Discovering Rational Heuristics for Risky Choice

For computationally limited agents such as humans, perfectly rational decision-making is almost always out of reach. Instead, people may rely on computationally frugal heuristics that usually yield good outcomes. Although previous research has identified many such heuristics, discovering good heuristics and predicting when they will be used remains challenging. Here, we present a machine learning method that identifies the best heuristics to use in any given situation. To demonstrate the generalizability and accuracy of our method, we compare the strategies it discovers against those used by people across a wide range of multi-alternative risky choice environments in a behavioral experiment that is an order of magnitude larger than any previous experiments of its type. Our method rediscovered known heuristics, identifying them as rational strategies for specific environments, and discovered novel heuristics that had been previously overlooked. Our results show that people adapt their decision strategies to the structure of the environment and generally make good use of their limited cognitive resources, although they tend to collect too little information and their strategy choices do not always fully exploit the structure of the environment.

Developing a Theoretical Framework for Processing the Negative Information in Social Media

The author explores the fundamental aspects of the rational decision-making process with the aim of understanding that negative information has the possibility to distort processing of political information. This article further develops a theoretical framework of the relationship between negative information on social media and its receiver. This article conducts an empirical analysis to partially prove this framework with the Twitter texts spread by the Internet Research Agency (IRA). This analysis indicates that: (1) tweets containing negative information had more interaction than tweets containing positive information; (2) tweets containing anger-inducing content had more interaction than tweets containing fearful content. These results suggest that negative emotion would have a more significant effect on this process, and different negative emotions can have a distinct effect on information processing.

Personal Values & Decision-Making Biases

Decision-making is understood to be influenced by genetic and environmental factors related to need, as are personal values. Personal values are a component of personality known to influence decision-making in agreement with the circular structure of the Schwartz (1992) system. We set out to explore whether personal values also exert complementary linear patterns of influence on heuristics and performance in fluid intelligence and creativity tests. Such patterns are predicted by an evolutionary theory that proposes the influence of values described by Schwartz (1992) evolve sequentially and incrementally in living systems, internalising the schema of a pre-existing system of universal equivalents. Testing N=1317 individuals with challenges derived from Kahneman and Tversky and others, we found values exerted both circular and linear influences on intuitive and rational decision-making. These were apparent in overall value/response correlation patterns, and in the performance of individuals allocated to linear, values-based, quasi-Maslowian (1943) motivational types. Performance in fluid intelligence and creativity tests most strongly betrayed linear, developmental patterns of influence. In relation to a Bayesian inference challenge, tentative support was also forthcoming for the hypothesis that those most likely to be subject to values-related conflicts would be most likely to avoid giving erroneous intuitive responses by engaging rational system 2 thinking (Stanovich & West, 2000). This suggests values may also play a role in mediating between rational and irrational systems of thinking. These findings extend our understanding of the role values play in individual decision-making, and by extension, their importance in organizational and societal decision-making.

Documentary Practices of Hospital Librarians in Evidence-based Medicine: the Example of Health Technology Assessment in Swedish Healthcare

Today’s healthcare rely on a basis of evidence-based medicine (EBM) and in modern healthcare there are demands for rational decision-making about new methods, technology and treatments. HTA (Health Technology Assessment) supports decision-making in healthcare and in this study we turn to documentary practices of hospital librarians in HTA, as well as how documentary practices shape and are shaped by the work and roles of hospital librarians. Five central documentary practices were identified as initial searching, negotiating a search strategy, the main searching, making a selection, and documenting the search process. These practices construct the work and roles of hospital librarians through different documents, for example formal guidelines for systematic reviews and various tools used for searching, selecting and documenting the search process.

Agricultural drought : Assessment & monitoring

Drought is a creeping natural disaster with long lasting effects on ecology as well as economy. Monitoring and assessment of drought is a very critical component of the drought management strategy aimed at mitigation of its adverse impacts. Spatial extent, intensity and duration of drought related information is essentially needed for taking the choicest rational decision making in the field of agriculture. Satellite remote sensing enables deriving indicators that explain the prevalence, severity, persistence and spatial extent of the area affected by drought. New satellite missions coupled with novel information extraction techniques are opening new vistas towards monitoring and assessment of drought. Aspects related to agricultural drought are discussed in this paper.

Diversity Interventions in the Classroom: From Resistance to Action

The diversity intervention-resistance to action model is presented along with interviews of biology faculty undertaken to understand how resistance to implementing diversity-enhancing classroom interventions manifests at four specific input points within a rational decision-making process that too often results in inaction.

Do People Trust in Robot-Assisted Surgery? Evidence from Europe

(1) Background: The goal of the paper was to establish the factors that influence how people feel about having a medical operation performed on them by a robot. (2) Methods: Data were obtained from a 2017 Flash Eurobarometer (number 460) of the European Commission with 27,901 citizens aged 15 years and over in the 28 countries of the European Union. Logistic regression (odds ratios, OR) to model the predictors of trust in robot-assisted surgery was calculated through motivational factors, using experience and sociodemographic independent variables. (3) Results: The results obtained indicate that, as the experience of using robots increases, the predictive coefficients related to information, attitude, and perception of robots become more negative. Furthermore, sociodemographic variables played an important predictive role. The effect of experience on trust in robots for surgical interventions was greater among men, people between 40 and 54 years old, and those with higher educational levels. (4) Conclusions: The results show that trust in robots goes beyond rational decision-making, since the final decision about whether it should be a robot that performs a complex procedure like a surgical intervention depends almost exclusively on the patient’s wishes.

Formation of the demand for contraceptives using the Van Westendorp method based on establishing consumer value

One of the main indicators of the consumer value of a product is the price. Its controversial idealistic and materialistic basis is aimed at securing the interests of two opposites: producer-seller and buyer. Correctly made pricing decisions, taking into account the requirements of both players in the pharmaceutical market, will effectively regulate the processes of the pharmaceutical business and the supply system. The aim: approbation of the Van Westendorp method on the example of contraceptives; establishing their consumer value for further rational decision-making regarding the improvement of the system for providing contraceptives to Ukrainian female consumers. Materials and methods. The research used the marketing Van Westendorp method based on surveying a quota sample of women of reproductive age from one of the Ukrainian regions. The main calculations were performed with MS Excel 2010 software. Results. The survey of 420 women enabled to set the maximum range of readiness to pay (the point of maximum cheapness and high cost) for the most advanced pharmaceutical types of contraception (hormonal, non-hormonal and medical products) in the age and income quotas. It was established that the price sensitivity depends on social and economic indicators. Conclusions. The established maximal ranges of willingness to pay are well below market prices for contraceptives. The exception is cheap and widespread contraception (aerosol and male condom), which confirms the need to use marketing research methods to meet the needs of the female consumer.