Epidemiological models based on meteorological variables to forewarn Alternaria blight of rapeseed-mustard

Alternaria blight [Alternaria brassicae (Berk.) Sacc.] is one of the most widespread and harmful maladies of rapeseed-mustard, causing yield loss up to 47 per cent. Meteorological parameters especially temperature, relative humidity and bright sunshine hours play major role in the development of Alternaria blight disease. Infection by the pathogen is highly influenced by meteorological conditions. A well-tested model based on meteorological variables is an efficient tool for forewarning this disease. Epidemiology of Alternaria blight of brassicas was investigated based on long term data during 2003-2018 crop seasons on the disease severity and meteorological variables, which was validated with data for two subsequent years. During this study, meteorological variable-based regression model of forewarning was developed for maximum severity (%) of Alternaria blight on leaves and pods for three locations viz., New Delhi, Hisar (Haryana) and Mohanpur (West Bengal)] in India. Validation of the forewarning models for maximum severity (%) of Alternaria blight proved the efficiency of the targeted forecasts.

Comparing Health Gains, Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of 100s of Interventions in Australia and New Zealand: An Online Interactive League Table

Background This study compares the health gains, costs, and cost-effectiveness of hundreds of Australian and New Zealand (NZ) health interventions conducted with comparable methods in an online interactive league table designed to inform policy. Methods A literature review was conducted to identify peer-reviewed evaluations (2010 to 2018) arising from the Australia Cost-Effectiveness (ACE) research and NZ Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness (BODE3) Programmes, or using similar methodology, with: health gains quantified as health-adjusted life years (HALYs); net health system costs and/or incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; time horizon of at least 10 years; and 3–5% discount rates. Results We identified 384 evaluations that met the inclusion criteria, covering 14 intervention domains: alcohol; cancer; cannabis; communicable disease; cardiovascular disease; diabetes; diet; injury; mental illness; other non-communicable disease; overweight and obesity; physical inactivity; salt; tobacco. There were large variations in health gain across evaluations: 33.9% gained less than 0.1 HALYs per 1000 people in the total population over the remainder of their lifespan, through to 13.0% gaining >10 HALYs per 1000 people. Over a third (38.8%) of evaluations were cost-saving. Conclusions League tables of comparably conducted evaluations illustrate the large health gain (and cost) variations per capita between interventions, in addition to cost-effectiveness. Further work can test the utility of this league table with policy makers and researchers.

Use of Physical Accessibility Modelling in Diagnostic Network Optimization: A Review

Diagnostic networks are complex systems that include both laboratory-tested and community-based diagnostics, as well as a specimen referral system that links health tiers. Since diagnostics are the first step before accessing appropriate care, diagnostic network optimization (DNO) is crucial to improving the overall healthcare system. The aim of our review was to understand whether the field of DNO, and especially route optimization, has benefited from the recent advances in geospatial modeling, and notably physical accessibility modeling, that have been used in numerous health systems assessment and strengthening studies. All publications published in English between the journal’s inception and 12 August 2021 that dealt with DNO, geographical accessibility and optimization, were systematically searched for in Web of Science and PubMed, this search was complemented by a snowball search. Studies from any country were considered. Seven relevant publications were selected and charted, with a variety of geospatial approaches used for optimization. This paucity of publications calls for exploring the linkage of DNO procedures with realistic accessibility modeling framework. The potential benefits could be notably better-informed travel times of either the specimens or population, better estimates of the demand for diagnostics through realistic population catchments, and innovative ways of considering disease epidemiology to inform DNO.

Effect of Cultivars and Temperature on Synergistic Interaction Between Panicum Mosaic Virus and Satellite Panicum Mosaic Virus in Switchgrass

Panicum mosaic virus (PMV), the type species of the genus Panicovirus in the family Tombusviridae, naturally infects switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.). PMV and its molecular partner, satellite panicum mosaic virus (SPMV), interact synergistically in co-infected millets with exacerbated disease phenotype and increased accumulation of PMV, compared to plants infected only by PMV. In this study, we examined the reaction of switchgrass cvs. Summer and Kanlow to PMV and PMV+SPMV infections at 24°C and 32°C. Switchgrass cv. Summer was susceptible to PMV at both temperatures. In contrast, cv. Kanlow was tolerant to PMV at 24°C but not at 32°C, suggesting that Kanlow harbors temperature-sensitive resistance against PMV. At 24°C, PMV was readily detected in inoculated leaves but not in upper non-inoculated leaves of Kanlow, suggesting that resistance to PMV was likely mediated by abrogation of long-distance virus transport. Co-infection by PMV and SPMV at 24°C and 32°C in cv. Summer but not in Kanlow caused increased symptomatic systemic infection and mild disease synergism with slightly increased PMV accumulation compared to plants infected only by PMV. These data suggest that the interaction between PMV and SPMV in switchgrass is cultivar dependent, manifested in Summer but not in Kanlow. However, co-inoculation of cv. Kanlow by PMV+SPMV caused an enhanced asymptomatic infection, suggesting a role for SPMV in enhancing symptomless infection in a tolerant cultivar. These data suggest that enhanced asymptomatic infections in virus-tolerant switchgrass cultivar could serve as a source for virus spread and play an important role in panicum mosaic disease epidemiology under field conditions. Our data revealed that cultivars, co-infection with SPMV, and temperature influenced the severity of symptoms elicited by PMV in switchgrass.

Geographical Distribution and Genetic Diversity of the Banana Fusarium Wilt Fungus in Laos and Vietnam

Fusarium wilt, caused by the fungus Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense (Foc), poses a major threat to global banana production. The tropical race 4 (TR4) variant of Foc is a highly virulent form with a large host range, and severely affects Cavendish bananas. Foc TR4 was recently observed within the Greater Mekong Subregion, after Chinese private companies expanded Cavendish production to the region. In this study, extensive surveys conducted across Laos and Vietnam show that Foc TR4 is still mainly constricted to the northern regions of these countries and is limited to Cavendish cultivation settings. In Laos, Foc TR4 is associated with large-scale Cavendish plantations owned by or involved with Chinese companies through which infected planting material could have been imported. In Vietnam, mostly small-holder Cavendish farmers and backyard gardens were affected by Foc TR4. In Vietnam, no direct link is found with Chinese growers, and it is expected the pathogen mainly spreads through local and regional movement of infected planting materials. Foc TR4 was not recorded on banana cultivars other than Cavendish. The extensively cultivated ‘Pisang Awak’ cultivar was solely infected by VCGs belonging to Foc race 1 and 2, with a high occurrence of VCG 0123 across Laos, and of VCG 0124/5 in Vietnam. Substantial diversity of Foc VCGs was recorded (VCGs 0123, 0124/5, 01218 and 01221) from northern to southern regions in both countries, suggesting that Fusarium wilt is well established in the region. Interviews with farmers indicated that the local knowledge of Fusarium wilt epidemiology and options for disease management was limited. Clear communication efforts on disease epidemiology and management with emphasis on biosecurity practices need to be improved in order to prevent further spread of Foc TR4 to mixed variety smallholder settings.

An Optimal Control Experiment for an SEIRS Epidemiological Model

This work studies an optimal control model for a discrete-time Susceptible/Exposed/Infective/Removed/Susceptible (SEIRS) deterministic epidemiological model with a finite time horizon and changing population. The model presented converts a continuous SEIRS model that would typically be solved using differential equations into a discrete model that can be solved using dynamic programming. The discrete approach more closely resembles real life situations, as the number of individuals in a population, the rate of vaccination to be applied, and the time steps are all discrete values. The model utilizes a previously developed algorithm and applies it to the presented SEIRS model. To demonstrate the applicability of the algorithm, a series of numerical results are presented for various parameter values. KEYWORDS: Control; Cost; Discrete; Disease; Epidemiology; Minimization; Modeling; Optimality; SEIRS; Vaccination

Alteração da função renal em pacientes com Hipertensão Arterial Sistêmica: prevalência e fatores associados

Objetivo: Identificar a alteração da Taxa de Filtração Glomerular estimada (TFGe) e os fatores associados em pacientes com Hipertensão Arterial Sistêmica. Métodos: Estudo transversal, retrospectivo, realizado através de prontuários de 280 pacientes hipertensos internados em um Hospital da região da Zona da Mata de Minas Gerais, entre janeiro de 2020 e março de 2021. Foi realizado o cálculo da TFGe através da equação desenvolvida pelo Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI). Dividiu-se os pacientes em dois grupos, com e sem alteração da taxa de filtração glomerular sendo avaliados os fatores relacionados à cada um destes. Resultados: Do total de participantes, 27,86% apresentaram TFGe alterada, sendo o padrão do paciente hipertenso com maior risco de desenvolver DRC caracterizado como: homem, branco, com 60 anos ou mais de idade. Conclusão: A prevalência de alteração da TFGe em hipertensos é alta, e tem como fator associado: Diabetes Mellitus, distúrbios hidroeletrolíticos e maior dificuldade em controlar a pressão arterial.

Sugarcane Smut: Current Knowledge and the Way Forward for Management

Whip smut of sugarcane is the most serious and widely spread disease of sugarcane and causes a significant reduction in cane quantity and quality. The severity of this disease often depends on the pathogen races, environmental conditions, cultivar genotype and the interaction among these three factors. Under optimum climatic conditions, this disease has the potential to cause total crop failure. Resistance screening is an ongoing process due to the variability among smut pathogen isolates. Multiple races and mutation ability of smut pathogen makes the breeding task more complex. A number of studies on various aspects of the disease epidemiology and management have been published. Due to many overlapping characteristics within the species complex, there is a dearth of information on early detection and strategies to control the smut pathogen. Furthermore, there is a need to coordinate these findings to expedite its research and control. In this paper, we summarize the disease etiology, especially disease impact on the qualitative and quantitative parameters of sugarcane. We also gathered research progress on molecular-based detection and available information on genetic variability in S. scitamineum. The research on the set of management options needed to effectively cope with the disease are reviewed herein. The present review is expected to be helpful for the further investigation on smut resistance in sugarcane.

ASPECTOS EPIDEMIOLÓGICOS DA DOENÇA RENAL CRÔNICA

A doença renal crônica é caracterizada pela perda progressiva e irreversível da função renal. Os principais fatores contribuintes para o desenvolvimento da doença são doenças já apresentam altos índices de acometimentos, como; a diabetes mellitus e a hipertensão arterial. Com isso cada vez mais a doença tem se desenvolvido, e chegando a seu estágio final, o qual vem a necessitar de uma terapia renal substitutiva, tendo a hemodiálise como a terapia mais utilizada. No entanto a doença não apresenta cura, e seu tratamento é considerado desgastante, o qual muitas vezes trás diversas consequências na vida dos pacientes. Com isso o presente estudo teve como objetivo realizar uma revisão narrativa sobre os índices epidemiológicos que envolvem a doença, realizando uma busca através dos descritores “chronic kidney disease" "epidemiology", nas plataformas SCIELO, LILASC e PUBMED. No total foram selecionados 12 estudos, pelos quais foi possível mostrar os a prevalência e incidência da doença, os índices de morbidade e mortalidade, bem como as condições das medidas de prevenção promoção da saúde. Considerações finais; A doença renal crônica apresenta altos índices, aumentando a carga global da doença, entretanto medidas de prevenção e promoção à saúde podem ser úteis para a redução desses números, porém ainda se faz necessário que a mesma seja empregada em maior escala, e de forma efetiva.

Religious Service Attendance and Mortality among Adults in the United States with Chronic Kidney Disease

Religion and related institutions have resources to help individuals cope with chronic conditions, such as chronic kidney disease (CKD). The purpose of this investigation is to examine the association between religious service attendance and mortality for adults with CKD. Data were drawn from NHANES III linked to the 2015 public use Mortality File to analyze a sample of adults (n = 3558) who had CKD as defined by a single value of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation and/or albumin-to-creatinine ratio ≥17 mg/g for males or ≥25 for females. All-cause mortality was the primary outcome and religious service attendance was the primary independent variable. Cox proportional hazards models were estimated to determine the association between religious service attendance and mortality. The mortality risks for participants who attended a service at least once per week were 21% lower than their peers with CKD who did not attend a religious service at all (HR 0.79; CI 0.64–0.98). The association between religious service attendance and mortality in adults with CKD suggest that prospective studies are needed to examine the influence of faith-related behaviors on clinical outcomes in patients with CKD.