Temperature, carbon dioxide and methane

1) Globally-representative monthly rates of change of atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane are compared with global rates of change of sea ice and with Arctic and Antarctic air temperatures. 2) Carbon dioxide is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the carbon dioxide rate at Mauna Loa lagging sea ice extent rate by 7 months. 3) Methane is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the global (and Mauna Loa) methane rate lagging sea ice extent rate by 5 months. 4) Sea ice melt rate peaks in very tight synchrony with temperature in each Hemisphere. 5) The very high synchrony of the two gases is most parsimoniously explained by a common causality acting in both Hemispheres. 6) Time lags between variables indicate primary drivers of the gas dynamics are due to solar action on the polar regions, not mid-latitudes as is conventionally believed. 7) Results are consistent with a proposed role of a high-latitude temperature-dependent abiotic variable such as sea ice in the annual cycles of carbon dioxide and methane. 8) If sea ice does not drive the net flux of these gases, it is a highly precise proxy for whatever does. 9) Potential mechanisms should be investigated urgently.

Demographic future of Russia in the UN forecasts: "scientific foresight" and reality

The article provides a brief history of the emergence of demographic forecasts, shows their use by the United Nations, the range of countries for which forecasts were made and are being drawn up, considers demographic forecasts that were carried out during the Soviet era and provides a detailed analysis of demographic forecasts for Russia. In contrast to the forecasts of the population of the Soviet Union as a whole, for Russia they initially began to focus on the downward dynamics. It is concluded that over two decades (1996-2015) in countries with a predominance of the Slavic ethnos (excluding the former republics of Yugoslavia), the population as a whole has decreased to 95.5%, while in countries with a predominance of the Anglo-Saxon ethnos — it increased to 123.8%. The forecasts given in the article are compared with the actual size of the population that has already taken place. Everywhere in countries with a predominance of the Slavic ethnos, the actual population is higher than the predicted, and in countries with a predominance of the Anglo-Saxon ethnos, on the contrary. Comparing the forecasts with the actual population dynamics, the conclusion is substantiated about a noticeable change in the ratio between the two groups of countries united by ethnicity, a decrease in the demographic potential of the Slavic group and its increase in the group with a predominance of the Anglo-Saxon ethnos. In the final part of the work, it is said that the presented rates of change in the population size in 35 years and then in another 50 years, arising from the UN demographic forecasts for 2050 and 2100, as well as the demographic dynamics in the 90s of the twentieth century and in the first 15 years of the new century, indicate that if Russia, like other Slavic countries do not make radical efforts and, accordingly, do not consistently take effective measures to change the demographic trends, then the same thing can happen to Russia as has happened in different centuries to many countries such as Assyria, the Hunnic Empire, etc. The current geopolitical situation in which Russia is, its status as a great power, the country's largest territory in the world, favorable geographical position and colossal natural resources, dictate the need to increase its economic, defense and, naturally, demographic potential.

Accelerated mass loss of Himalayan glaciers since the Little Ice Age

Himalayan glaciers are undergoing rapid mass loss but rates of contemporary change lack long-term (centennial-scale) context. Here, we reconstruct the extent and surfaces of 14,798 Himalayan glaciers during the Little Ice Age (LIA), 400 to 700 years ago. We show that they have lost at least 40 % of their LIA area and between 390 and 586 km3 of ice; 0.92 to 1.38 mm Sea Level Equivalent. The long-term rate of ice mass loss since the LIA has been between − 0.011 and − 0.020 m w.e./year, which is an order of magnitude lower than contemporary rates reported in the literature. Rates of mass loss depend on monsoon influence and orographic effects, with the fastest losses measured in East Nepal and in Bhutan north of the main divide. Locally, rates of loss were enhanced with the presence of surface debris cover (by 2 times vs clean-ice) and/or a proglacial lake (by 2.5 times vs land-terminating). The ten-fold acceleration in ice loss we have observed across the Himalaya far exceeds any centennial-scale rates of change that have been recorded elsewhere in the world.

Attenuation of antibody titres during 3-6 months after the second dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine depends on sex, with age and smoking as risk factors for lower antibody titres at 6 months

ABSTRACTObjectiveWe aimed to determine antibody titres at 6 months and their rate of change during 3-6 months after the second dose of the BNT162b2 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mRNA vaccine (Pfizer/BioNTech) and to explore clinical variables associated with titres in Japan.MethodsWe enrolled 365 healthcare workers (250 women, 115 men) whose 3-month antibody titres were analyzed in our previous study and whose blood samples were collected 183 ± 15 days after the second dose. Participant characteristics collected previously were used. The relationships of these factors with antibody titres at 6 months and rates of change in antibody titres during 3-6 months were analyzed.ResultsMedian age was 44 years. Median antibody titre at 6 months was 539 U/mL. Older participants had significantly lower antibody titres (20s, 752 U/mL; 60s–70s, 365 U/mL). In age-adjusted analysis, smoking was the only factor associated with lower antibody titres. Median rate of change in antibody titres during 3-6 months was −29.4%. The only factor significantly associated with the rate of change in Ab titres was not age or smoking, but sex (women, −31.6%; men, −25.1%).ConclusionThe most important factors associated with lower antibody titres at 6 months were age and smoking, as at 3 months, probably reflecting their effect on peak antibody titres. However, antibody titres significantly attenuated during 3-6 months in women alone, which reduced the sex difference in antibody titres seen during the first 3 months. Antibody titres may be affected by different factors at different time points.

Lorenz and Lotka-Volterra Equations Using MATLAB Resolution

In Mathematics, a differential equation is an equation that relates one or more functions and their derivatives. In applications, the functions generally represent physical quantities, the derivatives represent their rates of change, and the differential equation defines a relationship between the two. Such relations are common; therefore, differential equations play a prominent role in many disciplines including engineering, physics, economics, and biology.Mainly the study of differential equations consists of the study of their solutions, and of the properties of their solutions.Only the simplest differential equations are solvable by explicit formulas; however, many properties of solutions of a given differential equation may be determined without computing them exactly.In our report, we are interested by the resolution of two differential equations, the famous Lorenz dynamic system which was developped to understand the chaotic character of meteorology, and the Predator prey model.In the folowwing report, we are going to resolve these equations in order to understand their meanings using Matlab, but first of all, we should introduce each problem, then develop and explain both mathematical and numerical issues, our main goal is to resolve these systems with an adequate Matlab formulation, using the ode45 function and finally we should discuss the results.

Risk factors for microcystic macular oedema in glaucoma

Background/aimsTo identify clinical characteristics and factors associated with microcystic macular edema (MME) in patients with primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG).MethodsWe included 315 POAG eyes between 2010 and 2019 with good-quality macular volume scans that had reliable visual fields (VF) available within 6 months in this observational retrospective cohort study. Eyes with retinal pathologies except for epiretinal membrane (ERM) were excluded. The inner nuclear layer was qualitatively assessed for the presence of MME. Global mean deviation (MD) and Visual Field Index (VFI) decay rates, superior and inferior MD rates and pointwise total deviation rates of change were estimated with linear regression. Logistic regression was performed to identify baseline factors associated with the presence of MME and to determine whether MME is associated with progressive VF loss.Results25 out of 315 eyes (7.9%) demonstrated MME. The average (±SD) age and MD in eyes with and without MME was 57.2 (±8.7) versus 62.0 (±9.9) years (p=0.02) and −9.8 (±5.7) versus −4.9 (±5.3) dB (p<0.001), respectively. Worse global MD at baseline (p=0.001) and younger age (p=0.02) were associated with presence of MME. ERM was not associated with the presence of MME (p=0.84) in this cohort. MME was not associated with MD and VFI decay rates (p>0.49).ConclusionsMore severe glaucoma and younger age were associated with MME. MME was not associated with faster global VF decay in this cohort. MME may confound monitoring of glaucoma with full macular thickness.

Synthesis of MAX-phases, structure and phase composition of modified layers on titanium alloy VT-1 as a result of electron-beam treatment

The article presents the results of research and identification of optimal conditions of formation of MAX-phases during treatment of titanium alloy VT-1 by an electron beam in a vacuum. The study of strength characteristics, thermal properties of composite layers was carried out. Thermodynamic study of phase equilibrium in Ti-Si-C and Ti-B-C systems under high vacuum conditions was carried out in order to optimize conditions of formation of functional layers. A mathematical model of the thermal impact of a powerful fast-moving electron beam on the surface of a titanium alloy has been developed VT-1 under the conditions of electron beam processing in the framework of the theory of thermal conductivity using the COMSOL Multiphysics software complex. The obtained numerical results made it possible to investigate the regularity of the distribution of temperatures and their rates of change depending on the action of the electron beam.

Education, Financial Stress, and Trajectory of Mental Health During the COVID-19 Pandemic

In this preregistered study, we examined educational disparities in the trajectory of mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic and whether such educational disparities would be mediated by financial stress associated with the pandemic. Data were drawn from the Love in the Time of COVID project ( N = 2,204; four waves collected between March and June 2020). Results suggested educational disparities in eudaimonic well-being, negative affect, and psychological distress and showed significant associations between lower education and worse mental-health outcomes at baseline. However, education did not amplify mental-health disparities over time and exhibited no associations with the rates of change in mental health. Financial stress mediated the associations between education and mental health at baseline, and there were no temporal variations in the mediation effect. These results highlight persistent educational disparities in mental health, and such educational disparities may be partially explained by financial stress associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Tempo and Mode in Cultural Macroevolution

Evolutionary scientists studying social and cultural evolution have proposed a multitude of mechanisms by which cultural change can be effected. In this article we discuss two influential ideas from the theory of biological evolution that can inform this debate: the contrast between the micro- and macro-evolution, and the distinction between the tempo and mode of evolution. We add the empirical depth to these ideas by summarizing recent results from the analyses of data on past societies in Seshat: Global History Databank. Our review of these results suggests that the tempo (rates of change, including their acceleration and deceleration) of cultural macroevolution is characterized by periods of apparent stasis interspersed by rapid change. Furthermore, when we focus on large-scale changes in cultural traits of whole groups, the most important macroevolutionary mode involves inter-polity interactions, including competition and warfare, but also cultural exchange and selective imitation; mechanisms that are key components of cultural multilevel selection (CMLS) theory.

Rate of craniometric change following suture release in patients with metopic and sagittal craniosynostosis

OBJECTIVE Craniosynostosis is a congenital disorder resulting from the premature fusion of cranial sutures in the infant skull. This condition results in significant cosmetic deformity and can impede neurodevelopment, if left untreated. Currently, rates of craniometric change following minimally invasive surgery have only been examined for sagittal craniosynostosis. A better understanding of postoperative skull adaptations in other craniosynostosis subtypes is needed to objectively categorize surgical outcomes and guide length of cranial orthosis therapy. METHODS Eleven patients with sagittal and 8 with metopic craniosynostosis treated using endoscopic strip craniectomy and postoperative helmet orthoses were retrospectively reviewed. Using semiautomated image analysis of top-down orthogonal 2D photographs, the following craniometrics were recorded before surgery and at postoperative visits: cephalic index (CI), cranial vault asymmetry index (CVAI), anterior arc angle (AAA), posterior arc angle (PAA), anterior-middle width ratio (AMWR), anterior-posterior width ratio (APWR), left-right height ratio (LRHR), sagittal Hu moment (Sag-Hu), and brachycephaly Hu moment (Brachy-Hu). These craniometrics were then normalized to photograph-based measurements of normocephalic patients and the rates of change between metopic and sagittal craniosynostoses were compared. RESULTS Patients with sagittal craniosynostosis exhibited significantly lower CI, lower PAA, higher AMWR, higher APWR, lower Sag-Hu, and higher Brachy-Hu preoperatively compared to patients with normocephalic craniosynostosis. Patients with metopic craniosynostosis exhibited lower AAA and AMWR preoperatively compared to normocephalic subjects. Sagittal and metopic patients had a rapid initial change in normalized CI or AAA, respectively. Craniometric rates of change that significantly differed between metopic and sagittal patients were found in AAA (p < 0.001), AMWR (p < 0.001), and APWR (p < 0.0001). Metopic patients had a prolonged AAA change with a significantly different rate of change up to 6 months postoperatively (median at 3 months = 0.027 normalized units/day, median at 6 months = 0.017 normalized units/day, and median at > 6 months = 0.007 normalized units/day), while sagittal CI rate of change at these time points was not significantly different. CONCLUSIONS Patients with metopic craniosynostosis have a prolonged rate of change compared to patients with sagittal craniosynostosis and may benefit from longer helmet use and extended postoperative follow-up. Categorizing craniometric changes for other craniosynostosis subtypes will be important for evaluating current treatment guidelines.