Analysis of weekly rainfall of different period during rainy season over Safdarjung airport of Delhi for 20th century – A study on trend, decile and decadal analysis

The analysis of weekly rainfall and of different period during rainy season of Safdarjang airport using techniques like trend and decile have been attempted. Decadal analysis is also attempted to see any changes during the entire period. Rainy season is defined as rainfall received from week no. 23rd to 38th. Weekly rainfall data for period 1901 to 2000 is utilized for this location. As week is a shorter period to analyze rainfall for the season groups of different periods consisting of 4 weeks such as 1-4 as ‘A’, 5-8 as ‘B’ and so on up to ‘D’ is formed. For study of progressive season combination of groups such as ‘A+B’, A+B+C and ‘A+B+C+D’ are also subjected to analysis as done for weekly as well for group. The average weekly rainfall distribution indicates very high positive value of coefficient of correlation (0.94) significant at 1% level. The coefficient variation (C.V.) of weekly average rainfall shows consistency from decade 5th to 8th and 10th. Profile of average C.V. of weekly rainfall for 100 years shows consistency from week 4 to 11. Week no. 8 shows peak of rainfall. Overall decile analysis of weekly rainfall shows increasing tendency from week no. 1 to 8 for all deciles and then decreasing tendency from week no. 9 on words for all decile values. Trend analysis of group ‘C’ shows significant positive tendency with correlation as +0.20 significant at 5% level. However trend analysis of deciles of all groups shows very high C.C. around +0.95 at 1% level. Trend analysis of combination of groups shows positive trend for A+B+C and for A+B+C+D with a C.C. of 0.25 and 0.20 at 5% level. Trend of deciles for these groups also shows very high C.C. values around +0.95 at 1% level. Average, excess and deficient rainfall seen at Safdarjung airport is 5th, 7th and 4th decile with values as 594, 708 and 472 mm respectively. Analysis of two halves of century, viz., 1901-50 and 1951-2000 shows no significant trend.

ANALISIS RISIKO USAHATANI JERUK PAMELO (Kasus di Desa Tambakmas Kecamatan Sukomoro Kabupaten Magetan)

Jawa Timur merupakan provinsi penghasil jeruk pamelo terbesar kedua di Indonesia, setelah Sulawesi Selatan (Pangkajene dan Kepulauan). Produksi jeruk pamelo berfluktuasi, yang mengindikasikan adanya risiko produksi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi sumber-sumber risiko produksi pada jeruk pamelo, tingkat risiko produksi dan merekomendasikan alternatif penanganan risiko jeruk pamelo. Penelitian dilakukan di Desa Tambakmas Kecamatan Sukomoro Kabupaten Magetan. Penarikan sampel menggunakan metode simple random sampling dengan jumlah petani sebanyak 50 orang. Metode analisis data menggunakan analisis variance, standard deviation dan coefficient variation. Sumber risiko dianalisis dengan skala likert 1-5 dan dianalisis secara statistik deskriptif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa petani mempersepsikan sumber risiko yang paling tinggi adalah kerusakan akibat serangan hama dan penyakit, ketergantungan pada cuaca dan musim dan kurangnya curah hujan/kekeringan. Jumlah expected return berdasarkan produksi sebanyak 6.739,55 buah dengan tingkat risiko sebesar 0,64 artinya tingkat risiko yang dihadapi sebesar 64%. Nilai expected return berdasarkan penerimaan adalah sebesar Rp33.589.163,87 Penanganan yang dilakukan untuk mengurangi risiko adalah pengendalian hama dan penyakit dan pemeliharaan secara intensif seperti sanitasi kebun, pemeriksaan berkala buah yang terkena hama dan penyiraman.

Investigating the Predictability of Photovoltaic Power Using Approximate Entropy

The predictability concept of Photovoltaic (PV) power on the time series was presented and the approximate entropy algorithm and predictable coefficient were used to quantificationally analyze the predictability of PV power on time series, then the approximate entropy and predictable coefficient variation at different spatial scale were analyzed. Finally, the measured data of a PV plant in western Ningxia were used for testing and confirming the result. The results of several typical prediction methods show that the proposed method can effectively characterize the predictability of PV power on time series.

Low Quality of Warfarin Therapy is Associated With Female Gender but Not With Polypharmacy in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

Background: We examined the impact of polypharmacy on the quality of the anticoagulation therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation. We also examined the factors that affect the stability of warfarin therapy.Methods and Results: This retrospective study was conducted using data from 157 consecutive outpatients with atrial fibrillation in a single tertiary referral hospital. Patients who were prescribed warfarin continuously and for whom PT-INR was examined at least three times in a year were included in this study. We examined the quality of warfarin therapy using time in the therapeutic INR range (TTR), percentage of PT-INR determinations in range (PINRR), and the coefficient variation (CV) of PT-INR. We found that the number of prescribed medicines was significantly associated with high BMI and low eGFR, but not with TTR, PINRR, and the coefficient variation of PT-INR in patients with atrial fibrillation. We also found that female gender was independently associated with low PINRR in this study population.Conclusion: Polypharmacy did not deteriorate the quality of warfarin therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation treated in the tertiary referral hospital. Female gender was an independent predictor of the low quality of warfarin therapy.

INFLUENCE OF COEFFICIENT VARIATION ON THE VALUE OPTIMAL LEVEL OF MAINTENANCE

Complex technical objects in modern society are extremely important. Such objects belong to the class of recoverable objects of long-term repeated use. They tend to be expensive and costly to operate. To ensure the required level of reliability during their operation, maintenance is usually carried out, the essence of which is the timely preventive replacement of elements that are in a pre-failure state. A characteristic feature of complex technical objects for special purposes is the presence in their composition of a large number (tens, hundreds of thousands) of different types of component parts that have different levels of reliability, different patterns of their wear and tear processes. This feature requires a more subtle approach to the organization and planning of maintenance during their operation. The problem is that during the development of such facilities, all issues related to maintainability and maintenance should be addressed already at the early stages of facility design. If you do not provide in advance the necessary hardware and software for the built-in monitoring of technical condition (TC) of the object, do not develop and “build” the maintenance technology into the object, then it will not be possible to realize in the future a possible gain in the reliability of object due to maintenance. Since all these issues must be resolved at the stage of object creation (when the object does not yet exist), mathematical models of the maintenance process are needed, with the help of which it would be possible to calculate the possible gain in the level of reliability of facility due to maintenance, to estimate the cost costs required for this. Then, based on such calculations, make a decision on the need for maintenance for this type of objects and, if such a decision is made, develop structure of the maintenance system, choose the most acceptable maintenance strategy, and determine its optimal parameters. In this paper, we study the influence of the coefficient variation on value of the optimal level of maintenance. The work also confirms the general idea that the smaller value of the coefficient variation of random operating time to failure of the serviced elements, greater optimal value of maintenance level should be.

Risiko Usahatani Mangga di Kecamatan Rembang Jawa Tengah

Production fluctuation are an indication of production risk. Kragan District is one of the largest producers of mango in Rembang Regency. The production of mangoes produced by Kragan Subdistrict is still relatively low so this research aims to measure the level of risk, find out the factors that influence production and find out the factors that influence the risk of mango production in the Kragan Subdistrict. The object of this study was 31 mango farmers. The measure to calculate the level of risk is the standard deviation and the coefficient variation. The magnitude of the effect of the use of inputs on production risk is analyzed using multiple linear regression with the heteroscedastic method. The results of the calculation of production risk were analyzed using standard deviation and coefficient variation (KV) and having a standard deviation of 66.87 and the coefficient variation is 0.84, this shows that the high chance of production risk in conducting mango farming by 84 percent. Factors that significantly affect the production of mangoes in Kragan Subdistrict are the number of mango trees, organic fertilizers and inorganic fertilizers while the factors that significantly influence the risk of mango production are the number of trees and labor.

Analisis Usaha Industri Caping Bambu Skala Rumah Tangga di Kabupaten Magetan

This study purpose to find out the cost, revenue, profit, profitability, efficiency, and business risk of bamboo caping home industry in Magetan Regency. The basic method used in this research was descriptive. The determination of the sample area was purposive. The determination of respondents was done by purposive sampling. The result of the research shows the average total cost by craftsmen in Magetan Regency is IDRi7,091,977.00/month, blengker IDR 288,513.00/month, halusan-kasaran woven IDR 195,838.00/month, kepangan woven IDR 229,286.00/month and gilikan IDR 6,803,464.00/month. The average revenue by craftmen is IDR 9,217,160.00/month, blengker IDR 382,160.00/month, halusan-kasaran woven IDR 422,750.00/month, kepangan woven IDR 454,400.00/month and gilikan IDR 8,835,000.00/month so that the average profit is IDR 226,912.00/month, blengker IDR 93,647.00/month, halusan-kasaran woven IDR 226,912.00/month, kepangan woven IDR 225,114.00/month and gilikan IDR 2,031,536.00/month. Profitability is 30%, blengker 32,5%, halusan-kasaran woven 115,9%, kepangan woven 98,2%, and gilikan 29,9%. R/C ratio more than 1, that is 1,30 blengker 1,32; halusan-kasaran woven 2,16; kepangan woven 1,98 and gilikan 1,30 mean its efficient. The coefficient variation more than 0,5 that is halusan-kasaran woven 0,51; and kepangan woven 0,55 and the low profit limit (L) is less than 0, so the bamboo caping industry is at risk.

Molecular and morphological characterization of EMS-induced chili pepper mutants resistant to Chili veinal mottle virus

Manzila I, Priyatno TP, Nugroho K, Terryana RT, Lestari P, Hidayat SH. 2020. Molecular and morphological characterization of EMS-induced chili pepper mutants resistant to Chili veinal mottle virus. Biodiversitas 21: 1448-1457. Chili veinal mottle virus (ChiVMV) is a major prevalent virus that potentially reduces the yield of chili pepper by more than 50% in Indonesia. Therefore, the development of a ChiVMV-resistant cultivar is necessary to ensure satisfactory chili pepper production. Mutation breeding is a promising tool available to produce virus-resistant plants via the induction of new alleles due to point mutations within the existing chili germplasm. This research was conducted to assess the genetic variation of ten promising (M6) EMS-induced mutant lines of chili pepper (Capsicum annuum L.) potentially resistant to ChiVMV by their morphological characteristics and SSR profile, as well as identify potential mutants based on agronomic traits. The ten chili pepper mutant lines used in the present study were derived from the shoot tips of a Gelora cultivar treated with 0.5% ethyl methanesulfonate (EMS) as a chemical mutagen. The performance of the respective promising chili pepper mutant lines both at a molecular and morphological level was observed. Phenotypic analysis showed that all the promising chili pepper mutant lines underwent significant morphological changes. Of these, the phenotype coefficient variation (PCV) values were higher than the genotype coefficient variation (GCV) values for all the traits observed. High heritability (h2) was found for the canopy area, length of the fruit stalk, fruit weight, fruit weight per plant, thick fruit flesh, leaf width, leaf length, and fruit storage duration. A total of 52 alleles were detected from the five polymorphic SSR loci with 5.2 average alleles/loci. A dendrogram was generated and revealed two groups with five mutants clustered separately from their parents which could be valuable for further improvement.