Conclusions: Towards a Bayesian Modelling Process

In the concluding chapter we summarise the theoretical, methodological and practical outcomes of the model-based process of scientific enquiry presented in the book, against the wider background of recent developments in demography and population studies. We offer a critical self-reflection on further potential and on limitations of Bayesian model-based approaches, alongside the lessons learned from the modelling exercise discussed throughout this book. As concluding thoughts, we suggest potential ways forward for statistically-embedded model-based computational social studies, including an assessment of the future viability of the wider model-based research programme, and its possible contributions to policy and decision making.

A Conceptual Framework for Biointelligent Production—Calling for Systemic Life Cycle Thinking in Cellular Units

A sustainable design of production systems is essential for the future viability of the economy. In this context, biointelligent production systems (BIS) are currently considered one of the most innovative paths for a comprehensive reorientation of existing industrial patterns. BIS are intended to enable a highly localized on-demand production of personalized goods via stand-alone non-expert systems. Recent studies in this field have primarily adopted a technical perspective; this paper addresses the larger picture by discussing the essential issues of integrated production system design. Following a normative logic, we introduce the basic principle of systemic life cycle thinking in cellular units as the foundation of a management framework for BIS. Thereupon, we develop a coherent theoretical model of a future decentralized production system and derive perspectives for future research and development in key areas of management.

Hydrological Characteristics of the Te Hapua Wetland Complex:The Potential Influence of Groundwater Level, Bore Abstraction and Climate Change on Wetland Surface Water Levels

<p>Te Hapua is a complex of small, privately owned wetlands approximately 60 km northwest of Wellington. The wetlands represent a large portion of the region's remaining palustrine swamps, which have been reduced to just 1% of the pre-1900 expanse. Whilst many land owners have opted to protect wetlands on their land with covenants, questions have been raised regarding potential threats stemming from the wider region. Firstly, some regional groundwater level records have shown significant decline in the 10 to 25 years they have been monitored. The reason for this is unclear. Wetlands are commonly associated with groundwater discharge, so a decline in groundwater level could adversely affect wetland water input. Secondly, estimated groundwater resources are currently just 8% allocated, so there is potential for a 92% increase in groundwater abstraction from aquifers that underlie the wetlands. Finally, predictions of future climate change indicate changes in rainfall quantity and intensity. This would likely alter the hydrological cycle, impacting on rainfall dependant ecosystems such as wetlands as well as groundwater recharge. Whilst previous ecological surveys at Te Hapua provide valuable information on biodiversity and ecological threat, there has been no detailed study of the hydrology of the wetlands. An understanding of the relationship between the surface water of the wetlands and the aquifers that underlie the area is important when considering the future viability of the wetlands. This study aims to define the local hydrology and assess the potential threat of 'long term' groundwater level decline, increased groundwater abstraction and predicted climate change. Eleven months of water level data was supplied by Wellington Regional Council for three newly constructed Te Hapua wetland surface water and adjacent shallow groundwater monitoring sites. The data were analysed in terms of their relative water levels and response to rainfall. A basic water balance was calculated using the data from the monitoring sites and a GIS analysis of elevation data mapped the wetlands and their watersheds. A survey of 21 individual wetlands was carried out to gather water quality and water regime data to enable an assessment of wetland class. Historical groundwater level trends and geological records were analysed in the context of potential threat to the wetlands posed by a decline in groundwater level. Climate change predictions for the Kapiti Coast were reviewed and discussed in the context of possible changes to the hydrological cycle and to wetlands. Results from the wetland survey indicated that there are two distinct bands of wetlands at Te Hapua. Fens are found mostly in the eastern band and are more likely to be discharge wetlands, some of which are ephemeral. Swamps are found mostly in the western band and are more likely to be recharge wetlands. Dominant water input to fens is via local rainfall and local through-flow of shallow groundwater, especially from surrounding dunes. The eastern band of wetlands is typified by higher dunes and hence has greater input from shallow groundwater than wetlands in the western band. Dominant water input to swamps is via local rainfall, runoff, and through-flow from the immediate watershed and adjacent wetlands. Overall, the future viability of the Te Hapua wetland complex appears promising. Historical groundwater declines appear to be minimal and show signs of reversing. Abstraction from deep aquifers is not likely to impact on wetland water levels. Climate change is likely to have an impact on the hydrological cycle and may increase pressure on some areas, especially ephemeral wetlands. The effect of climate change on groundwater level is more difficult to forecast, but may lower water level in the long term.</p>

Hydrological Characteristics of the Te Hapua Wetland Complex:The Potential Influence of Groundwater Level, Bore Abstraction and Climate Change on Wetland Surface Water Levels

<p>Te Hapua is a complex of small, privately owned wetlands approximately 60 km northwest of Wellington. The wetlands represent a large portion of the region's remaining palustrine swamps, which have been reduced to just 1% of the pre-1900 expanse. Whilst many land owners have opted to protect wetlands on their land with covenants, questions have been raised regarding potential threats stemming from the wider region. Firstly, some regional groundwater level records have shown significant decline in the 10 to 25 years they have been monitored. The reason for this is unclear. Wetlands are commonly associated with groundwater discharge, so a decline in groundwater level could adversely affect wetland water input. Secondly, estimated groundwater resources are currently just 8% allocated, so there is potential for a 92% increase in groundwater abstraction from aquifers that underlie the wetlands. Finally, predictions of future climate change indicate changes in rainfall quantity and intensity. This would likely alter the hydrological cycle, impacting on rainfall dependant ecosystems such as wetlands as well as groundwater recharge. Whilst previous ecological surveys at Te Hapua provide valuable information on biodiversity and ecological threat, there has been no detailed study of the hydrology of the wetlands. An understanding of the relationship between the surface water of the wetlands and the aquifers that underlie the area is important when considering the future viability of the wetlands. This study aims to define the local hydrology and assess the potential threat of 'long term' groundwater level decline, increased groundwater abstraction and predicted climate change. Eleven months of water level data was supplied by Wellington Regional Council for three newly constructed Te Hapua wetland surface water and adjacent shallow groundwater monitoring sites. The data were analysed in terms of their relative water levels and response to rainfall. A basic water balance was calculated using the data from the monitoring sites and a GIS analysis of elevation data mapped the wetlands and their watersheds. A survey of 21 individual wetlands was carried out to gather water quality and water regime data to enable an assessment of wetland class. Historical groundwater level trends and geological records were analysed in the context of potential threat to the wetlands posed by a decline in groundwater level. Climate change predictions for the Kapiti Coast were reviewed and discussed in the context of possible changes to the hydrological cycle and to wetlands. Results from the wetland survey indicated that there are two distinct bands of wetlands at Te Hapua. Fens are found mostly in the eastern band and are more likely to be discharge wetlands, some of which are ephemeral. Swamps are found mostly in the western band and are more likely to be recharge wetlands. Dominant water input to fens is via local rainfall and local through-flow of shallow groundwater, especially from surrounding dunes. The eastern band of wetlands is typified by higher dunes and hence has greater input from shallow groundwater than wetlands in the western band. Dominant water input to swamps is via local rainfall, runoff, and through-flow from the immediate watershed and adjacent wetlands. Overall, the future viability of the Te Hapua wetland complex appears promising. Historical groundwater declines appear to be minimal and show signs of reversing. Abstraction from deep aquifers is not likely to impact on wetland water levels. Climate change is likely to have an impact on the hydrological cycle and may increase pressure on some areas, especially ephemeral wetlands. The effect of climate change on groundwater level is more difficult to forecast, but may lower water level in the long term.</p>

The Myth of Social Capital in Development of Small and Medium Enterprises: A Case Study of Handloom Industry at Peshawar Valley

The purpose of this study is to analyze the role of social capital in development of small and medium enterprises in Peshawar Valley. Relational capital such as business relational capital and social relational capital is used as tools of social capital. Firm performance is measured using attributes like profitability and future viability. A cross sectional, descriptive and analytical research design is adopted using a representative sample of 169 manufacturing weavers. Data is collected using a self-administered questionnaire. The findings reveal a significant and positive relationship between relational capitals, firm performance. It is recommended that investment in social capital improves firm performance with a positive impact on wellbeing of overall community. Therefore, managers should intensify initiatives to encourage greater understanding and acceptance on relational capital elements, employ a viable relational capital composition that includes building strong social relational ties with the community and government and pay attention to customers and employees in order to identify their needs and provide them with optimal values. This is likely to increase firm performance and development the small and medium enterprises.

Conservation biology of the critically endangered salamander, Paradactylodon persicus gorganensis (Clergue-Gazeau & Thorn, 1979) (Amphibia: Hynobiidae) in northeastern Iran

Paradactylodon persicus gorganensis is a critically endangered salamander found in northeastern Iran which faces increasing major anthropogenic threats such as agriculture, industry and mining. The aim of the current study is to identify key environmental variables associated with the species’ presence. Also, measuring and comparing the water quality parameters in habitats where P. p. gorganensis is present and absent are the other aims of the study. The results indicate that high pH and dissolved oxygen values have a negative effect on the species’ presence, while its presence was strongly correlated with low mean water temperatures. The species’ range in response to the climate change will shift to the south and east, where areas of high elevation occur, because the species favors cold habitats. This study indicates that it will be particularly important to evaluate the whole range where P. p. gorganensis exists when preparing conservation action plans. It is recommended that ex-situ conservation programs are incorporated into conservation planning for the species, because the number of individuals in the wild is so low and their future viability is fragile.

Market Behavior in the Face of Political Violence: Evidence from Tsarist Russia

Even efficient financial markets may break down under periods of prolonged stress, especially when the ramification of an event is unclear. Political violence is such an event, sending immediate signals about possible impact on firm valuations but unclear information about the future viability of existing institutions. This paper examines the effect of political violence in 19th century Russia on its stock market; using a battery of unit root and variance ratio tests, the evidence is that Russian financial markets were mostly efficient in processing short-term information from political violence. However, when violence was at its peak between the assassination of the Tsar in 1881 and the 1905 revolution, large deviations from efficiency can be detected, as markets were unsure about the viability of the existing rules of the game.

Przewalski’s Horses (Equus ferus przewalskii) Responses to Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Flights under Semireserve Conditions: Conservation Implication

Recent technological innovations have led to an upsurge in the availability of unmanned aerial vehicles (also known as drones and hereafter referred to as UAVs)—aircraft remotely operated from the ground—which are increasingly popular tools for ecological research, and the question of this study concerns the extent to which wildlife responses might allow aerial wildlife monitoring (AWM) by UAVs. Our experiment tests the hypothesis that the wildlife-UAVs interaction depends strongly on flight altitude that there may be a lowest altitude range for which the ungulates are not exceedingly disturbed, dictating a practically achievable level of discernibility in flight observation, for this question might influence the future viability of the UAVs in the study and protection of the other wildlife in China’s semiarid ecosystem. We examined the behavioral responses of a group of enclosed Przewalski’s horses (Equus ferus przewalskii) to the presence of different in-flight UAVs models by conducting flights at altitudes ranging from 1 to 52 meters and recorded the heights at which each horse reacted to (noticed and fled) the UAVs. All horses exhibited a stress response to UAVs flights as evidenced by running away. The results suggest strong correlations between flight altitude and response across the different subjects that adults generally noticed the UAVs at the larger heights (20.58 ± 10.46 m) than the immature (4.67 ± 0.87 m). Meanwhile, reaction heights of females (15.85 ± 6.01 m) are smaller than that of males (26.85 ± 18.52 m). Supported by their biological roles in herds (e.g., males must give protection to his entire herd while females are purely responsible for their offspring), our results also show that age, closely followed by gender, are the two most significant elements that determine a horse’s level of alertness to the UAVs. This research will help future scientists to better gauge the appropriate height to use a drone for animal observation in order to minimize disturbance and best preserve their natural behavior.

Management Going Concern Disclosure, Mitigation Plan, and Failure Prediction - Implications from ASU 2014-15

The going concern (GC) assumption forms the basis for preparing financial statements unless liquidation becomes imminent. ASU 2014-15 requires management to evaluate GC uncertainties quarterly and provide disclosures in the notes. I compare management GC disclosures between the pre-standard and post-standard regimes. I find that the market reacts negatively to substantial doubt in GC only after ASU 2014-15. Next, I find the effect of ASU 2014-15 for quarterly reports, but not annual reports. More importantly, by employing detailed textual analysis to extract and categorize mitigation-plan discussions, I show that certain types of management mitigation plans are interpreted more positively by investors after ASU 2014-15, thereby alleviating the negative market reaction. These plans include issuing debt, debt restructuring, increasing revenue, and selling assets. Finally, I demonstrate that management GC conclusions are more indicative of corporate failures after ASU 2014-15 and that mitigation-plan discussions are associated with firms' future viability.

High altitude hunting, climate change, and pastoral resilience in eastern Eurasia

The transition from hunting to herding transformed the cold, arid steppes of Mongolia and Eastern Eurasia into a key social and economic center of the ancient world, but a fragmentary archaeological record limits our understanding of the subsistence base for early pastoral societies in this key region. Organic material preserved in high mountain ice provides rare snapshots into the use of alpine and high altitude zones, which played a central role in the emergence of East Asian pastoralism. Here, we present the results of the first archaeological survey of melting ice margins in the Altai Mountains of western Mongolia, revealing a near-continuous record of more than 3500 years of human activity. Osteology, radiocarbon dating, and collagen fingerprinting analysis of wooden projectiles, animal bone, and other artifacts indicate that big-game hunting and exploitation of alpine ice played a significant role during the emergence of mobile pastoralism in the Altai, and remained a core element of pastoral adaptation into the modern era. Extensive ice melting and loss of wildlife in the study area over recent decades, driven by a warming climate, poaching, and poorly regulated hunting, presents an urgent threat to the future viability of herding lifeways and the archaeological record of hunting in montane zones.