a Bayesian framework utilizing a strategy for eliciting informative prior distribution using previous data from rice. The study involved data pertained to rice genotypes in three environments and five agricultural years (2010/2011 until 2014/2015) for the following traits: grain yield (GY), flowering in days (FLOR) and plant height (PH). Variance components and genetic and non-genetic parameters were estimated by the Bayesian method. In general, the informative prior distribution in Bayesian MTME models provided higher estimates of heritability and variance components, as well as minor lengths for the highest probability density interval (HPD), compared to their respective non-informative prior distribution analyses. The use of more informative prior distributions makes it possible to detect genetic correlations between traits, which cannot be achieved with the use of non-informative prior distributions. Therefore, this mechanism presented for updating knowledge to the elicitation of an informative prior distribution can be efficiently applied in rice genetic selection.

Inverse parameter estimation to predict material parameters of the Cowper–Symonds constitutive equation in electrohydraulic forming process

The development of a reliable numerical simulation is essential for understanding high-speed forming processes such as electrohydraulic forming (EHF). This numerical model should be created based on the accurate material properties. However, dynamic material properties at strain rates exceeding 1000 s$$^{-1}$$ - 1 cannot be easily obtained through an experimental approach. Thus, this study predicted two material parameters in the Cowper–Symonds constitutive equation based on inverse parameter estimation, such that the parameters predicted using the numerical simulation corresponded well with those obtained from the experimental results. The target material was a 1-mm-thick Al 5052-H32 sheet. The comparison target included the final deformation shape of the sheet in the EHF-free bulging test at three input voltages of 6, 7, and 8 kV. For the inverse parameter estimation, the posterior distribution for the two parameters included a likelihood and a prior distribution. For the likelihood construction, a reduced-order surrogate model was developed in advance to substitute the numerical simulation based on ordinary Kriging and principal component analysis. Moreover, the error distribution of the bulge height between the experiment and reduced-order surrogate model was obtained. The prior distribution at 7 kV was defined as a uniform distribution, and the posterior distribution at 7 kV was employed as a prior distribution at 6, 7, and 8 kV. Furthermore, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling was employed and the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm was adopted to obtain the samples following the posterior distribution. After the autocorrelation calculation for sample independence, the lag with an autocorrelation of $$\pm \,0.02$$ ± 0.02 interval was selected and every lag$$^{\mathrm {th}}$$ th sample was obtained. The total number of acquired samples was $$10^{5}$$ 10 5 , and the mean values were calculated from the obtained samples. Consequently, the numerical simulation with mean values displayed good agreement with the experimental results.

Performance of parametric Bayesian Methods for estimating the survivor function in uncensored data using Monte-Carlo simulation

The paper aimed to investigate the performance of some parametric survivor function estimators based on Bayesian methodology with respect to bias and efficiency. A simulation was conducted based on Mote Carlo experiments with different sample sizes different (10, 30, 50, 75, 100). The bias and variance of mean square Error V(MSE) were selected as the basis of comparison. The methods of estimation used in this study are Maximum Likelihood, Bayesian with exponential as prior distribution and Bayesian with gamma as prior distribution. A Monte Carlo Simulation study showed that the Bayesian method with gamma as prior distribution was the best performance than the other methods. The study recommended that.

On Reliability Estimation of Lomax Distribution under Adaptive Type-I Progressive Hybrid Censoring Scheme

Bayesian estimates involve the selection of hyper-parameters in the prior distribution. To deal with this issue, the empirical Bayesian and E-Bayesian estimates may be used to overcome this problem. The first one uses the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) procedure to decide the hyper-parameters; while the second one uses the expectation of the Bayesian estimate taken over the joint prior distribution of the hyper-parameters. This study focuses on establishing the E-Bayesian estimates for the Lomax distribution shape parameter functions by utilizing the Gamma prior of the unknown shape parameter along with three distinctive joint priors of Gamma hyper-parameters based on the square error as well as two asymmetric loss functions. These two asymmetric loss functions include a general entropy and LINEX loss functions. To investigate the effect of the hyper-parameters’ selections, mathematical propositions have been derived for the E-Bayesian estimates of the three shape functions that comprise the identity, reliability and hazard rate functions. Monte Carlo simulation has been performed to compare nine E-Bayesian, three empirical Bayesian and Bayesian estimates and MLEs for any aforementioned functions. Additionally, one simulated and two real data sets from industry life test and medical study are applied for the illustrative purpose. Concluding notes are provided at the end.

On Johnson’s “Sufficientness” Postulates for Feature-Sampling Models

In the 1920s, the English philosopher W.E. Johnson introduced a characterization of the symmetric Dirichlet prior distribution in terms of its predictive distribution. This is typically referred to as Johnson’s “sufficientness” postulate, and it has been the subject of many contributions in Bayesian statistics, leading to predictive characterization for infinite-dimensional generalizations of the Dirichlet distribution, i.e., species-sampling models. In this paper, we review “sufficientness” postulates for species-sampling models, and then investigate analogous predictive characterizations for the more general feature-sampling models. In particular, we present a “sufficientness” postulate for a class of feature-sampling models referred to as Scaled Processes (SPs), and then discuss analogous characterizations in the general setup of feature-sampling models.